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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    You've got your years wrong. The rule change was announced in March 2014 (largely in reaction to the Biogenesis suspensions of 2013). Santanta was suspended in April 2015.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe that's an argument for playing Suzuki less frequently? By acquiring someone like Susac?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    And I am saying, that kind of discrepancy isn't unusual for a small sample. Napoli, Freeman, and Goldschmidt all have similarly large discrepancies over both 2014 and 2015.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Sample size? Just eyeballing your link and mike's, Chris Carter and Mike Napoli have a similar overall vs men-on-base split right now. Others perhaps too (Freddie Freeman has a big jump with men on base too, just coming from a higher starting point). EDIT TO ADD: Looking closer, 7 guys on that list have a larger positive differential than the worst negative differential -- the above mentioned four, plus Goldschmidt, Solarte (he's playing 1B?!), and Encarnacion. Average differential over all 29 guys is +16 in wRC+. Given that we're talking men on base samples less than 100 PA for most of these guys, I don't know that you can or should try to explain away the differences.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I presume that if they make the postseason, they can go down to a 4 man rotation with the extra off days. So Santana may not need a replacement at that point.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Another phrasing would be, Suzuki's career .689 OPS (and starting history) would be a big upgrade over Herrmann's career .536 OPS (and no MLB history as a regular) as backup/insurance.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    "Very attractive" in that someone might take him off our hands and pay his remaining salary, but at this point, it's doubtful anyone would surrender much in the way of a meaningful prospect to rent Pelfrey for 2 months. Much like how the Dodgers gave up three guys for Nolasco two years ago, all 3 of which were DFA'd within a year, I think. If we're anywhere near contention, and Pelfrey is still managing decent results, he will probably be more useful to us in August and September than as deadline trade bait.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think teams can drug test players on their own, that's all handled through the collective bargaining agreement.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I can't speak for the original poster, but I don't think all rule breakers are equal cheaters. Unless Eddie Rosario was trying to gain a competitive advantage by being more "mellow."
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes to your parenthetical question, I was thinking the same thing. Although it's possible the technical language of the rule includes any games scheduled after the conclusion of the 162 game regular season.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Why aren't fans allowed to vote for pitchers? Seems strange, especially now that they employ all sorts of mechanisms for selecting alternates anyway (so no problem if fans elect the SP who pitched two days earlier). You don't have to have each fan fill a 10 or 12-man staff this way, but I see no harm in letting fans vote for one SP and one RP from each league, just like they do for the starting 9. Then take the top 3 vote-getters from each category and fill in the rest like they do with alternates and bench players.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, did postseason games previously count toward suspension time served? That seemed to be the case for Melky Cabrera in 2012, so that might be an additional change with the new rule. And that too levels the field among those suspended for PED use -- why should Melky Cabrera become eligible to return in October 2012 (and thus be eligible for opening day 2013), but a player suspended on the same day from a non-playoff team have to wait upwards of a month into the following season?
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Have you confirmed that somewhere? I've only seen it referenced as postseason play (which would presumably include the new wild-card game, but not a Twins 2008-2009 style tiebreaker), although it's possibly that the technical language of the rule is different.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The Peterson situation was completely different. MLB's PED policy is quite open and clear -- it simply includes a ban on any potential postseason participation that year.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think September 1st is so obvious a solution, though. What about a player who fails a test on June 10th and is not eligible to return until, say, Sep. 2nd -- should he be penalized more than a player who fails on June 8th? And for that matter, should the player who fails June 8th be unable to contest the suspension lest he risk his postseason eligibility? With this new rule, MLB is simply treating a failed test in the offseason or early season the same as a failed test mid- to late-season. Maybe a full calendar year suspension would be more elegant, but that's not for MLB to impose without MLBPA consent. If the first time suspension is going to be less than a year, I think the current rule is necessary.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I could see Arcia staying down for a bit, but I don't know why they'd suddenly recall Vargas. They didn't send him down because of interleague, he was already spending a lot of time on the bench the preceding week.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    They can certainly option Arcia to AAA any time they want this season. In fact, they did something similar last May -- they had him do his ~20 days in AAA for rehab, then they activated and optioned him in one move, before recalling him a couple weeks later. (And since he was only on optional assignment for ~10 days, they didn't burn an option year on him in 2014, so he still has one remaining.)
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd like to see the Metrodome spontaneously combust. And after that, Target Field could fall prey to a bizarre gardening accident.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. I still have vivid memories of Phil Nevin, Jason Tyner, and Lew Ford getting postseason starts at DH. (Plus Kubel and Cuddyer getting thrown into such roles as rookies after barely a September call-up.) We're obviously not near the postseason right now, but the longer you wait to try finding a permanent DH solution, the greater likelihood that you won't ever find one. Now, I might be cool with it if the ultimate solution was likely Hunter (or Mauer), but I don't think we're trending that way. The last two weeks, 11 games in AL parks, Hunter has only 3 DH games and Mauer 1. Escobar 3, Nunez 2, Santana 1 -- all starts that could have easily gone to Vargas (who tallied only 1 DH start in that time) or Pinto, at least until Arcia returns. I fear we're heading into the inexplicable "keeping the DH spot open for Hunter once or twice a week" territory. Which isn't exactly made better with more DH starts for Escobar and Nunez, likely ~85 OPS+ utility players.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Base runs aficionados: any idea where to see base run records for previous seasons? Looks like Fangraphs only has them for the current season. Would be interested to see historical data on them.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It should be noted that none of these records are predictions or projections, no more than reporting a player's first two months stats in various forms. Even the Fangraphs page that lists these records does not directly extrapolate anything from them: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=BaseRuns The Fangraphs rest of season projected standings are listed separately, and in the Twins case, are largely unchanged due to the first two months. Rest of season is still basically preseason projection and neutral luck over the remaining games, which is then added to current record (including any good/bad luck to date) to get the current full season projected record. The Twins rest of season projected winning percentage (.454) is virtually identical to their preseason projected winning percentage (.457). Interestingly, based mostly on the first two months luck, we now have a 22% chance at the playoffs, a big increase over the 5% preseason chance.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That's the second time he's gone over 60 pitches in an outing this year. Don't know what that means about their plan for him this year -- could he be an option in long relief?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Without this rule, though, you get some really sticky situations, like in 2012 when Melky Cabrera technically became eligible to return during the postseason. The Giants simply decided not to activate him. I am guessing most teams appreciate not having to make such a decision anymore. Or in 2013 when Jhonny Peralta missed the last two months of the season but was back just in time for the playoffs. In that case, the Tigers welcomed him back, but not at his previous position where he had already been replaced. And now that the first-time penalty is 80 games rather than 50, this issue is going to crop up even more. Maybe the postseason eligibility cut-off should be when postseason rosters are technically in place, on September 1st, although that might invite some edge case controversy. It could effectively force some players to accept the suspension rather than appeal just to meet the deadline, etc. (Actually I think that was at play in Peralta's quick resolution of his Biogenesis suspension.) I really see no problem with the current version of the rule -- no real gray area involved.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Once you have 5 years MLB service time, you can't be optioned without your consent anyway. So "options" effectively do not apply to Duensing, Boyer, and Stauffer. Fien has an option year left if we wanted to use it. Outside of Rule 5'er Graham, the remaining relievers currently on the 40-man roster have already been optioned this year and can thus be sent up and down freely for the remainder of the season. According to the Twins Daily org chart, Oliveros would also have an option remaining if we wanted to add him to 40-man roster.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Why would anyone give a reliever bonuses for 15-27 appearances?
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