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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Pressly also has a career 0.7 leverage index. He's been facing RHB in mostly mop-up situations. I'm all for trying him out in more important spots, but not THAT important, without a net. (And again, their one LHB was due up second.) BTW, Perkins had a .278 OBP against RHB last year.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. Just throwing names out there. Hopefully you are right about the mid June thing. Should they send him up to AAA like Correa soon?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I tend to agree. Just like they don't like to mess with their opening day roster for a month or two, I think they don't like to mess with a winning club midseason. Although if Hicks indeed stays and Schafer is shipped out, that is a good sign -- not sure it would apply to Buxton skipping a level, though, especially if there isn't another Schafer-level performer to replace. But between Arcia, Vargas, Hunter, and the DH spot (not to mention Hicks), none of whom offer a great all-around game yet, it shouldn't be too hard to fit Buxton in.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    No, no, no. You don't limit a guy with the expectation that his usage will be critical in the next two games. The Twins had one game out of their previous 5 where the closer was even necessary. (That said, you don't FORCE him to pitch two innings -- if he scuffles a bit, you can pull him after one. But if he is on, you let him pitch two, and deal with the next two games as needed.)
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    There are important innings, and then there are IMPORTANT INNINGS. A tie game on the road going into extra innings (against the division leader) is the latter, I think. The nature of it being a tie and in extra innings basically meant that there was no safety net (or at least, much less than your average 6th-8th inning relief appearance) -- you don't want to pull a guy after just 1 or 2 batters. Previously this year, Molitor had brought in Pressly 3 of 4 times with a 5+ run lead/deficit. The other appearance was trailing by 1 run in the 9th -- that's not a bad spot to test him. Twice Pressly has been brought in during the 4th and 5th innings this year -- I think Molitor was looking at him as a long man last night, which isn't a bad thing to have, but I'd rather use my rested relief ace first.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed. And I'm not trying to criticize Molitor, who indeed is a modest upgrade over Gardenhire in these regards (liked the earlier Perkins 8th inning use) -- just tempering expectations that we're going to see much evidence of this upgrade in lineups, pitcher usage, roster construction, etc. I think that part of the package is probably fairly set for Molitor or any MLB manager. The place for upgrades is shifts, baserunning, specific player tweaking/coaching, and perhaps clubhouse attitude/demeanor, especially after 4 losing seasons.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana doesn't necessarily push out our 5th best starter, if that starter is named Nolasco. (And Santana may not be better than everyone else either, he had a 94 ERA+ last season and might be rusty from his layoff?)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't dump him, but Arcia is currently on track to get a multi-million salary as soon as this offseason. I actually doubt you could get a big haul of prospects for him right now -- his MLB performance to date looks a lot like Dayan Viciedo. 30 HR potential isn't all that desirable in that kind of a package (low AVG/OBP, bad corner defense), no matter the age/salary. He's going to have to perform to keep his job this summer.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Honest question: was Perkins warming up last night, and when? Presumably he was getting loose in the bottom of the 8th / top of the 9th (and/or the top of the 10th) in case we took a lead. If he's already loose/warm, you might as well use him first, right?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Detroit's nine spot hitter is sporting a .349 AVG. That lefty due up second in the 10th inning was the only lefty hitter in the Detroit lineup. And he stroked a 2B off Pressly and scored the winning run. And once someone reached base (2nd base no less, so no DP opportunity), 3 hitter Cabrera was due to hit that inning anyway (with a runner in scoring position, as it worked out). Plus, in a tie game after 2 days rest, you have to be thinking multiple innings for Perkins. Do you want him facing 9-1-2-3-4-5 and likely 6 if someone reaches base, including the .349 AVG nine hitter and lefty leadoff batter, or 3-4-5-6-7-8 with all RHB including the backup infielder and catcher?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    You don't see what difference it might make, using your best relief pitcher before using Ryan Pressly? If Perkins can go 2 innings, and Boyer contributes his same 2 innings, you don't need the likes of Pressly until the 12th inning. (And that's not considering the hot hand of Thompson either.)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. Correa is also about 9 months younger. (Holy cow, just noticed Correa had 24 XBH including 7 HR in 29 games at AA! That's even better than any calendar month from Bryant, albeit a couple more of Bryant's went over the fence.) Addison Russell is another guy from that draft (#11 overall), only a month younger than Buxton, missed time last year but got most of his PA at AA, so he was able to start 2015 at AAA and quickly ascend to MLB.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    At first, I got it -- get Escobar some reps, especially as he was beginning to hit at the time. But he's been the regular LF for almost two weeks now, dating back even before Arcia's injury. And as you say, last night it made zero sense with Rosario available, after an off day, and vs a RHP (with a LHP due to start tonight).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    I've seen lists of teams and the number of times they've employed the shift before. Is that data available (and updated) anywhere publicly for the 2015 season?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The sentiment is good, though. It will be nice to at least have the pieces to field a solid defensive outfield (even if we chose to keep starting an infielder in LF).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Definitely not a champion of change. I think the whole organization needed those multiple 90-loss seasons to change though -- and Molitor is probably in that group too. Put him in charge of a pre-2011 Twins team and he probably does (or resists) most of the same stuff. In any case, sorry to veer off-topic... it's definitely a trend for the Twins, and a fun one to watch.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    No prob. Personally, I assume that most any new manager will probably operate by present-day MLB manager tactical standards until they show otherwise. And examples of him doing so are probably just that, rather than him waiting or not yet learning to flex his innovative power.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    No one is asking him to do that. I don't know why you would even bring that up, after Perkins didn't pitch on Sunday and had an off day Monday.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the research and great quotes as usual, Parker! (I first read "shifty" as a similar-sounding word without the letter "f". I think that was a frequent thread title around here the past few seasons. ) (Also, the fact that the Twins dramatically increased their shifting last year suggests that Gardenhire wasn't quite as resistant to change as he is often portrayed, even if it wasn't his idea. Nice to see it ramp up further under Molitor, and hopefully we will be ahead of the curve on the next development.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure where this idea comes from, that corner outfielders are all so powerful and a dominant offensive force. In 2014, MLB RFers averaged a .142 ISO and a .715 OPS, and LFers .147 and .720. Hicks has a career .172 ISO and .850 OPS at AA, and .159 and .814 at AAA, totaling over 1000 PAs at the two levels. Will he be a star corner OF, offensively? Likely not, but it is still well within the range of possibility that he could be at least close to an average one. Fourth/platoon outfielder in a talented outfield is also not a bad thing. The Twins teams from 2001-2004 usually had 4 outfielders with roughly league average or better OPS+ (not to mention 1987 and 1991 outside of Gladden -- including your namesake, Gene Larkin).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I've heard that before too, but I wonder if anyone has ever confirmed it. It didn't seem to apply to Gibson much the past two years, or the aforementioned Blackburn in 2008-2009.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    And it's not even a "setup men are comparable to the closer anyway" situation, unless you are looking at an extremely small recent sample (and ignoring peripherals). Perkins is head and shoulders above the rest of this pen.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Molitor needs to "learn" that Glen Perkins is his best relief pitcher? I really don't understand the reluctance of some to admit that Molitor is likely more or less average (tactically) as a MLB manager. (Admittedly a hair better than Gardenhire in that regard, but he's not pushing any envelopes.)
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That's nice, but nowhere in that article does it mention Hicks struggling at AAA this season, even for a week, because he hasn't really done so (at least not to any notable extent). Nor does it really make a valid case that Molitor did anything that any other manager wouldn't have done, with a player who has already squandered multiple opportunities versus two MLB veterans as his other options. I agree that they finally handled Hicks well this spring, but it started at the top with TR and I suspect Gardenhire would have followed suit the exact same as Molitor.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Even his "mashing" in AA misses some nuance. His first 3 months in AA were rather pedestrian, then he mashed the last two months. Probably why he didn't get promoted in 2012 -- yet that slow developing performance is the primary evidence cited to support him skipping AAA for the opening day roster!
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