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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano missed 13 games while on the injured list. Otherwise, he's started 35 of 40 games (and 3 of those games off came in his first 10 days off the IL). By comparison, Donaldson has started 39 of 43 games when he hasn't been on the IL, Kepler 35 of 42, and Simmons 40 of 43. For guys that were hurt but didn't go on the IL, Polanco has started 46 of 49 games and Cruz 42 of 44 (but never in the field). So, pretty close to Sano's usage.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Looks like he didn’t miss bats in the 5th. Here is the xBA of the 5th inning PA: .520 single, .400 single, .080 RBI groundout, .420 single, .180 single, walk
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The comp pick has value, although it wouldn’t be selected until 2023 and probably wouldn’t be ready for MLB until 2025-2026 at least. Even a top 150 prospect, who’s ready in the next ~2 years, could be more valuable for a team, just due to being further along the development schedule. See what the Jays did with Stroman.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Gray had 2.5 years of control when traded, and Quintana had 2.5 plus a team option for 3.5. Berrios is already down to 1.5.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for the story, Stew. I’ve read that a baserunner can’t be out for leaving the basepath unless the defense is making a play to put them out. So a player could starting walking toward their dugout if they assumed they were put out or the inning was ending, but they could return to their base if they realized that was incorrect.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Any way the batter is retired while forced to advance, whether tag or touching the base or otherwise, would have nullified the run. So a tag would have worked the same as touching first in this case. Only Baez safely reaching first would allow the run to count. Note that tag up / appeal plays are different from force plays — a runner on third could tag and score before another runner gets doubled off on a fly ball — but obviously that wasn’t the case here.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I think most acquiring teams would want to keep the player through 2022, although a few frugal/fringe ones could change course — think Milwaukee trading Greinke, or the A’s dealing Samardzija. But I think in both of those cases, the second trade return was considered less than the first, although Addison Russell eventually turned into a bust and the A’s got more value out of Semien/Bassitt.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Do we really see batters run back toward home? I think that was rare enough that it affected the first baseman. And after that, his teammates (catcher, 2nd baseman) were in turn affected by the first baseman’s doubt. The Cubs runner from second didn’t do much that was particularly remarkable, other than perhaps being the only guy who acted like there were two outs and a third out was imminent.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Watching it again, I think the first baseman was affected by Baez. Not excusing the fielder, but what Baez did was completely and utterly irrational and bizarre given the situation. Probably enough to make the first baseman doubt that he really knew the number of outs, right in the middle of the play when it was not really possible to stop and check anymore. The fielder then compounded his doubt with many other mistakes, and likely threw off his teammates too, but I am willing to give Baez more credit for creating this play than I initially thought. (Although maybe Baez doubted his knowledge of the number of outs too? That might explain his actions a bit.)
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the current pitcher/batter imbalance is part of the reason I don't mind the extra innings baserunner rule. Tilts things a bit back toward the offense for a little bit, and at least gets them to consider alternative strategies.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Pirates 1B on this play was Will Craig, who appears to have no excuse -- he's been a primary starting 1B at every level since 2017.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Twins Pythag: 23-26 (BaseRuns 24-25) KC Pythag: 21-26 (BaseRuns same) Baltimore Pythag: 19-30 (BaseRuns 20-29) Yes, we're missing Buxton now, but KC is missing Duffy as noted above. We've also dropped our worst 4 offensive performers of the season so far (Cave, Jeffers, Rortvedt, and Rooker, all wRC+ at 43 or below) and replaced them with 98-112 wRC+ performers (not even counting Refsynder).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Also note that KC's leading performer by both bWAR and fWAR has been pitcher Danny Duffy, who is currently sidelined indefinitely. The Twins may also miss their #2 pitcher by fWAR (Brady Singer) the next two weekends.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Detroit kept Victor Reyes and his 42 OPS+ as a Rule 5 outfielder in 2018, there's no doubt they are keeping Baddoo now!
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Baddoo is platooning for sure -- only 3 starts all year vs LHP, and only 1 over the last month (vs struggling KC rookie Daniel Lynch). Although Baddoo's only been starting about 50% of the games vs RHP the last two weeks too. LHB Harold Castro is one of Detroit's better hitters and they've worked him into the outfield mix lately. They're also still stubbornly committed to LHB Mazara, and they just optioned RHB Jones for switch hitter Reyes.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for doing the research, Matthew. Another factor is going to be supply. One team to watch is the Giants -- they are currently in the race but are widely predicted to fall back at some point, and they have 4-5 pending FA SP who are doing pretty well, including arguably the best in Gausman. If the Nationals fall back, Scherzer would be an elite SP target too. I'm sure Berrios would have suitors too, but teams looking to go all-in and give up top prospects may have other, better targets.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Sano actually just started at 3B on Sunday.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually I don't think this hurts as much as it may appear. Arraez has been slumping at the plate for awhile, and doesn't really have much of a spot to play at the moment, now that Polanco and Cruz are back in the lineup today. Along with Kirilloff, Larnach, hot hand Refsnyder -- even Garlick has had a few good games, and Gordon is still on the roster too. Might as well give Arraez a few days off to heal while using the roster spot for something else.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Arraez to the IL.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Stashak and Alcala aren't quite veterans like the others, but yeah, I wasn't trying to excuse the players. Just saying the pen failures this year aren't necessarily due to any glaring errors in the front office's plan, as some have alleged here. Coming into the year, I think we projected to have a decent number of effective, high-K relievers. Just a failure to execute in 2021 -- by the players, coaches, and even the front office plays a role in that too.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    This record:
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Another note about the Rays current pen: only Castillo was originally signed by the Rays org, and only Collin McHugh was signed as a MLB free agent. Among the other 5, there are 4 trade acquisitions (and mostly unheralded ones), and one minor league Rule 5 pick. (The injured Nick Anderson would represent another trade acquisition, although a more "heralded" one after his initial MLB success with the Marlins.)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Finally? They moved Graterol to the pen at age 20, after only 44 appearances in the minors. He debuted in the MLB pen just days after his 21st birthday. Alcala was a late sign by Houston (age 19), didn't pitch in full-season ball until he was 21, was acquired by the Twins at age 23 and was moved to the pen after 25 appearances in the Twins organization, debuting in the MLB pen shortly after turning 24. The only meaningfully faster path would be to put these guys in the pen immediately after signing. And to be fair, more and more successful relievers have that background -- the Rays current pen was pretty much entirely drafted/signed as relievers, for example. But they're not pushing everybody in that direction -- they rescued Glasnow from the Pirates bullpen, for example, and in terms of prospect ranking he might be a reasonable comp for Graterol, justifying the starting leash the Twins gave him. Through age 21, you probably could have made a case for Snell moving to relief too.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    How do you know the Twins didn't prioritize developing bullpen arms, and simply failed at the task in 2021? End result is still the same, but I'm not sure it was a matter of mistaken priorities. It does seem like Tampa is more active in trades, so that's an avenue the Twins could explore more -- but then again, the Twins would still need to identify the correct guys to trade for, and develop them.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Love the Byrds! "I'll probably feel a whole lot better when you're gone" could describe how Twins fans feel about Colomè so far this season. But a Twins win tonight, plus a White Sox loss, and we'll only be Eight Miles High Games Back (technically 8.5, but -- poetic license).
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