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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Just to clarify, these numbers aren't WAR (Wins Above Replacement), they are on a runs scale (where roughly 10 runs = 1 win) and they are actually runs above *average*, not replacement. That is an important distinction, because Hicks was roughly replacement level in 2013-2014 (around zero WAR), and roughly average in 2015 (about 1.5 WAR in his partial season). That's the Fangraphs "WAR" evidence of his improvement. Also, note that these are counting stats -- his 2014 season really didn't indicate any "year to year significant improvement" in his game, particularly defensively. His numbers just look better than 2013 because he had less playing time, but he was still pretty bad. His UZR prorated to 150 games in CF was almost identically poor in both 2013 and 2014. The first Fangraphs "WAR" evidence of his defensive improvement was in 2015 (and arguably the same for offense, although his 2014 was boosted by a crazy high walk rate).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    How does Eduardo Escobar post virtually the same OPS+/wRC+ as 2014, in virtually the same number of games and plate appearances, and get votes for "Most Improved Player"? His defensive metrics didn't change a lot overall at SS between the two seasons either. I guess he did offset a modest drop in BABIP with a spike in power, which is nice, but he was a most improved candidate for 2014, not 2015. Still a good player for 2015, and probably improved a bit further, but I just can't see him anywhere near "most improved." He was already pretty darn good, it's not his fault the Twins buried him behind Danny Santana for awhile.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    If Torii grows his hair out, I will endorse re-signing him.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, the retirement thing is still technically rumor/speculation. Buehrle himself has said he doesn't yet know. (Would be very odd to retire before the postseason, even if he's not on the roster.) Maybe it will depend on how his shoulder feels over the winter. As much respect as I have for Buehrle's career, the short start Sunday was pretty foolish. He had just started Friday night, throwing 103 pitches in 6.2 innings. To start again on 1 day rest just to keep the 200 IP streak alive was not cool, especially with ALCS home field advantage technically still on the line. He probably could have tried for his 2 innings in relief once there was less doubt about the outcome.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Buehrle has actually been dealing with a shoulder problem and struggling towards the end of the season (5.53 ERA in Sept/Oct, and that's not counting 9 unearned runs!). Meanwhile, in addition to Price, they have Dickey, Estrada, and Stroman who have all come on very strong late in the year. He'd pretty much have to make the roster as a reliever, and given his shoulder and recent performance plus his lack of bullpen experience, they probably have better options for that. He will still be available as an injury replacement himself should the Jays need him.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure where to put these thoughts, but while I am happy the Twins improved upon their 2011-2014 records, I am still a little disappointed that the "changing of the guard" yielded the same scared results against the Yankees, and a listless offense in our final series that resembled many of the Gardenhire era postseasons. Those seem like indicators that maybe not a whole lot has changed despite some new names and faces...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Torii better not come back, after the team subjected fans to multiple video montages of him and his career at the season finale today at Target Field. Then a camera found him in the dugout and compelled the crowd to maintain applause and Torii to emerge and acknowledge it (not that fans wouldn't willingly cheer him and he deserves some recognition, but it was clearly a calculated effort by the Twins to force the gesture). I guess it was a blessing in disguise that we were already eliminated by the season finale, it would have been weird inserting that stuff into an important game on Sunday. I guess it's an open secret that he absolutely will not be coming back.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    On second thought, letting either the Angels or Astros win the WC outright on Sunday would give the Yankees a more rested opponent on Tuesday. That is my current preference.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    At this point, I guess I root for the Astros to win out and the Rangers and Yankees to lose out. That will make a playoff for the west division title Monday, with the loser hosting NY on Tuesday. Although a do-or-die playoff between the Astros and Angels on Monday would be fun, I am in "root against the Yankees" mode and making them play the WC game on the road seems like step 1...
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    The bats just went into "Twins postseason mode" a little too early this year. I guess the season did run later than usual, they must have been looking at the calendar rather than the schedule.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Kind of appropriate that May came into our final two eliminating losses after other relievers were allowed to put us down multiple runs. Molitor is OK, but his bullpen usage doesn't give me a lot of hope that he is willing to be creative in desperate circumstances. Or that he will ever break the Yankee spell over us.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I liked the recent observation that this series is like our playoffs, because the Twins bats appear to be in their classic recent playoff form.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Win today, and we can resume scoreboard watching this evening -- our win plus an Astros loss tonight would make Sunday's game relevant!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    What is especially strange is how Perk became option #1 to enter a game with runners on base. That obviously wasn't part of his job as a closer, and it seems like the last place you'd want to deploy him in his current volatile, erratic state. I posted this in the Molitor thread too, but his over-reliance on Perk has been perhaps his most glaring mistake late in the year.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Molitor doesn't really get much credit for removing Perk from the closer role, injury took care of that, and I was prepared to give him some credit for not forcing him back into the closer role this season... but then lately he basically tried forcing him into an arguably even more important role (primary setup man). That was pretty bad. There was a role for Perk in this pen, but that clearly was not it. Also interesting that we choose scuffling veterans over May in both the rotation AND the bullpen this year...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed that the loss last night stung, but where's that fighting spirit? Win today at noon and we're still alive. This absolutely has to be an all hands on deck situation, so it should be interesting!
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    We know because we needed Duffey to start August 15th regardless of what we did with Berrios, and that is when Duffey staked his claim to further starts. Berrios was needed on August 14th. The only start Berrios could have taken from Duffey would have been his debut start in Toronto. Actually I think most posters assume little more than Berrios getting the August 14th start, keeping May in the pen that week, and perhaps assuming some long relief or more spot start work after that. Berrios didn't need to be a full-time starter or replace anyone (except that bullpen game) to have a tangible impact.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair to Brock, the Angels were 18-9 in September, I think that counts as "correcting course."
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Duffey has been great, but his average run support has been 7.22 runs per 27 outs. 6 of his 10 starts, he's received 6+ runs in support. The Twins are 43-7 at that level of scoring, so going 5-1 behind Duffey in such games isn't all that remarkable, even if Duffey has pitched better than most while doing so. Duffey has yet to receive less than 4 runs of support this year. The Twins, without Duffey, are 69-30 when receiving even 3+ runs of offense this year. So in that way, Duffey has been roughly +1 win per 10 starts as compared to our other starters in aggregate. And even that isn't fully accurate -- he only has 58 innings pitched, so 35% of the innings in his 10 starts have been covered by relievers (the May blowup in Houston excepted!). In 2 of our closest wins behind Duffey (2 run wins vs Chicago and Tampa), relievers stranded a combined 5 runners inherited from him. Relievers have been charged with 2.83 runs per 9 innings in Duffey starts, outside the Houston game. He's been very good, and I appreciate him greatly, but I'd hesitate to discuss him for team MVP consideration at this point. There aren't many pitchers ahead of him for sure, but Dozier, Plouffe, Escobar, Rosario, and Sano all have good cases in a lot more playing time.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it's been reported that Ventura and Cueto will make their starts this weekend, but I could see them pulled after a few innings, and possibly no more than 5 even if Toronto technically hasn't clinched home field yet. Of course, given the Royals bullpen, that may not be much comfort to the Twins.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't know if it was a figure of speech, but there are no coin flips anymore. Starting with head-to-head records and moving on to division, league, 2nd half, etc. records, all ties and A, B, C tiebreaker designations are based on records of some kind. Full details at the link I posted above.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's every scenario you can dream of: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/59527184/playoff-tiebreaker-rules
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Might want to revise your description of him as a "futility infielder" though, he's actually got a nice record considering his age and position. I think he is at worst a solid utility guy right now, and with any improvement a viable starter a la Escobar.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Should be noted that Baker's 4.37 was actually better than the league average starter that year. In a relative sense, not too much different than Gibson's 2015 mark.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Hu was fantastic in a playoff start for Charlotte, unfortunately that doesn't show up in the official stat line.
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