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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to what the other poster said about DRS being relative to position, also note it is a counting stat, and based on opportunity. Buxton might be the greatest outfielder who ever lived, but he has only played half of our games, and it's quite possible he hasn't seen a lot of challenging opportunities yet, the kind of challenging plays that are needed to score big positive marks on a defensive metric like this. Unlike offense, where you are pretty much guaranteed at least 4 fairly standardized plate appearances each game, defensive opportunities are much more variable. It's also possible that Grossman has seen an excess of challenging plays in his time here, driving his rating down (even if most tend to agree he is probably below average). Neither figure is reliable in this sample size, so at this point we should be regressing based on past numbers, scouting, etc. too. Buxton is still probably at least a mild plus in CF, and Grossman a slight minus in a corner.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Especially if you're not using any young promising SP right now, who might get discouraged by bad defense. (Although even then, you're unlikely to need Arcia in CF -- most folks advocating more playing time for Arcia are also advocating a starting job for one of Buxton or Kepler, or perhaps Grossman or even Nunez or Escobar if their bats remain hot and they get forced out of the infield by Polanco.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Except Suzuki has been traded twice before, once as a pending free agent, and fetched nothing of the sort. We will be lucky if someone ate his final month's salary.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't fault the Perkins for filing the grievance, but the Twins didn't screw up or breach any contract. Perkins was pitching poorly, he got hurt, went on the DL, did a rehab stint, and then the Twins optioned him. Arcia probably had a better case for a grievance last year. Note that Perkins didn't push the grievance too far -- they settled short of the service time that would have made Perkins arbitration eligible that winter.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Span's hiting for the year-plus after his concussion was virtually identical to his hitting for the last year-plus before the concussion. I think he was a pretty minimal risk in that regard by the time of the trade.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems a bit high, considering what we got for Span who had less guaranteed cash and more team control, and arguably better recent performance than Dozier considering defense.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    All that said, I have thought for some time that Arcia might wind up a left-handed hitting version of Dayan Viciedo. I'm not that upset that it has come to this, although it would have been nice to give him a bit better priority the past year and a half.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this is a valid complaint. Even before Arcia got injured in 2015, he wasn't getting as much playing time as his record and numbers warranted. He only started 18 of 25 games, and was trending down, getting benched in 4 of his 9 games up here. And it wasn't as if Arcia was being forced out in a crowded outfield -- his 7 games sitting at that point were to Escobar 4 times, Nunez twice, and Robinson once. And this was with Jordan Schafer starting in CF. Arcia also got zero starts at DH up to that point, while Escobar got one and Nunez 3, so getting cut for Danny Santana now isn't the first time he's been replaced by utility players. And Arcia wasn't struggling that much at that point -- the power was a bit light, but his K% was the lowest it had ever been. Then, flash forward to his rehab stint, where he started 0-for-11 and was then optioned. Despite that rough start, he was up to an .830 AAA OPS at the all-star break, but by that point, Rosario, Hicks, and Buxton had entered or re-entered our outfield picture, plus Sano at DH, and he was mostly crowded out. Although I will note that had we activated Arcia from his rehab assignment just to be a bench bat last year, in place of Shane Robinson, we'd still have a minor league option on Arcia for 2016, albeit in his first year of "super two" arbitration eligibility.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe this has been corrected already too, but Kepler is not out of options next year -- he is eligible for a fourth option year. The earliest he will be out of options will be spring 2018.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure if this has been corrected yet, but Ortiz compiled that OPS at the height of the "sillyball" era (or "steroid era" as some like to say). That .809 OPS was good for a 108 OPS+, the same as Arcia at his peak to date in 2014. Arcia is also two years younger than Ortiz when he was released by the Twins. At the same age as Arcia is today, Ortiz had an identical career OPS+ of 101. Now, I agree Ortiz was better than Arcia, and this move is far more defensible than the Ortiz release, but these aren't the numbers to show it.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    FTFY. Gardy, 28-76 vs the Yankees overall. Started with a 13 game losing streak against them (2002-2003), and had another 12 game losing streak against them later (2009-2010). https://twitter.com/aarongleeman/status/520646779822694400 And Molitor is now 2-8 against them.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I am guessing a large component of the call was congratulatory, after which they talked shop a bit and confirmed the Twins were pursuing other options.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    A 2/3 like Shelby Miller last winter?
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, an anticipated waiver claim. But not an actual one. The Paredes case was interesting because the Phillies claimed him earlier, but the Blue Jays won the claim. Then when Blue Jays DFA'd him, the Phillies did a trade rather than risk losing him on waivers. How Arcia would fare on waivers would be less predictable, seeing that he has never been exposed to them.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    That is not what I was saying. I said IF he hits waivers, they can't trade him (unless he goes unclaimed, of course). Unlike what the other poster said, we can't leverage a waiver claim on him in trade talks with another team. (We could leverage a likely hypothetical waiver claim, but not an actual one.) Obviously they can trade him before he hits waivers. And that is almost certainly what they are trying to do right now.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Abad was minor league deal, so the two aren't mutually exclusive. TR could have signed both. Also, very few people actively endorsed Bastardo. It just so happens he was one of the last names on a market most assumed the Twins would be active in, but weren't.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Could such a move eventually cost him a 4th option year, like Polanco in 2010?
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Basically, the Brewers bought a few extra months to evaluate him for $25k.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Don't think it works like that. If Arcia hits waivers, the claiming team with the highest priority gets him. The Twins can't retract those waivers or use them as leverage in a trade.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    They have zero long relievers. They could get by with 7 relievers including a long man just as well as 8 one inning guys.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    How do you feel about the timing of the call?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure that only applies to tendering contracts to pre-free agency players. Not free agents. Justin Morneau, for example, signed with Colorado for less than 50% of his previous salary with the Twins a couple years ago. Even pre-free agency players can be non-tendered, if you don't mind making them free agents before you attempt to negotiate a lower salary. (a.k.a. "what Bill Smith should have done with Craig Monroe")
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    "Release call" sounds like they were delivering bad news. It wasn't really, it was just informational, confirming what Duensing probably already knew. For all we know, Duensing received similar calls confirming non-interest from other teams in the same time period. Do you think we should have called him earlier? I suspect we weren't confident in finding a better option until Oakland tried to outright Abad on Nov. 30, which he logically was going to decline and elect free agency. At that point, it sounds like the Twins waited to call until a day after the child was born, which seems polite.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure I understand. Teams are allowed to pay free agents the major league minimum, no? Duensing was a free agent this winter, and again when he opted out of his Royals deal. In the absence of any reporting to the contrary, I assume he is making the league minimum or thereabouts with the Orioles.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It wasn't a release call. Duensing was already a free agent for a month, the Twins just called him to tell him they weren't interested.
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