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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I mentioned Fister and Hill as examples of the types of bounceback free agents previously signed. Obviously neither looks to be a bounceback player again this winter! The FA SP crop looks thin this year, but it's still a little early to predict a good bounceback candidate. (A guy like Hill wasn't even on anyone's radar a year ago.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth sort of alluded to this, but it makes no sense. Nolasco is a net negative on any trade package. If someone was willing to eat a significant portion of Nolasco's contract to also acquire Jorge, you'd be better off leaving Nolasco out of it and just trading (or keeping) Jorge. The Twins don't need that level of cash, and just releasing Nolasco could give you the 40-man spot to protect Jorge this winter.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorry if I wasn't clear -- I was talking about Santana's remaining ~$34 mil guarantee. I have no idea what payroll should or will be next year.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I should clarify, I don't oppose a Suzuki trade at all. I'm not crazy about Murphy but I'd like an opportunity to evaluate him in MLB this year. (Might have been nice to do the same for John Hicks...) I just see a few more roadblocks to realistically moving Suzuki. I also think we'd all be very surprised by an extension today, no matter how we joke about its likelihood, but depending on how the rest of the year goes, I could see us picking up his option at the end of the year, or declining it and re-signing him for a slightly lower amount to be the presumptive starter in 2017 again.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Pretty sure we could have acquired Nunez regardless of whether we had Sulbaran in our organization at the time. He was apparently a pretty fungible asset, and Nunez was DFA'd so the Yankees cared more about clearing him from the roster than getting any particular return.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Just saying that, for a lot of teams, $1 mil a month isn't trivial, especially for a backup catcher who might play once or twice a week (and less down the stretch and in the postseason). It would be more like $3 mil remaining as of today. And the Twins haven't shown any great inclination to include cash in deals, as easily as we know they could.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    It was an interesting trade, but Palka still looks more suspect than prospect. And it appears Arizona targeted Herrmann at least somewhat for his versatility, negating the strict "backup catcher" definition. (Maybe also some latent potential with the bat.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Did you also write this in July 2014?
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Like Grandal, Gomes has a .200 BABIP this year. I'd guess it will be closer to his career mark of .295 going forward, at which point he would be mostly indistinguishable from Suzuki at the plate (especially if Suzuki's BABIP moves a bit closer to his career mark). Also, Cleveland has the best pitching staff in the league. Would they want to risk upsetting that mojo, for modest potential BABIP gains at the plate? I can see the argument that Cleveland should add another catching option, but I don't know if it's a realistic suggestion. They are a fairly frugal, conservative club, not unlike our Twins, they've already made a commitment to a catcher who is more than doing his job on the defensive side of the equation. And if they're looking for a backup, they probably don't want to pay $1 mil a month.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, it's pretty much true, no one really gave up much of anything for Drew Butera. The Dodgers gave up a young guy who turned out to be more or less org filler, the Angels and Royals each gave up 27 year old org filler. And all the while Butera has been making ~$1 mil or less, so he's of virtually no financial concern to any MLB team. Suzuki is making ~$1 mil a month. A team like the Dodgers might take that off our hands to be their backup. Very few other teams would.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, a bounceback guy would have question marks, but they'd be a lot cheaper, and might have more upside too. Rich Hill is one of the premier trade candidates at the deadline this year. Fister would be too if the Astros didn't need him. I don't think Santana has that kind of upside anymore, at least not unless he has a great first half in 2018. And while we don't "need" it, ~$34 mil salary relief isn't small change either. That alone could finance a bounceback SP candidate and a good FA reliever. Could it cover most of a Wilson Ramos contract?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    That's definitely a reasonable argument too. The potential cash savings on Ervin won't make or break our budget, and if nothing else it would be encouraging to see the team willing to eat cash on a deal gone bad like Nolasco's. Although they are not mutually exclusive moves. If you could save money on Ervin now while getting Berrios in the rotation, you could always release Nolasco later if you want his spot open too (i.e. Trevor May back to the rotation, Tommy Milone improving in the second half, a Fister/Hill type FA being available, etc.).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not so sure about that, Brock. If he keeps putting up a 4.50 ERA and only 5.6 IP/GS, I think his value goes down over the next year. Right now, someone buying him could hope for a return to his sub-4 ERA, 200+ inning form, but another year of this mediocrity would make that much less likely. Another factor is that as much as you want to, you CAN'T get rid of any of Nolasco's salary right now. If you want to open a rotation spot, you could release Nolasco, but that doesn't save you any money. It may be a better play to push that decision off and move Ervin if another team is still willing to pick up the check.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Somehow Tonkin still has the lowest leverage index of any reliever on the staff, at 0.72. Lower than his pre-2016 career mark, even lower than mop-up man Neil Ramirez at 0.79. Hopefully that starts trending up now that Jepsen is gone, and we can get a better idea of what Tonkin can bring to a bigger bullpen role.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Interestingly, the 1981 and 1982 Twins teams both had a similar or worse pace after 81 games, but the 1982 team "rebounded" to 60 wins (and the 1981 team rebounded to a 61 win pace, although the season was shortened by a strike). The 1982 team was 24-57 at the midway point, the worst mark in Twins history (post-1961). It's pretty disheartening to think that simply avoiding 100 losses would represent a big "rebound" at this point...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I get that (although technically it's 2/28 with his option buyout, and if you count the remaining 2016 salary, it's actually more like 2.5 years for $34.75 mil guaranteed remaining). But there's no rule that the Twins have to sign another Ervin, or Nolasco, or Leake long-term -- they could use the money and rotation spot to try to find the next Doug Fister, Rich Hill, etc. A bounceback guy on a cheaper shorter term deal.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    At the moment? Perhaps. But the Twins could shed up to $34 million by shedding Santana. They could easily afford a Doug Fister ($7 mil) or Colby Lewis ($6 mil) type in the offseason if they so desired a veteran starter. Heck, even Tommy Milone at his arbitration salary might be able to fill that void, if needed.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    As noted above, it's a FSN issue. Their contract with the Twins buys them the local broadcast rights to all of the games, even if they choose not to actually broadcast all of the games. FSN should waive that right for games they don't broadcast, to allow MLB.TV viewing.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    FSN. They have exclusive local broadcast rights for all of the games, even if they choose not to broadcast them. FSN should be able to waive that for games they choose not to broadcast so you can watch on MLB.TV.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Grandal "fallen off a cliff" still has a 85 wRC+ not far off Suzuki's 94 (or career 86). Grandal's BB%, K%, ISO, etc. all look good, but he's got a .198 BABIP. (Meanwhile, Suzuki has a career high .318 BABIP. Their career BABIPs are roughly equal in the .270s.) The other teams you list could certainly use a backup, but it's doubtful many/any of them would be willing and able to add Suzuki's salary in that role. Not a lot of teams want to pay backup catchers $1 million per month.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, not all all-star appearances are equal. Nunez has been a sparingly used bench player before this year (seriously, 204 PA last year, and only one 15 day DL stint, I think). He's had a good half season this year, but his value is still pretty low. He's 29 years old. If Arcia makes an all-star team in 2018, he will only be 27 years old. Presumably he will play more than Nunez in the meantime too. Given his position, he will probably need to have a better than 118 OPS+ to make an all star team too. If Arcia follows the Nunez path, spends most of his time on Tampa's bench, then makes an all star team in 2018 as a token team representative with a 118 OPS+ and bad defense, I don't think it will be used as much evidence of anything.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually the Twins have priority on all waiver claims right now. The only time league matters is for revocable August trade waivers. Not sure how many interesting names will reach waivers at this point in the season, though.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Best of luck to Jepsen, but glad to see the Twins do this. He wasn't helping the team, and his value wasn't going to bounce back anytime soon.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    In addition to Rogers, Boshers and Pressly also have options in our current pen.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Wouldn't it make more sense to put the over/under at 3 or even 3.5 then? I don't think anyone here is saying he is likely to be better than 2.02, so I am not sure why you would bet around that number. Of course, a lot has happened in the meantime, with changing roles and injuries, so I am not sure anyone really wants to bet on something like this, but they'd still probably like to see May get a chance.
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