Otto von Ballpark
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From the article that inspired this post: -
I don't think these moves are particularly similar to Twins moves. The Astros 3B is a pending FA, and they have gotten nothing out of 1B and DH this year (as well as an outfield spot, where they have two more pending FA too). They are also in a pennant race and need a bat or two regardless of position, something that didn't really apply to the Twins and Park last winter. Until they actually do something suboptimal with Bregman, this is not similar to the Park/Sano situation. Liriano's career isn't much like Pomeranz's either. Liriano actually was good to great a couple times for the Twins, and was traded as a pending FA, and has been a great FA value for a Pittsburgh playoff team (no need for them to sell high). I admit Oakland trading him last winter was really weird, but Oakland's weird moves are pretty unique. Giolito was a more aggressive callup, as you note, straight from AA to a contending team. Berrios had a fair amount of AAA experience already, was on a last place club, and got replaced by Pat Dean. The Nationals have the best ERA in the NL, largely in the strength of their rotation, with Strasburg, Scherzer, Roark, Ross, and Gonzalez (with a capable swingman in Petit).
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Why call up Hildenberger now? He is still behind Chargois on the depth chart, maybe Melotakis too. He's not on the 40 man and not Rule 5 eligible this winter. Probably not worth leaving someone else unprotected this winter just to get Hildenberger a handful of innings in a lost season, no? I could see a promotion to AAA, maybe an AFL stint, to get him ready for an early 2017 debut.
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Sorry if I wasn't clear. I wasn't picking on you, just clarifying because Cafardo was the source of earlier Santana speculation too. I just thought that was notable. (Also, Boston is/was a potential Santana suitor -- is it a Boston front office member who thinks Santana can be had for mostly cash?) I appreciate the link, I read MLBTR a lot but missed that item.
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Technically, it is according to a Boston sportswriter, one who previously seemed to report that Ervin had value in this market...
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Maybe he's on their radar because they expect to see him in AAA for a long time?
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Are there? What's the upcoming FA class look like? Who else can they buy in-season to upgrade their 2016 chances?
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To put it into perspective: the Twins just spent $24 mil for 4 years (or $30 mil for 5 years) of Park. And he's 30, offers no defensive flexibility (1B/DH only), had probably a bigger red flag at the plate with his K rate, and had never played outside of Korea. Compared to that, getting Gourriel for 5 years, $47 mil doesn't look that crazy. He just turned 32, but he's also played elsewhere in the infield, doesn't have a big red flag in his Cuban stats (love the K and BB rates), and has already successfully adjusted to a foreign league once (in Japan). It's a risk, to be sure, but it's maybe not that crazy. I think I like Gourriel at this price more than the Tomas and Castillo deals. Could still go bust like Olivera, although it is a bit cheaper than Olivera's deal (and maybe Gourriel can stick defensively better than him, I have no idea).
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It's a gamble, to be sure. I really haven't followed Gurriel at all, but he dominated Cuba last year, and he even had a very good season in Japan in 2014 if one is concerned about how he will adjust. Even if 3B isn't a problem, the Astros can absolutely fit him in as soon as he is ready -- they've gotten nothing from 1B or DH this year. (They could probably stand to bench Gomez too, if they could shift someone like Valbuena to an outfield corner.)
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Yulieski Gurriel finally signs, $47.5 mil with the Astros. Should be interesting! http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/astros-to-sign-yulieski-gurriel.html
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No way. I'm not that sold on Profar, and we're not that desperate for salary relief on Santana. That would be giving up 3 assets for 1. Also, Profar collected service time for his lost 2014-2015 seasons. He's already arb eligible and is scheduled to hit free agency after 2019.
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Yeah, that was from before the season, and was based on him spending the whole season (as well as successive seasons) in the majors, which obviously hasn't happened. B-Ref also still says Alex Meyer will be arb eligible after 2018, and a free agent after 2021. It is actually impossible at this point for Zunino to reach 6 years service time (and thus free agency) by the end of 2019, even if he was recalled today and never spent another day in the minors. Since they haven't called him up yet, it seems quite possible the Mariners could delay his next promotion until around early September and avoid super-2 with him this winter too. It obviously would be much more difficult to justify that on a team acquiring him now in trade, but again, his first arb award is likely to be negligible anyway.
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1. FA isn't the only avenue to acquire a SP for 2017-2018. (Although even in a weak market, they could probably find an interesting one year flier in FA and reassess at the deadline again next year, and an internal option might be close enough by then too. Heck, Santana himself might still be attainable at next year's deadline again.) 2. Not necessarily a better SP straight up for the 80ish prospect, but if you have that prospect and $26 mil to spend, you can probably figure out a better solution that gets you more upside for the 2016 pennant race, without precluding having enough SP for 2017-2018. Maybe the number 80ish prospect could anchor a package for Hill? Maybe you can keep your 80ish prospect, but give up a better one straight up for more upside, like the Red Sox did for Pomeranz? Most teams with $26 mil to spare probably have more cash available than that too, and can afford to get creative like the Rangers did for Hamels last year. There's are reasons that guys like Santana and his contract don't get moved much, if at all, in July. I think two of the biggest are teams want more upside than that for the stretch run, and teams willing to absorb most of the contract probably aren't too worried about filling the back end of their rotation the next couple years.
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Thanks. I'd probably take that too, but it feels like it might still be an overpay for the buyer. If a team has a bottom quartile top 100 prospect and $26 million to spare (Ervin's remaining guarantee minus $8 mil), it seems like they could make a stronger push in 2016 (which should be their priority right now), and still have the resources to address any remaining SP needs for 2017-2018.
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That's kind of my feeling too. Not that TR's record is terrible, but the consistent playoff failures, combined with multiple long rebuilds, ultimately make it a little underwhelming. Maybe it's more accurately the TR/Smith/Antony + Gardy/Molitor combo, but even if they right the ship, I don't have a lot of confidence that the next few years are going to turn out much different than the last 20 have, collectively.
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Of course, those are subjective terms. What's a fair offer, to you? Sorry if I missed it upthread. In my opinion, the posters debating about a certain type/level of top 100 prospect were pretty much looking for an overpay.
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The White Sox primary DH has been Avisail Garcia and his 74 OPS+, so Morneau doesn't have a high performance bar to clear either.
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And after 8 games at AAA, the White Sox have activated Justin Morneau: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/white-sox-activate-justin-morneau.html
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Yeah, although it's probably a sign that other teams will approach the market similarly. As much as Ervin isn't bad, and Pomeranz has a limited track record, teams are probably looking to gamble on upside right now, even if they don't just want a pure 2 month rental. From the MLBTR piece, I note that Pomeranz was in a pretty big group of "controllable arms", while Ervin is relegated to the "big contracts" group. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/trade-market-for-starting-pitchers-4.html It's unlikely that anyone will feel compelled to overpay to get Ervin Santana on his remaining contract.
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And Ichiro is the only part-timer among that group of 6, with 188 PA. The other 5 all have at least 273 PA. Wow, the Marlins are tied for the 2nd wildcard in the NL. I do hate Loria, but it's more about the Montreal thing. For all their cheapness and tear-downs, I actually think the Marlins take a pretty interesting approach to roster construction, and it is fun to see them relevant.
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Lindor's minor league components (BB%, K%, ISO) look much closer to Crawford's so far, than to Gordon's. Lindor was another guy with almost as many walks as strikeouts. Not that Gordon's components are bad, but it's a little harder to project future hitting success from them right now. His BB% is notably below the FSL average, and his K% is only a hair better. He probably needs to add something to his offensive profile (power? walks? fewer strikeouts?) along with the good BABIP to have a shot at being an outstanding MLB hitter down the line. (Not that Crawford will achieve that either, but he's got a better chance right now according to the prospect hounds.)
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I admit that Gordon currently has a slightly higher wRC+ in the FSL than Crawford's first year there. But wRC+ is a little too broad to conclude "better bat" based on that slight advantage. Crawford still has the advantage in most components (BB%, K%, ISO) outside of batting average (where he was no slouch at .275). Also, if you include Crawford's games at high-A to begin the following season (when he was still younger than Gordon is now), he actually had an overall 138 wRC+ at the level, in almost exactly the same number of games/AB. And almost as many walks as strikeouts! http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=sa737507&position=SS&type=-2&gds=2014-06-19&gde=2015-05-29&season= And beyond high-A, repeating a ~120 wRC+ with strong components at a young age at higher levels is a huge factor too. If Gordon is doing this at AAA in a year, he'll probably jump pretty high in the rankings too, particularly if he can improve his components (and rely a little less on BABIP).
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I just google the player name plus "milb" which takes me to their player page at MILB.com. Then I click to "View More Transactions" (they are pretty complete going back to 2009 or so) and search the page for the text "optioned". It's pretty easy at that point to see what years a player was optioned in (and if they were optioned for at least 20 days of the season). It's not a simple resource, but it is usually a pretty straightforward calculation for most players. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=572287
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"Better bat"? If you mean batting average, that's true, but Crawford had a pretty similar wRC+ in the FSL with much better K% and BB% (and was a year younger than Gordon when he hit that level). Also, "higher slugging percentage" is double-counting Gordon's current advantage in batting average. Gordon's isolated power is actually lower than Crawford's at the same level. He's not really "slugging" better than Crawford. Not a knock on Gordon, he's still a solid prospect doing well, but there's a reason why Crawford was/is rated higher. Heck, Crawford is less than a year older than Gordon, and has already maintained those great K% and BB% figures all the way to the doorstep of MLB (even if the rest of his batting line still isn't overwhelming).
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It's not just the K rate -- he's giving up a lot of hits and walks too, and it's leading to runs (both earned and unearned). Rosario has a 5.23 RAvg, compared to the FSL average of 4.08. Last year he had a 5.20 compared to the Midwest League average of 4.29. I'd stick him in the bullpen now and see how he responds, before I have to make more 40-man decisions this winter.
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