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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, not nice enough for a starting every day in a lost season. His high OBP will still be available to us in 2017 even if we park it on the bench a bit more in 2016.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Not that it improves his overall line significantly, but he actually had 4 BB for July at the time you posted this, big dog. A 14.8% BB rate. He got another one last night too. Small samples, but his 2016 BB% with the Twins was already a career high 8.8%, and he's at 11.5% in his time with the Rays so far, for an overall 2016 mark of 9.6%. Still needs to take the big step of controlling those K's to be an above league average hitter, though...
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Why would there be extension talks for Suzuki? We apparently hold an option on his services for 2017.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Texas isn't selling low enough on either to involve the Twins. They are likely talking Odorizzi, Archer, Lucroy: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/rangers-receiving-interest-jurickson-profar-trade-rumors.html Also, both are no longer elite prospects. Thanks to collecting MLB service time while on the DL the past few years, Profar only has 3 years of control left, and his good small sample batting line has been buoyed by an out-of-character .369 BABIP. And Gallo has begun slipping in prospect rankings, not only for his suspect MLB debut of 85 wRC+, but also his modest 119 wRC+ in AAA. Turning them into the right reinforcements for a 2016 pennant race, and for 2017 too, might be the smart play. Texas also leads their division by 4.5 games so it's hardly that bad for their fans right now.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are correct. His only mentions at MLB Trade Rumors are in regards to the Twins, dating back to 2008: https://www.google.com/search?q=site:mlbtraderumors.com+%22rob+antony%22
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the key statement here is "who knows?" Sure, Antony might operate differently/better than TR and Smith before him, but there is zero evidence of that. Listening more to Goin and expanding his department isn't even necessarily a good thing -- do we have any idea whether Goin himself is actually fit for his position in modern MLB? I want a new GM who can look critically at the work of Goin too. And it's not as if Antony hasn't had a chance to provide such evidence -- he's been a respected assistant GM for 9 years, with a fairly public profile and a broad base of duties (including a stint as acting GM). If he was really a viable MLB GM candidate right now, he has had ample opportunity to articulate a better case than "good at negotiating contracts" and "listens to Jack Goin more." Unless he somehow shows he is a mystical "GM whisperer" over the next two months who can extract top prospects in return for our marginal assets, there would be absolutely no justification for hiring Rob Antony as the next Twins permanent GM in 2016, exhaustive external search or not. Antony could say the exact same thing in his interviews as the best external candidate and it still wouldn't matter -- Antony just doesn't have any record to back it up (setting aside the obvious Melania Trump concerns over him saying the exact same thing as someone else ).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Good point. Also, the only thing really progressive about MacPhail in the 1980's was his young age. Was he really that "forward thinking" in other ways? MacPhail's name also had a pretty strong legacy at the time, I could totally see Jim Pohlad choosing a notable name, regardless of age, as his new GM for much the same reasons as Carl.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The thinking (not that I agree with it) is probably that they are hoping to trade someone to free up a spot.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, what TR should be judged on is, did the move succeed? Not whether the move seemed reasonable at the time. Otherwise we wouldn't need a professional GM. Obviously Park still has time to turn things around, but the early returns have not been good. Combined with TR's other shaky forays into free agency, that probably led to his dismissal more than anything.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I am not sure I follow this line of defense of TR. He wasn't employed to make moves that looked reasonable, he was employed to make successful moves. I couldn't care less that most observers thought Park's deal, or Nolasco's deal, etc., was around the market rate. (If any of those moves hadn't been around the market rate, they would have been grounds for immediate dismissal, no?). TR just didn't make enough successful moves, which is the standard that MLB GMs are generally held to.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    No, he is still subject to the pool limits because of his age (19).
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Not quite true! They did sign Deinis Suarez in the Bill Smith era, I don't think he was ever considered a prospect though (I actually remember nothing about him, and I obviously follow the Twins pretty closely): https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deinis_Su%C3%A1rez
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Haven't had a chance to loom at this in detail, but it should also be noted that WAR is a counting stat. Four 1 WAR pitchers/seasons is not equal value to one 4 WAR pitcher/season.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, arguably tougher division in the AL West. In finding historical comparables for the Twins horrible start this year, I ran across a number of AL Central teams, notably Detroit and KC. The West had a few bad teams, but rarely any that hopeless.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    The GM would have to be there the whole time? I can't imagine that, how much baseball work goes on in Minnesota in the winter? You could fly in for the occasional meeting, but otherwise scout winter leagues, meet with free agents, do the winter meetings, convene in Ft Myers, etc. It's not like the GM is going to have to get up at 7 AM every morning to shovel snow to work a 9-to-5 all winter... some of his/her staff, sure, but not the GM.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, Beane's teams went down to the wire in every playoff series they lost, except one (2006 ALCS). I guess the end result was similar to the Twins, but there wasn't quite the same embarrassment/domination involved.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Speculation, but pretty much based on the reporting. The decision was made a while ago, and it has been more or less said that TR didn't want to be a lame duck. I really doubt that Pohlad and DSP have any idea about what they would do differently than TR, they just finally admitted they have to go that direction.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    The Pirates are also very frugal (remember how much they resisted paying for a month of Justin Morneau?). They are not taking on significant salary like Ervin Santana.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    TR didn't want to be fired. He thought the best way to improve the club was to retain him. Pohlad apparently thought the best way to improve the club was to bring in someone new. TR disagreed, and was dismissed before that process began, as per his request. I suspect Doogie was correct, I doubt it had anything to do with anything as specific as deadline trades.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    This is a decent summation of my posts on Anthony too. It would be one thing if Antony was a relative newcomer himself, but he's been assistant GM for almost 9 years now. He's had plenty of opportunity to make his GM case beyond "respected at negotiating contracts". The fact that he hasn't in any clear way is probably a sign that there isn't much case to be made.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The "no-deal to pay" threshold is a lot lower in Oakland. Also, that threshold appears to have been met by most teams this year, as no one was interested in claiming Milone and his salary on waivers. We'll see if it interests anyone at the deadline... (That said, I agree the trade was a solid move for the Twins. Just probably not due to any special skill on TR's part. Same with Grossman, who was signed as the insurance outfielder after David Murphy suddenly retired. Although I worry that a GM like Smith or Antony would somehow manage to fall behind on these type of "standard GM" moves...)
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Here's a interesting interview, from February 2011, with Rob Antony (by Jesse Lund at Twinkie Town, summary via MLBTR): http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/antony-on-nishioka-hardy-pavano-liriano-more.html "Tsuyoshi Nishioka first popped up on the team's radar after Antony mentioned to his agent that the team was looking to get more athletic on the infield." -- does that sound like Antony had healthy skepticism about Gardy's request? "Hardy was expected to make $5MM+ in 2011 (he eventually signed for $5.85MM), and the team "just decided that we wanted to put that money into other areas." The Twins had conversations with other teams about Hardy, but there were never any real offers. The trade with Baltimore was "by far [their] best opportunity to make a deal." -- does that sound like Antony really understood the value of Hardy as an asset? Now, maybe Antony has learned from those experiences, and the spring of 2014, but the fact that he made these decisions after many years experience in the front office doesn't inspire confidence that they were just simple rookie adjustments that needed to be made. I suspect that he simply doesn't have the mindset and skill set of an effective MLB GM, which is no shame -- not many people do. But that concern shouldn't be dismissed out of a sense of loyalty or fairness in our current GM search.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I won't enter your larger debate, but most every team finds a few interesting guys like this occasionally. Usually it's more about the other team needing to unload the player, like the DFA'd Eduardo Nunez or the soon-to-be-expensive Tommy Milone, and less about any "amazing" skill on the part of the acquiring team.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting idea. 5 years ago, MLBTR had a similar idea: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/gm-candidate-mike-radcliff.html Of course, shortly thereafter the Orioles inquired about interviewing Radcliff for their GM opening, and the Twins declined (rumor suggesting the Radcliff simply wasn't interested): http://www.twincities.com/2011/11/03/twins-deny-orioles-access-to-radcliff-report-says/
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Seth, you're ignoring the Bill Smith era here. Antony likely had more power/influence from October 2007 to November 2011 as the #2 in command under admitted "administrator" type GM Smith than he did in the spring of 2014 in place of TR. And there is evidence that Antony contributed to major blunders (the costly acquisition of Delmon Young and Antony's public comments on the predictive power of RBI, for example), or at the very least, failed to see and communicate the obvious problems in moves driven by others (the Gardenhire-led Hardy-for-Hoey swap, for example). I view that as Antony's chief negative in terms of gauging his ability to take over the top spot, and his limited spring 2014 performance is simply confirmation of the earlier exposed issues (chiefly, allowing Gardy to roster Bartlett against all logic and reason). Also, the fact that Antony is respected in contract negotiations is nice, but that's the work of an assistant GM. As Bill Smith demonstrated, it is largely immaterial to his ability to be an effective GM. Sure, Antony might finally demonstrate previously unseen dynamic, aggressive, original ideas about talent procurement, roster construction, and front office organization, just like Juan Centeno may begin hitting HR at the rate of 1 per week. But evidence overwhelmingly suggests that neither is likely the case, and Centeno will continue to perform like a backup catcher, and Antony will continue to perform like an administrative-minded assistant GM. To deny that and say "anything's possible!" with no evidence doesn't feel like a substantive point.
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