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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Huh? Are you seriously arguing the Chapman isn't one of the most dominating RP in the game? He may not be the "most" dominant this year, but that wasn't the claim -- he is clearly one of the most dominant, and is valued according to that. Chapman's K% ranks among qualified relievers after his rookie year: 2016: 6th 2015: 1st 2014: 1st 2013: 1st 2012: 2nd K-BB% ranks (eliminating the overly wild strikeout guys) 2016: 6th 2015: 3rd 2014: 1st 2013: 3rd 2012: 2nd Oh, and he has a 1.91 ERA since 2012, and a 1.76 FIP, lest you are concerned that his peripherals haven't led to results. And a 2.01 ERA and 1.93 FIP this year.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    An aside, but Berrios' case is a good illustration why strikeout percentage is better than K/9. Berrios struck out 1 of 9 batters he faced in his last start in Detroit -- but K/9 only tells you he struck out 1 of the 2 he retired. Berrios' 12 K/9 in MLB actually resulted in a slightly lower K% than his 9.52 K/9 in AAA this year.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    That's assuming that things are going to change. From recent Twins deadlines, that is not necessarily so. It is incumbent upon management to know the likelihood of that change, and if your reasoning is true, it sounds like Twins management is greatly over-estimating the likelihood of one of their starters being traded in advance of August 1st. Also, you assume the only change is releasing a player which can't be undone, or a DFA/outright which might be difficult to undo. The Twins could have sent Duffey or May to the minors weeks ago, and Nolasco or Milone to the pen if necessary, immediately opening a starting spot for Berrios, and leaving all options available to replace a different starter in the event of a trade come August 1st (Duffey or May recalled, or Nolasco/Milone back to the rotation). That scenario hardly seems to describe a generic bad management practice worthy of reprehension, in fact it sounds like standard baseball roster moves that happen all of the time.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Different waivers. Milone cleared non revocable outright assignment waivers back in May. Revocable August trade waivers are different, and Milone would have to clear them separately in order to be dealt in August.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    And those two goals (have some MLB success, but protect his arm) are probably easiest to accomplish with an earlier promotion. If he comes up August 1st, or September 1st, there is that much more pressure to pitch him, as opposed to having come up on July 1st, where the Twins could have afforded to let him skip starts or rest an injury while still getting him an adequate amount of MLB experience.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Most of the board is simply saying that Berrios should have been promoted already. It is not necessary to DFA Nolasco or Milone to do that, one of them could simply have been demoted to the bullpen, ready to step back into the rotation should a Santana or Gibson trade opportunity arise (or traded themselves in August if another team is desperate enough). Also, technically DFA doesn't mean Milone is necessarily lost. If Milone cleared waivers, he still doesn't have enough service time refuse an outright assignment to AAA without forfeiting his remaining salary, just like why he "had" to accept the outright assignment earlier this season.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Those weren't the only options. They could have tried to pass Herrmann through waivers and outright him to AAA, and if he was really as interchangeable with Juan Centeno as you claim, it shouldn't have been too much of a problem to time such a transaction -- an out of options Centeno cleared waivers himself in November. Read the article again. Nick, to whom I was responding, most definitely completely ignores Herrmann's 2016 performance. There is no mention of it at all in the article, even just to dismiss it as a small sample size, outlier, etc. Which sort of matters when he wants to conclude the trade is a "big win" based on the 2016 minor league performance of Palka. I'd even be willing to consider the trade as win for Minnesota right now, but I think such a conclusion needs a more honest accounting of all of the facts, and the fact is that Herrmann has looked like a useful MLB player in 2016 at a position of need for the Twins, and it isn't all that clear that Palka will ever exceed that threshold. (The "X" factor is, of course, if the Twins have coaching/development problems that were stifling Herrmann here.)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought you just said that Herrmann lacking options was a big negative? That's certainly a difference that he and Centeno don't share with Hicks, who is not only optionable this year, but again in 2017. Being able to more freely audition catchers, in an org with a catching deficiency, seems like it would be more than a negligible or minute difference.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Not really. If a deal emerges for Santana or Gibson this week, the team can afford to hang on to Nolasco and Milone longer. The only reason those guys need to be demoted or DFA'd come August 2nd is to make room for Berrios without taking reps away from Duffey. Once a spot is cleared otherwise, they might as well keep Nolasco and Milone longer and hope they recover more value.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks for stopping by again, Mr. Goin. I'm not sure messaging is really the problem behind this perception. Whose idea was it to start the Twins analytics department? How was the head of this department chosen? How is the performance of this department evaluated internally (and who is doing the evaluation)? I think the answers to those questions determine the public perception of the Twins analytics department more than anything else. And these issues apply not just to the analytics department, but the whole front office. It's kind of fun when front office folks work their way up the ranks of one organization, but when a whole front office is comprised of folks like that, for such a long time, it raises questions about the hiring and evaluation processes. You wouldn't expect a successful MLB team to be made up exclusively of draft picks who progressed through the system -- I'm not sure a successful MLB front office should be built any differently.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins probably aren't the last to consider a trade this year -- it's far more likely other teams are considering the Twins assets last. Seriously, why would you pay even a dime to acquire Nolasco or Milone before you're absolutely sure you can't get anyone better before August 1st? Especially since Nolasco and Milone are likely available any time up until September 1st... It's a little less clear on the position player side, although teams have plenty of reason to wait on both Suzuki (Lucroy, Norris, etc.) and Nunez too.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Gosselin is listed as primarily a pinch hitter at B-Ref, so I'm not sure it's fair to describe him as a utility guy. A pinch hitter is far more valuable to Arizona than to Atlanta right now (and isn't even that valuable on the overall trade market, as AL teams generally don't need them or can't roster them). And his .773 OPS with Arizona is inflated by a brief September garbage time power spike last year, which Gosselin has never repeated before or since. 2 of his 3 HR that month were hit off of Colorado pitchers who were subsequently demoted this year. This year, Gosselin is a 85 wRC+ hitter, pretty much in line with most of his professional career, even with the benefit of a strong .341 BABIP. I have a hard time seeing how Arizona could clearly "win" that deal over Atlanta -- worst case, it seems like it will be a win-win -- Arizona will shed some salary and get a average-ish PH/utility option, and Atlanta took a chance on a decent prospect. (I'll add that Toussaint is still very young, doesn't even have to be added to the 40-man until after 2017, and his recent K rate suggests he could be a bullpen option even if he fizzles out starting.) Also, Atlanta further complicated things by shedding some of Arroyo's salary in a subsequent deal with the Dodgers, so perhaps it's not quite accurate to say they took on that full $10 million for Toussaint. In any case, I pretty much agree with you on the core Twins point. The Twins don't need salary relief, so they don't need to sell a prospect like this.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, they've done all right in some areas of the roster, like Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, and Vargas. And they don't have a lot of options at catcher (although they largely have themselves to blame for that). But the rotation plan and certain bullpen choices the past couple months definitely leave something to be desired.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Duffey was sent "back down" for 3 starts. He's had a 7.17 ERA over the past two months. Do you really think he made all of his permanent, final adjustments? On the same level as Berrios? I think 6 of Berrios' last 7 starts have been better than the best Duffey start from his 3 games "back down" at the beginning of the season.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    No one is forgetting that, except perhaps the people that keep pointing to August 2nd as the magical target promotion date for Berrios. Actually, those arguing for that seem to be forgetting a number of points: - Nolasco and Milone are far more likely to be dealt in August than July - August waiver trades yield much lower return than July non waiver trades, and those low returns are not necessarily more valuable than an extra 2-4 weeks of Berrios in MLB - Duffey can be sent down, and he had an ERA over 7 in June and over 6 in July so far - either Nolasco or Milone could be moved to the bullpen rather than released - Nolasco and Milone are both clearly part of a class of pitcher whose market value is not terribly sensitive to their role -- i.e. a bullpen demotion would not be unsurprising for either, and they would still be seen as desperation rotation options by other teams, just the same as if they were starting for the Twins
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    So, because it could be worse, then this situation is OK? I hate that line of reasoning. If Berrios had been fully ready for 6 weeks but was stuck in AAA behind our current group of starters, it would be grounds for immediate firing. Given that, I'm not sure why they are above any criticism for keeping him down 2-4 weeks past his ready date. Do you really think what the Twins do with Nolasco, or to a lesser extent Milone, in July has any bearing on their July 31st trade market? By definition, a team trading for either of these two guys will be desperate, and less prone to shifts in usage by the Twins. Suddenly shifting, say, Gibson or Duffey or Santana to the pen, while also trying to trade them, might suggest an injury or a heretofore unknown performance concern. That's clearly not the case for Nolasco, who has been a demotion candidate for 2.5 years running, and probably not Milone either who has been repeatedly demoted before. How incompetent would it be to keep starting Nolasco, every 5th game, when he has the worst ERA of any active MLB pitcher since the start of 2014 (min. 150 IP), as some sort of "bluff" before the non-waiver trade deadline?
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. That was for a top 100 prospect, though, a very recent first round pick. The Braves took on $10 mil salary to get him. They also gave up that player Gosselin, but I think it is safe to say that Walker would not fetch more in salary relief than Toussaint, and this deal probably won't be replicated anytime soon (seems to be one of those "Dave Stewart Specials").
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Bingo. The idea that Nolasco/Milone in the pen before August 1 would meaningfully affect their trade value at this point is preposterous, and frankly insulting to suggest the Twins would be thinking in such simple, demonstrably untrue terms.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems like this same reasoning contributed to him not getting a callup last year -- we couldn't afford to break in another young hurler in the playoff race. This year, we are as far from that race as one can get, but apparently we can't afford to lose starts for the veteran Nolasco before the trade deadline?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Until they allow trading of draft picks, and remove the draft spending caps, those examples aren't really relevant to present day MLB. (IIRC, Appel fell in the draft and declined to sign for a lower slot, so he re-entered and went higher the next year. He would not have refused to sign had he originally been selected #1.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    And if August 2 rolls around, and Nolasco and Milone are still on the team, do we shrug our shoulders and say "they had to wait to try moving them" or is it okay to ask if a MLB front office should be able to anticipate two of its players having zero value before the deadline? And not have to wait for the obvious confirmation? If Nolasco's Twins career isn't enough, and Milone's season and earlier clearing waivers isn't enough, what threshold of poor performance and salary/circumstances would be enough to warrant not waiting through the deadline? Is it only players who are performing worse and paid more than Nolasco that could get bumped from their starting role prior to July 31?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Did the players settle their revolt after the Neil Ramirez demotion yet, so close to "The Deadline"? Even if your theory is true, and I'm not really sure what it is, Berrios could have been swapped for Duffey a week ago if teams can't demote players just a week before "The Deadline." (Or would the players have seen through such a simple trick to demote him two weeks before "THE DEADLINE"?)
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually it didn't buy another year of control, given the amount of time he spent in the minors this year. Actually could have had him up for part of August last year too and he wouldn't even be super 2 eligible right now.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Can't tell if serious, but Berrios is well past that point, this season. He was only up for ~3 weeks earlier, and we're about 7 weeks past the assumed Super 2 threshold date.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    So your recent article titled "It's Time!" was actually written in the future? Seriously, Nolasco and Milone (and probably Santana) are probably better candidates for August trade waivers than the upcoming deadline. Should the Twins just push Berrios back to September 1st too?
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