Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Pelfrey's current deal isn't a "one year flyer" so I thought you meant his earlier deals. And like I said, if a team wants a starter cheaper than that, Detroit may give them Pelfrey and eat a few mil too. Jimenez, Garza, there are other options too that may not cost $12-13 mil.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Hasn't happened often, and not recently. (Aiken chose not to sign because of a reduced offer.) A player taken #1 would probably be nuts to pass up a slot offer.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Your premise stated that less $4-5 mil, Nolasco's salary would be comparable to a Pelfrey flyer. It's not true. As a flyer, Pelf made ~$5 mil. It would be more comparable to the remaining guarantee on Palfrey's current deal, which I am sure Detroit would gladly sell if there was a market for such pitchers.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you actually saying it is realistic to expect a team to take on Nolasco's full salary if they get Walker too? There is not a chance in heck of that happening, not with $17 mil left on his deal. Maybe a team would take on a couple million, but at that point it probably doesn't make sense for the Twins to include the prospect. They don't need a couple mil salary relief.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Completely downplay? I said he's a decent prospect. "Completely downplay" would be to call the trade a "big win" for the Twins, while completely ignoring the post-trade performance of the player the Twins gave up...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Depending on how you value Hu and Tapia, it seems that TR ultimately paid the equivalent of Bastardo's contract (2/12) for Jepsen. And of course, Perkins. Has TR's bullpen plan really been effective? Or just not as bad as it could have been? Sounds like a familiar refrain -- last year it was Boyer, before that Duensing, Fien, and Burton. Another reminder to not count your trade returns from Abad and Kintzler before they hatch...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    In other words, if a team offered $17 mil straight up to buy Adam Brett Walker? I guess in that fantasy baseball world, you take it.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    So does TR deserve criticism for not putting Kintzler and Abad in the same bucket to start the season, and paying Perkins, Jepsen, and Fien and pilfering May from the rotation instead? I mean, it is nice that some guys are performing in the pen right now, but TR spent ~$13 mil (and a potential SP) on his pen and watched it fail first. That seems to offset whatever credit TR deserves at this point for Abad, Kintzler, and Boshers (pending a trade for "actual value").
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Wait, so Herrmann was expendable because we had John Hicks (although I seem to recall he was claimed after Herrmann was traded)... and in the very next point, John Hicks was expendable for David Murphy too. Got it. What great catching depth we must have! Why are people worried about the position at all going forward? Seems crazy, the way you portray it.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Palka is of actual value? He is an interesting corner power prospect. I am not sure we could turn around and trade him for anything more than Herrmann today. He might have more value in the future, IF he can make that big step to MLB and provide enough offense to offset his defensive/positional limitations. It is also pretty amusing to read how valuable that catchers are, hence why Herrmann was able to be traded for "actual value", but then see those same people completely ignore any performance or value that Herrmann provides...
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    To flip him before Sept. 1st, you'd have to claim him now, and then pass him through trade waivers immediately on August 2nd so you could deal him later in the month. If the Twins are willing to claim him, it's not clear that he would clear trade waivers on August 2nd. And I highly doubt that Storen is signing anything over the next 2 months, his value is low right now. He needs a good September performance, preferably higher profile with a contender, to try to boost his value.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Them are some very small samples. I think the most encouraging thing about Herrmann's past batting history is the K/BB rates. He's still not looking good in MLB in the K department, although he's better than 2015. But if he can add some power to the mix, and holds his own in the BABIP department, he could be solid.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Who the heck are you responding too? No one is expecting a .371 BABIP from Herrmann. I think Thrylos probably overstated Herrmann's batting history, but I doubt even he thinks this is a sustainable BABIP, or he wouldn't have started his first post with "I don't know about the Palka trade" -- it would be a clear win for Arizona if he thought that BABIP was remotely sustainable. Please read these comments in the context of Nick's "big win" statement in the article.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Exactly. That's why we take issue with the article's assertion that the trade "will go down as a big win" for TR (while not mentioning Herrmann at all). I said that Palka "might have to become more than an interesting prospect for the Twins to win that trade." Thrylos said "I don't know about the Palka trade." It sounds like your issue is with Nick too, not us.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    That BABIP is still pretty far out of line -- Herrmann's BABIPs: 2009 R .330 2010 A+ .270 2011 AA .305 2012 AA .317 2013 AAA .292 2014 AAA .368 That last one also featured the smallest number of plate appearances among these seasons. But see my post above -- Herrmann doesn't need to sustain this great BABIP to be a valuable contributor.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think anyone is claiming Chris Herrmann is now an .853 OPS hitter in MLB. But he doesn't have to be for the Twins to be losing this trade right now, or to raise the bar for Palka. He's showing signs of life at the plate beyond pure BABIP -- give him a league average BABIP and his OPS goes down to .761, but that's still better than a resurgent Suzuki this year (although it would probably be a hair behind Suzuki in OPS+, given Arizona's ballpark). That could easily be useful going forward with team control and arbitration salaries for the next 3 years, especially if he really can be a backup OF too (imagine if our backup catcher could help push Danny Santana off the roster...).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Who exactly would be buying these players? Probably another rebuilding team in a lost season, with 40-man roster space and opportunities to break new guys in. What exactly would those teams give up for one of these players? Maybe they'd give us a few million salary relief on one of our bad contracts, but they're probably not giving up talent, which they need themselves. I'm not sure we need that. We're probably just better off playing/protecting these guys ourselves to see if they can contribute and build more value. Eat a little more salary if we need to clear a spot for them.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I wouldn't automatically assume that a non-qualifier was below average. Average or above-average defenders could have split time, due to platoons, injury, minor league call-ups, and/or utility deployment. If you want to include those teams, it's probably best to look at team totals rather than disregard them as below average. The Twins ranked 15th in DRS, 18th in UZR for team 3B fielding in 2015. In 2014, 14th and 10th, in 2013, 23rd and 25th. Those are the years of Plouffe as exclusive 3B. I'd probably characterize the Twins defense at 3B, with Plouffe as primary 3B, as roughly average. Could be improved with a better utility/backup option, although Plouffe being on the wrong side of 30 (and having accumulated some injuries himself) could offset that too.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I think this also misinterprets much of the criticism leveled at TR and his bullpen plan. I don't think anyone denied the Twins could have a decent bullpen, whether it was the guys already on the team or a few contributors cropping up from minor league signings, etc. I think the big criticism was TR's plan made it very difficult to have a plus bullpen, which could have been an important part of our plan to contend. He was counting on a lot of iffy guys at the outset, carried over from a suspect group last year, guys would be given an ample chance to fail first before they could be replaced. Then once the reinforcements came (mostly after we were out of the race), they were guys like Abad and Kintzler, lower upside guys who could certainly have a nice run of results, but were never likely to see sustainable dominance. Indeed, our bullpen is 13th in the AL by ERA-, 12th by FIP-. Not a big deal given the other failures on our team, but hardly an asset deserving of praise for a team that was hoping to compete in modern MLB either. We were 9th and 11th in those measures last year, 8th and 11th in 2014, 6th and 7th in 2013, etc. I'm not sure that TR really addressed it particularly effectively, given our hopes of contention -- his plan was likely to produce a more or less repeat of our recent years bullpen performance, rather than an asset.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    These kind of statements seem to be getting out ahead of things. I don't think we can give credit for flipping Abad for a decent return before it actually happens, and while Palka is an interesting prospect, he might have to become more than that for the Twins to win that trade, as Herrmann has finally looked like he could hold his own with the bat in Arizona. (Perhaps Herrmann was never going to achieve that with the Twins, but that to me suggests a problem with our coaching staff rather than a guy who should have been "on his way out"). Also, while the Twins deserve some credit for signing Grossman, it appears that David Murphy deserves an assist for deciding to retire (but not before we lost John Hicks from a catching-starved organization).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    This has been discussed here before. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/21441-terry-ryan-i-am-not-a-fan/page-14 http://www.twincities.com/2016/02/12/local-tv-deal-doesnt-hamper-twins-payroll-team-president-says/ "For accounting purposes, St. Peter said, the Twins will count the pro-rated portion of the $12.85 million they gave the Nexen Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization to win exclusive bidding rights for Park. That’s an additional $3.2 million over the next four seasons that wouldn’t be counted against the luxury tax but indeed goes toward player costs."
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the Edgar stuff gets overblown. He had crazy good K/BB rates but didn't hit much otherwise until age 24, and that was in the PCL so there was probably a reason to be skeptical. It earned him a cup of coffee, but they made him repeat it at age 25, which he did. At 26 he was more or less in MLB to stay but struggled that year, perhaps had an injury too? He probably should have seen more MLB action at age 25 over the incumbent 3B Jim Presley, but maybe just a half season or so. I won't argue your larger point, though.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It appears that poster just forgot about Kepler...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I was counting them too. Berrios needs to start every 5th game beginning August 1st to get 11 more MLB starts this year. Hence why we are very near zero margin for error toward that goal. Personally, I would have preferred a little more margin for error in getting that experience for Berrios, over whatever it is they are trying to do with Nolasco or Milone...
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, any individual baseball draft pick is a crap shoot. But, with the modern draft bonus pools, the top 1 or 2 teams get so much more money than even the 5th team, they can leverage them into more good picks. So it's not just the #1 pick vs the #5 pick, it's more likely a below slot #1 pick, plus an above slot second and third rounders, vs that #5 pick. Not that the Twins have yet been creative enough to try this approach...
×
×
  • Create New...