Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    I am pretty certain the team foots the bill. A lot of young players (minor leaguers) probably wouldn't be able to afford it otherwise.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    If he really didn't want to get paid while not playing, he could retire. (I fully believe he is entitled to keep getting paid though and have no problem with that, I just find it a curious statement.) Perhaps he could even skip the surgery if he retired? Like Radke?
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting to note, when Suzuki was traded back in 2012 and 2013, both times it reportedly involved cash being sent along to offset some of his salary. He was making $5-6 mil annually at the time, comparable to his current $6 mil salary. Both deals were also made after Suzuki cleared waivers in August.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Sorta. Although Polanco is cheap, and Nishi was actually more expensive than Hardy. And while he is still young, I'd venture that Polanco is probably more projectible as a competent MLB player now than Nishi was at the time. Also, I don't know that many people have advocated dealing Dozier even for a Hoey-level return. If that was really the best offer right now, pretty sure all but the most extreme posters here would pass. (Dozier's remaining guarantee of ~$16.67 mil would represent more significant salary relief than Hardy's $5.85 mil, although we didn't need that level of salary relief then or now.) Interestingly, Hardy at the time of the trade was actually younger than Dozier is now too. I think a lot more posters would endorse sending Plouffe packing for pure salary relief, since he's likely to be a deserving non-tender in the offseason anyway, and it would open a spot at 3B for Sano and perhaps some opportunities for Polanco as well.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Fangraphs has us at 0.0% across the board for playoff odds. Except, somehow, in "coin flip mode", we do managed 0.1% in playoff/division/ALDS odds. I guess because no one has ran away with our division yet (although we have pretty much run away in the opposite direction). Looks like we were still at 0.5% playoff odds two weeks ago, and 0.2% a week ago. Now I guess it is 0.049% or less...
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Sounds like you might prefer their "season to date stats mode" which projects only a .383 winning percentage the rest of the way, 35-57 for a final record of 57-105: http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=1&lg=div&date=current
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    "Injury prone" was about as valid an excuse to deal Hardy, as Gardy wanting more speed from his middle infielders. That might be the worst trade in modern Twins history. I mean, it doesn't appear we were even trying to get value back for him, just wanting someone to take his salary after we signed Nishioka instead. Seriously, a starting MLB shortstop for a 28 year old minor league reliever with ~6 BB/9 the previous two seasons mostly in AA...
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Fangraphs actually says 42-50 now, which at .462 is just a bit under our preseason projection there (.481).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    They all have options. Darnell has one, and Albers and Wheeler each have two. Regardless of whether they have been outrighted off the 40-man roster before, they would have to clear waivers before we could even attempt to outright them anyway. If no one claimed them on waivers, I suspect they would be fairly likely to accept the assignment and defer their free agency until after the season -- are they really going to find a better opportunity as free agents for the next couple months? Also, I think Darnell can be a six year minor league free agent at the end of this season anyway, if not added to the 40 man roster (parts of 7 seasons in the minors, contract renewed 6 times). And Albers is 30 years old and has been a free agent the past two offseasons, I don't think there should be any concern about potentially losing him either. The one interesting case would be Wheeler -- if we don't add him to the 40-man roster this year, we could still retain his rights for 2017 as long as he went unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft. Although that's probably getting a little too cute. I'd prefer Duffey but if he gets too hopeless there is a case for swapping the two and seeing what you have in Wheeler in a lost season, and at some point you could make a case for Wheeler over Milone too (who is basically a walking non-tender at this point).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Kepler had a rapidly improving 133 wRC+ at AAA, with a 10.9% K rate, and wasn't a month removed from a staggering 50% MLB K rate like Buxton. He was most definitely a plausible candidate for promotion. Even if you wanted to keep Kepler on the farm longer, while Grossman isn't a CF, he is more than qualified to play CF for a few weeks on an MLB team with a .300 winning percentage. Given the bodies we've run out there over the past few years, I'm not sure why we'd suddenly adhere to stricter standards at the position in June 2016 to the point of jerking around an elite young prospect. (And benching and subsequently cutting Arcia too.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Generally agreed, although Hernandez is far from a serious loss yet either. And even now, 8 years after his Rule 5 selection, Cabrera has only averaged 1-1.4 WAR per 500 PA in MLB, much of that coming in one season with what looks like an outlier K rate. Although this is quibbling at the margins. The Twins haven't lacked the 40-man space to protect these guys, and having options through age 24 for 16 year old international signees should offer plenty of time to develop them.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    As I mentioned above, the problem with Polanco's options ending this year is not due to when they protected him, but that they gave him 92 active days in rookie league ball in 2010, so it counted as a full season. Other than that, he should be in the same boat as Kepler, with a fourth option year in 2017. Polanco would have been an aggressive Rule 5 choice after 2013, certainly, but potentially a very good one. Middle infielder, a 127 wRC+ and only a 11.3% K rate in full season ball. Compared to Kepler, OF/1B, 105 wRC+, 16.3% K rate in the same league. Or Arcia, corner OF with a 107 wRC+, 23.3% K rate in high-A in 2011. I suspect the Twins aren't out of line by protecting these guys though -- from what I recall of checking Rule 5 previews, there generally aren't guys like Polanco circa 2013 being left unprotected.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps. Although, at the time of his Rule 5 selection, Cabrera was 22 years old. Kepler and Polanco would have been 20. Arcia would have been 20 too. It's somewhat moot though anyway, as Kepler does have an option left next year, and Polanco would too if not for ~3 days of roster weirdness in his first pro season of 2010. And we were still able to option Arcia last year in his age 24 season.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, Buxton didn't use an option last year. He only spent 10 days on optional assignment in August. Less than 20 days on optional assignment in a season doesn't use an option year: http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3521
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Is league average OPS really an "advanced metric"? http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=1997&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 Ortiz had his highest PA total for the Twins in 2000. AL non-pitcher OPS that year was .794. Ortiz was at .810. Arcia had his highest PA total for the Twins in 2014. AL non-pitcher OPS that year was .708. Arcia was at .752. Weighted by their respective PA each season, we can estimate that the AL non-pitcher OPS was ~.773 during Ortiz's Twins career, versus .721 during Arcia's. The league average during Ortiz's career is even higher (~.785) if you cut off his sample at his 25th birthday (Arcia just recently turned 25).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    There are other possibilities than Polanco putting up a batting line like Santana, Rosario, or Hicks. He could put together a performance that is sustainably good. As fans of recent Twins clubs, we tend to forget that is a possibility that does sometimes happen.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Dozier was rushed too, but was allowed to learn and adjust in MLB. Took him about a year. The MLB adjustment is one that isn't necessarily helped by AAA at-bats. And I think the problem with the Twins development strategy probably goes deeper than the number of AAA reps these guys get. So what is your plan for Dozier and Polanco this winter and next spring? Is there any level of AAA performance that would make you trust him with a starting job next spring? It is not about hurting Polanco's development, it is about figuring out what you have in him while you are at critical junctures with Plouffe and other infielders.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    We're worried about Polanco's plate discipline now? Or -- gasp! -- letting him polish his defense at the MLB level? Evidence suggests Polanco will be a far better rookie than Dozier was, on both sides of the ball. I'd rather find that out now so I would better know if I can deal Dozier.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Mostly. Obviously no one would make Arcia the everyday CF, and he would probably never need to play the spot if guys like Rosario, Kepler, or even Grossman were also on the roster -- but keeping Arcia's bat in the lineup should have been a greater priority than giving reps to the veteran backup CF or utility guy du jour (Thomas, Mastroianni, Schafer, Robinson).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Uh, that is kinda the point of the criticism. The Twins were stockpiling placeholders, and adding/extending more.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    In both the Dominican (Sano) and Venezuelan (Arcia) dialects, no less.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    True, but this discussion is about more than Walker. He's not the only data point.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I've got another link that says he dropped from 268 to 263 over the winter: http://www.startribune.com/sano-not-exactly-downsized-but-ready-for-switch/367162191/ I think at best this is an unknown.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I have no doubt the coaches have "worked on it" with these players, but isn't that kind of the bare minimum? If they didn't work on it, that would be grounds for firing on the spot. At some point, we have to consider whether their "working on it" is producing sufficient results.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    And if it was just Walker, it could perhaps be excused as relating to a unique player. But pretty much every guy the Twins have promoted the past few years has some serious issues in this department.
×
×
  • Create New...