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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Fair enough. I think some of the "prospect sacrifice" by those clubs has been overrated, though -- San Diego did give up Trea Turner, and Arizona Dansby Swanson -- good prospects, but probably not enough to really handcuff them. San Diego in particular restocked a bit already with the Kimbrel deal. No doubt Loria is among the worst owners, but generally the Marlins baseball people have been pretty well regarded.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Are the D-Backs, Padres, and Marlins handcuffed for the future? Based on projected payrolls, San Diego certainly isn't, and Arizona has a similar projected payroll but with one guy (Greinke) on top of it. The Marlins future payrolls look a little worse, but again most of that is one guy (Stanton), and to their credit they are in the thick of the playoff race this year, so they are getting some present-day benefit. And all 3 of those teams have changed GMs within the past 2 years. In any case, I wouldn't get too hung up on the exact ranking. All of those teams are in the bottom third of these rankings, which should put any of them on thin ice when seasons like the Twins 2016 (or stretches like the Twins 2011-2014) happen.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree that it will be a never-ending cycle, but for very different reasons. People don't act rationally, and athletes in particular don't seem to act rationally about PEDs. I think most athletes (and fans) overrate the positive effects of PEDs, and they do them for much less tangible benefits than increasing their salaries.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    True, these can be considerations, but they do not appear to have been considerations for recent Twins moves. Meyer wasn't called up to start on any schedule. Chargois obviously wasn't on any schedule. Berrios was initially, but was dropped suddenly after 4 starts in favor of his mop-up reliever Pat Dean...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct -- Kepler qualifies for a 4th option year in 2017. Polanco does not, unfortunately, by the slim margin of 3 days in 2010. Would be interesting to hear exactly why the Twins split up Polanco's rookie league season in 2010. It shouldn't have been an oversight, he was a notable signing in 2009, and he wasn't on any fast track either (didn't reach full season ball until 2013). Like Kepler, he's exactly the kind of guy you keep in rookie league ball and under 90 active days for a few years. Even if they wanted to move him out of the DOSL and into the GCL for a while that first summer, I think they could have shut him down 3-7 days early and assigned him back to the DOSL on paper to keep him under 90 days.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Why would we assume that further information would have come out about Ervin Santana? Most guys busted for PEDs don't have any further information come out. Do you assume all of these guys were absolutely clean until just before their first failed test? That seems naive. There are a lot of possibilities here. I suspect every PED guy also uses a masking agent to lower the risk of a failed test. It's possible that Santana's masking agent failed itself (or its usage wasn't timed properly) for the first time during the spring of 2015. Also, while testing has been around for years, there have been changes. There has been a big bump in testing frequency since 2014: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15475310/number-major-league-baseball-drug-tests-increasing-year-year Obviously Santana wasn't surprised by the timing of his test, as I assume it was the mandatory one that all players take during spring training, but it definitely could explain how he managed to avoid testing positive before. It is much easier to time your periods of use (and successful application of your masking agent) when you know testing is less frequent. While we will never know the whole story, it seems rather naive to assume Ervin Santana only started using shortly before he got busted. Best case, given all the unknowns, I think that scenario gets no better than equal odds compared to the two other primary scenarios (one, that he was a long-time user, or two, that he took a tainted supplement). EDIT: That said, I agree PEDs probably don't have much bearing on his past or future performances.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    I generally agree with you, but like Arcia on the bench -- maybe the team believes it already knows what they have in Polanco? And they are comfortable with him competing for a starting spot next spring, regardless of whether he plays in MLB or AAA right now? Of course, if that was really true, you'd think they would give him more reps at 3B and SS right now, even in AAA, since it appears those would be the more likely open positions than 2B next spring. Dozier is the only infielder (not counting 1B) with a guaranteed contract for 2017.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    This is incorrect. WAR includes an outfield arm component. At B-Ref, you can see that mentioned when hovering over the Rfield column header, and at Fangraphs, it's also itemized as "rARM" (DRS, I think) and ARM (UZR version) under "Advanced Fielding." Revere scores negative in both for his career, offsetting some of his positive defensive components. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4712&position=OF#fieldingadvanced EDIT: It appears B-Ref itemizes it too, as "Rof" (from both BIS and TZ data sources) on the advanced fielding stats page: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01-field.shtml#advanced_fielding::none
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Has this same article been written before about Arcia? Parmelee? Those guys raked in Rochester too. Plouffe eventually did too. None of them have ever generated enough offense to hold down a corner OF spot in MLB.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Reminds me of Chris Parmelee, September 2011, in some ways. Still, I feel like Grossman has a decent chance of hanging around as an average MLB player for a bit, even when he comes back to earth.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    The Meyer tie-in is that there was no 40 man roster crunch. They could have promoted any other AAA pitcher over Chargois if they so desired.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually Jepsen is a free agent after this season.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    What was the emergency? Alex Meyer hasn't pitched in over 40 days and could easily go on the 60 day DL at this point. Edit: technically a minor league player can't go on the 60 day DL, but I am pretty sure the Twins could rescind their option on Meyer and retroactively put him on the MLB DL, since he hasn't played since his MLB stint. It has been done before by other organizations.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    What veteran was injured to put Buxton in the opening day lineup? Or Hicks before him (twice)?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, Ortiz at the time had an above league average walk rate (~12%), and his K rate had already dropped down to league average (~17%). Ortiz really just needed to step up his power from league average (~.165 ISO) to become a valuable hitter, which he did in his age 25 season, although it was slightly masked that year by a drop in BABIP. Arcia, on the other hand, while he has seen his BB% climb to a league average level, his K rate is significantly higher than league average (31.5% career, versus a league rate around 21%) and is trending worse so far at age 25. His power too seemed to peak in 2014 and has been league average or worse since then.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Arcia is a placeholder, at this point. An interesting option to use in case of emergency, which would be another outfielder getting hurt, a DH getting hurt, or perhaps Sano moving back to the infield when healthy. Once we are closer to full health, I wouldn't be surprised to see him cut.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    DFA means you have 10 days to release or trade the player (or try passing them through waivers). He would find a better fit than Minnesota, but I don't think Arcia is a good fit anywhere at this point. He's got a 40% K rate, terrible defense, no minor league options left, and is set to hit arbitration this winter too. Someone might claim him on waivers for a look, or give up something like the waiver fee in trade, but you aren't getting any notable value back on him right now, unfortunately.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Nolasco is still guaranteed ~$17.6 mil. You would have to eat virtually all of it to unload him, it would effectively be a release. Santana is still guaranteed ~$33.2 mil. I suspect you wouldn't have to eat all of it, but eating half would cost as much as cutting Nolasco, and you still wouldn't get anything worthwhile in return. And right now, Mays and Hughes (and Meyer) are on the DL, and Berrios is still searching for his groove at AAA. It's not ideal, but the team could use a warm body in the rotation for a couple more weeks, at least. Nolasco might be worth putting on the chopping block at that point. I doubt Ervin Santana is worth unloading this season.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I could see Arcia getting DFA'd once Santana is ready. He doesn't seem to have much of a role or future on this club. Or a pitcher could be optioned, which would bring the roster back in balance (although in truth, our bench options are generally so poor as to not matter).
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    You are correct, I was mistaken. League priority only applies to trade assignment waivers (August). League is only used as a tiebreaker for other waivers. Otherwise it is strictly record. http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3525 Which is a little more disappointing -- the Twins didn't claim Neil Ramirez two weeks ago, when the Brewers got him. Which suggests their more recent claim was entirely out of desperation (and to get Chargois back to AAA) rather than any particular confidence in Ramirez himself.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, although I think Polanco's admittedly small MLB sample is encouraging -- he's looked pretty darn comfortable as a MLB hitter from day 1, which is refreshing. I won't quibble any further with their prospect rankings, I am more concerned with the lack of MLB opportunity for Polanco.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that Ramirez cleared the entire NL in waivers. If we have a chance to get him through the AL, we could outright him to AAA. If he sticks in MLB for the rest of this season, he should be arbitration eligible this winter as a "super two" player, probably getting around $1 mil?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It was just a statement of fact, they are very close in age. It made no absolute claims based on that fact that could be considered "cutting it awfully fine." It wasn't claiming that Polanco is better than Kepler due to age, or that he can develop more, etc. Just that, if Kepler gets points for taking a step forward on the development curve in the past 12 months, then Polanco might deserve similar credit for his recent performances too because he is similarly young. Not necessarily equivalent credit, if Kepler gets bonus points for his unlikely origins, but comparable enough to cast doubt on the 5 spot gap between them in Seth's rankings (the context of the original post).
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you are the only one who read Thrylos' statement as "Polanco's recent numbers vs. Kepler's career numbers". Go back and read it again, that wasn't explicitly written nor do I think it was even implied (especially considering the same post invoked their similar ages, which implies the author is far more interested in their current place on the development curve than minor league career numbers, which very few people cite as meaningful, ever). And frankly, Polanco compares pretty well, especially with the added potential to be a middle infielder. I have no problem with Kepler being ahead of Polanco, but I think it is fair to question how Kepler would be ranked #1 and Polanco #6 at this point.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Buxton's early season numbers were so bad, that improvement upon that baseline, while encouraging, shouldn't disqualify him from a demotion. Also, no one is arguing that Buxton needs to be sent down today, Danny Santana is at least a week away. He has plenty of time to show his weekend was a just a bad series.
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