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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Dejesus last year wasn't in the minor leagues, wasn't subject to waivers, and was performing at a roughly league average clip (94 OPS+). We all know that players can be traded. The question is, how many players are tradeable in Milone's present circumstances?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm in the corner that this mentorship stuff is probably exagerrated. Moreover, how do we know it had a positive effect? Seems like the kind of game to game long distance tinkering described in this excerpt could have contributed to Buxton not being comfortable or confident in his approach in MLB.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Agreed on that. These circumstances call for aggressiveness.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not just about determining whether you are a buyer or a seller. The Royals and Mets won't be sellers, but they may not need to buy. They will probably take the next two months to evaluate internal options. Remember when everyone here was convinced we could deal Plouffe to the Giants? Then Matt Duffy emerged. Teams aren't particularly willing to give up anything for an average-ish and scuffling player like Plouffe now, if they don't need to and it might cost them a trade chip or money to put towards more on an impact acquisition closer to the deadline. And Shields is by all accounts healthy and a roughly league average starter even through his San Diego struggles. Nolasco and Hughes, you would pretty much have to eat near 100% with no prospect of significance coming back, I think.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Problem is, by the same token, most teams are not yet committed to being buyers. We saw the steep price the Padres paid to get out ahead of the market with Shields.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    22%. It was bumped up from 17% a few years ago.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually you don't really know until a couple years later when they become arb eligible (or not). But teams seem to be able to predict this quite well, I don't think there have been too many surprises either way.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Hocking, Punto, and Carroll all received multi year deals from TR.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually we are at that point right now, it appears. Pirates just called up Taillon.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    At 5 years service time, players can refuse to be sent to the minor leagues. Dozier isn't quite at 4 years service time right now, so they can freely option him for at least the next 12 months, if they so desire. (And of course any time in the minor leagues would push back the date he reaches 5 years service.) Also, if we optioned him in the next 5 days, and he didn't return to MLB this season (admittedly that would probably be bad, from a performance or health perspective), he would still be short of 4 years service time at the end of the season. And thus he would be under team control for an extra year (2019). Probably not worth it, but something to think about.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Temporarily sending down Dozier will not significantly impact his trade value (unless perhaps he struggles in AAA too). I agree that his trade value won't go up while he's in AAA, but frankly it's unlikely to go up significantly before July 31st regardless. I'd rather get my looks at Polanco now rather than wait until August. If Nunez or Plouffe gets traded, or someone gets hurt, Dozier can come back then.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    I see where you are coming from in a generic sense, but the cards are already stacked against a Nunez extension, by virtue of his age, salary, remaining year of control, past history, likely market, etc. None of that changes no matter how deeply you analyze his approach, swing mechanics, etc. right now.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    There is almost no way extending Nunez would be beneficial to the Twins. He's making $1.5 mil, due to make maybe $2.5 mil next year. The extension would basically begin at his age 31 season in 2018. And assuming he doesn't continue to hit .335 with a 137 OPS+ for the next year and a half, how much do you think he will even get on the open market after 2017? Whatever it is, the Twins can easily afford it if they really need to retain him at that point. Even if Nunez has figured some things out and that is driving his current success, an extension would be flushing away all of Nunez's surplus value this year and next, no real gain -- basically hoping for surplus value later (above a higher salary threshold) in his age 31+ seasons. No way. It's eerily similar to the Suzuki situation, a needless extension covering age 31+ supported by Parker's article on his approach.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Mostly agreed, but I think Dozier could benefit from a lower-pressure opportunity to experiment with adjusting his approach, it has to be hard to do that at the MLB level. But yeah, primarily it's the only practical way to get Polanco back in MLB right now, barring a sudden trade.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Clear playing time for Polanco? To achieve that, you either have to trade someone, demote someone, and/or bench someone. If a trade opportunity isn't there, the easiest solution is optioning Dozier. (Every other infielder is out of options, Escobar is already on the bench, and Plouffe and Nunez need/deserve a starting opportunity more than Dozier right now.) Then Dozier and Polanco can both keep playing everyday, without the other guy looking directly over their shoulders either.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The whole point of our offseason bullpen "strategy" was that we had some top bullpen prospects, and bullpen prospects can be fast risers. If you're not even going to promote the fast riser until perhaps August in a lost season, then what's the point. There's no reason Buddy Boshers needs the next two months of MLB reps more than Chargois (assuming Dean is optioned when Gibson is activated). Even if they really want to go back to 12 pitchers at some point, there aren't 12 pitchers more important to our 2017 plans than JT Chargois. Jepsen could be DFA'd, he really has no place now or in 2017. (Arcia is also a DFA candidate on the offense, given they way they have used him.)
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    There are reasons, just no good ones anymore.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he was misused too, but I think it's an exaggeration to label his start as a "breakthrough performance." There were encouraging signs, though.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I think the issues are quite possibly related. Guy with a history of shoulder trouble and inconsistency -- abruptly changing his role and routine could very well have contributed to his current ailment.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure if it was injured before his trade to the Twins, he only had one pro season before that and he didn't miss a start. Also doesn't look like he missed any time in his three college seasons, judging by the stats. Two months into his first season in the Twins system (2013), he was shut down with shoulder issues. He rehabbed and returned about 2.5 months later. He was also shut down at the end of his second season in the Twins system (2014) with some shoulder concerns, sounding not unlike the current ones: http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/08/31/twinsights-alex-meyer-dl-j-o-berrios-triple-rochester/
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Your general point is right (Nunez's hitting has him above average overall this year), but if you are looking at dWAR on the batting leaderboard, there is a better way. (dWAR is a counting stat, and on that leaderboard it contains all of the dWAR accumulated at all positions, even if they are not primary SS or 3B -- not sure what criteria Fangraphs uses to determine "qualifiers" at a position. dWAR also includes a positional adjustment which isn't helpful when comparing guys at the same position.) There is potential for very skewed and misleading results there. Better to select the position from the drop-down "Split" menu as it will only include AB and WAR accumulated at that position. And best to simply check the fielding page directly, as it will only show the innings at a particular position and can be sorted by a rate stat like UZR/150. Still Nunez does pretty well this year, 19th out of 34 at SS: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=140&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d&page=1_50 And 21st out of 38 at 3B: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=3b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=140&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d&page=1_50 (Minimum 140 innings at each position.) Still, it's a pretty small sample for defense, and Nunez still has a negative score at both positions by all the major metrics (UZR, DRS, TZ), but at least for 2016, his bat has easily outweighed his glove.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but maybe that nets us another prospect like Hu at the deadline...
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    That list isn't all about trade "value" -- it's also about a likelihood to deal. The Twins should undeniably be a seller, and Plouffe could be in line for a nontender this winter or an unpalatable arbitration award. Those are probably the bigger factors in his ranking than his actual trade value.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not a lump sum, it is divided over the years. Not sure if it's equally divided or not. Shields has an opt out after this season, if he exercised it, the Padres would not have to pay $31 million.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    To those that think releasing Ortiz was justified: has any healthy player coming off a performance like a 120 OPS+ season ever been released in MLB history? Not just non-tendered, which means his team could re-sign him at a lower rate like Oakland did with Jack Cust, but actually released, precluding him from being re-signed to a MLB deal. I'm genuinely curious. My guess is that it is rare enough to suggest the Twins decision was very much a mistake in real-time.
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