Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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Buxton Stalls Out, Again
Otto von Ballpark replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
How can this description not concern you, if only for the injuries? Can this guy even stay healthy long enough to fully implement the massive adjustments he still obviously needs to make? -
My take on the Twins GM search
Otto von Ballpark replied to biggentleben's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You know Beane has an ownership stake in Oakland? I am not even sure he counts as implausibly plausible. I would be surprised if we interviewed a lot of big names. I think what will be most interesting to see are the more anonymous front office guys coming from other organizations. -
I haven't been tracking the lineups too closely -- how much of this has been due to injury? Seems like Buxton has been dinged up a few times.
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And with Plouffe back, one of Polanco, Escobar, Sano, or Vargas on the bench at all times! It's a win-win!
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Ever hear of selective endpoints? Dave chose the endpoint of his "sample" and ignored the results of two previous larger season samples in drawing his conclusion. If I had posted Mauer thread #764 a week ago, would it have been fair to conclude that Mauer should now be expected to be a .736 OPS hitter? Not based on 2016, no. Same story, a week later when his OPS spiked to .800. Even to the extent that .800 represents an upward trend over 2014-2015, the fact that it took only a week to create that "trend" suggests it may not be particularly meaningful yet at this point.
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Of course a .780 player can also hit .800. Nobody has a true talent at an exact number, it is more like a general range. And you'd be hard pressed to look at Mauer's post-concussion record so far and conclude that .800 is near the middle of his range right now. He obviously has the talent to do it, but the evidence just isn't there, not yet. 2016 is encouraging so far, in that it suggests 2015 was more at the low end of his range rather the new norm. But we're a ways off from expecting .800 to be the new norm.
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And you quoted his OPS on the heels of a crazy hot streak, that pushed it to .800 for the first time in a month and a half. If he finishes the season at .800, it will at least mean he reached the mark at 4 different points of the seasons, which would be better than the 3 times so far with gradually decreasing peaks (early season near .900, mid June at .826, now early August at exactly .800).
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If it swings up 70 points in a hot week, it is probably the peak rather than a new norm. A "true .750 OPS hitter" will probably swing between .700-.800, which is what Mauer has spent the last 3 years doing, the last week included. I'd like to see his hot streak continue up to .850 OPS before I get too confident about him being a "true .800 OPS hitter" going forward.
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Also, Mauer's season OPS was .736 just a week ago. He is nowhere near stabilizing as a .800 OPS guy, although I agree that would be very nice if he somehow did so.
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Also, there seems to be some confusion here, but Mejia and Light are already on the 40-man.
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Winners and O'Rourke will be eligible for minor league free agency after the season if they are not added to the 40-man roster. So if we have any open spots, it costs nothing to look at them in MLB for September. Someone like Wheeler, on the other hand, if we add him and later try to remove him, could be lost on waivers. Might be better to leave him off an expose him to Rule 5 -- that puts a high hurdle for any other team to acquire him for 2017, and if he isn't picked, he remains property of the Twins.
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Sano can be optioned in 2017 regardless. Burning an option now would likely only affect 2018.
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I believe the Twins only get to keep $25,000 after the player is returned. If this is the plan, I'd like to see Jones get a look now, at least in AAA. Another almost 26 year old reliever toiling away behind Tommy Milone and minor league free agent to be Neil Ramirez...
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Should Sano Get Demoted?
Otto von Ballpark replied to MileHighTwinsFan's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If only the Twins front office was that effective at stuffing the ballot during all-star voting! Seriously, I fully endorse the opposite of any poll of Star Tribune sports readers. -
Catching up with Brian Duensing
Otto von Ballpark replied to diehardtwinsfan's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I wonder if Duensing was ever distracted by his name popping up so frequently in trade rumors? -
I'm pretty sure you know you're on an island of one with this opinion... and I'm pretty sure it only strengthens your stance on the issue. I've been on a similar island many times myself, even if I don't share this one with you.
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I'm really not sure I've argued anything so specifically. 2009 was obviously a banner year for us, internationally. We spent aggressively like we had never done before, but arguably like we haven't really done since (I guess Javier was "bigger" compared to our 2009 signings in absolute $ terms, but not in relative terms). I don't think one has to wait 6-8 years to evaluate these things either. We knew pretty early that Sano was special, and within 3 years that Kepler, Polanco, and Hu were too. They were known assets by that time, even if they weren't producing in MLB yet. Maybe Jorge and Romero are creeping toward that now. I don't mean to sound like I'm grading their international work too harshly. It's a difficult place in which to succeed. I know I said "below average" before, but frankly I probably should have said average -- but that would still suggest there is room for improvement, especially if I felt like the front office may still be operating under some outdated ideas and models.
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I am pretty sure no one has made such a complaint. Some folks said it was a big win because Santiago is better than Nolasco. Others questioned whether the difference between them is all that great, particularly in the context of the Twins current needs. If that is how you interpret such a debate, I am not sure what to tell you. I'll grant you this -- at least you didn't chime in to say how all of our opinions are wrong as judged by your experience in real-world business and management situations!
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What if you later found out the painting was a Plouffe?
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I'm not trying to make excuses for Sano, but it is a weird situation. He wasn't just asked to play another position -- he was moved. At precisely the time he was also trying to refine his approach against MLB pitching, which is proving to be more challenging than we expected too. It doesn't surprise me that different facets of his game and focus are suffering. I'm not exactly sure what to do about it at this point, but "take a bunch of grounders" or "make him a DH for life" seem at best incomplete.
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Terry Ryan might beg to differ on that last sentence. I'm pretty sure a trusted baseball guy like TR could have convinced the owners to go out of the pool, within our overall budget. We could have gone out of the pool just for, say, the $24 mil we committed toward Park. It's the GM's discretion at that point, and a good GM should be able to convince ownership to trust his priorities within that budget. Greinke and other elite FAs are obviously much harder to fit within that budget. But the bonus pool and most international FAs are more akin to mid-level MLB FAs, and I think TR had complete discretion to prioritize those to his liking within the overall budget.
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Sorry, I didn't mean to come across like that. I didn't set up the original goal posts so I wasn't aware I was moving them. I'm just a fan who hasn't been all that impressed by their recent international strategy, and they've had kind of a weird summer in the international market.
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What I'm saying is, the Twins job isn't to sign publicly ranked/regarded players -- the Twins job is to sign (and develop) the correct ranked/regarded players. Their moves aren't necessarily above reproach just because they sign ranked/regarded players. Obviously no one will hit at 100% at that, it's well less than that for international amateurs, but it feels like the Twins might be hitting below the average here. And it definitely feels like the same front office has been hitting below the average in other areas too, namely MLB and international FA, so it feels like their might be some structural weaknesses at play.
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Hey Miguel, remember how last winter and spring, we wouldn't let you take any ground balls? Well, now we need you to take THOUSANDS of them, over hundreds of hours, beginning now, through the winter and spring, until opening day. As always, our office is always open if you have any questions! Sincerely, Twins Management
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That might be a stretch, but I don't disagree with most of the rest of your post. We might be comfortably middle of the pack by various measures, but I'm not sure our front office knows how we got there or has good ideas for getting better. But I digress.
