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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    If they get to the end of the month without moving Plouffe, he is staying on the roster until the end of the season, regardless of whether they plan to tender him or not. (I still think they might, or at least might want to negotiate a non-tender/re-sign). They couldn't even bring themselves to cut Aaron Thompson before the end of the season last year, and they didn't even recall him in September when rosters expanded and they were rather desperate for pitchers (AJ Achter, long relief!). They're not cutting Plouffe before the end of the year.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I wonder if Plouffe is already on waivers. You can request trade assignment waivers on a DL player if he is "eligible to be reinstated from the DL and healthy enough to play" which seems to apply to Plouffe on his rehab assignment.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Grossman is out of options. He wouldn't clear waivers.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    20 days. So they'd actually have to option one player now, then recall him and option another guy about a week before September roster expansion. Among position players, this really only applies to Sano -- I think he's the only one with options left who hasn't already used one this year (aside from Dozier, and it appears Centeno has one left too). And if we're debating whether to option Sano in 2018, we've probably got bigger problems! We could do it with a pitcher -- they could option May for less than 20 days to stretch out for starting, and swap him for Duffey later in the month. Duffey could probably use a break on innings, and May could use some extra ones thanks to his injuries (even if he doesn't open 2017 as a starter).
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It could be both things -- the Twins could be poor at developing talent, and they could promote too slowly. It's hard to separate the two, though, and obviously the first one takes precedence! I generally agree, though -- I don't think there is a systematic problem of "too slow" promotions. I think the Twins do have a problem with stacking rosters with dead-enders though (see my posts above). A team in the Twins position can and should be looking at more useful pitchers at AAA, and in MLB before September. They tend to inexplicably hold on to guys like Milone and Aaron Thompson for too long, denying opportunities for more interesting pitchers, and leave a lot more questions for themselves every November (around Rule 5 protection time) and every spring.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. Ramirez in particular doesn't seem to be contributing much to any Rochester playoff push, and he will be a minor league free agent at season's end if not added back to the 40-man roster. It seems beyond obvious to drop Milone and Ramirez, and promote Chargois and Jones or Melotakis in their place. You could even make a case for dropping Dean, he's had a poor season at AAA and will be dropped from the 40-man in a couple months anyway. (Unfortunately, Darnell is hurt, but they could start Baxendale in his place, or promote a AA starter -- Hurlbut, Slegers, or Eades.)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, Milone being on the roster right now is pointless. Nothing against Milone, but with the acquisition of Santiago, he has virtually no chance of being on the team in 2017. He's not going to build any waiver trade interest as a mop-up reliever either. He's only owed $1.5 mil at this point, if no one claims him, just send him outright to AAA again if he accepts. He can reinforce Rochester's rotation for the stretch drive, or if he elects to forfeit the salary, he can get a head start on free agency. Chargois, Mejia, Light, and Melotakis are all on the 40-man roster and more worthwhile investments of MLB innings for the 2016 Twins at this point. Jones, Baxendale, and Wheeler will all be eligible for the Rule 5 draft too if they are not added to the roster in November, so one or more could deserve a look right now. You could probably even make a case to look at former first rounder Wimmers, or re-evaluate the magic LOOGY potential of O'Rourke, both of whom will be minor league free agents this winter if not added to the 40-man roster. (By the way, nice article. I'm not sure the sample size lends itself to much analysis, but I appreciate the effort!)
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    6 IP, 5 R for Nolasco tonight. But great K and BB rate! Classic Nolasco. True to form, Santiago went 5 innings, yielding 4 runs -- slightly fewer innings, but a slightly lower ERA too!
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Um, no? B-Ref WAR is based on actual runs allowed, not FIP components. With park factors, like ERA+. And they aren't mutually exclusive, you can use both. They both establish that Santiago has been better, but WAR is nice in that it can reward pitching more innings, which is a skill and can have some value, and in general WAR can put the comparison in terms of runs and wins, which is easier to compare. How much money is 10 extra ERA+ points worth? What might be a better investment, +10 ERA+ or +10 OPS+? Like any stat, WAR isn't perfect, and I am sure teams have their own proprietary things that are better, but I think it is clearly a useful tool in the toolbox for these fan discussions.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    WAR at B-Ref is not based on FIP. Not sure to whom you are responding, but that is the WAR I was using (and I noted as such in my post).
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, 2015 Tonkin never allowed more than 2 runs in any single game...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, he was throw out going to first, then doubled off first because he went too far toward second, and the got caught between second and third. Mauer only needs to get thrown out between third and home to complete the cycle!
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Meyer? Could be that the Twins were being extra cautious with him, trying to avoid further complications while they shopped him in trade. Now that he's been moved, I wouldn't be surprised if the Angels are more aggressive about getting him back in action.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Did Carlos Santana not read this article?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Not everyone thinks he will be non-tendered! It is Santiago's last arb season. Pretty much every non-elite guy looking at non-trivial scratch is kind of a borderline non-tender by that point (i.e. Plouffe). But at this point, if I had to guess, I'd guess he was tendered. But the new GM should have all of November to sign or trade for someone before that decision has to be made.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    I can confirm that it is streaming in-market on the MLB Network web site (after you log in with your TV provider account): http://m.mlb.com/network/live
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. A low-risk flyer. The fact that he was healthy and eating innings with a 82 ERA+ isn't very valuable on its own, although I suppose some desperate team could plug a hole with it, especially in August -- it's better than, say, calling up Kyle Lohse! or perhaps trading for Kevin Correia circa 2014 -- but I think it easily satisfies a threshold of more general interest. He's been healthy and non-disastrous this year, I think it's fair to say he'd generate decent interest as a $3-4 mil flyer or August hole-plugger. This trade kind of confirms that -- I doubt the Angels would have made this deal if Nolasco were really on the cusp on release, like Edwin Jackson last year. They may have done something around Santiago for Meyer, but they wouldn't have agreed to pay Nolasco $8 mil next year if he was an absolute zero.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not saying he had value to the Twins. What I'm saying is, a pitcher eating innings with a low-80's ERA+ generally still has some absolute value in the league. Particularly if they have some past record of decent performance like Nolasco, solid peripherals, and a great case for change-of-scenery (he's only ever struggled this much in Minnesota). Heck, the Dodgers paid $1.5 mil in salary (plus I think a modest cash payment to the Twins, I thought I heard $250k) for less than 2 months of Kevin Correia in 2014. Someone would have paid $3-4 mil for Nolasco right now if we were willing to eat the rest of his salary, I am sure, just as a low-risk flyer / innings eater.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    More on the surprising timing of the trade: while it was made on the non-waiver deadline day, and couldn't have been made in August (Meyer would have been claimed), the entire trade could have been made in the offseason too. On flexibility: by making this trade now, while it does give the new GM the choice to tender Santiago or save $8 mil this winter, doesn't it also preclude the new GM from being able to salvage something more from Meyer and, to a lesser extent, from Nolasco? Meyer still had an option year in 2017, and Nolasco still had time on his deal. Hopefully our new head of baseball ops is looking at the personnel and practices that contributed to Meyer's and Nolasco's problems here, and working to address them quickly. Obviously, we won't know for sure, but it feels like this trade, and the Santiago or $8 mil savings options, could have still been on the table in October.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps. Although it should be noted that Milone is and will be cheaper. Acquiring Santiago and intending to tender him probably precludes us from taking a cheap flyer on Milone or another SP this winter -- not that I have a lot of faith in Milone, but given his track record, there are probably worse ways to spend a couple mil for rotation depth. A buy-low FA SP might have been an interesting use of the spot too. Didn't you often make the point that more expensive players are generally harder to cut/demote/replace? Santiago at $8 mil next year should have a shorter leash than Nolasco at $12 mil, but both are way ahead of Milone at whatever he is going to make (have to imagine an arb cut would be in his future, if not a nontender and cheap re-sign), or some Bud Norris like FA. Milone could probably even be sent outright off the 40-man roster to AAA again as needed (he will still be short of 5 years service time for a bit longer, so he couldn't elect free agency without forfeiting the salary).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I know, I thought that too. The argument can cut both ways, depending on what you need from the rotation spot, etc. Mediocre innings do seem to have some value -- maybe not to us, but to someone else in a different situation.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I think our Twins-colored glasses obscure a few facts. As bad as Nolasco has been, he didn't have zero absolute value. He had severe negative value relative to his salary, but healthy and eating innings at an 82 ERA+ level this year, he had some modest absolute value. A little credit to the Twins, I suppose, for not unloading him before he was back and healthy, and for not shuffling him to the bullpen yet which could have sapped his value further. And likewise, as frustrating as Meyer has been, he didn't have zero absolute value either. He had negative value relative to where he was 1-2 years ago, but he too still had some modest absolute value. More credit to the Twins for keeping him away from surgery this long, even if he's missed a lot of action -- shoulder surgery would have reduced his value much more than being inactive with an apparently clean MRI. As disappointing/frustrating as they were, neither pitcher was in particular danger of being released for nothing. That we combined them to get Santiago + Busenitz, or $8 mil salary relief + Busenitz if we non-tender Santiago, was a little surprising because of the combination and the timing, but it really wasn't that far off from their present value (even if you like the trade).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I'll agree that Santiago is better at the moment, but the edge probably isn't that dramatic. As recently as July 1st, Nolasco was actually having a slightly better 2016 season than Santiago. Even now, after a nice past month from Santiago, the difference is fairly slim -- 0.3 WAR for Nolasco, vs 0.9 WAR for Santiago. 2015 obviously Santiago has an advantage (1.8 WAR) over Nolasco's lost season. In 2014, Nolasco was exactly replacement level, but Santiago was only worth 0.5 WAR himself. In 2013, Santiago was worth a nice 2.8 WAR, but Nolasco wasn't far behind at 1.8 WAR (pre-Twins, obviously ). This is all bWAR, mind you, so it's not counting any FIP advantage. These numbers include Santiago's better performance with runners on base. Not to mention, Santiago's career high in IP is only 180, a mark that Nolasco exceeded 5 times in the non-DH league, and was on pace to exceed again in 2016 despite his age and mediocre performance.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it is on you to find a link or example that says otherwise. The Dodgers in particular have sent tons of money with players, and every player that has been dealt again, the third team inherited the Dodgers contribution. "Send cash" is just shorthand, I am sure you can find many examples of trades reported as "team X will pay this part of player Y's salary" too.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Never? If Antony said, we can send $13 mil with Nolasco and open his roster spot, or we can send $6.4 mil with him, take on an additional ~$8 mil in obligations for a different player, and send a prospect too perhaps valued at ~$5 mil, the Pohlads would gladly approve of one of those deals, but would never approve the other? I think we are letting our Nolasco hate obscure how close those deals are, in terms of financial impact.
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