Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    It is pretty clear that Meyer had some value, to make the trade happen at all. Also not clear that Santiago can get flipped next year for more. I think this trade suggests his value isn't that high even when he is successful, and is likely to go down as his salary increases and he gets even closer to FA next year (especially if his performance slips at all next year). Agreed that we didn't have great assets to deal, so I too am generally satisfied with the deadline.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Only if you completely ignore his 66.2 innings in college last year too. He was starting from a seasonal base of 85 innings last year, which is no reason to drop him to then pen at 80 this year.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. Mauer too!
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    While it was relief work, Jay threw a combined 85 innings last year, between college and the pros. When they moved him to the pen a few weeks ago, he had 79.2 IP in 15 GS, and was scheduled to start 7 more times assuming a 6-man rotation. That would have put him on track to pitch 117 innings this year, which I would have thought was a safe number. Maybe they had specific concerns about his health? Maybe they have AFL plans for him?
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Jay didn't exactly dominate in his first two starts at AA, or outside the month of May at high-A, so I'm not sure if another promotion is warranted (assuming he is healthy, of course).
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Bryce Harper is scheduled to hit FA after 2018, and Jose Fernandez too...
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    They expect JD Martinez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Daniel Norris back soon, so they don't really have a ton of areas to address. Maybe a bullpen arm? Although they could demote a couple SP to the pen when Zimmermann and Norris return, or pick up a waiver guy in August.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, that is correct. That is the procedure for establishing priority in trade assignment (August) waivers, so NL teams probably wouldn't be awarded a claim on Suzuki,
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, Seattle is a good example of a fringe contender (or non-contender) that could put in a claim for Suzuki, but not offer a lot in trade. That's why it was disappointing we didn't move him yesterday -- hard to believe Cleveland is really rolling down the stretch with Perez/Jimenez at catcher (although technically Gomes might come back very late in the season). I guess guys like AJ, Iannetta, Ruiz, etc. should clear waivers in August, maybe even Hundley or Soto, so they're not shut out yet.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    $6.4 million. We are paying Nolasco's remaining salary for 2016 ($2.4 mil more than Santiago's), plus $4 mil for 2017. Not a huge difference, but there seems to be some confusion on the matter.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Little known factoid: the original title of the book "Moneyball" was "Dollars to Donuts." Or should that be "Donuts to Dollars"?
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting. Now I'm curious what DEF is, I assumed it was basically just UZR plus a positional adjustment (which should be roughly the same for all the teams in the AL), but now I'm not so sure. UZR is already the sum of ARM, DPR, RngR, and ErrR so I'm not sure why the Angels UZR gets a 10 run boost to DEF, while the Twins UZR gets a 23 run demerit to DEF. In any case, defense as measured by the metrics doesn't seem to explain much of Nolasco's ERA-FIP discrepancy.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair, I just thought "significant portion" was a little strong.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Repeating the exercise for his Marlins career (I'll ignore 2013 as it was split between Miami and LA).... 2006-2012 Marlins: -139 UZR, -313 (!) DRS 2006-2012 Nolasco pitched 11% of the Marlins innings His "share" of the larger DRS under-performance would have been 35 runs, dropping his ERA from 4.49 to 4.21. By UZR, it's only 15 runs, dropping his ERA from 4.49 to 4.37. His FIP in those years was 3.83.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    I like to see new guys in general, and it's fairly clear that Nolasco would never "click" here, so I share this sentiment.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Not sure where you get 150 in that range. I see a 107 run difference since the start of 2014 by both DRS and UZR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d Nolasco has pitched 8.4% of the Twins innings since 2014. His proportional share of the DRS/UZR deficit would be about 9 runs. That would drop his Twins ERA from 5.44 to 5.19. His Twins FIP is 4.20. I don't think your conclusion is "safe" at all.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I think it's a fair deal, but "potential mid rotation starter" is probably a little too vague to be useful. Was Tommy Milone a "potential mid rotation starter" this past winter? Evidence suggests he and Santiago aren't too different in terms of performance. Packaging Nolasco and Meyer for a slightly more expensive Milone with less team control sounds a little less nice than your phrasing!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    True, although I think teams also try to be fairly selective about what guys it puts on August waivers. For example, the Twins aren't going to put Buxton or Sano on waivers, or probably even Tonkin or Rogers. Suzuki and Kintzler may not be in that class, but if we try to put them through waivers when they are performing well and offer affordable 2017 control, we might be pushing that boundary a bit, so I don't think it would be out of the question for a non-contender to put in a claim without fear of retaliation. It wouldn't necessarily be about blocking at that point. If they were both pending FA, or had a mildly prohibitive 2017 price tag, it would be a different story.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd probably put Santiago as more of a #4 by performance, even with his solid ERA, just because he doesn't throw that many innings. But yeah, it's an interesting swap.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure it's possible, if Nolasco pitches fantastically. I'm not sure it really matters at that point, though -- the Angels would probably want him back at that price in 2018 if he pitches fantastically for them. And Nolasco would probably rather hit the open market after 2017 instead. I don't see a case where the Angels get locked into 2018 with Nolasco against their will. Far more likely, Nolasco could get locked into 2018 with the Angels mildly against his will, if he pitches well for them but doesn't quite make 400 IP.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. If Nolasco keeps his current 2016 IP/GS average (which at almost 6 isn't bad), he will finish with 190 IP this year. Meaning he'd have to basically hit his career high in IP in 2017 (212) to make that a player option. Of course, if he is effective enough to get anywhere near 212 innings next year, or to average 7 IP per start down the stretch this year to get to 200, there is a decent chance the Angels would want him back for 2018 at $13 mil. Still, it shouldn't be hard to keep it a team option regardless.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    I was just about to post this comparison. Santiago and Milone get there from different ways, but it seems they are both modestly effective left-handers who aren't that valuable around the league, for whatever reason. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4026,7608
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    For those suggesting that we can flip Santiago this winter or next summer -- doesn't this trade sorta suggest Santiago doesn't have much value? Not saying it is a bad trade for the Twins, but it seems worth noting that the Angels have been shopping Santiago and only wound up with Nolasco and an apparently injured Meyer. Of course, the Angels are a bit of a weird team, with a tendency to make odd moves, and this might be one of them...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he means "except" as in "only."
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    Keep in mind, folks: it is $4 mil next year, plus $2.4 mil this year. $6.4 mil total the Twins are sending with Nolasco. Assuming they tender Santiago (and I would be surprised if the didn't), they are not saving any money right now.
×
×
  • Create New...