Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Otto von Ballpark

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    20,669

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    74

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    No way -- plenty of guys have hit inside the park home runs, even if Fielder was an unlikely candidate. This has to be the best Prince Fielder moment: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT7FGQls0KM
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think Brian McCann has been a lotto ticket, even if he hasn't been a star; Martin hasn't been much of one either, pending how he can finish out this season, I suppose (although he was older when he signed his deal too, so I don't know if him failing would be great evidence against Ramos anyway)). I highly doubt Ramos was ever seriously a non-tender candidate last offseason. It was only one bad season at the plate, partially offset by defense, and he was only due to make $5.35 in arb for his age 28 season in 2016. No way any team non-tenders such a player given the scarcity of catchers. Also, Ramos currently sits at a 147 OPS+. I don't know where he'll finish, I would certainly bet the "under" on that figure in any future season, but I don't think it's fair to characterize his range of offensive proficiency as anywhere near that of, say, Suzuki, who has peaked at 105.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    The only thing I can think of, is that the ratings are so low for these particular games, the financial benefit to FSN doesn't outweigh the production costs (either running your own crew, or paying the other team's broadcaster if you simulcast). It doesn't even seem to have anything to do with encouraging ballpark attendance -- looks like their are 3 unbroadcasted road games this year, compared with 5 home games (one of which was July 4th which later got picked up by ESPN). Maybe increased use of Fox Sports Go will help -- weekday afternoon games should get more eyeballs if people can watch on their computers or mobile devices.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Garver has to be added this winter anyway, or left exposed to the Rule 5 draft. (Turner too.) So they already have to make those decisions regardless of whether they add them in September or November. At least if you add them in September (or now), they can get some MLB reps before next spring. Suzuki would also come off the 40-man roster this winter. Centeno might a remove and re-sign candidate (he was a minor league free agent last winter). Heck, Murphy could possibly clear waivers and be outrighted if we really needed a spot.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    FSN could just simulcast the other team's feed, like MLB Network does. I feel like they have done that before...? Maybe it's worth a tweet at them?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not necessarily on the Ramos bandwagon, but I wouldn't discount him yet. The point of my posts above is to suggest that the market hasn't necessarily priced catchers unreasonably before. If we preclude consideration of the top FA catchers because we don't want to pay for the extra catcher risks, we might essentially be double-counting those risks because they are already reflected in the market price. If Ramos finishes strong and fetches 4/60, that's not necessarily bad. A short-term veteran may require $5-10 mil himself, so really you are just paying an extra $50-55 mil for Ramos, on his age 29-32 seasons, with demonstrated 4+ WAR upside. Also, he's often had a manageable K rate, and it's gotten even lower this year after LASIK surgery -- that low K rate could be something the Twins lineup sorely lacks. If an internal option develops, I think Ramos at those terms would be movable during the contract under most outcomes, thanks to the perpetual weak catching market. Even if Ramos bottoms out like 2015 again, his defense kept him worth 0.8 bWAR that season. Arizona got out from under 3/40 of Miguel Montero who posted a 0.8 bWAR combined for his age 29-30 seasons. It's a lot harder for a young catcher's market value to crater than, say, Ricky Nolasco's -- there just aren't a lot of alternatives.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Ramos will be 3 years younger than Martin when he signed that deal, and even with his great season, most experts cap the length of a Ramos deal at 4 years. That would run through his age 32 season -- Martin last season, or Brian McCann this season. A team signing Ramos will not be stuck with his age 33-35 seasons. Also, it seems you are being a little harsh/selective on Martin. He's at an 84 OPS+ for the season right now, which isn't necessarily backup level for a catcher -- that, plus good defense/framing is often acceptable for a starting catcher, and it's pretty much what we were hoping Murphy would do to claim the starting job here. And so far, Martin's 84 OPS+ for the season is largely affected by a disastrous April -- since May 1st, his OPS is .742, equal to Suzuki's 2016 season number. Since June 1st, his OPS is .800. Obviously the poor start still counts, I am not asking anyone to throw it out, but it doesn't quite fit the neat little narrative that he is collapsing at age 33 and bound to get worse.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins most certainly could have dealt with "adequate" Mauer if he was still a full-time catcher. Adequate catchers are very valuable. I am sure the Yankees would have liked a higher level of offense from McCann, but I think a large part of what they were buying was his floor, not his ceiling.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    McCann has been worth 4.6 bWAR / 5.3 fWAR in his first two full years of that deal. And that doesn't including framing (not sure where he ranks, though). Less than $7 mil per win. This year he's a little lower but he's getting dinged in fielding by -4, not sure if that's real or just a small sample issue. And he's been pretty consistent/durable which has value to a contender -- the Yankees basically haven't had to worry about the catcher position, invest other resources into it, rush their catching prospects, etc. because of confidence in McCann's high floor, even if he hasn't much exceeded it so far. I know McCann apparently cleared trade waivers this month, but I wouldn't read too much into that -- the Yankees weren't going to let him go for nothing so I think that influenced potential claims.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    With positive defense! After a respectable 88 OPS+ last year. Also, while McCann is the nominal starter in Detroit, Salty has been seeing significant action and has a .716 OPS. I think you can make a case that John Hicks' lack of MLB opportunity there so far is based on a defensible decision to stick with that pair, rather than try to break-in Hicks during a pennant race. (Hicks doesn't even have the benefit of spring training working with the Detroit pitching staff, having been acquired in April.) Not that Hicks has great value or anything, but I wouldn't read too much into him still being in AAA. The fact that he's still on their 40-man roster, and 3rd on their depth chart (meaning they didn't try to acquire anyone else at the deadline), suggests they are still comfortable with him and giving him an opportunity if the need arises.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, I'm not sure that this is true. First off, it seems the market already corrects for this a bit -- there haven't been a lot of big money FA catcher deals. Secondly, the ones that have happened appear to be working out OK. Russell Martin had a dreadful start to the season, but he is slowly climbing back -- .800 OPS since June 1st, he could easily finish about league average for the season. McCann has been pretty solid in NY too. Beyond that, there have been a few extensions. Yadier Molina's bat has slipped but his defense has kept him valuable. Miguel Montero's deal was probably a bit excessive, but Arizona was able to dump much of it on the Cubs. Obviously Posey and Mauer were mega-extensions for franchise players, a little hard to compare with the rest of this group. So basically, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the top catching option on the FA market as too expensive.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    If the July 31 trade chatter was accurate, it seems like the rest of the league may not see Suzuki as a viable defensive catcher anymore.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes. Fox retains the in-market broadcast rights even if they choose not to exercise them. We might get lucky and MLB Network will pick up the opposing team's feed.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    It's possible Pohlad is using the search firm only because Taylor recently used it, without a clear idea of WHY they are using the search firm. The new GM will quite likely be a no-name either way, I think how the young players finish the 2016 season might be a bigger driver of public perception than whatever name they bring in.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the literal reading of that theory is wrong. I doubt that Antony was the preferred choice when they fired TR. But, it wouldn't be a surprise if that happens. They knew they HAD to look outside, but it's not clear at this point whether they really understand what going outside will actually entail (i.e. how much turnover/rebuilding might be involved). It's still quite possible they get scared about committing to the vision of an outside candidate, over-value a strong finish to the 2016 season, etc., and put Antony in the chair permanently. Maybe even just on a short-term deal, kicking the can down the road a bit.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Before his most recent hire, Taylor did screw up about 10 years worth of hirings, no? I agree Antony is an unlikely hire, but at this point, I can't put his chances at near zero.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Thanks. I was primarily wondering if Parker had done any analysis of how the leg kick looked at AAA, and how it looked in MLB. But it was nice to see some positive clips about Buxton regardless!
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    I think there is probably a greater than 1% chance that whatever their intentions when they fired TR, Pohlad and DSP somehow screw it up.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Maybe. I guess I didn't see what the leg kick looked like at AAA. Anybody checking MILB.TV archived games?
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    It worked for Dozier!
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    According to the metrics, Maybin wasn't a defensive liability until 2015 (after missing a lot of time in 2013-2014). At his peak, Maybin was an average hitter, plus baserunner, plus defender (by the metrics), and a 3-4 WAR player. But that peak only lasted 2 seasons, and it looks like the defensive value started deteriorating in his age 26 season...
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That's fair -- this year's moves have seemed especially baffling. Although maybe it doesn't matter? If all he was going to be doing at Rochester was more reps with this poor excuse for a leg-kick, would it really have mattered if he spent an extra couple months there? Would it have just been wasted time?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It's important to note, this particular "demotion" was basically just an extended rehab stint. The Twins did the same with Arcia in May 2014. I think late April 2016 was his first "real" demotion. A bunch of folks here were encouraged by this one. His OPS was climbing last September, and his K rate dropping. Hit a couple HR near the end of the season. Seemed like most folks here thought he had made enough progress to open 2016 in MLB, even if he was still very much a work in progress at the plate with most of his value coming from defense.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    That's kind of where I am at. I certainly think Buxton can make it, but he has SO far to go, and seems to get injured so frequently, he may be 3-4 years into his MLB career before he gets to an acceptable level. And even then, who knows how well his adjustments will stick long-term. I keep coming back to Carlos Gomez, who became a great MLB player at ages 27-28 -- but before and after that, has been useful at times but pretty "meh." And it seems Buxton still has a lot of work to do to even get back up to the Gomez career projection.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    None of those guys had remotely the K struggles that Buxton has had. Most of them just had low BABIPs, some just lacked power. That's not all that unusual. Buxton's K's skyrocketing, and not appearing to get any better over time? That's unusual. Some of those guys weren't as dominant in the in the minor leagues either -- Carlos Gonzalez had a 90 wRC+ in AAA the same year he posted a 67 as a MLB rookie. Is that drop off really comparable to Buxton's? Brandon Phillips had a .757 career minor league OPS (in a higher-offense era), compared to Buxton's .885.
×
×
  • Create New...