Otto von Ballpark
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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark
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Article: Deadline Primer: Internal Options
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
But then they would be responsible for the player's salary. I limited that paragraph to guys like Milone last year, and no one was going to claim him at that price if he wasn't performing -- and if he was performing, obviously the Twins wouldn't be sending him to the minors! -
Article: Deadline Primer: Internal Options
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This is true, but also, the waiver period is actually only 72 hours for players on optional assignment to the minors, like Melotakis was. I still think that waivers might "reset" once a player is re-added to the 40-man, but it is mostly a moot point. It would really only impact a certain class of player (making a decent salary but with less than 5 years service time, like Milone last year, so they can't refuse the assignment without forfeiting their salary). And if such a player clears waivers once, he would probably be likely to clear again. So it doesn't really matter if the team can skip waivers on him the second time. -
Article: Deadline Primer: Internal Options
Otto von Ballpark replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
That is incorrect. Waivers would have to be requested anew if he were added back. The waiver period only means they could have delayed outrighting him, it does not mean they get to outright him more than once.- 37 replies
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- john curtiss
- fernando romero
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Seems a little harsh, given the circumstances: https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/27/jose-quintana-white-sox-trade-rumors I would think the last 4 years of 18 bWAR would have caused you to reconsider...
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Sorry, didn't mean it in a remedial sense. Meant that he's seen upper minors action last season and this season, so his relatively low regard among evaluators isn't due to lack of exposure.
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If you make that as your starting offer, though, I don't think they bother asking for significantly more. They already know what the answer will be. Gordon is a nice prospect, and he's having a nice year -- he's a respectable piece in any package. But I think the Rays, the Twins, and everyone else understands that it's not even worth discussing Archer unless you are ready to include another prospect equivalent to Gordon in value. Which the Twins don't even have, unless you want to include Lewis.
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Why? Unless you're going to add Romero-plus and/or Lewis to the mix, it's not going to get it done. What exactly would they converse about?
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That package (Gordon, Gonsalves, Kirilloff) is a non-starter for Archer or Stroman. So yes, you are basically saying you won't ever entertain any major trades.
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I know we see top org prospects and we think Sano, Buxton, Berrios, or even Kepler, or from the past Mauer and Morneau. But here's a list of other top 5 Twins org prospects, as graded by Sickels at B+ or better (to help weed out some of the big fish from our shallower prospect ponds) from the past 10 years: Meyer, Stewart, Hicks, Arcia, Gibson, Wimmers, Revere, Robertson, Garza, Slowey, Parmelee. Other top 5 guys who topped out at a B grade include Jay, Rosario, Hendriks, Ramos, Hunt, Morlan, Manship, and Perkins. What's the real hit rate for that group? Don't forget to discount if they took a long time getting there (i.e. Perkins, maybe Hicks). If you're non-elite and/or not particularly close to the majors, these guys aren't necessarily super-valuable. Obviously it varies by player, but I'm seeing nothing here to say the "3 of our top 5" should simply be off the table, without consideration.
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You realize you are basically saying you won't even consider anything other than a minor trade, right? 3 out of an org's top 5 is pretty meaningless without context. And the context here would include a SP repeating AA but still outside of most top 100 lists (Gonsalves), and a corner outfielder selected 15th overall who has yet to play outside of rookie league ball. I get holding onto elite prospects like Buxton and Sano were, or guys who are ready for immediate MLB contribution, but I don't see much pointing in not even considering dealing other guys. (I could be swayed by the idea that Quintana is not the same quality "hidden ace" target he would have been 6 months ago. But that's about Quintana and not about "3 of our top 5 prospects")
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Quintana for a guaranteed 2017 pennant race, and then at 3/30 (the last two years being team options), covering his age 28-31 seasons, is certainly not available in free agency.
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Whom do you trade Dozier for? I don't even think a Jose De Leon type would be on the table anymore. (Well, the actual injured Jose De Leon probably would be, but not a SP prospect with his offseason ranking.)
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How would you say that Quintana is a "hidden ace" but you wouldn't consider that package? If you believe that about Quintana, you'd pretty much have to consider it and quite possibly pull the trigger if the White Sox were willing. (I think the White Sox might ask for a significant 4th piece, or just use the offer to drive up bids from other clubs, but that's another issue from whether the Twins should consider it.)
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Straily is obviously a modest target. But the Marlins do have a couple interesting relievers in Ramos and Phelps. A package deal might make sense.
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That offer doesn't even register for a pitcher who is better than Quintana (and such a pitcher isn't even on the market right now anyway). Gordon is a nice prospect, no doubt, but it looks like he might have a little helium right now. Gonsalves is young with nice numbers, but with his stuff he's almost universally regarded as having little chance to be an ace himself. Kirilloff is a wild card, obviously, but if he becomes anything, it seems likely to be a non-elite corner player, right? To add a guy like like Quintana -- even though he's not an ace -- for a guaranteed pennant race (2017) plus 3 more controllable seasons (2018-2020), if anything that seems light from the Twins perspective. Note that Quintana's salary is low enough to not prevent us from still making a FA splash if we choose to do so, and the 3 remaining years of control give us plenty of opportunity to recoup value either in performance or another trade (think Price getting dealt a second time).
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I will take all of that as a compliment!
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And that one repeat opening day starting shortstop? Why, Pedro Florimon, of course!
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FYI, for whatever reason, I think edits might break it. At least they did for me earlier today.
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"Copy link to Tweet" on Twitter (^ drop down menu), then just paste it on its own line in your comment here. Once submitted, the site will automatically parse it and display the tweet.
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But if the reason other teams would trade for Santana now is because he's cheaper, doesn't that also mean the Twins would get a lower return? The question isn't, will other yes want Santana? It is, will other teams want Santana at a price that makes it worthwhile for the Twins to move him? Given the way his season has trended, and that the Twins themselves are fringe contenders this year, that seems doubtful.
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Polanco is out of options, otherwise I suspect he would have been sent down long ago.
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Ask the Orioles: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/brewers-acquire-international-signing-slots-from-orioles.html
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The Phillies have a guy named Altherr. Any chance we could deal Altbrunansky for him?
