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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, 5 years is a major difference from 1 year. But aside from 2017 ERA, they are completely different pitchers, so it's pretty much irrelevant to trying to compare their respective values.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Only catch would be if they were fairly marginal returns, and they thought keeping them for the final 2 months might help retain them for 2018 if they so desire.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Right, that's basically what I meant. Kintzler's only somewhat meaningful "advantage" over Neshek is saves (or more accurately, closer experience), and that's pretty meaningless in the context of this trade market. He trails Neshek in virtually every other consideration (current season performance, career performance, peripherals, postseason experience). It's still possible for him to get a slightly better return, because the market isn't that precise and there are plenty of shifting external factors, but it won't be because Kintzler is 32 and Neshek is 36.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously they don't, since they didn't put him on their 40-man roster. But I will add, it didn't generate much mention in the local press here either -- a quick Google search says it was only noted by the Star Tribune in the Garcia trade story, because it was clearing a 40-man roster spot. And since it didn't involve any kind of 40-man spot for Boston, it's not surprising if it was not mentioned there at all.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    How do you get Phelps as "similar" to Rogers, even aside from handedness and age? Phelps has struck out 30.2% of all batters faced dating back to opening day 2016. That even includes a stretch of 5 starts last August where he struck out 32.7% of batters, with a 2.22 ERA and 2.94 FIP over 24.1 IP. By comparison, Rogers had a 24.2% K rate last year which has plummeted to 18.9% this year. Both figures largely propped up by higher rates vs LHB. Rogers has a ton more team control (5 years after this year, vs 1 for Phelps), but they are such different pitchers I don't think Phelps' price in trade has any bearing on that of Rogers right now. I get that Rogers has been a strong contributor to our 2017 pen, but he would get valued at something closer to a LOOGY on the open market right now.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Why would anyone care about age for a 2 month rental? No slight to Kintzler, but Neshek is unquestionably having the better season, a better career (including a previous all star selection), and postseason experience. Kintzler does have more saves but it appears most clubs are interested in adding setup men anyway, not closers.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Cite? I think a few million can sometimes be a condition on which a deal is dependent, but I really doubt it meaningfully swings prospect quality. In 2013 many here were saying the Twins should eat Morneau's salary to get a better return, but it was quite clear that the cheap Pirates were resisting paying it at all, not that they were haggling over prospect quality. I think you'd have to get into more extreme amounts, likely tens of millions, to seriously affect prospect negotiations. Remember it took ~$10 mil for Atlanta to "buy" Toussaint from Arizona a couple years back (although Arizona GM Dave Stewart has been fired since then, so maybe that is a touch low?).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Hurlbut is almost 3 years older (he turns 28 in November), this is the first time in years that he has eclipsed 6 K/9 (Sleger has never been below that figure), and his H/9 last year was 11.0 and this year 10.0 -- Slegers has never given up as many as 10 H/9. Others would be better experts in the scouting department, but Slegers has a few extra MPH on his fastball, I know. One thing Hurlbut has going for him is that he is eligible to declare minor league free agency after this season. If we want to retain him, maybe a MLB cup of coffee would help? Slegers will be Rule 5 eligible again if not added to the 40-man, but he's 2 years away from minor league free agency. Depending on the 40-man picture, I probably would lean no on both, though. Will teams really want Slegers in Rule 5? Remember that no one else wanted Haley.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I think he meant it would be, at best, a neutral outcome for the Twins. They could have released him if they wanted. And pending Palka's fate, we could have perhaps used his roster spot better. Again, not saying we lost the trade, but we probably didn't "win" it either.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Chad Moeller for Hanley Frias was the other Twins - Arizona trade. I'd say that was neutral outcome for the Twins.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, Garcia is scheduled to pitch tomorrow night. Even if we are listening to offers on him, I'd be pretty surprised if got something done that quickly. Tomorrow's game is in Oakland, though, so maybe you could say "never pitches for the Twins in Minneapolis."
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    While Berrios didn't throw many innings in MLB last year, I think he threw a lot of pitches. I would guess there is no restriction on his innings this year, unless his performance seriously fades... in which case it's probably a moot point.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I've actually grown to appreciate the losing as well as the winning. A community like TD has been pretty great in that regard, it's fun to post here - win or lose (or draw).
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    From AA, you'd think there would be a decent chance of his selection in Rule 5. But then again, there always seem to be a bunch of relievers with big K/9 numbers at AA who don't get picked, or get chosen and then returned. Moya is younger than most, but maybe with less overpowering stuff? I would expect he would get protected. Maybe even get a look in MLB yet this season. We don't seem to like most of the relief prospects already in our upper minors.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Still time for the Twins to activate Perkins and serve up another 3 run HR to Murphy when we play Arizona in August!
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Moya is leading all AA pitchers in K%, minimum 30 IP. (Drop the minimum to 20, and only Nik Turley bests him ) Although I am not sure how well this correlates to future success, for relievers at least.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup, that is Oakland right now (tied for 5th worst record in MLB).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    And lost that opportunity because our shallow / shaky bullpen was repeatedly exposed. This is supposed to make us feel better how?
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Moya was Rule 5 eligible last winter, and not selected. Which also means he will be Rule 5 eligible this winter. (And of course he is not on the 40-man right now.)
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    How do you get "should have won"? Because they once led?
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Do you also think the Twins could hang with the Yankees from 2003-2010?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Still too much to read into "it would have been nice to have Garver PH there". I don't think anyone is claiming Garver is a savior that is going to catapult us up the standings, but he is doing quite well in AAA and is worth a look, and we have some roster openings where we could give him those opportunities without much trouble. Even conservative Seth says it is time.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    How do you get "assume he's Barry Bonds" from "it would be nice to have him PH"? Garver would be the part-time DH, 1B vs LHP, backup catcher.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, we are now as close to the second to last record in the AL (Oakland) as we are to first place in our division (5.5 games).
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    How many relievers have been dealt with a 18.9% K rate? League average is 21.6%, for relievers it is 23.3%. Rogers had a nice run this year, and he could be useful in the future too, but I can't imagine many teams that would be excited to add him for their pennant race right now, especially with how he has looked the last week. Kintzler too, really (14.6% K rate).
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