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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, it's possible that injuries had already affected his play, before the Yankees even signed him. That would mean the Yankees signing was even more of a mistake, than it was that injuries simply derailed him after the signing -- but the central point about cumulative injury effects could be similar. He had a couple serious injuries in Boston too (a whole season missed to broken ribs, plus another half season lost to a shoulder subluxation, just like Buxton!). Although once you get to the Yankees part of his career, it's hard to separate from aging effects -- he was already 30 years old when he debuted for New York. But it's possible that the cumulative injuries, effectively sped up his baseball aging process a bit too.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Is it that hard to believe a player might play through a health issue for a couple weeks before telling his team? Doesn't that happen all the time? Especially if the issue is minor enough that it doesn't seem to affect his play -- Dyson's last 7 games for the Giants, dating from the point where he says it first started bothering him, he threw 7 shutout innings, with 2 hits, 1 walk, and 7 Ks. I really doubt there was any malicious intent from the Giants here, and thus there shouldn't be any recourse for the Twins.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Definitions of "great" can vary, but Ellsbury also posted 4.2 and 4.6 fWAR (3.0 and 5.7 bWAR) seasons outside of his career year. Through his first 5 seasons, Ellsbury had a career mark of 9.7 UZR/150. Buxton's career mark is only 10.0 through his first 5 seasons. (I wonder if Ellsbury's defensive metrics are a little more volatile too, due to the Green Monster?) https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2007&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4727&startdate=&enddate=
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I was looking at hourly too -- 43% at 7 PM tonight, not going above 60% until 11 PM, and dropping to 25% by 8 PM Thursday: https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/target-field/55403/hourly-weather-forecast/53242_poi Although I'm sure this will change as we get closer. That may be so, but I'm pretty sure the Twins will exercise any discretion within a set of acceptable standards. I doubt they'd be able to cancel two games in row -- late in the season, with potential playoff implications and no possible make-up days -- that they'd otherwise try to play if they weren't down a few outfielders.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It was a bullpen game for New York, one in which they were mostly using pitchers who won't be on their playoff roster. I'm sure they'd rather win than lose, of course, but they're 99.9% to win their division, and they may even like the 2nd seed (and facing MIN in the first round, against whom they are 4-2) almost as much as the 1st seed (where they'd play either TBR 12-5, OAK 2-4, or CLE 3-4) -- even just having the certainty of knowing/preparing for a single opponent might be nicer than waiting for the wild card game outcome. (AL wild card game is scheduled for Oct. 2nd, and the ALDS begin on Oct. 4)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    That's true, but I'm guessing neither team wants to potentially play a makeup game after the 29th, let alone two. Especially Washington -- that would likely eat their only off day before the wild card game. I'd be surprised if they don't get both games in to finish this series. They may postpone tonight's game to tomorrow afternoon if necessary, and/or wait out multiple delays, but they'll try. The current forecast suggests the Thursday night game should be OK as scheduled.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, there was 1987 and 1991. It could be worse!
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Javier missed a full season, though, and was simultaneously making his full season debut. I think there were development issues at play there, beyond the injury.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    It was a 5-2 score at the time of the decision, and it was only the end of the 7th so odds were decent that the spot might come up again (with men on base). Not that I think it was evidence of Baldelli not caring, but it was a mistake.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Opinions on Twins board = worthy of mockery Opinions on Cubs board = an accurate representation of the Cubs front office
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I will say -- if he knew that many players are unavailable due to injury, Baldelli probably shouldn't have taken Cron out after his PH appearance. Cron could have gone to 1B, and Adrianza to the outfield (or Adrianza to 3B, and Arraez to the outfield). Don't put yourself into the position where you can't pinch-hit for Ryan LaMarre!
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Off to a 2-for-12 start with SFG, no XHB, although 0 K's -- so perhaps the BABIP gods will help him out soon!
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I might have expected Alejandro De Aza.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Beating Washington will serve two purposes: most obviously, a win for us to lower our magic number, but also, keeping Washington closer to the pack in the NL wild card race, making it more likely they have something to play for in their season-ending series vs Cleveland.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I imagine Cleveland fans might be brooding about getting swept by the Mets and Rays recently -- those aren't bad teams, but a team in Cleveland's position can't really afford to get swept at this point in the season. Especially when they're in direct competition with the Rays, and they haven't been absolutely perfect vs KC and CHW either. Or they're probably focused on the wild card. FWIW, the wild card wasn't an option in the 2009 Tigers-Twins pennant race as discussed above (Boston won it handily, at least over the AL Central).
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins haven't dropped a series to the Tigers yet this season (they did split one 4-gamer). The only series they've dropped against "bad teams" would be losing 2 of 3 to the White Sox, and then losing 3 of 4 to Toronto way back in April. As for struggling against good pitchers, I'd guess most teams do that, otherwise we wouldn't call it "good pitching". That said, since the start of August, we've won games against Soroka, Minor, Lynn, Lopez, and Giolito. We don't win them all, but we hold our own against good pitchers.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, the Twins schedule is easier, but Cleveland's may not be as tough as it looks. They're playing the Angels without Trout right now. Philly may be virtually eliminated by the time Clevelands plays them. And they get to play Washington at the very end of the season, when Washington's wild card spot may be wrapped up.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    How might a 2009-Tigers-esque collapse/comeback look in 2019? Twins (9-10): 1-2 vs WSN 1-2 vs CLE 1-2 vs CHW 4-3 vs KC 2-1 vs DET Cleveland (14-4): 3-0 vs LAA 2-1 vs MIN 3-0 vs DET 2-1 vs PHI 2-1 vs CHW 2-1 vs WSN Cleveland's already 1-0 in this quest, with a win over LAA last night. This would lead us to a tie after 162, forcing another game 163. The odds of this happening aren't too high, though -- Fangraphs still gives us 97.1% odds right now at winning the division in 2019. Only 2.2% odds of a tie atop the AL Central. (Yes, those odds were probably similar at this time for the 2009 Tigers )
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually, the 2009 Tigers had a 5.5 game lead with 19 scheduled games left to play, just like the 2019 Twins before Cleveland won yesterday (I think you were counting the game 163 tiebreaker as part of the last 19 in 2009). The 2009 Twins even had 1 fewer game remaining (18) than the Tigers, just like 2019 Cleveland entering play yesterday. Interestingly, those 2009 Tigers even managed a near split -- 3-4 -- head-to-head with the Twins over those last 19, but still blew the lead. Overall the Tigers were 9-10 in that span, and the Twins 14-4 -- so the Twins were 10-1 in non-Tigers games in that stretch! All common opponents too. 2009 Twins (14-4): 2-0 vs CLE (65-97 that season) 3-0 vs CHW (79-83) 5-1 vs KC (65-97) 4-3 vs DET 2009 Tigers (9-10): 1-2 vs KC (65-97) 2-4 vs CHW (79-83) 3-0 vs CLE (65-97) 3-4 vs MIN
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    If you don't expect Kirilloff to make an immediate impact anyway, and you're just looking for a bat upgrade on Miller and LaMarre, why not just call up De Aza? He was raking at AAA. He has experience, and there's zero long-term cost/risk to the move. FWIW, I think Wade has been taking decent at-bats and getting on base, no? Plus Arraez can play the outfield, with Schoop at second... Adrianza and Astudillo too. Maybe Garver should see some reps out there? It's not like we really *have* to play Miller or LaMarre right now. And I'd expect a few more options to become available again soon (i.e. Cave).
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, Kepler came from AA in 2015 -- but was already on the 40-man roster (and had been for 2 years at that point). There was zero cost to give him a taste of big league action then. I believe Kubel was already on the 40-man in 2004 too, in his first option year (and of course he saw extensive action at AAA that season).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Cleveland begins a 3 game series with the Angels tonight -- just as Trout is out for a few days: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/mike-trout-day-to-day-after-foot-procedure.html
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    He can probably sit with the team in the dugout, if that's the kind of playoff experience you want to give him. There are a few costs -- chiefly, one less 40-man spot to protect another player or claim/sign someone this winter. Also would make it more likely an option is used on Kirilloff in 2020. An offseason or spring training injury (a non-negligible risk with Kirilloff) could require him to go on the MLB DL and collect service time. Nothing insurmountable, if the guy is a ready phenom, but I have my doubts about that at the moment. Even if he quickly manages 2019 Cave/Schoop/Arraez/Adrianza level performance, but parks one of those guys on the bench, you haven't really gained anything.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know -- there's a huge difference between AA (even playoffs) and MLB, especially the MLB postseason. And we're not to the point of starting LaMarre in the playoffs yet or anything -- I know everybody seems banged up right now, but I'd expect Cave to be back, at least. And Arraez can play the outfield with Schoop taking over 2B, and Adrianza as a capable reserve. (And I'd still expect one of Kepler, Buxton, and Marwin to make it back too.) Edit to add: we also may need a spot for Carved when Castro starts behind the plate... Are we really expecting Kirilloff to make some adjustment to be meaningfully better than Cave, Arraez, Schoop in just 3 weeks? By facing Detroit and KC pitchers, no less? I remember Kubel dominating multiple levels in 2004, including AAA, and even looking pretty good in his September MLB debut, only to get exposed pretty badly in ALDS Game 2 vs the Yankees...
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