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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    On #3, see my reply to Markos above. Unless they were closer than we thought to accepting De Leon staight up, that was never a meaningful possibility. And cheaply renting Garcia wouldn't preclude that. On #1, we're not talking about evaluating scouts and systems and the full minor leagues. We are talking about a handful of MLB pitchers who Falvey and Levine should have been plenty familiar with. Gibson was terrible in 2016, Santiago was terrible with the Twins in 2016, Hughes was terrible and very seriously injured in 2016, and May was both shaky and hurt in a bullpen role the past season. And they didn't have to give up on any of them, just get another arm to stretch our resources to cover the inevitable gaps. If they can't balance that basic consideration with the other duties and responsibilities of being a GM, then I would seriously question not just their baseball judgement, but their basic fitness for the job.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    That's not much of a defense. There was never much demand for Dozier. Counting on that return would be akin to expecting top prospects in trade for Ervin Santana. I'm going to give the FO some credit and assume that while they kept a dialogue open with the Dodgers, they weren't counting on that outcome, especially not into January. If they were, then we might be in more trouble than I thought. Plus, had they acquired Garcia first and then another pitcher later, they could have pivoted on Garcia too. Or Santiago, whose contract wasn't fully guaranteed, etc. (FWIW, Cahill signed late as well.)
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    There is no DL in the offseason, so there are only 40 spots until late March. At that point the Twins could move Burdi the 60-day, which could come in handy if they roster a minor league contract guy at the same time. You might be onto something about the Braves and Burdi in Rule 5 -- they drafted an injured guy before. Although maybe the scuttled trade was the Twins trying to discourage other teams from drafting him -- teams don't get medical info on players before the Rule 5 draft, so health rumors can have an impact.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't know. The parameters of that trade were very much up in the air. Could be the Twins wanted the Braves to eat salary at that point. Or they were feeling out whether the Twins were going to leave Burdi unprotected...
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Problem is, if you bring him up, you can't take him off the 40-man without losing him. It is a lot easier to waiver claim a guy rather than Rule 5 him.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    While I see nothing wrong with these trades in a vacuum, and actually see some things to like, I share John's and Chief's concern about the context. People excuse the Kintzler deal because we've fallen back in the race over the last week and he's a FA in 2 months -- but if we had invested in a real reliever last offseason, as was blindingly obvious to everyone, it is quite possible that we wouldn't have fallen this far back in the race. And many consider the Garcia sequence to be especially good deals, and I admire the nimble pivot in a way, but wouldn't it have been better to get Garcia last winter? Then we could have had the benefits of his pitching for 4 months, plus the potential for getting Littell if we had still been out of the race today. Given how their performance and/or health in 2016, it was pretty inexcusable that we were asked to rely on Santiago, Gibson, Hughes, and even May to the extent that we have in the 2017 rotation. And please don't hold the encouraging seasons of Berrios and Mejia as hostage here -- there was plenty of room for a skilled front office to shorten the leashes of the suspect vets over the untested/improving youth. Not to mention the starts we've flushed with Turley, Jorge, etc. Yes, we came off a 103 loss season, although many considered it more like a 70 win season with a bonehead decision (Sano to RF) plus some bad luck. Even so, a 103 loss season is not an excuse to rely on all of the same rotation and bullpen suspects for yet another season. And while a new FO will have adjustment/evaluation periods in certain situations and levels, these areas of weakness on the MLB roster don't seem to have warranted complete inactivity. It shouldn't have required a veteran front office to add Holland instead of Breslow and Haley, or to add Garcia in anticipation of continued problems from Hughes, Gibson, Santiago, and May. While I suppose there wasn't much else to do by the time we got to July 31, and the day in isolation went pretty well for us, it highlights a lot of the concerns we've had about the front office for the months leading up to that day. Far bigger than yesterday's trade "successes" will be the upcoming offseason, when action will be required and the suspect excuses of 103 losses / new FO will no longer be applicable (if they ever were).
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    Bard seems to match the statistical/age profile of a lot of AA relievers who don't get selected, or who get returned fairly quickly. Spin rate is a new X factor, I suppose.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    With Slegers, I think Seth's reminder that he wasn't selected in Rule 5 last winter is pretty important. He has had a solid season at AAA, but he was largely the same pitcher for the full season at AA last year. I really doubt teams will change their minds on him. Rule 5 selections and full season survivors are pretty rare too. Looks like only ~5 guys might survive the season from Rule 5 this year (pending some DL cases), and 3 of them are Padres. Not an excuse to needlessly expose anyone good, of course, but another data point suggesting that Slegers is probably safe.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    For spots opening, with the 60-day DL guys included, and Recker excluded, we have 41 rostered guys right now. 5 pending FA: Belisle Colon Gee Perkins Santiago 4 possible nontenders in arbitration: Gibson Pressly Gimenez Grossman 9 potential cuts (not all of these guys will be cut, of course, but some among this group will be): Boshers Busenitz Chargois Hildenberger O'Rourke Randy Rosario Turley Palka Vargas And of course Hughes as a big wild card. Then you need to factor in any MLB FA they might sign this winter. Probably at least 3.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I'd probably bump Bard and Melo to tier 3, even though I think Bard deserves a look. Just seems they're not interested. Reed hasn't been particularly impressive either, he might be more 2nd tier than 1st. Otherwise, good list!
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that Willie Calhoun, a guy that some posters here didn't even want as a secondary piece in a Brian Dozier trade, was now the top piece in a Yu Darvish trade...
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Tyler Wells was a 15th round pick last year and isn't even in the Twins top 30 at MLB Pipeline. Kaprielian was the 15th overall pick 2 years ago, and was the Yankees #7 prospect at MLB Pipeline. You can't compare two minor leaguers by stat lines (or in Kaprielian's case, the lack thereof).
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    Santana isn't much of a substitute for Darvish or Gray at this juncture.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    The Astros already have too many starters, probably moving Peacock back to the pen.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    In former Twins news, Astros are close to adding Francisco Liriano, to be used as a reliever.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    New rule is that draft picks can't be traded until after the World Series, and can't be included as PTBNL prior to that.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    The Nationals, Rays, and Rockies have already spent some resources on bullpen pieces this month. Guessing their level of interest is on the cheap side.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Kintzler to Arizona seems like the only possibility left that could return much if any value. MLBTR noted last week there was some interest, but Arizona largely seems to be on the sidelines this trade season: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/pitching-market-notes-kintzler-twins-interest-red-sox-dbacks-ervin-santana-astros-background-dodgers-darvish-cubs-verlander-cardinals-lynn.html
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    At least they substituted it with "whining" yesterday.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Here are the teams that have already traded for bullpen help in the last few weeks: Cubs Yankees Nationals Rays Mariners Mets Rockies Brewers Royals Red Sox Who is conceivably still shopping for relievers today? Indians Astros Dodgers Diamondbacks Those teams rank 2 , 4, 5, and 9 (Arizona) by bullpen fWAR. Edited to reflect Addison Reed to Boston.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm wondering if the return might not be closer to Pat Light territory, though. Kintzler has had a nice season for us but I'm not sure he fits anyone's profile for bullpen reinforcement.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    From MLBTR's top 25 deadline day trade candidates, #4 (Justin Wilson) already went to the Cubs, and #3 (Addison Reed) is "moving closer" to the Red Sox. Kintzler is the next reliever on the list, at #5. Joe Smith is right behind him at #6, though, and I could see him being more appealing to some with his 2017 K rate. I'm starting to suspect we might be underwhelmed by the Kintzler return, even compared to other relievers. Enough that the team may not bother to deal him at all...
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    This is probably fairly close to the truth. I know backup catchers seem to get underrated (Butera, Herrmann, Murphy), but Gimenez has already bounced around quite a bit and it generally hasn't been by trade. Claimed on waivers twice, traded for "future considerations" once, purchased once. I could see him being a third catcher for the stretch drive somewhere, but that would likely have to wait until September 1st. Likewise we could wait for a catching injury, but that might take all month too. I'd prefer just to have Garver up now. But I am guessing Gimenez plays out the season here, Garver gets in a few games in September, and then Gimenez (or some equivalent) is brought in on another minor league deal for next spring.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Yes, coincidence. There are still more important unanswered questions about Buxton right now than anyone else on the team. They absolutely did not force him to the DL during a hot streak and a pennant race just to get a look at a relatively fringe prospect in Granite.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    No matter, just daisy-chain them!
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