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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Are you Corbin's sister? Is your "buddy" Corbin's sister? Are you familiar with the childhood "telephone game"? I suspect you might be playing it, to a degree. Oh, and I left out a pretty huge factor -- Corbin is a pitcher, and one who already had TJ surgery 5 years ago. He's one pitch away from being finished. So pardon me for not begrudging him if he wasn't willing to take $40 mil less to sign with one preseason division favorite instead of another, in his first and best crack at free agency.
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    I should have left the "every other person" part out, but FWIW, Corbin's contract has little or no effect on where he will live. So it's not really comparable to you or me taking a paycut to live in a particular place. Andrew Luck walked away from money to preserve his health, which is a very, very different thing. I don't think every player takes the top offer, but most players probably don't take less than ~5% less than the top offer either. It's not like there are many guys in Corbin's position taking $80 mil contracts with the Yankees or Dodgers instead of $140 mil with the Nationals (as much as the Yankees and Dodgers would like them to!). And aren't there quite a few players who have rejected NY because of "fit"? Because they don't want to be under that media microscope? How do we know that doesn't apply to Corbin too, and he was fortunate that Washington is *also* a winner and *also* offered the most money? This is a really weird guy/decision to criticize.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all -- Corbin signed with a winner (#4 payroll in MLB, 4 stars/superstars, I think top ~8 in MLB wins in every 2+ year period dating back to 2012), so maybe your cousin's roommate's brother's insight into his thought process isn't fully complete. Second of all, Tom Brady probably makes a lot more (endorsements, etc.) by re-signing in New England and continuing to win than chasing a larger contract with, say, the Jets or Dolphins or whoever. Third, Brady has been collecting big paychecks -- salary and endorsements -- for a long, long time. Cruz already banked $85 mil in his career before he signed with the Twins. There's really no way you can compare them to a guy like Corbin in his first crack at free agency. I'll bet that Cruz probably got contract offers from better "winners" than the Seattle Mariners in the 2014-2015 offseason, but guess where he signed his one big contract? Fourth, judging by recent MLB FA markets, I really doubt Cruz took much (if any) less to sign with Minnesota too. That's probably a better narrative than it is grounded in facts. Fifth, shouldn't we be happy that a guy didn't sign with the Yankees?
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Anthony Rendon says, "thanks for the advice!"
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    How do you differentiate him from virtually every other pro athlete in this regard? (And perhaps virtually every other person?)
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    One more for the Yankees too, so they have a cool 280 with 14 games left.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    The Yankees actually have more HR on the road this year.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Then again, in 2006 and 2009 Gardy's teams went down to the wire in the regular season, finishing strong, and got swept in the ALDS just the same...
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Keuchel has certainly gone on a nice run since that clunker. He's won his last 5 starts, and the Braves have won his last 6. 6 GS, 37 IP, 4 R, 35 K, 0.97 ERA. Not all slouches for opponents either -- 2 starts vs the Mets and 1 each vs PHI and WSN in that span -- and only 1 run allowed in 25 innings versus those divisional opponents! For the season, he's up 8-5, 3.35 ERA in 16 starts, 96.2 IP. His FIP is still 4.39, so only 1.0 fWAR vs 2.4 bWAR. His K% is up to 19.8% (from 17.5% last year).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    3 more HR for the Yankees halfway through the second game of their doubleheader today. Up to 279 with 14 games remaining after today. Twins at 277 with 17 games remaining.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Local ratings are doing quite well, as I understand. It is a very different media landscape than even just a few years ago, so I suspect MLB isn't truly concerned about national ratings all that much.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Actually seems to clear up at Target Field before 7:10. No guarantee they start at that time, of course, with clearing the tarp and everything.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    This forecast suggests the rain should clear soon -- "minutecast" says around 6:30. Hourly forecast chance of precip drops from 59-49-20 at 6, 7, and 8 PM, respectively. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/target-field/55403/minute-weather-forecast/53242_poi
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    So Cleveland is calling up a reliever with a 22.9 (!) K/9 in the minors this year. That is 74 strikeouts in 30.1 innings. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/indians-to-promote-james-karinchak.html
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure. Or, a Cleveland sweep could offset us going 5-2 vs KC. Or a Cleveland 1-2 letdown vs another club, etc.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    There is still some uncertainty at this point, of course. But I thought it was worth noting, especially since it's the last 3 games of the year and Washington is currently up 3.5 to host the wild card game just 1 day after the season ends. FWIW, Fangraphs projects them to take the 1st wild card by 4 games (of course, they project us to win our division by 5 too ).
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, his IL stint wasnt' that long, but I think there are still some questions about how he will perform, especially given the nature of his injury and his last few performance prior to going on the IL. That's been my reply to the "we must call up Kirilloff" posts, so I agree to an extent -- but until they actually come back from these "very minor injuries", there will be questions about how effective they will be upon their return. For example, Cave hasn't played in almost a week now and was slumping in the week prior to that too. For that matter, recall that Marwin was originally expected to be back within 10 days so he wasn't even placed on the IL, despite it still being a few days before expanded rosters. Buxton was originally a "late scratch" too, and had several moments when he was near a return. Not that I expect Kepler and Cave to miss the rest of the year or anything, but it's worth questioning what level of contributions we can expect from them in the near future until they're actually back and performing.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Washington will be playing in the wild card game on a Tuesday, and they hope starting a LDS on a Thursday. I think it definitely matters that Cleveland will be playing them on the preceding Friday, Saturday, and Sunday -- there will likely be a lot of conservative decisions from Washington if their spot is locked up. No Scherzer, possibly minimal Strasburg/Corbin and even Sanchez, days off and substitutes for Soto/Rendon/Turner/etc, and probably a lot of mop-up relievers (although those may be indistinguishable from Washington's top relievers this season ). Even in that state, they're still likely a better team than Detroit or KC, but it's definitely context worth noting. Cleveland may not be playing the same Washington club that the Twins are facing this week.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    In another thread recently, I speculated at what a collapse might look like. With a 4 game lead and 17 and 15 games remaining, respectively, it could go something like this: Twins (8-9): 0-1 vs WSN 1-2 vs CLE 1-2 vs CHW 4-3 vs KC 2-1 vs DET Cleveland (11-4): 2-1 vs MIN 3-0 vs DET 2-1 vs PHI 2-1 vs CHW 2-1 vs WSN That would put us into a tie after 162 games, forcing another game 163 tiebreaker. Still unlikely -- Fangraphs gives us 95.2% odds of winning the division, and only 3.2% of a tie atop the AL Central -- but plausible, even without a Cleveland sweep this weekend. As noted by others, a win tonight and a win this weekend -- so 2 of the next 4 -- would be big. It could essentially force Cleveland to get another sweep from their remaining schedule, in addition one vs Detroit.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Also, I'd quibble and say Gibson "is coming back" rather than "is back" -- tonight will be his first start in a couple weeks, and I guess it remains to be seen how he will perform. (It's possible we're still seeing some performance issues with Cruz too, even though he is back.)
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I agree with those percentages, and the general sentiment that the Twins schedule is easier, but it's worth noting that the Nationals may not have anything to play for when they face Cleveland in the last 3 games of the season -- they have a 3.5 game lead over the 2nd wild card right now. The Phillies are also 2 games back of the 2nd wild card, bunched with a couple other teams -- and they have 4 more games vs the red-hot Braves over the next week, plus 2 with Boston. It's possible they will be virtually eliminated by the time they face Cleveland too.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The lead is still 4 games, and Cleveland is off today, so even if the Twins lose today vs Washington *and* get swept in Cleveland, we'd still be a half-game ahead on Monday morning. Although I doubt anyone would feel too confident at that point, regardless of a half-game lead! The earliest the Twins could technically be tied for 1st place would be Tuesday morning. Oakland is only a half-game ahead of Cleveland (or, 3.5 back of the Twins), and Tampa is only a half-game ahead of them (3 back of the Twins). While it's possibly for a team to make up a 4 game deficit over ~15 games, it's not likely -- and it's even more unlikely that multiple teams would make up a 3-4 game deficit over ~15 games. Fangraphs still has us 95.2% to win the division, and 99.2% to make the playoffs.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    I don't think so -- his replacements have hit quite a few too. Yankee DHs this season have 37 HR -- and that didn't really take away HR from other positions either. Split HR C 37 1B 25 2B 19 3B 31 SS 42 LF 25 CF 28 RF 31 DH 37 Stanton himself "only" hit 38 last year, in 158 games. Encarnacion, Voit, Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford -- all of those guys have hit plenty of HR in 2019 in place of Giancarlo Stanton.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Twenty-five years and my life is still Trying to get up that great big hill of hope For a destination... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NXnxTNIWkc
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    You mean these guys? http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1058525/baseballyankeefans.gif
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