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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, Gardner has been on a tear lately -- leads MLB with 9 HR this month Also has a 1.022 OPS in September to lead the Yankees, while guys like LeMahieu, Voit, and Urshela (and Gregorious) have slowed down. .924 OPS since July 1st as well (Sano is at .949 in the same time frame).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    The Giants have launched a counter-investigation in which they will no doubt look at those flight logs for any records of turbulence. In response, the Twins should interview the flight attendants and ask if Dyson disclosed any discomfort to them during the flight. In the meantime, the two organizations should split custody of Jaylin Davis. We'll get to the bottom of this yet!
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, it's possible Gregorious (90 OPS+) is on the bench for them. They could do Torres at SS (130 OPS+), LeMahieu at 2B (136), Urshela at 3B (133), and then Encarnacion (131) and Voit (127) at 1B and DH, health permitting, of course.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    By this logic (Ruth's 1931 salary is equivalent to $60 mil today), the average American's salary in 1931 is equal to a person making over $1 mil annually today. I'd question the meaning or accuracy of that claim.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    How does Dallas Keuchel affect your "hold-outs suffer in year one" theory?
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    I posted in the other thread, but O'Rourke didn't fare well vs Gardner in 2015 (1 hit and two walks in 3 PAs). And the alternative to not LOOGYing isn't to let them beat you -- I also noted that May and Duffey are about as effective (by wOBA) vs LHB this year as O'Rourke is for his MLB career. You can deploy May and Duffey (and of course Rogers) over those LHB spots, if you want, and get equal or perhaps better effectiveness than O'Rourke -- and they can even stay in to face more than 1 batter, or be useful in other game situations too. Perez has been more effective than O'Rourke vs Gardner for sure -- only 2 hits and 1 HBP in 11 PA, with 3 K's. So he could be a LOOGY matchup option for him, if necessary, in addition to being capable of eating some innings in other situations. (Gregorious has 2 HR in 10 PA vs Perez, though -- maybe a matchup to avoid?) https://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/batter_vs_pitcher.cgi?request=1&submitter=1&pitcher=perezma02&min_year_game=2012&max_year_game=2019&post=1&opp_id=NYY&bats=L&c1gtlt=gt&c2gtlt=gt&orderby=PA&orderby_dir=desc&orderby_second=Name&orderby_dir_second=asc
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, O'Rourke faced Gardner 3 times in our 2015 pennant race, and failed to retire him -- 1 hit and 2 walks. He faced Gregorious twice, giving up a fly ball to RF on a 1-0 count, and a first-pitch RBI sac bunt. (Against other Yankee LHB that year, he walked McCann and gave up a 2 run HR to Stephen Drew -- although he did limit Ellsbury to a 1-for-4 line and struck out Greg Bird and Garrett Jones.) O'Rourke is an interesting guy, but his viability vs LHB in the postseason is still doubtful. Worth noting that May and Duffey have a comparable wOBA vs LHB batters this year as O'Rourke's career MLB line vs LHB (and probably in higher leverage too). So even O'Rourke's one potential trick isn't all that special compared to the Twins staff.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Seems very unlikely at this point -- the Astros are 1.5 games up on the Yankees, *and* the Astros hold the tiebreaker over them. Even if the Yankees win out -- 4 in a row, including 1 more vs Charlie Morton in Tampa and 3 in Texas including one vs Lance Lynn -- the Astros would only have to go 3-2 in their remaining 5 vs Seattle and a Trout-less (and Ohtani-less, and Upton-less) Angels team. If the Yankees lose even one of their remaining games, Houston would only need a 2-3 finish to secure the top seed. Not impossible for the Yankees, but not too likely either. Best start planning for NYY now.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    This is all so silly. We *know* players play through things all the time without telling their teams. It drives us nuts sometimes when we hear about it after they struggle (although sometimes I suspect it's used as an excuse in those cases, rather than being a direct cause). It seems especially likely that players might withhold a condition when it appears to have no impact on performance. Dyson said it first started bothering him after the all-star break in Colorado. His stats with the Giants, beginning with that Colorado series right up to the trade: 7 G, 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K How many MLB players would report a condition if those are the results they are getting while playing through it? And what incentive would Dyson have to lie to cover for the Giants, then or now? Some of these accusations make zero sense. That said, I understand if the Twins want to double-check the record, just to make sure -- player transactions are worth millions of dollars to them. But I'm doubtful they come up with anything meaningful, I'm highly doubtful that there was any shenanigans on the part of the Giants, and frankly it's not that big of a deal -- as good as his minor league season was, Davis didn't figure much into the Twins present or future plans.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Because what happened with Odorizzi is very rare? Because the Twins and Giants are different teams, with different staffs and cultures? Because Dyson and Odorizzi are different players, in different roles, and likely had different conditions that affected them in different ways? Seriously, we've seen TONS of players reveal injury only after a bad stretch of play. Why do we assume that Dyson must have reported soreness, or that the Giants must have detected it, during a stretch of 7 scoreless appearances?
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Teams set their rosters in advance of each round, so they can change between series. Injured players can be replaced on the roster during a series, but the injured player is ineligible to return that series *or* the next series. And you can only replace an injured pitcher with another pitcher, or an injured position player with another position player. The exception is concussions. A player with an acute concussion would be eligible to return after 7 days. Not sure if that applies to catchers only? Anyway, it's an argument for leaving Astudillo off the roster, as we could more easily bring him in as a replacement if necessary. https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3549
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Anyone can be on the bench. So Gibson could still be with the team, even if he's not on the roster.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    I think Blanco pretty much played like a backup catcher, just in more at-bats. 60 OPS+, -0.4 bWAR. Maybe he was a crazy good pitch framer or something, I suppose. Joe Mauer got hurt on April 6, 2004. The Blue Jays signed Gregg Zaun on April 9 -- without Blanco in the fold, would we have signed Zaun instead? Zaun went on to post a 96 OPS+ and 2.3 bWAR that season for the Jays. Not that it probably would have made much difference in the end. Although you could argue we should have signed someone like Zaun anyway, even with Blanco, and our season wouldn't have had to end with 41 year old Pat Borders on the field...
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps they would have been mentioned if the article title had read "Bust" instead of "Best". Perhaps the article would have been deleted then too. And whoever posted it would have been sacked.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the Yankees are lining up their rotation as follows: 1. Paxton 2. Severino 3. Tanaka 4. opener (Green) / Happ It was long suspected that Severino would be limited as a starter, but he's thrown 67 and 80 pitches his his two starts so far, covering 4 and 5 innings respectively, with one start remaining. He may be deployed as something close to a traditional starter yet. Of course, it would be ideal to jump on him like we did in the 2017 wild card game and render his pitch count moot.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Dobnak for 3 or 4 innings to kick off a bullpen game may not be all that different from an Odorizzi start. Odo averages 5.1 innings per start this season. (Not a knock on Odo, as that's the league average for SP now too.) I get that groundballer Dobnak sounds like a better fit for Yankee Stadium than flyballer Odorizzi, but at a single game level, things really aren't that predictable. Odo pitched a gem in Yankee Stadium for a win back in April (admittedly without Judge), and then got roughed up at Target Field vs the Yankees in July (with Judge back but with Sanchez out). I don't know if we want to get too cute with our planning based on these factors. The prospect of Dobnak/Perez going back-to-back in games 3 and 4 and taxing the pen is perhaps something to avoid, but then again -- isn't that why you have a 12 man staff? And those two games are buffered from the rest of the series by scheduled off days (weather permitting*). * A weather postponement in game 3 or 4 could erase the off day after game 4. And actually, such a postponement would allow the game 1 starter to throw game 4 on normal rest, as well as the game 2 starter throwing in game 5 on normal rest. Perhaps not likely, but another benefit of throwing your best SPs first.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    I thought this topic sounded familiar! http://twinsdaily.com/topic/34554-is-cruz-the-best-twins-fa-signing-ever/
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Of course, you need to get to the World Series in order to accumulate World Series stats. And Verlander is 7-0 with a 2.38 ERA in the ALDS, and 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA in the ALCS. Kershaw's been iffier, but his teams are 8-3 in his 11 NLDS starts too. I wouldn't say their World Series stats in isolation have much meaning in this conversation, as the Twins try to set their ALDS rotation.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth remembering that Dobnak only has two "real starts" in MLB so far. His first 6 games were all long relief / mop-up / opener appearances. It's encouraging that he did well overall in his "real start" vs. Cleveland, after they had seen them twice already, although 8 baserunners in 5 innings to an average-ish offense is a little risky. 5 of the first 8 batters reached in that game, before Dobnak was bailed out by a DP ball off the bat of Ryan Flaherty. Dobnak is supposed to be a bit of groundball artist, but will he face a Ryan Flaherty in the postseason to allow him to escape a rocky start? His other start vs CLE (as an opener), the first 4 batters of the 2nd inning reached base, and Dobnak was able to escape thanks to a baserunning error, then retiring the 8 and 9 hitters -- a backup catcher and Yu Chang, two more types of batters he may not see in the postseason. The start vs KC had more strikeouts, but also 7 baserunners in 5.1 innings, versus the second-worst offense in the AL. 4 walks/HBP, 2 of the leadoff variety to their 8 and 9 hitters. HOU/NYY may not be as forgiving. I mean, it's still amazing that he's doing this in MLB right now, given his backstory -- but I think I would have liked to see him tested by better offenses before building much of a postseason strategy around him. (Next and last start, probably against Detroit, unfortunately.) Not that Smeltzer's long relief stint vs the Yankees makes him a better option, though. I guess opener of a bullpen game, with a short leash, may not be too bad.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    It is a cool story so far, although comparing him to the 2017 draft class isn't quite perfect -- a guy like Mackenzie Gore could very well be pitching well in MLB now if his team was better and/or his future value wasn't so high. Nate Pearson? Maybe Jo Adell too? Not many, but by comparison, Dobnak has the "benefit" of his team doing well right now and not really caring about his future ceiling/control. Still, that's a relatively minor factor. Very, very cool what Dobnak has been able to accomplish so far.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    I think you'd still rather pitcher Berrios in game 1 -- he can be good, but he's not quite a "lock" to go 7+ innings like, say, Verlander. (Very few people are!) And Dobnak's hook would likely be dependent, at least in part, on how well Berrios does -- do you treat Dobnak as a traditional starter trying to work deep, or do you look at it as a quasi-bullpen game and pull Dobnak in the right situation/matchup? To best inform that decision, you want to already know how deep Berrios pitched in his game. The trickle-down effect on games 3-4 should be minimal either way, as they are buffered by off days. And in extreme circumstances, like a rain delay or early exit in game 1, you might want the option to bring Berrios back for a game 4 start. Unlikely, but sort of like like what the Twins did with Johan in 2003, or even in 2004, although hopefully with better results.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    The Twins, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Braves all made the postseason in 2004 too. Other than that, destiny! 2019! Sign me up!
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    "Skoglund vs Dobnak" has a certain ring to it...
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Technically Trout isn't on the IL either, so I'd say it's a wash between him and Gibson.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    By this source, average salary has basically leveled off the last 4 years (technically even dropped a tiny bit the last 2 years): https://www.statista.com/statistics/236213/mean-salaray-of-players-in-majpr-league-baseball/ The top salaries kept rising, but that's only a tiny handful of players -- and it's not clear when someone will eclipse Trout.
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