Otto von Ballpark

I think the 2015 team had some real heartbreak against the Yankees -- didn't make the playoffs, but we lost 5 in a row to them in a pennant race, including a 3 game sweep in NY in mid-August. We held a lead in the 5th inning or later of all 5 losses; and at least a tie in the 6th inning or later. In a season where we spent much of the last month about 1 game out of the wild card, those losses proved crucial. "Highlights" from each of those losses: - In Target Field in late July, Perkins blew a 9th inning save, capped off by a 3-run HR to JR Murphy - The next afternoon, Gibson gave up a run to tie in the 5th, then combined with O'Rourke to give up a 6-spot in the 6th - Moving to Yankee Stadium in mid-August, Gibson combined with Duensing to blow a 2-run lead in the 6th, but we held on tied until the 10th when Perkins lost it. With the bases loaded and nobody out in the bottom of the 10th, Eduardo Nunez fielded a tough grounder and threw to first base for a meaningless out while the game-ending run scored. - Next night, the Twins managed to take a 4-1 lead in the top of the 7th, which Molitor inexplicably trusted to O'Rourke (versus two RHB, no less) and Rule 5 mop-up man JR Graham in the bottom of the inning. They combined to give up 7 runs. - Then in the season series finale, Ervin pitched pretty well and we took a lead in the 6th inning again, but a pair of 2 run HR to Greg Bird sunk us, 4-3. In addition to Mauer, we still have Ervin, Dozier, Rosario, and Escobar from that team playing prominent roles. Duffey was on the team for the second of those series but didn't pitch. In our only win, our first game vs the Yankees that year, Sano hit a 2 run HR in the first inning and Phil Hughes pitched 7 shutout innings -- both are on the DL now. Trevor May was effective in both of his relief appearances vs the Yankees that year, but is also on the DL now. (O'Rourke, not so much. ) Buxton, Vargas, Tonkin, and Pressly mercifully missed the Yankees series that year, but received regular playing time at other points of the 2015 MLB season. Polanco and Kepler made token appearances at other points of 2015 too. And of course Molitor, Allen, Glynn, Vavra, Guardado, and Rudy Hernandez are still holdovers from the 2015 coaching staff. EDIT: And while he didn't make the 2009-2010 playoff rosters, Perkins gave up 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning to lose a regular season start against the Yankees in 2009, before his 2015 meltdowns. That's kind of a link to the past. Only 1 run in 10 innings from 2011-2014, though, admittedly not in any kind of pennant race.

Seems like this has been happening a lot lately, though. At what point are you concerned? When Molitor bunts with Sano down 3 runs or something ridiculous? That's not going to happen, but mildly questionable bunts every other day should add up to something...

And league average is only in the .250s these days, so while .230 isn't great, it's not terrible either. Still, I don't mind pinch hitting or especially pinch running, but I don't think I'd be so eager to bunt.

Sorry, I missed the Sano thing. But notice that Dozier isn't bunting weekly. Also notice that you didn't say anything now about bunting just for the sake of bunting experience. Again, no one here is quibbling with the idea of fast guys bunting for a hit sometimes, or a guy like Dozier catching the defense napping twice a season. But your "weekly experience" thing seemed to be arguing for more than that, which sounds like a good way for a lot of guys to give up regular PAs (and potential XBH) without much gain. Also have to factor in that regular bunt attempts will probably make defenses better at handling bunts, more than it will make any individual hunter better.

Buxton is one of the fastest guys in the league. No one here has disputed he should be bunting for a hit sometimes. What about Dozier? Mauer? Stanton? You want them bunting weekly, regardless of results?

Lol, to think I would ever look at premium seats! Just get me in the ballpark, I will move down as far as the moat will allow.

Good point. I was just looking at Seatgeek, and Yankees tickets were as cheap as the upcoming Tigers series in Detroit. Cheaper than Target Field right now for sure.

Actually, quite a few of them have. Rosario and Escobar were both in the lineup in August 2015 when we went to Yankee Stadium in a pennant race. Buxton rejoined the team shortly thereafter. Only Polanco in our lineup tonight is a young player who hasn't previously been part of a MLB pennant race. (Grossman hasn't either, and I guess Kepler came off the bench.) Pitching side, obviously Hildenberger and Rogers haven't, but Duffey has (and obviously Ervin too). Of those that didn't pitch tonight, Gibson, Colon, Belisle, Perkins, Gee, and Tonkin all pitched in September pennant races before (obviously not all young guys!).

Did it come with a gift receipt?

To be fair, Garcia has a 100 ERA+ since the trade (before tonight). His peripherals aren't great, and he is a little short on innings, but the Yankees have had a quick hook with him too (as they should, with their pen investments).

You want good hitters to be bunting, in actual games, weekly?

I think the experience value of "periodic" (meaning infrequent) bunts is pretty much non-existent. Just like you don't become a meaningfully better defender at a position if you only play it once every couple months. That experience is just too infrequent to be meaningful. Even if it's not "high pressure game situations", it probably comes down to practice plus innate skill and comfort. And that's going to show up in the data -- a guy like Dozier who just isn't comfortable bunting isn't going to do it, even just once every couple months. Also, for a good hitter, bunting is virtually never "needed" in a game situation. Guys like Adrianza, Gimenez, rookie Granite, pitchers, sure. But not good hitters.

Yes, the difference is primarily defense (and how to split credit/blame between pitchers and defenders). Most notably, Fangraphs uses FIP to calculate pitcher WAR rather than actual runs allowed. So pitchers with better peripherals (Berrios) will generally get a boost over what their ERA/RA would suggest, and pitchers with worse peripherals (Ervin) will get dinged. Also, Fangraphs uses UZR for defense, while B-Ref uses DRS. Curious how that will change in the age of Statcast...

Which has pretty much been all of the Twins recent sac bunt attempts, right?

Seth, I have no idea how you came to this conclusion about a guy averaging less than 5 innings per start. He wasn't even trending up that much -- 18.2 IP in the 4 starts preceding his injury start (in which he was also on pace to probably fall short of 5 IP). His ERA was nice in recent stretches, but it wasn't really supported by his components (which also ties into why he wasn't pitching many innings, too many hits and walks even when he wasn't allowing many runs). Not picking on him at all, I'm glad to get Mejia back and he should be a useful guy now and going forward, but I don't see how you can say he has "proved himself as a mid-rotation type of starter" already, or put him as part of a franchise core 7.

That's fair. I didn't jump into the discussion to pick on the current starters! Just defending Bert's record that year. Also, I read the comment as referring to the top 2 starters collectively as "dominant" in which case they are helped a lot by VIola's 159 ERA+ as compared to Ervin's 133 leading the way. And if you consider "dominant" beyond just that single season, Blyleven came into 1987 with a career 125 ERA+, versus Ervin's career 103 mark as of today. But it gets pretty subjective. In any case, that analysis of 1987 isn't going to work for 2017 because of the changes in pitcher usage and expanded playoffs. Even if Ervin and Berrios are approximate equivalents, I'd guess now you would need to look beyond 2 starters.

71% chance of making the playoffs, with 16 to play, and given our remaining schedule (Toronto, Detroit, and perhaps even Cleveland and the Yankees with not much to play for), they are definitely in "choke" territory if they blow this (unless the Angels win out or something crazy). I'm trying to stay positive, though, so I wasn't going to point that out!

Twins postseason odds up to 71.3% on Fangraphs now.

Remember 1987 was a high-scoring year. Blyleven's 4.01 ERA was much better than league average, good for a 115 ERA+, ranking 22nd in MLB among qualifiers. 2nd in games started, 4th in IP. The W-L looks a lot better too when you consider the team was 23-14 in Blyleven's starts, I think Bert's trademark luck was on display in that regard. He wasn't elite like Clemens or even Viola, but he was pretty darn good, and I wouldn't quibble with saying he was part of a "dominant pair" when paired with one of those guys.

Well, that and the fact that we already had/have a head start of 1-3 games on those clubs. That's a pretty big deal with under 20 to play.

Did he say anything about sample size, or standard deviations?

Radke ranks among MLB qualifiers: 1996, 29th in ERA-, 14th in IP. 1997, 27th in ERA-, and 9th in IP. 1998, 40th in ERA-, 33rd in IP. 1999, 9th in ERA-, 5th in IP. 2000, 35th in ERA-, 11th in IP. 2001, 29th in ERA-, 15th in IP. ... 2004, 10th in ERA-, 12th in IP.

Some takes on Gibson over at Fangraphs : http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-kyle-gibson-and-robert-stephenson/

Situational Hitting page: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-situational-batting.shtml

To be fair, I think they first wanted to hire Molitor back in his mid-40s.