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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Even if we protected him from Rule 5, Burdi wouldn't have been effectively taking a 40-man spot by opening day -- he will be placed on the 60-day DL. I mentioned upthread, but it's not clear that the Burdi-Garcia trade was the same as the eventual Ynoa-Garcia trade. If the Braves had been willing to eat some of Garcia's salary for Burdi, them backing out is not necessarily a "big red flag". Maybe they didn't want to pay for Burdi and also have to protect him while injured from Rule 5? Maybe they thought there was a chance they could select him in Rule 5 (he didn't last that long, although the Braves drafted another RH reliever instead).
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair to Kinley, his worst numbers at AA were to open the 2017 season -- 10 runs in 8 IP, .987 OPS, only 21.7% K rate. Then he got sent back to high-A and dominated, and returned later to AA and was better -- 9 runs in 18 IP, .664 OPS, 30% K rate. And not to get too selective, but most of that was one game where he was charged with 4 runs without retiring a batter. He finished the regular season with the following 8 game stretch: 10 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 15 K, .280 OPS. (He did serve up 2 solo HR in a playoff appearance, though.) Still, that's only AA, and while it might hint at talent, it doesn't suggest consistency. Kinley's Dominican Winter League stats are also a bit suspect. The league as a whole has a 3.34 ERA, which is even less run scoring than the notoriously pitcher-friendly Florida State League (where Kinley also excelled in 2017). In addition to Justin Haley doing well there, Sam Deduno is still pitching there. Alexi Casilla and Danny Santana are both hitting over .300 there right now too. Very hard to project from those stats!
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not sure it was quite so simple as that. That was an early version of the deal, and there may have been cash coming from Atlanta at that point. Rather than changing their opinion of Burdi, maybe the medicals changed the Braves estimate of whether the Twins would protect Burdi this winter, and they didn't want to pay for a guy who could be available to them in Rule 5.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps a more palatable example of deferred money is Max Scherzer: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/max-scherzer-and-when-210-million-isnt-210-million/ Or even Zack Greinke: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/12/09/greinkes-d-backs-deal-includes-62-5m-in-deferred-salaries/77077480/
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    Unless I missed something, Melotakis is still in the org, he is just off the 40-man roster.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, as a 2013 college draftee, it appears Kinley was eligible for Rule 5 last winter but was not selected. Of course, Luke Bard had been eligible twice previously. (Burdi was a first time eligible this winter)
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    And with Dickey, we actually signed him a season later anyway. Stuart Turner, Sean Gilmartin, Kevin Cameron, and Levale Speigner are the other players we lost in Rule 5. A nifty resource: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Worth noting that Burdi debuted in AA in his age 22 season, versus age 25 for Kinley, so for the purposes of this stat comparison, the difference is more like 3 years. And of course Burdi went to AA with 20 pro innings under his belt, versus ~100 for Kinley. And small sample, but Burdi's AA numbers were trending up.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    Did you see me citing TD posters as a data point?
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Except thanks to MLB rules, only a few of the other 29 teams could even offer him that much right now. I'm not sure the lack of a deal for Marte at the moment is all that meaningful of a data point.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, I don't know how long Marte has been available -- when exactly was the contract voided? And the international market has shrunk/slowed considerably this time of year , so perhaps Marte can take his time deciding. I mean, if he just had a $3 mil deal voided, he may not have much incentive to jump on the first $1 mil offer. (In theory, could he even take his chances next July?)
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Anybody know when it was voided? The Twins signed him back in July, and international cap numbers were discussed throughout the rest of the season. Marte did need to get a visa after that before the physical, not sure when that happened. It was pretty clear Otani was trying to come stateside a month ago, I am not sure Marte's deal could have been voided for "months" prior to that with no announcement. I am not accusing them of anything, but it does seem weird to void the contract of your top international signee and just not tell anyone, even if only for a couple weeks. (Even weirder if it was really a couple months.)
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    By the same token, though, a Kiermaier type deal paying Buxton $13 mil a year through his prime isn't going to be a millstone around our neck either, even if he washes out. And you have to admit there would be a benefit to paying Buxton ~$13 mil per season in his prime if he winds up providing ~$26 mil worth of production or whatever. That would be another $13 mil we could allocate elsewhere, like toward an ace. We're obviously not sure how it will all shake out, but this offseason may be our last chance to get Buxton on this kind of deal. Unless you have a better plan to allocate that cash right now, I think I would prefer making a bet on Buxton with it.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, TR waited way too long to lock up Mauer. He was almost destined to be a Twin for life, we should have been able to get something done. In 2005 after he returned from the knee injury at the latest. As it was, we didn't sign him until after he won the 2006 batting title and was eligible for arbitration.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    True. Given Buxton's struggles, there probably wasn't an extension to be had a year ago. I'm not really blaming the FO with this line of thought, just saying if there is a chance to get him locked up long-term on a team-friendly deal, it would be now, not later.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, that's my fear too. A normal player 1 year away would be fairly unlikely. My hope is that Buxton's slow start might neutralize that a bit? Then again, thanks to his signing bonus, Buxton has already pocketed about $6 mil more than Kiermaier at the same point last year...
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    Again, I don't know if you can wait, even just until midseason. Simmons and Yelich were both 2 years away from arbitration when they signed; Kiermaier was 1-2 years away depending on the super-2 cutoff. Buxton might not be likely to sign a similar deal now just 1 year away; he almost certainly will not when he is only ~3 months away. If you are content with eventually signing a Dozier type arb buyout deal (a little arb discount, no FA/option years), sure, go ahead and wait. If you want the chance to get a special player on a special deal, I think you have to act now (assuming it is still even possible).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Odor was a poor defender and barely average overall bat when the Rangers extended him. Peak of 2.4 bWAR at the time. That should hardly be a cautionary tale for Buxton. Kiermaier and Simmons would be far better comps for Buxton, given their defensive prowess. Yelich too, albeit from a corner OF spot. All 3 have been solid since they signed their deals, averaging 4+ WAR per season. Obviously there is risk, but I suspect if you wait to see anything more from Buxton, this type of deal will be off the table.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    In regards to my posts upthread (about Sano, Buxton, and Rosario being just 1 year away from arbitration), it should be noted that Berrios is still 2 years away. Coupled with pitcher injury volatility, there would be seem to be the best potential to work out a team-friendly extension for him right now.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    I didn't say you couldn't or shouldn't do extensions with such players. But you're not necessarily getting a great deal. A 3 or even 4 year extension for any of these guys right now wouldn't be particularly valuable. Like Dozier, it would bring some cost certainty, maybe a mild discount, but that's it. The really valuable part of these deals is getting FA years at a discount (see Sale, Quintana, and Eaton for the White Sox as great examples, or even Denard Span as a mild example for us).
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    Wow, Dan Winkler. 2 full years MLB service time already, but still less than 90 days active. He spent about 2 months on rehab assignments last summer alone, so there is definitely some flexibility to get minor league time for these surgery cases. Winkler was actually pretty effective at the end of last year, and his leverage index suggests it wasn't mop-up work either. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/winklda01.shtml
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    That's what I am thinking too. Even Rosario, assuming he's not a super-2 this winter, is only a year away from arbitration -- even if they get hurt at this point, they are each probably going to get a couple mil next winter. The time for discount extensions seems to be earlier than that -- Span was 2 years away from arbitration when he signed his, for example. Dozier was only a year away and didn't give much of a discount (at least he didn't sign away any FA years).
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah, I didn't mean they would have gotten them cheaply. (Although I do wonder what the correct valuation is for Gordon these days. Don't know if this deal was right, but it is certainly possible that his max value to the organization might be adding a few pitching seasons now in trade, rather than a few more infield seasons down the line.) Interestingly, the Yankees got 2.2 IP of fairly effective long relief from Jaime Garcia last night, so maybe the "buy" phase of our deadline strategy wasn't so bad?
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    Just brainstorming, but should the Twins have gotten Robertson and Kahnle? The White Sox were apparently willing to deal early... heck, we could have probably used Frazier too... I guess the response will be that it wasn't worth it with our lack of confident SP, but Robertson and Kahnle are both controlled for 2018 too, and as we saw last night, they can help cover for SP deficiencies.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not limited to 2018. So he could be activated on August 1st, accumulate ~60 days, then stay active for ~30 more days to begin 2019 to meet the requirement. The 90 days also do not have to be continuous. A team could have him active for a month, then DL/rehab him again for a month, and then re-activate him for ~60 days to meet the requirement.
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