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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    Did he say anything about sample size, or standard deviations?
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    Radke ranks among MLB qualifiers: 1996, 29th in ERA-, 14th in IP. 1997, 27th in ERA-, and 9th in IP. 1998, 40th in ERA-, 33rd in IP. 1999, 9th in ERA-, 5th in IP. 2000, 35th in ERA-, 11th in IP. 2001, 29th in ERA-, 15th in IP. ... 2004, 10th in ERA-, 12th in IP.
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    Some takes on Gibson over at Fangraphs : http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-kyle-gibson-and-robert-stephenson/
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Situational Hitting page: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-situational-batting.shtml
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    To be fair, I think they first wanted to hire Molitor back in his mid-40s.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    There is assumption that interest in upgrading our pen from the outside means big money mediocrity deal. It's not necessarily true. There are usually some interesting guys who are a step up from Breslow/Belisle. Trade is another avenue. And of course, sometimes there is a FA like Andrew Miller who is worth the risk of bigger money. Maybe nothing will come of it this winter, but I see no reason to close that avenue off now. We will have plenty of spots left for arms that want to step up. FWIW, Gee is a FA, and Hurlbut is a minor league FA. Neither should have any bearing on our 2018 pen plans. The fact that you would even bother to mention them tells me your pen plan is uncomfortably thin.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    That's about firing Molitor, though. Not a prohibition of "all Molitor discussions" as the poster said (or having "a long sit-down with him during the offseason to go over run-scoring matrixes, statistical probabilities and sacrifice bunting" as Nick said in the article).
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    Sure, but I don't think the topics you mention required "getting to know" Molitor to engage in a meaningful way. "Hi Paul, nice to meet you. What do you think of the state of the team? Do you have any concerns? [Listen and respond to concerns.] Also, here are some data and tools that we provided Francona with in Cleveland, and they really helped him. Do you use anything like this now? If not, we'd love to try in 2017. We'll touch base with you throughout to season to see how it's going." If we're nearly a year into it, and he's still trying silly sac bunts in a pennant race, I'm not sure he's passing the "working closely in a collaborative manner" test that should contribute to the decision whether to re-up or not.
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not saying they never had that conversation. Nick hopes that if the re-up with Molitor, they sit down with him and have that conversation this winter. I'm saying, they either had that conversation last winter and Molitor has not responded to it terribly well in 2017, in which case why would we re-up him and try the conversation again. Or they didn't have that conversation, in which case they I'm not sure why you'd re-up him before having the conversation.
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not implying anything more than what Nick said in the article: "If the team re-ups with Molitor, I do hope that Falvey and Levine have a long sit-down with him during the offseason to go over run-scoring matrixes, statistical probabilities and sacrifice bunting." No reason they couldn't have sat down with him last offseason and done the same thing. (In fact, it doesn't really make sense not to do that last offseason. I'd want to see how he adjusts with that information before I had to make a decision on re-upping him.)
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    A "sit down" isn't about firing him, it's about talking to him.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Got it. I was looking at that page too, but thought there might be a quicker way.
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    FWIW, the baserunner was eventually suspended by the league for 2 games.
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    Interesting that both of the HR were to Jose Iglesias! Didn't remember that. The HR came in Hildenberger's 1st and 3rd PAs vs Iglesias, with a groundout in between. How much are those 2 HR swinging the data? That could be about ~.120 OPS points right there. Other XBH: Kinsler (1st of 2 PA) Abreu, Altuve, and Kevan Smith (2nd of 2 PA) 4 others (1st and only PA) All 4 of his BB came to "1st and only PA" guys too (3 in his first 3 MLB games). Where did you find this split/data?
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    Well, his overall MLB sample size is pretty small too, but that didn't stop Nick from saying "Hildenberger single-handedly changes the outlook of the bullpen going forward dramatically." I think it's fair to pump the brakes a bit on that. I don't want the team to say "the bullpen is just fine with minimal changes" yet again this winter...
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    But how much of the 2017 improvement is only improvement coming after the 2016 regression? Multi-year, Molitor might only be neutral at best.
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    At least the Angels lost to the Twins sleeper agent Andrew Albers.
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Yeah. We talked about how the players reacted, but I am pretty sure Molitor opposed the Kintzler trade too.
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    At the same time, though, elimination at the hands of the Yankees again would sting even more...
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    A lot of marginal guys look good if you take only their best stretches. Mike Pelfrey had a 4.19 ERA after 16 starts this year too, and a 4.24 across 15 starts last summer. Gibson himself had a 4.54 after 13 starts last year, etc. Problem is, you almost certainly get bad stretches too, and you can't predict them. Overall, Gibson and Pelfrey have been almost the definition of replacement level starters the last couple years. I don't have any particular issue with keeping Gibson in the mix for the 5th spot next year, at this point, but I wouldn't lock him into a spot or let his presence dissuade me from other rotation upgrades either.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    It's WAR, but it is a relative ranking among catchers. Is it your claim that Mauer in 2009, in just 109 games caught, was racking up more of those "many things" (catching intangibles) than fellow catchers Bench, Posey, etc.? Or do you have 3-4 catcher seasons in your all-time top 10?
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    By a catcher, no less. Maybe it was professional courtesy for the opposing team catcher?
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    Those are 2016 stats. Pressly is at 32% inherited runners scored this year - not great, but basically league average.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    I believe the poster was referring to Pressly, not Boshers.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    A little uneasy about calling 2017 a meaningful "renaissance" for Mauer. He basically had the same OPS in mid-August last year, in only about 20 fewer PA than he has this year. He is definitely doing better than some of his lower post-concussion points, but I am not sure it is that drastic of an improvement. Do love the lower K rate, hopefully he can maintain that. Otherwise he seems likely largely the same player, and his improved 2017 numbers are more of a function of sample timing / end points.
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