Otto von Ballpark

Lynn was forecasted by MLBTR to sign for 4/56 that winter. I'm not sure how you define "top FA pitcher" but he was in the Ervin, Nolasco, Hughes extension type group, and his 2018 results were well within the expected range of outcomes for that group without any extraordinary factors.

baseballtradesvalues.com (I hate to be that guy, but it's a fun site!) -- anyway, they peg Rosario's median future value at 10.8. His closest value match on the Twins MLB roster is Duffey. He's not getting an ace or probably even a potential ace. And even if you think defensive metrics have been unfair to Rosario, Tommy Pham only clocks in at 14.9, so I don't think better metrics would notably shift Rosario upward. It's just really hard to be valuable when you're close to league average with the bat, at a corner outfield spot, with only 2 years control at arb prices. We'd probably be fortunate to get a small package of prospects/pieces worth 10.8-14.9 by that measure.

As a rough estimate, baseballtradevalues.com gives Snell a median estimated trade value of 93.8, which is higher than any Twin. (Kepler is at 85.1) https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ Our top prospect is Lewis at 68.1, followed by Kirilloff at 54.7, then Graterol at 35.7. Duran and Balazovic clock in at 16 and 13.6, respectively. Now, Tampa is sometimes a motivated seller, but I'm not sure they'd be *that* motivated to move Snell right now. Look how long they held on to Archer until they found the right deal (which turned out very well for them). I think you'd need to give up likely Lewis or at least Kirilloff, plus other pieces, to get Snell right now. (If the Rays were willing to take less than that, frankly I'd be concerned we were buying damaged goods!)

As a bonus: players don't get paid while on PED suspensions! The Twins might be trying to secretly perform their own PED tests on free agents this winter (don't ask how), with an eye toward getting a future discount.

Then what would you call Boof Bonser's playoff debut? A masterpiece? How did he fare the next season? I'm all for seeing what Dobnak can do in 2020, but that is completely irrelevant to the goal of strengthening the top of the rotation this offseason.

Did they? Morton had an edge in fWAR, 6.1 to 4.8, but by actual on-field results (RA9-WAR and bWAR) they were virtually the same. Better value in Morton, sure, but not meaningfully better production. And we'd probably be ecstatic if the Twins had signed either one last winter, and we're hoping they can find another one this winter, even if it costs $140 mil. (I'll grant that we won't be signing any $300 mil guys soon, and that's fine.)

Giving the wives some credit, though, I think even they realize that their husband is only spending ~93 days a year in their home team's city, and 81 of those are "working days" where their husband is at the ballpark for considerable time (and often until 11 PM or later). So really, the difference is ~12 days a year, spread out over 6 months. Even that might overstate it -- the biggest stretch is the 3-4 days of the all-star break, and that can easily be spent anywhere. And even if his "home games" are elsewhere, the player may have road games / off days near his home too, even if he can't fly home for every off day. Outside of extreme cases like, say, Stephen Piscotty, it's probably not a huge factor, even for families. I'm sure it's definitely a preference, but I suspect it often gets exaggerated as a factor in cases like Wheeler's. (Especially in Wheeler's case, as there are no kids in his family yet -- not even a wife, technically, as she's still his fiancé, although I won't quibble too much about that distinction! )

I read it, and considered it, so don't blast me in reply. I get that $118 mil may not have been the Phillies best offer, or it may have already represented an overpay, etc. I still think it could have been worth making such an offer -- no offense to the White Sox, but I don't think they were much of a test for Wheeler's off-field preferences, and it may have been worth overpaying if he was their #1 target, and to avoid getting shut out. Much depends on what the Twins do the rest of the offseason, of course, but I really did not like hearing that the Twins were prepared to offer more but didn't get a chance. As far as 105 not also being worth 125, obviously that was the Twins judgement but it remains to be seen whether it was correct. The FA market in pro sports is nothing like an individual shopping for a car. Car shopping, it is perfectly acceptable (and admirable, even) for people to err on the side of frugality and utility every single time. That's not really the nature of running a pro sports franchise -- it's competitive by nature, and some risks have to be taken. Additionally, the FA market has many more variables than car shopping, and is much harder to predict -- what one sees as the upper limit price on a FA might change dramatically over a short period of time, based on competition and scarcity of resources. Now, it is better that the Twins have failed to sign a big contract so far than to have signed the wrong big contract, but it would be better still if we were able to sign the *right* big contract. That's part of my expectation for this front office too -- not the only part, but a big enough part that I'm following their offseason moves.

Look, it was natural to crow over Darvish earlier -- he missed most of 2018, then looked pretty wild to start 2019, so there was some question as to whether he was a lemon, or cooked (or a cooked lemon, perhaps?). But his second half of 2019 was among the best in baseball. He would have been an asset to any postseason team in 2019, and to any team with contention aspirations for 2020. If he was a FA today, we'd absolutely be interested in him on a 4/81 deal, right? I don't think we should still be crowing about "dodging that bullet", especially before we add anybody new this winter (much less before we see if they are capable of performing like Darvish just did in the second half).

I get the "only 1 out of 30 teams can win the WS each year" thing (although it's little comfort when your team is swept lifelessly out of the first round of the playoffs repeatedly) -- but it doesn't seem to apply to free agents. Not every team is really participating in the FA market, at least not to the same extent. The Twins are among the group which *should* be participating, and should be capable, based on circumstances, so I understand the anxiety when they're not making additions.

I think that post was intended to be sarcastic...

Yes, but I'm not sure why that's notable. He signed for 7/175, earned (and will receive) 3/75, opted out of 4/100.

I don't know that they'd be willing to eat $10 mil *and* fork over a good prospect. The Angels just gave up an apparently good prospect (15th overall pick just 6 months ago) for $12+ mil salary relief, on a player that looked mighty toasty the last two years (-0.7 WAR in 353 PA). Happ was at least a roughly average SP last year. He even made the Yankee playoff roster, albeit in the pen, and he had a couple appearances. The Yankees are probably hoping he'd be worth at least ~$10 mil to someone, without kicking in a prospect.

The Angels were $58 mil under the luxury tax threshold before dumping Cozart -- I don't think they really needed to move him to add anyone, if it was a bad baseball move. Of course, it could be a good baseball move -- maybe they've grown pessimistic on their draft pick. Although it's been so quick, that would call into question their drafting acumen too...

If there are only 53 seasons, of players on 5+ year contracts, then your sample is what, 10 players or less? Over 3 offseasons? I'm not sure that's too meaningful. (Edit: and you're excluding Greinke from those numbers too? Why?) Just nudging your sample one year earlier, I see at least 10 such seasons. Moving it one year later, I see 6 and counting. (And even in your sample, I might count Darvish and his posting fee plus 6 year contract, which would add a few more to your total.) And why the firm 4 WAR cutoff? Jon Lester's all-star season of 2018 counts for nothing using this criteria. Odorizzi's 2019 wouldn't have counted either -- he wasn't on a long-term contract, obviously, but it's an example of an obviously good season that should count if you're judging a contract. Cruz's 2019 would likewise barely qualify -- another 10 games on the DL and he doesn't make it. (And Cruz's great 2015-2018 in Seattle is ignored because it was only a 4 year FA contract.) Speaking personally, I don't want the Twins to sign just *any* long FA deal. I could have told you the Pujols contract would have been a bad idea for us on the day it was signed; same for a few others (Sandoval!). But there are some good ones, and the job of the Twins front office should be to identify and sign those guys -- and be judged on their ability to do so -- not to simply sit out this market completely. And if that's only the best 4 years deal, so be it, but we haven't seen that yet either.

And it cost them the 15th overall pick from 2019.

True, but the Reds also just traded for Bauer, signed Moustakas, etc. And Sonny Gray is likely better than Ray or Jon Gray, and he is controlled longer too. (As an aside, why do we have to discuss 3 pitchers named Gray, Gray, and Ray together )

I don't think Sonny Gray gets mentioned because the Reds aren't close to sellers, judging by their moves. (And in fact they just acquired Gray and extended him last winter.) I think we all just got so used to Sonny Gray being perpetually on the trade block with the A's and Yankees, it's easy to forget.

Thanks for the research. I do enjoy baseballtradevalues.com although it has its limitations. On some level, the Rockies sure seem like they should be sellers, but they've also made some big investments in players for the next few years, including some very good players. Arenado, Story, Blackmon, Marquez are still there, and they might either prefer keeping Gray with them, or getting a return that could help that group more immediately (like Arizona did in their Goldschmidt trade last winter). I feel like it would have to hurt the Twins a bit more to pry Gray from them. Arizona might have a similar goal, perhaps even moreso coming off an 85 win season. And Gordon and Rooker strike me as particularly bad targets for a "reloading" team, as they both seem destined to endure an adjustment period in MLB even if they become good players down the line. (Also worth noting that Bradley has 2 years control left, and they might effectively get an extra year of control over Ray with a QO too, so they may not have an impetus to make that deal right now.) The Cubs are the seller du jour but personally I don't think they're anything close to traditional sellers. They're still built to win in the next couple years. They might get creative to move some money around, and they'll listen if anyone is willing to blow them away to get Bryant, but I don't think they have any interest in moving a guy like Hendricks for "fair value" right now. It should be interesting to see what deals happen this winter, though!

This has been brought up before, but I don't the Marlins would have any interest in Rosario in such a trade. He costs money, and isn't even a very good bet to flip, given his position and performance.

I'm not sure what you mean by this -- Strasburg will still get all of the deferred money he earned through 2019 on his previous deal ($30 mil), even if it hasn't been paid out yet. My joke has nothing to do with the Nats intentions -- just that they frequently defer a lot of money, that's all.

The no-trade clause doesn't really matter -- Strasburg gets no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 player next June anyway.

Not necessarily, assuming no one else offers Cole more. Or perhaps more accurately, if they don't mind waiting around, while Cole decides to wait for a better offer himself.

$80 mil of Strasburg's $245 mil is deferred. Will be interesting to see what they calculate as the "present day value" for luxury tax purposes. His last contract had $70 mil deferred, reducing its "present day value" from $175 mil to $162 mil.

I suspect $246 million of that contract is deferred.