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Otto von Ballpark

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Everything posted by Otto von Ballpark

  1. Otto von Ballpark
    So in the same paragraph, you lay out a response you'd like to see from other posters, and then you preemptively dismiss it? Like I just said above, let's focus more on exchanging our own ideas and less on inventing reasons to invalidate others. (And if you truly want to read emotional reactions to our playoff loss, the October TD archives are available to you. You shouldn't expect or encourage such posts in a December thread about a separate topic.)
  2. Otto von Ballpark
    A two team sample, based on your own chosen parameters, isn't the "hard fact of history", it's trivia. Especially when you do things within that trivial sample like minimize the contributions of Cueto, or exclude the 2014 Royals just because they lost game 7 of the World Series (as if that single game's result should have any effect of the Twins decision-making in 2019). We get it, you clearly believe the Twins don't need to make an aggressive signing or trade to win the World Series. There is nothing wrong with that opinion. But there is also nothing wrong with the opinion that a smart aggressive move could help the team. So let's re-focus the discussion as a friendly exchange of opinions and ideas, and less on using trivia as a weapon to invalidate other opinions. The latter just isn't fun (and that's a fact! ).
  3. Otto von Ballpark
    If your sample size is two teams, I think the conclusion has to be there is no blueprint, rather than there is only a narrow one the Twins must follow. And even within that two team sample, you're doing some big minimization by saying that the pitcher who threw 8 innings of 2-hit ball in the decisive game 5 of the ALDS wasn't a "difference maker" in his team's championship run. (Not to mention his complete game 2 hitter in game 2 of the World Series, the night after his team had to use their bullpen for 8 innings.) I realize it doesn't fit your narrative, but those spots and performances were precisely why his team paid to acquire him in trade, not for his August and September regular season (they had an 8 game division lead at the time of the trade deadline). I am sure his team was very happy with the results of that aggressive move.
  4. Otto von Ballpark
    Do we know if Keuchel ever had a comparable offer last offseason? Say, if some team offered 3/48 or so (plus the draft pick), earlier in the offseason, and Keuchel declined, hoping to get MLBTR's estimated 4/82? Then that offer could have been taken off the table at some point.
  5. Otto von Ballpark
    It's hard to accept because it's not really supported by much evidence. Getting an extra year, even at a slightly lower AAV, is fairly significant, no? It's not like teams normally hand out extra years like candy. Wheeler and Keuchel got a higher AAV than predicted, but the same years; Bumgarner and Ryu primarily got an extra year, Ryu for a little more AAV, Bumgarner for a little less. (Both within any reasonable margin of error for MLBTR's initial estimates, which I think are good but certainly not gospel.) They all did better than expected, just in different ways. And yes, perhaps also to different degrees -- but these guys are all different pitchers too, so I'm not sure why you'd expect a rising tide to lift all of their boats equally. Wheeler and Ryu were *much* better pitchers in 2018-2019 than Bumgarner; Keuchel was willing to sign for a shorter term; Keuchel and Ryu also didn't have draft pick compensation attached. It's not unreasonable to speculate that Arizona's 5/85 offer was perhaps the best Bumgarner could get, pending any evidence beyond Bumgarner's own self-interested claims to the contrary. Sorry to argue on a holiday.
  6. Otto von Ballpark
    Bumgarner got more than expected too -- 18% more guaranteed than MLBTR's estimate, albeit over an extra year. And I get the theoretical idea that guys who wait could get more, but there are limits to that. Bumgarner signed right around the same time as most other major FA SP this offseason, so I suspect he and the others thought they were near that limit. So I'm not sure there is much evidence that his approach was particularly different or special. Heck, we know he *rejected* a 4/70ish offer from Arizona before signing there for 5/85, which seems to imply money was some kind of priority for him, no? He didn't simply jump at an expected value contract to be near his horses, and Arizona must have been convinced he was willing to sign elsewhere if they didn't increase their offer.
  7. Otto von Ballpark
    How much do you think guys like Ryu and Wheeler are making in "secondary income opportunities"? There have been a few discussions on this board about how baseball players aren't particularly marketable compared to other athletes and entertainers. It's worse nationally than locally, but I kinda doubt the Philly cheesesteak equivalent of Sheboygan sausages is a much more lucrative endorsement opportunity, especially not relative to player salaries. Even a $100k difference would only represent half of one percent of Ryu's annual salary. Honest question, how much do guys like Plouffe and Buxton take home from Sheboygan? I could see a lot of better paid vets not even bothering with such deals.
  8. Otto von Ballpark
    First of all, I wouldn't call it lying. I think Bumgarner, like most FA, truly believes he could have gotten more if he hadn't concluded the process. Just like they believe one more at-bat and they would have won the game, etc. One probably doesn't get too far in pro sports without some impressive self confidence! As for why, there really is no downside. The player strokes his ego with a higher value, the agent get to claim a larger figure in future negotiations. The player's new team looks better for getting a bargain. The player looks better to his new home team fans. Seriously, look at all the people here praising Wheeler as a good family man who they can relate to, basely solely on that little nugget of info! That's why I take such reports with a grain of salt. Not that players don't have preferences, of course, but I think they fit into the market (i.e. tiebreakers, counter-offers) more than override it (i.e. I'm taking significantly less to sign with one team).
  9. Otto von Ballpark
    How much of that is related to Cousins, though? It's not like he only struggled under pressure -- pretty much all night, he was missing short, easy targets rather badly. The Packers could pretty much play with zero fear of the passing game (and zero fear of the run).
  10. Otto von Ballpark
    Perhaps. But facing a 4th and 24 with Cousins at that point, fairly deep into our territory, we were really between a rock and a hard place there. Hoping for a Packers mistake may have been our best bet. I can't really fault that punt. Lots of other things to fault, though.
  11. Otto von Ballpark
    I'm not so sure. Wheeler got 18% more guaranteed than MLBTR's prediction -- exactly the same as Bumgarner. Wheeler turned down 20-25% but he's a different pitcher than Bumgarner with a different valuation. Same with the others -- Ryu got more of an increase than that, but he had a much better 2019 too. Keuchel got more as well, but he was willing to only get 3 years guaranteed and less overall. This idea that Bumgarner was destined to get 38% more than projected ($100 mil), if only he had waited or didn't love his horses so much, appears to primarily exist in Bumgarner and his agent's heads at this point. Fact is, we know of 3 reported offers to Bumgarner before he signed (SF, MIN, and AZ). All 3 were 4 years, around $70 mil I think. It seems most plausible that Bumgarner went to Arizona and said he liked them but wanted them to differentiate themselves from the other bidders to get a deal done, and Arizona replied they could add a 5th year if they got creative (lower AAV, deferred money, back loading). Now, his preference for AZ was reflected in that desire to negotiate, but until we get more evidence to support it, I'm highly suspicious of the narrative that Bumgarner was really shaking off $100 mil offers to settle at $85.
  12. Otto von Ballpark
    Gaia: "Leave me out of this."
  13. Otto von Ballpark
    As bad as the Vikes looked last night, I think Green Bay would rather win and get a first round bye and a 2nd round home game. Heck, if the Packers beat the Lions, and the Seahawks beat the 49ers, then the Packers are the #1 seed!
  14. Otto von Ballpark
    In terms of coming back to win at that point, with where we were on the field, it's basically converting 4th and 24 vs recovering an onside kick. I think that's a defensible decision.
  15. Otto von Ballpark
    It's not really crazy-deferred. $15 mil deferred, paid out immediately after the deal ends (years 6-8). I can't find it now, but I thought I read for luxury tax purposes, its present day value is $81 mil, not far from its actual value of $85 mil. And backloading is a little out of the norm but offers zero evidence that he turned down more total money elsewhere. Bumgarner's backloading is virtually identical to what Russell Martin got a few years ago ($7 mil first year of a 5/82 deal, $16.4 mil AAV). James Shields only made $10 mil in the first year of his $18.75 AAV deal. Corbin took the highest offer last winter, but only made $12.5 mil the first year of a $23.3 mil AAV deal. I don't think any of those 3 players were even rumored to have turned down a higher total guarantee. And the fact that Bumgarner only got a 5 team no-trade clause (less than what he had with SF) suggests he's not *too* concerned with remaining in Arizona, or with where he finishes this contract in general.
  16. Otto von Ballpark
    No, the other poster was correct: "A player will have 10 days to accept or decline the qualifying offer, during which time he can negotiate with other teams to survey his market value." http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer
  17. Otto von Ballpark
    AZ seems to go "counter to expectations" more on the win-now side, though, no? Even when selling, trading Greinke at least saved them $53 mil (the bulk of Bumgarner's contract). Trading Goldschmidt netted them two immediate MLB starters, at catcher and in the rotation. They traded a top ~100 prospect at the deadline this year too, for Gallen. I can't see why they would deal Escobar now, coming off a great year with 2 years at $7 mil each left on his contract, unless we way overpaid (either in top prospects or in talent from our MLB roster). Ray is an interesting target, although I wonder if we'll be a good match (see the Goldschmidt return -- they may want more of an immediate contributor in return than the Twins are willing to give up?).
  18. Otto von Ballpark
    Who's Alex Sanchez? I'd be interested in a few of those guys -- but as lotto tickets rather than our top offseason SP addition!
  19. Otto von Ballpark
    Was Martín Pérez an "impact pitcher" acquisition last offseason by this definition? (Cue the "negative impact" jokes.) He had a -0.9 bWAR in 2018 (-0.1 fWAR) but the two years before that he was 1.8 and 2.3 bWAR (or 2.2 and 2.3 fWAR). He was younger too. I'll grant Odorizzi was better, but they seem to be in a similar class by the parameters you've introduced here. Odorizzi might show the upside of aiming in that class, but Pérez seems to show the downside (and also serves a reminder that this coaching staff might be very good, but we can't expect them to be perfect at turning guys around either). I hope the Twins were (and still are) aiming higher than two SP additions from that class this winter, coming off a division title, lots of payroll space, and lots of prospect capital. Seems almost recklessly conservative to not aim higher than that.
  20. Otto von Ballpark
    Yup. It's 7 years, but it's an unusual 7 year deal. $10 mil a year? With only 1 arb year? Hicks doesn't have to do *that* much to be worth that deal from the Yankees. He could even get cut or salary dumped the last couple years and still be worth it, overall.
  21. Otto von Ballpark
    The Odorizzi acquisition definitely had an impact, but the term "impact" is from this offseason -- and has a very different context than the impact you are describing here. I think if our "impact" pitching acquisition this offseason is coming off a 0.1 bWAR season in 2019, and posts a 1.5 bWAR full season mark in 2020, with only one year of control beyond that -- I don't think I would view that as favorably as Odorizzi, even if we "win" the trade and get good value in the process. Hence my original reply, why the Odorizzi example isn't really all that applicable or reassuring in the context of this offseason's goals, even if the Odorizzi move was just fine for the time it was made.
  22. Otto von Ballpark
    Obviously this is all hypothetical, but I'm not sure aggregate stats are the way to go. With his dominant 2nd half, Darvish could have been an asset in the 2019 postseason, and on a 4/81 deal going forward. As far as Cruz, more likely Darvish would have impacted other contracts from the same offseason -- Lynn obviously, and maybe Reed? Reed's money even carried over into 2019 and would have arguably been a better "bullet to dodge"! And remember, we were almost $10 mil under our 2018 payroll in 2019, so it wouldn't necessarily have taken much more than Reed's $8 mil to fit Darvish into a 2019 budget. But even if it did, the late signing of Marwin was probably more likely to get squeezed out than the early signing of Cruz. Obviously this is all hypothetical, and there are all kinds of "butterfly effect" things that could have happened in the meantime, but it's not clear to me at this point that signing Darvish would have been worse than the moves we made and/or the remaining moves we are currently left considering this offseason.
  23. Otto von Ballpark
    It wouldn't be cheap, but Kirilloff or especially Lewis would be a pretty compelling start to such a package. Snell hasn't been good enough, often enough, to be *that* untouchable.
  24. Otto von Ballpark
    The Bumgarner thing was only $15 mil (he claims he had two 5/100 offers), but it has not been corroborated by anyone else. Seems kind of suspect that there would have been zero leak or confirmation of such an offer. The White Sox reported offer for Wheeler was "more than $120 mil" but I don't believe I saw anything more specific. Even at $125 mil, that's less than a 6% difference, and the White Sox were the worse team too (which I'd add as another factor, at least as a tiebreaker when the money is close). If the Twins or Dodgers offered $125 mil, I think it could have been received differently. Not saying that the Twins should have made those offers -- just saying this isn't very strong evidence of the relationship of other factors vs money.
  25. Otto von Ballpark
    It was a solid trade -- but was Odorizzi an "impact pitcher" at the time, or in his first season here? Teams generally aren't trading guys with fewer question marks than the FAs. Also, Wheeler and Bumgarner only got 18% more than MLBTR estimates, less if you discount Bumgarner's deferred money and extra year. Maybe we wouldn't have had to pay 30-40% if we had been aggressive earlier? And this cuts both ways. Two years ago, we only offered Darvish 40% *less* than MLBTR's prediction. I'd be more open to sitting out a hot market if we had been more aggressive in a slow one.
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