LA Vikes Fan

Well, these last two series have really shown how wide the gap is between this year’s Twins and this year’s White Sox. They just have substantially better start pitching, a better bullpen, and a better lineup. Time for us to retool or we’re going nowhere against these guys for the next few years.

I understand the comments about how bad the Twins could be if we trade away the vets. The real question though is what are the choices here? I think you have to start with the idea that the team as presently constructed is simply not good enough to contend for a division title, and a ways from being able to contend for a World Series title. If we assume that the goal is to get into contention hopefully sooner rather than later, what do we need to do? I think the best and quickest path really has three elements that will negatively impact this year and maybe next year. First, we need to provide playing opportunities for the next wave of talent to see what we actually have. That means trading Pineda, Simmons, maybe Cruz, and Robles, and trading or going the DFA route with Happ, Colome, and maybe the 34 year old Theilbar. Sano and Kepler should also be available in the right deal but we shouldn't just give them away because it's possible they will rebound. We need to provide playing opportunities on an every day or close to everyday basis for Larnach and Kiriloff, and at least part time opportunities for Gordon, Jeffers, Miranda, and maybe Celestino. On the pitching side, Ober needs to stay in the rotation, and I would like to see Winder and Barnes get at least 10 starts in August and September. I would also like to see Andrew Vasquez, Ian Hamilton, and Yennier Cano getting regular work out of the Twins bullpen starting on August 1, not to be sent back down at the first sign of trouble. . Second, we need to re-sign the unsigned part of the core of the next few years' team - Berrios, Buxton and Rogers. That may mean we have to trade Donaldson or not keep Cruz around in order to have the financial flexibility to pay the roughly $40 to $50 million a year those three are going to command on the market. I would love to do both, sign those three and retain Cruz and Donaldson, but I think that's going to be difficult for ownership to swallow. To me, signing those three is the key to being able to contend over the next 2 to 4 years. Without them, we probably need to go to a complete tear down and rebuild. Third, we have to find at least one free agent starting pitcher over the winter that can slot in no farther down the number three in a contending rotation, or a similar guy that we can get by trading prospects other than those listed above. That's probably a $15 to $20 million a year guy. I don't have any names to throw out there because I don't know who's going to be available this winter, but I'm thinking a pitcher with a profile similar to Lance Lynn or Dallas Kuechel as compared to a Trevor Bauer or Marcus Stroman. I think if we do those three things we have a chance at having a contending team in 2022 and a very good chance of a contending team in 2023. I think this also means that the 2021 team is going to be pretty bad and may only win 65 to 75 games. I can get behind that though, if there is a real plan to retool the team and make us competitive in the next year or two. I think one bad year is a small price to pay given where we are now. What I can't stomach is the idea of keeping these mediocre veterans around so that we win 75 or 80 games instead of 65 or 70 games in 2021 because all that's going to do is set the necessary retooling back another year.

I don’t believe Berrios will be moved at the deadline unless there is a significant overpay by some team. I think he will be traded this winter and then only if he rejects whatever best and final offer the Twins put out for him. I don’t think LaVelle Neal necessarily has “inside information“, but his column in the Strib says Berrios is looking for five years, $100 to $125 million. Frankly, in today’s MLB he is worth that and the Twins should pay it. That may mean the team trades Donaldson to free up payroll space. I’m all for trading Donaldson even if the return is mediocre IF the money is immediately used to sign Berrios. The rest of the expiring contracts crowd is not particularly inspiring and probably won’t generate much more than lower level prospects with the possible exception of Nelson Cruz. Even there, his market is limited because he can’t play in the field so there may not be much there either. Still, I would trade those guys for prospects for two reasons. First, prospects are better than no return at year end. More importantly though, it would free up playing time for the younger guys particularly on the pitching side. The rest of the season should be about evaluating talent so we can fill holes in the off-season for next year. Frankly, winning and losing is secondary.

I like that idea. I think the chances of getting much pitching talent for Donaldson at the deadline aren’t very high. Make the deal if we can, but in the more likely event that we can’t, the off-season is the time to make that decision.

Trading Donaldson is the right move IF the savings are used to re-sign Berrios and/or sign strong starting pitching of of the free agent market. If the Twins will do that, the return is almost irrelevant ; it's the salary relief that helps the most. My thinking to trade Donaldson and use every dollar saved to re-sign Berrios.

I agree with the basic premise - this team has enough core talent to re-tool rather than having to rebuild. I also agree with your analysis of who’s in that core with one exception - Polanco is a necessary core player that we should not trade unless someone offers strong young pitching with upside. We need his bat and we’re going to possibly need him to play SS the rest of this season and next assuming we trade Simmons. I think this Board has underrated Polanco and overrated Kepler for years. Polanco is a starting caliber MI on a contender (better at 2B to be sure but a passable SS). Kepler is a 4th OF on a contender unless he finds something soon. I’d love to see someone sit Kepler down and tell him we want him to hit .260-.280 with 15-20 HRs, NOT .230 with 25-30 HRs and see if he can alter his approach. Donaldson is the tougher call. I just think that we’re going to need to trade his contract to free up payroll to sign Berrios. If I’m wrong and we can have both AND Buxton, then only trade him if you can get some young pitching in return. Your bottom line is absolutely right though, all of this depends on whether we can re-sign Berrios, Buxton and, to a certain extent, Rogers. If we can re-sign at least Berrios and Buxton, re-tooling is the way to go and I like the plan. If we can’t, time for a re-build. The timing isn’t now though, not at this trade deadline. Decision time is this winter when we’ll know where we stand with the 2/3 key guys.

Good analysis. Unfortunately, we now know what Kepler brings to the tablein a normal year- 2019 being the outlier- verygokd OF defense and a below average slash line of around .235/.315/.425 (.740). He's even worse this year but Im hoping this tear is the bad outlier the way 2019 was the good outlier. Can’t hit left handed pitching to save his life. Sounds like a platoon player at best, really a 4th OF on a good team. So, what to do now? Probably nothing. Trade him if you can get a good return, but we probably can’t. We don't have anyone pushing him that hard since Sano is so bad he’s giving up 1st base to Kiriloff. Keep him and see how much we need him next year unless we get a good offer.

I completely agree. There’s actually a foundation of a decent to contending team here if they can just add some starting pitching. Let’s clear the decks of expensive contracts to guys who aren’t really performing or aren’t really long term pieces and use the money thus winter to sign a FA pitcher, shortstop, and, most importantly, our three key after 2022 free agents.

We do have some decent short term pieces to trade in Robles, Simmons, Happ, and even Cruz. I think what teams are waiting on is to see whether the Twins will trade what they really want - Berrios, Buxton and Rogers. Other teams are going to want to be sure those three are not available before they pivot to the short term veterans typically trade at the trade deadline. My view is you keep the three main pieces and try to sign them over the winter before you even consider a trade unless you are overwhelmed with an offer that includes MLB ready players with significant upside. The veterans are worth trading since they are unlikely to be here next year, with the possible exception of Cruz. I would also really seriously consider trading Donaldson, not because of the return as much as because of the money it would free up to hopefully help sign the three guys we really want to keep.

I will at least be consistent - trade Donaldson and use every cent of the savings to sign Berrios. The return is basically irrelevant; the point is to free up payroll for the player we need to keep the most.

I think we're stuck watching Sano create a breeze at least for the rest of this year and next. No one will take him because of his contract and I don't think any team will give us anything of substance for him even if we eat the contract. He is like the overpaid NFL player on the team up against the salary cap. Everyone knows your only choices are to keep him and play him or cut him and pay his salary with all the other teams able to pick him up for basically nothing. I think there may be a team or two (Miami with Rowson?) that would be willing to take a shot at unlocking his potential but not if they have to give up a prospect or pay any money to do it. Why not? Because they can just sit back and wait to see if we cut him, and they can have a basically free shot at unlocking that potential. The Twins aren't going to cut him and eat his contract, especially since it's possible he would go somewhere else and actually perform in the manner his talent dictates he should perform, thus making the team look really bad. We're stuck with Sano unless there's a team out there really salivating over the prospect of turning him around and even then we probably have to take back a similarly bad contract/player in a trade. All of the options with Sano are equally hideous. He is likely to be around for the foreseeable future.

Well, that was ugly. An ugly end to an ugly series. And now it is officially over. Nothing left for us to do but debate the extent of the necessary housecleaning, who should get a shot, and who's head should roll as result of all this. The good news is that we all have Twins Daily to debate these and other critical topics. That will be my primary source of Twins entertainment for the rest of the season. It sure won't be the team.

Extremely well said. My proposal is no guarantee of success, particularly in the short term. What I think is that 3 things have become pretty clear. First, the team as presently constructed is not good enough to contend. This year isn't just because of injuries, off years, etc., it's because we aren't good enough talent wise. Second, we have some talent in the pipeline to help but we don't know enough about what we have on the pitching side to understand our medium or long term needs. Third, re-signing Berrios, Buxton and/or Rogers is a big key to deciding if we need a shorter term re-load or a longer term tear down and rebuild. My view is that this year is essentially a throw away and should be used to evaluate prospects. We're doing a good job with that for Larnach, Kiriloff, Gordon, Ober; need to add 4-5 more starting and relief pitchers to that list, plus Miranda. The upside is that trading vets allows us to do that and opens up the possibility of financial flexibility to sign our own and other FAs in the offseason to fill holes. The downside is that if you think this year's team is bad now, wait until the vets are gone. It's going to be worse and might be a lot worse. I think it's worth that short term pain for the potential medium and long term gain. I don't see that it really matters if we win 60-70 games or 70-80 games this year. Both are non-competitive. What I really don't want to see is us fielding a veteran non-competitive team and THEN deciding to start over with younger players on the way up ( or at least that's the hope). All we've then done is waste time because that locks us into a non-competitive team in 2022 and maybe even 2023. A few wins this year isn't worth that. We have a chance to turn this year's lemon into lemonade by using this season to develop guys. The lemonade may not taste good this year (probably won't), but there's a better chance it will be palatable in 2022, 2023 and beyond if we use this as a developmental year and try really hard to sign the 3 internal free agents who can actually make a real difference on the field ( in Buxton's case, when's he actually there). That's where I start.

I agree with this entirely. I’ve said on other posts that the most important decision is to decide whether or not you can re-sign Berrios and Buxton for something that makes sense. Having said that, I would be willing to do a slight overpay for both because I think they are the two most critical pieces on the roster if we want to be contenders in the next 2 to 4 years. I think the alternative if you can’t re-sign those two is to go with the tear down and rebuild route. I think what I outlined still makes sense if you go for the tear down and rebuild except that you probably trade Rogers since he should bring a good return and will be older by the time you’re ready to contend again. Same goes double for Nelson Cruz. I think the rest of it works regardless of whether this is a reload or a rebuild. With all of that said, I don’t think this month is the time you have to make that decision unless you find out for sure that re-signing those two is just not going to be an option. I think the better time to make the trade is in the off-season anyway because I think we will get a better return and that gives us time to actually try to negotiate the deal. I do agree though, that before the start of next season you need to have a firm decision made on resigning Berrios, Buxton and Rodgers.

You're right about that although it does save the remainder if their salary for the season (except for Shoemaker). Hopefully that will help ownership commit the dollars necessary to keep Berrios, Buxton and Rogers for the next 3 years. To ge clear, my approach would be to trade these guys, use the Donaldson/Kepler money to sign Berrios (20-23m) and part of Buxton (the remaining 7-10m). We then promote internally rather than use FA to fill out next year, and use the FA/last year money we spent for this year (roughly $36 between Simmons, Pineda, Happ, Colome, and Robles) for the rest of Buxton (10-13m), and Rogers (8/9m). That should leave 14-17m for a mid-rotation FA starting pitcher and keep payroll flat. Increase payroll by 12m and we can keep Cruz, which I would like to do to stabilize the lineup. Internally, Gordon, Arraez, Polanco, and Miranda cover the middle infield and 3B, Larnach, Buxton, Kiriloff, Refsnyder, and a now minor leaguer (Celestino or de la Trinidad) the OF, Sano/Garver 1B, Jeffers/Garver/Rotvedt C. Hamilton/Cano/Moran/Vasquez/Stashak/Thorpe/Smeltzer fill out the bullpen behind the 4 we keep. The rotation still is an issue with Berrios, Maeda, 14-18m FA, followed by some combination of Dobnak, Ober, Jax, Duran, Winder, Sands, Smeltzer and Thorpe. Frankly, I think thats a better team than the current one for the same price, and one thats more fun to watch. And that assumes the trades don’t get us a MLB ready prospect. My view is that engaging in a significant sell off of veteran talent by August 1 does not have to mean a complete rebuild next year. If we follow this kind of a blueprint, we can still field the competitive team next year with a good future beyond next year. The rest of this year will be pretty painful to watch But at least we can use the latter half of the season as development time to give us a running start toward 2022 and 2023.

I think we sell but not because of the chances of a great return. It ain't happening. We sell to free up payroll that we use to re-sign Berrios and Buxton. That’s why we sell. Keeping guys because we aren’t going to get a great return is the height of short term thinking. Gone - Donaldson, Happ, Simmons,Colome, probably Kepler. Hope to get something but probably not. Doesnt really matter. Gone if we can get a bag of baseballs (DFA) - Shoemaker. I’d like to keep Cruz for next year since he isn’t likely to bring much. Use the money to sign Berrios, Buxton, and/or Rogers.

It’s very good to see Winder and Miranda moved up to AAA. I would really like to see Winder get five or six starts at the MLB level this year and Miranda get 100-150 at bats. Let’s see if one or both can help us in 2022 or if they need more time and 2023 or 2024 is a more realistic timeframe. There should be some opportunities for both after the trade deadline assuming we move a veteran or two. I’m a little surprised that neither Andrew Vazquez or Ian Hamilton has gotten an opportunity to pitch out of the bullpen with the Twins yet this year. Both seem very dominant this year in AAA and I believe both are around 27 so now is really the time to find out what they can do. Again, this may just need to wait until the second half of the season but it sure seems to me that both those two guys should get at least 6-8 weeks of time in the Twins bullpen this year to see if they can be part of that pen next year. There certainly will be a need for bullpen depth next year and this year would be a great time to find out if these two guys can be part of that depth.

If John Bonnes is right we have $35-40m to spend next year. Step 1 - trade Donaldson. The return is irrelevant; the payroll savings is what we need. Frees up $21.75m in 2022 and $16m in 2023, with $8m buyout. Trade Kepler, same rationale plus he' s losing the job to Larnach/Kiriloff anyway with de la Trinidad close behind. Corner OFs who hits .235/.318/.440 (.758) career, .200-.220/.293/.394 (.687) this year are not hard to replace or exceed at the plate. Tough to replace his glove but if we keep Buxton not as big a deal and corner OF is a hitting first position, not a fielding first position. Frees up $6.75m in 2022 and $8.5m in 2023. Total available new payroll $$ - $28.5m in 2022, $24m in 2023, more in 2023 if we exercise the buy-out. Now we have $63.5 - 68.5m to spend in 2022 assuming a flat payroll. How to spend it: Rogers - 3 years, $27m - $9m AAV ($545.5-59.5m left) Berrios - 5 years, $110m - $22m AAV ($32.5-37.5m left) Buxton - 4 years, $80m - $20m AAV ($12.5-17.5m left) Pineda - 3 years $33m - $11m AAV ($1.5-6.5m left) or Cruz - 1 year $12m (maxs out 2022, opens up 2023 with more $$ to spend). Can use remainder on a bullpen arm or send to trading team to offset Donaldson's salary. Arraez or Miranda plays 3B, Polanco and Gordon SS and 2B. Larnach/Arraez/de la Trinidad/ Refsnyder play LF, the latter 2 are 4th and 5th OFs. IF no Cruz, Sano at DH, Kiriloff at 1B. If Cruz, for one year Kiriloff in RF with Sano/Garver at 1B. The key is losing Donaldson's and Kepler's or an equivalent salary. IF we do that and IF the 4 above players want to re-sign with the Twins (the biggest IF), this is doable. Many other variations of the same concept out there. Substitute Sano ($9.5m in 2022, $14.5m in 2023) for Kepler and the 2022 savings are bigger, Substitute Polanco ($5.5m/7.5m/10.5m in 2022-24) for Kepler and they're smaller. Sano harder to trade than Kepler because of salary v. performance but bigger potential upside if he "finds it" again, Polanco bigger loss because he's just better than Kepler and the savings are smaller. The money is there if we are willing to make the hard choices. Frankly, trading Donaldson and Kepler are not hard choices for me given their performance. Time to move on so we can keep the guys we really want and need to keep.

Hiw about a timeline for Refsnyder? I’d much rather see him in CF than Celestino. Nice kid, good glove, bat just isn't MLB ready. A Refsnyder/Kepler CF would be a step up.

I did forget about Ober, so maybe the plan is for him to start Monday in Chicago, Berrios Tuesday, and come back to Jax on Wednesday.

Interesting. I guess it depends a little bit on who starts Monday. I have this uneasy feeling that Shoemaker will wind up making the start on Monday because of the lack of anyone else. If you subtract him from the bullpen equation, we’re pretty light going into the weekend games. That’s why I was thinking that either Jax or Coloumbe would be sent back down for a fresh arm.

Any roster moves today? You gotta figure that Jax is used up for the next 4 days so he should be on the shuttle back to Saint Paul to be replaced by a “fresh“ relief arm. Perhaps the same for Coloumbe. May be a chance for Ian Hamilton, Andrew Vazquez, or someone like that to come up?

Two thoughts. Replace Simmons with Gordon until he shows you he can’t play shortstop and then move over Polanco. I’ve been advocating on other threads to trade Josh Donaldson even if it’s just a salary dump and includes money, and that would create a place for Arraez to start every day. Regardless, it’s a developmental year so let’s play Gordon at shortstop for 30-40 games and see if he can play the spot. We need to know. Next, why trade Robles? Let’s re-sign him for something like two years/$6 -$9 million. He’s not going to fetch a huge return and frankly is more valuable to us as a quality bullpen arm than he’s likely to be to anybody else. Keep him and between Rogers, Robles, Alcala, and Duffy, we actually have the outlines of a decent back end of a bullpen. Trade Cruz, Donaldson, Simmons and, if he’s healthy enough, Pineda. Replace them with Sano/Garver/Rooker/guys getting the day off in the field, Arraez, Gordon, and Barnes/Winder/Duran, respectively. Trade Happ if you can find a taker. Keep Colome In the hope that he rebounds to what he used to be since he has an option at the end of his contract and we aren’t going anywhere anyway, and it doesn’t look like he’s blocking anybody. Trade Kepler if the return is there. Get some relief innings for Cano, Ian Hamilton, Andrew Vasquez, and Moran in the second half. The rest of this year could be fun and productive if we get with the program and develop our guys/evaluate talent. Let’s get this party started!

While any player is certainly tradable for the right deal, I would keep Arraez unless we are blown away by some offer. I do see the upcoming middle infield backlog what effectively three second baseman - Polanco, Gordon and Arraez - None of whom appear to be a high-quality starting every day shortstop. I would like to create a way for Arraez to play basically every day to keep his bat in the lineup. I think the answer is simple - trade Donaldson. I don’t think you do that because of the great haul we’re going to get for him, I don’t think it’s there, but we dump his contract and that of Cruz and maybe Kepler so that we can use the money to sign Berrios, Rogers and/or Buxton long-term. If we trade Donaldson, Arraez and Polanco man second and third with Gordon as the infield/outfield utility guy. What about Miranda, you say? Well, he’s been in the minors for a while, wasn’t added to the 40 man roster last winter, and didn’t get drafted by anybody. He’s having a great year this year in AA, so let’s bring him up and see where he is on the development path. He may be ready in a year or two and we will have to find a spot for him on the 40 man roster, another good reason to trade Donaldson. If Miranda comes up and beats out Arraez for the third base job, we can always trade Arraez at that point. The bottom line is that we do have a bit of an infield crunch with a lot of guys who can’t play shortstop. I don’t think the way to solve that is to trade a productive, very cost controlled player like Arraez. I do think the idea that we’re going to get a top 100 prospect, or even a organizations’s top 20 prospect in return is a bit of a fantasy. I think the better move is to trade the under productive, more expensive player like Donaldson even if the trade is effectively a salary dump. I think it does two great things, (1) Keeps the younger player whose timeline is with the developing guys around, and (2) frees up money to try to sign Berrios, Buxton and/or Rogers.

I think the decision on Berrios is actually pretty easy. Lance McCullers got five years, $85 million. Berrios is a significantly better investment both in terms of quality and then likely longevity given his work ethic and past performance. He is clearly worth a five-year/$100, million type contract and might be worth more. The Twins could stagger the payment so that his salary went up significantly after Donelson comes off the books. Quality top of rotation starting pitching is the hardest thing to develop and the hardest thing to find. Even if Berrios is only really a number 2 starter, and I think he might develop into a true number one still, he is worth the money. He is the guy I will try the hardest to sign. Buxton is the much harder case because of his injury history and the fact that until this year he’s really never shown he could consistently hit major-league pitching at a high level. However, if he really is what we’ve seen this year when he’s played he will command $20-$25 million a year on the market although that will probably come with some strings in the form of a games played incentive. I would love to see the Twins be the team that signed him to that contract but I do recognize that our resources are not unlimited. I do think there is a way to sign them both without straining the budget if we are willing to make a couple of hard decisions. First, we need to know we can sign them to these contracts. Then, we need to offload some payroll. The candidates are obvious. Trade Cruz for pitching prospect(s), and replace him with a combination of Sano, Garver, Rooker and off day starters. Makes the team weaker in the short run but frankly all we’re ever going to get from Cruz is the short run. Trade Donaldson Without sending much money even if it means getting a lower return. This is a salary dump to sign the other two guys so you have to know you can sign the other two guys before you do this. Replace him with Arraez as the every day third baseman, with Gordon and Miranda coming up behind. Then, if you have to to make the numbers work, trade Kepler. The combination of Larnach and Kirilloff can handle the corner outfield spots, with Sano and Garver handling first base, or Kiriloff can be moved to first base with Rooker/Refsnyder/Garlick being the other corner outfielder. By doing this you free roughly $40 million a year off the current payroll which you then give to Berrios and Buxton to sign them long-term. We don’t have a lot of other long-term big money commitments coming up since Larnach and Kiriloff are very early in their careers. Same for Arraez, who also probably won’t ever command huge money. The big negative is this approach would hamstring us from signing big money free agents for the pitching staff but I frankly don’t think we’re going to do that anyway. I would advocate for giving Rogers three years/$20 million, giving Robles two years/$6-8 million and filling in from there. We have Duffy and Alcala in their less expensive years still, so we’re only looking to fill 3 to 4 other spots. We stunk at it this year but have been successful and others. This team doesn’t have the payroll to be filled with strong, established players in all areas.