LA Vikes Fan

Makes sense. Now is the time to switch up the rotation to get your horse more work. He can rest in September if we're out of totally by then.

Agreed. That would work just as well. Does that work all the way through when we get to no off days? in other words, my goal is to have Ryan pitch as many as possible all on 4 days rest and not have a bullpen game.

I guess I wasn't very clear with what I meant by "statistical noise". I was attempting to refer to the tendency of fans to dismiss giving up the lead in the 7th or 8th as a blown save. Giving up the lead in the 7th or 8th is a blown save statistically and is a fair reflection of a relievers ability to close out games. The numbers don't lie, Duran is better at preserving leads of less than 3 runs in the late innings than is Jax. In fact, using the last 3 innings is a more valid statistical analysis because over time it tends to take out the variables of the size of the lead and portion of the order faced. Focusing on only one inning, be it the 7th, 8th, or 9th, skews the analysis. My point is simple, however inarticulately argued - Duran is better at closing out games than Jax, and by a fairly significant amount. My view is that the team would feel the loss of Duran much more than the loss of Jax so if I were to trade one (and wouldn't trade either), I would trade Jax. That's especially true since I think Varland can take over Jax's role.

I'm not sure where you guys are getting the idea that Jax can be the closer. His career record is 15 saves in 38 opportunities for a closing rate of 39.5%. Some of that is statistical noise from giving up leads in the 7th or 8th inning and going 1 for 7 in 2022, but in 2024 he went 10 for 16 for a 62.5% closing rate. Duran on the other hand is 73 for 82 since 2022, for a closing rate of 89%. This is why Duran closes and Jax does not. Jax is a fine, very good high leverage late inning arm. He is most definitely NOT a closer. Jax could be replaced by Varland (although I'm not sure who replaces Varland). We do not have a replacement for Duran. Nothing kills a team faster than losing late inning leads (we all remember Ron Davis). There is more to closing than throwing hard; you have to have the mental fortitude for the job and very few pitchers have it. You keep guys who can close unless you a are doing a tear down and rebuild or have one in waiting, which we don't. Keep Duran.

I agree with the sentiment but not with trading Duran or Jax, although I would listen on Jax. Also, I live in LA and follow the Dodgers. Rushing is not seen here as any sort of "can't miss" guy. He's a potentially good hitter but not a great catcher (which may not matter as much if we get the electronic strike zone). I think the comparisons to Lee are pretty accurate - much more likely to be a high floor, with a slightly above average regular ceiling than a star. You're right, we do need more hitting talent on the MLB roster. Maybe we can get someone by trading Castro and a 40-45 FV pitching prospect to a 2B or 3B needy team? Not sure I see much else.

I disagree. Not enough. Add in either Freeland or Quintero and I get interested and would even throw in a 40+ prospect like Winokur or Eeles. Duran is ta real deal closer with 3 playoff runs before he even becomes a FA. Once he hits LA, he won't leave unless he falls of because they will pay what it takes to keep him. Also, the Dodgers are a WS contender and they are desperate for a closer. BTW, I'd prefer to keep Duran over Jax. Duran has shown he can close. Jax has shown he cannot. Varland can replace Jax. We got nobody to replace Duran.

Is Misiewicz going on the IL? Seems like he should if he left after one walked batter last night. I half expected them to call up Ober to pitch today but now with Festa going on the Il it seems like the call is Ober for Misiewicz (IL) tomorrow with Adams staying as the long man. I would expect Ober to start Saturday or Sunday against the Nats. It stinks that Festa had to go on the IL, but we should be able to cover without a bullpen game with the 3 off days coming up if we jigger things a little so Ryan pitches Friday - on 4 days rest from last Sunday's start. Nats would be Ryan, Matthews, Ober. Red Sox would be SWR, Paddack, Ryan. Guardians would be Matthews, Ober, SWR. Tigers would be Paddack (if he's still here), Ryan, Matthews. Everyone is still on 4 days rest until after Festa is eligible to come back. And who knows, maybe we're close to Lopez getting a rehab start or 3.

This team isn’t going anywhere this year in all likelihood. Why complain about the FO not making acquisitions? This pig needs no lipstick. The rest of this year is about seeing if we have enough to contend next year. Through that lens, these 3 coming back are very important. Is Keaschall a starting 2B or 1B next year because he can hit? Are Ober and Matthews 2 of the 5 starters with Lopez, Ryan, and SWR/Festa? Both critical questions to be answered. So if this year is to see for next year, very important returns. As for contending this year, meh, not so much.

Or you could say that the Twins traded a broken down 31 year old fan favorite who we couldn’t use and who hit .213 in 2024, the year after the trade, with a .651 OPS. This year he’s hitting better with a .776 OPS but has to DH because he can’t play in the field well enough any more and can’t run. In return, we got a SP who did nothing, a RP who has been decent but not great in middle relief, and 2 prospects, one of whom is doing well enough in AA to warrant the article. Sounds like a fair trade, maybe even a win for the Twins now, and definitely a Twins win if Gonzales makes the MLB level for more than a cup of coffee. Im no big fan of Falvey, but this isn’t the trade to criticize. It’s frankly what we should do now with a couple guys, trade players who aren’t in our long term plans for players with upside who might be.

Thanks for making the list. I don’t really see anybody you’ve missed. The problem with this list is the problem with being a buyer in a nutshell. The guys you might actually want, O’Hern, Diaz, and Suarez, will be expensive and you won’t be able to hold them for very long. The guys you can keep, like McMahon and Laureano, just aren’t that good. Murphy is interesting but I’d have to know the price. To me, the smarter move is to play the guys we got and go shopping in the off-season. I would start with getting France off the roster. He’s the same guy the Mariners thought wasn't good enough to be on their team. Play Clemens at 1B everyday or in a platoon with Sabato. I would also send Keirsey back down and bring up Martin. Play Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, and Lee five days a week down the stretch and find 3 games a week for Martin and Sabato. Recall Funderburk and lose Misiewicz. Give Ohl and Adams a shot over Topa. Get these guys out there regularly and see if they can improve. We need to know for next year.

I live in LA and follow the Dodgers. Rushing does have a chance to be a MLB quality MLB catcher, more likely to be another Ryan Jeffers. Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone, not so much. Both of them have had real opportunities to step up with all the injuries the Dodgers have had and neither has been able to do so. Same for Dustin May. It’s hard to match up with the Dodgers because they traded so much of their quality depth in the last couple years for people like Glasnow. There just isn’t a lot of quality pitching or hitting in the upper minors in their system. The other possible guy to get would be Kim, who has really hit well for the Dodgers in a reserve role, but I doubt they would be willing to give him up. Besides, he’s another second baseman and I doubt that we need more of those.

I’m generally in agreement that we shouldn’t be trading established players for prospects except that we should either re-sign the guys on expiring contracts that we want to keep or trade them. Castro and Bader both have real value, Coloumbe and Stewart have some. Those 4 are worth trading for prospects unless you’re gonna sign them now to bring them back next year. I’m very much against trading anybody with value and multiple years of control for prospects, including but not limited to Ryan, Jax, and Duran. I would keep them all myself, but if you’re going to trade one of them, you must get back a controllable MLB middle of the order bat. This team is not good this year, but they’re not so far off that they couldn’t be good next year. Not a time to blow things up by trading quality players unless you get real MLB quality back.

I tend to agree not to trade all star quality players with more than one year of control remaining, especially pitchers. It’s very hard to get even a fair return, much less an overpay. Keep Ryan and Duran, keep Jeffers since catching is in very short supply.. Other than that, everyone should be available. This is the year to find out what we have not play guys who won’t be here next year to eke out two or three more wins. Make a decision on Castro and Bader. Either they're back next year or they’re traded and if you don’t know if you can bring them back next year, trade them. This group is done.

Zebby starts today, Ober back soon? Paddack to the bullpen. Please don’t start him against the Dodgers. Let’s face it, we stink on ice.

I understand that thought which would point to trading Duran and/or Jax (and possibly Ryan) now, trade the expiring contracts, and lean into a rebuild. I just don't agree. I think the goal is to build a 90+ win team that can compete in the playoffs. I think the pitching is almost there already, but the hitting and defense need work. I think they can get here on the hitting side with rebounds from 2 of Correa, Lewis and Wallner, plus the addition of Keaschall if he's 85%+ of what he showed in his brief audition. The defense is a tougher issue, but we can improve the OF defense by re-signing Bader(making Larnach and Wallner part-time OFs and/or a full time DH) and Lee helps us at 2B if he can hit well enough to play every day. I think we'll know a lot more after the second half of this season and the first half of next year and I don't think that the return for those three pitchers will be materially less if we wait until the 2026 trading deadline, unless of course one gets injured. I'm willing to take that risk to wait. This is all probably an academic exercise any way since the possibility of a sale is likely to mean that very little happens before 7/31. Still fun, though.

I'd be strongly in favor of Clemens being the primary 1B for this roster based on what we've seen so far if I thought this roster was going to stay the same. I'm not thrilled with Clemens' batting average or seeming inability to take a walk, but maybe that could develop over time. Let's face it, Ty France is exactly the same player for us that the Mariners cut because he wasn't good enough. He's just not a good enough hitter to be a starting MLB 1B and it doesn't really bring anything else to the table to keep him around as a bench bat. I'm solidly in the camp of let's play Clemens as the strong side of a 1B platoon and I'd be interested in trying Sabato or even Miranda as the weak side IF this roster stays the same. There is one fly in this ointment though; this roster isn't going to stay the same, or at least shouldn't, because we will need a spot to play Keaschall pretty much every day when he comes back next week or so. The obvious opening is at 1B and he has played there in the past in the minors. We are already over subscribed at 2B, corner OF, and 3B (if he can even play OF or 3B so soon after the TJ surgery), and we don't want him to be the everyday DH at age 22 on a team where we have several players that will need random half days off. Maybe the logjam opens up if Castro is traded but even then we can't play Keaschall in the infield unless we sit Brooks Lee and/or Royce Lewis. I frankly wouldn't be completely opposed to that short term given their hitting struggles but I think the better long-term play is to play Lee and Lewis at least five days a week for the rest of the season to see what we really have for next year. So in sum, I don't see Clemens' role changing until Keaschall has been given his opportunity. What I think should happen is France being traded or DFA'd to open a lineup spot for Keaschall, with Clemens still on the roster as a backup 1B/2B/LH DH playing two or three days a week, more if there's an injury. Oh, and while we are at it, can we please send Keirsey back to AAA and replace him with Martin? We know Keirsey can't hit MLB pitching. Martin was hardly great last year but he was better than Keirsey this year - 2024 Martin at .253/.318/.352 (.670) vs. 2025 Keirsey at .101/.139/.143 (.284). Martin is hitting .333/.438/.402 (.840) in AAA this year and deserves another shot. We don't need Keirsey's glove as long as we have Bader and we can always called Keirsey back up if Bader is traded so we have that backup CF that we seem to need. Martin runs just as well as Keirsey so the pinch runner issue is moot. This team needs improvement at the margins, the two moves outlined here could be at least part of that improvement.

This. Duran and Jax have 2 years of control after 2025. Now is not the time to trade them for prospects unless you believe the team cannot contend this year AND next year. I don't believe the FO thinks that and I don't believe either will be traded. The smarter move is to play out this year and the first half of next year with them in the bullpen. If we aren't contenders, the time to trade them is next deadline where they will get almost as good a prospect return as they would now, maybe equally as good. The one trade that would potentially make sense to me is a trade for a controllable MLB or on the verge of MLB bat, particularly a Catcher or athletic OF. A trade for a Daulton Rushing type plus a couple of solid prospects might make sense or a 3 way trade where we give up Jax plus a good prospect to a contender, a third team give us a controllable MLB bat, and that team gets prospects from the contender. Maybe something where the Marlins give us Kyle Stowers or the Rockies give us Hunter Goodwin. I just don't think any of that is going to happen. I know I'm flogging a dead horse but the players to trade for prospects are the expiring contracts - Castro, Paddack, Bader, and Coulombe (France, Vasquez, and Clemens have little to no trade value). Jax and Duran should be kept until at least this time next year, but if you trade them, only trade them for a controllable MLB bat, not for prospects.

You got it right in terms of probabilities. The most likely result is little if any movement at the deadline. I actually think trading Paddack is the most likely move, particularly if Ober is feeling better. Maybe Castro gets traded, maybe France released, but that's about it. No trades of any other pitching and absolutely no trade of Duran, Jax, or Ryan. This is actually a logical way of operating, particularly if you're talking to Castro and Bader about re-signing in the offseason and think you can get that done. Most importantly, this is the best awy to operate if you're selling the team and want it to look as good as possible for the sale. You don't sell your house while re-doing the foundation or gutting the interior, you do that first and then you sell your house. I still think my view above is the way to go. Don't let your expiring assets just walk at the end of the year, get something for them or re-sign them so they aren't expiring assets. The opportunity cost of not trading a Castro, Paddack, or Bader and then not re-signing them is not worth the chances of this team making the playoffs and actually contending.

Agree with the concept except I think Keaschall plays 1B. There's nowhere else to play him with the guys we have unless either Lewis or Lee goes to the bench. I would put in Keaschall for France and Martin or Julien for Keirsey depending on whether you want a RH hitting corner OF/5th OF, or another LH hitting 1B/2B. I would go with Martin, especially since he is tearing up AAA, but I could see either one as an add over Keirsey.

Here's an optimistic/realistic slant on these numbers. The Twins are 47-49 with 2 of the top 3 starters hurt, 3 of the top 6 with the #1 out for a prolonged period, and 3 of the supposed top 4 hitters underperforming. You can squint and see the possible pitching improvement with Zebby coming back, SWR markedly improved, Festa getting better, Ober hopefully healing, and Paddack hopefully gone soon or in the bullpen. You can see enough pitching to be competitive. The secondary hitting is solid, Buxton is a stud, an Keaschall coming back will really help if his first 7 games weren't a mirage. Still, that's not enough to contend. It's pretty clear what has to happen for the Twins to contend - the three hitters underperforming have to hit. Correa, Lewis, and Wallner are the key to the second half of the season. If they hit, we could make a run. If they don't, mediocrity is the best we can hope for if the pitching keeps us at or slightly over .500. SO, the good news is that if those 3 hit well, or even 2 of them well and one average, we could contend. The bads news is anything less than that probably isn't enough. Simple as that.

You're right that a lot depends on Lewis and CC and that the unwillingness to move France off of an every day role at 1B is bizarre. I am encouraged that Lewis is now hitting again and he's going to play every day unless he gets hurt or falls off the table at the plate. I'm hoping that the idea is to move France once Keaschall is ready to play. Here's how you get the younger guys some playing time assuming one or all of Castro, Bader and Paddack are traded. Most importantly, France is either traded, benched, or released and Keaschall plays 1B for the rest of the year at least 4 days a week unless he craters at the plate. he did play some 1B in AA ball. If we trade Castro and trade or release France, Julien also comes up and plays a part time 1B, part time DH, occasional 2B role. Lee plays 2B most days, with Lewis at 3B and CC at SS. Clemens is a back up 2B/1B unless replaced by Sabato, Eeles or Prato, the latter only because they can play SS or 3B and I'm not sure Keaschall is recovered from the TJ surgery enough to be a fill-in on the left side of the infield. Lee plays 3B or SS when CC or Lewis sit or DH. So effectively Keaschall for France and Julien for Castro with the assumed return for Castro being a solid prospect not on the 40 man. In the OF, there is no real room for more than one unless Bader is traded and you trade him unless he is re-signed or will be in the offseason. Regardless of whether he stays, demote Kiersey for Martin. Bader is the backup CF so we don't need Kiersey's glove and Martin at least has a chance at the plate where Kiersey has none, almost as much speed, and can play 2B in a pinch. If Bader goes, call up Emma and play him 3-4 days a week, 1-2 in CF to spell Buxton, and 1-2 in RF when Wallner is the DH. Wallner is otherwise the regular RF. Larnach plays LF in a platoon with Martin. Yes that does hurt the OF defense so I hope Bader is re-signed but don't keep him and watch him walk for nothing at year end. Larnach sits against most LH pitching but Wallner plays. So essentially Martin for Kiersey and Emma for Bader. Why not Emma for Kiersey? I wouldn't bring up Emma until there's a path to play him at least 3-4 days a week. I'm less worried about Martin getting regular playing time since he's a RH hitter and not as good a prospect. In the bullpen, Ohl for Adams, and Funderburk for Misiewicz. For the rotation, Morris and Raya stay in AAA for the rest of the year unless injury requires another starter after Matthews and Lopez are back.

I hear your argument; I just don't agree but I think our differences are ones of degree. We may have different thoughts on the team's timeline. While I don't think the Twins have enough to contend this year, I do think they may in 2026 and 2027. I think the pitching side is good enough as is if everyone stays healthy, recognizing that the chances of complete pitching health is essentially zero, I think they're basically one starter and two relievers away from both having enough pitching to truly contend and being able to withstand a "normal" amount of injuries (even the Dodgers can't withstand a true glut of injuries as we're finding out). I think it's very possible that those pitchers are in the system now with Morris, Ohl, Lewis, and the rapidly improving Raya at AAA, and Paredes, Klein, CJ Culpepper, and Prielipp in AA. I'm against taking away from the area of the team where we might be good enough to contend next year. I do agree that the lineup isn't good enough. The 3 former players who broadcasted the Cubs games were right; this lineup isn't good enough unless Buxton. Correa, Lewis, and Wallner are all going strong and I would add that at least one of Larnach, Lee, and Keaschall have to also be an above-average hitter before we have barely enough. It's really 2 of the latter and I would add Castro IF he's staying beyond 2025 (I don't think he is). . My approach isn't to trade pitching now at the deadline to get bats, I would be to take the rest of this season to find out what we really have. So I would trade Castro and Bader unless you are/think you can re-sign them; they have Fangraphs 35+ to 45 type talent value coming back. I would trade Paddack; he may have some value if you attach a lottery ticket A ball guy with upside. I would give away France for a lottery ticket. No one will give you anything for Clemens so he's either a DFA or the 26th man. Strangely, I think we have to keep Vasquez because we don't have anyone else unless you believe in Cardenas and he does have some defensive/handling pitching staff value. How do we find out what we have? Play some guys at the MLB level. Keaschall plays every day when he comes back. Wallner plays against LH pitching (I think the ship has sailed on Larnach being able to hit LH pitching). Lee plays 5 days a week. Call up Julien and give him some run. Remember, Julien actually had an .840 OPS in 2023 before falling off the table in 2024. He's hitting in AAA so either trade him or give him a one last shot at 1B, maybe in a platoon/time share with Sabato. Emma and Martin come up to be the 4th and 5th OFs if you trade Castro and Bader and they actually play 3-4 days a week, more if (when) we fall out of the race. Are Jenkins and/or K Culpepper ready for a cup of coffee? Maybe so. How about giving Prielipp, Ohl, or Paredes a shot in the bullpen? Windows of contention in sports are fickle. I actually think the Twins could be in one in 2026 and 2027, but not if they trade Lopez or Ryan. Use the rest of this year to see if we can augment the roster internally and backfill with prospects from trading vets on expiring contracts. Keep the pitching. Then make some decisions in the offseason. New ownership may pony up for Ryan in the offseason. After all, a boy can dream . . .

I probably overrate Ryan's value, but I don't think I overrate his value to the Twins. IF we want to compete in the next couple of years we need Ryan and Lopez to be a high end one-two punch at the front of the rotation. While I don't want to hold onto players this year so we can win 83 games instead of 78, I'm not ready for a complete tear down and rebuild. I think trading Ryan is a step we should only take as part of a complete rebuild. I think having him along with Lopez at the front of the rotation is a crucial element for the Twins to compete in 2026 or 2027.

Trading Ryan is a very, very bad idea unless the goal is a complete tear down and rebuild. Moreover, the suggested returns are very light with the possible exception of Duran from Boston and even he isn't enough on his own. Finally, even if you were doing a complete rebuild. why wouldn't you wait until the off season after playing your younger guys to see what you have? Let's start at the beginning. What's the the most valuable trade asset in baseball? Cost controlled quality starting pitching. Ryan is more than that, he's a cost controlled #2 or even #1 starter. The only guy with more trade value in the American League is Tarik Skubal and he's only controllable through 2026. Garett Crochet's control years ran out this year and he starts a 6 year, $170m contract in 2026. Conversely, Ryan will make less than $20 total in 2026 and 2027, maybe even less than $15m. Everybody wants Ryan. Prospects are not enough for Ryan, no matter how good and "can't miss" they are. His value is an established good cost controlled MLB hitter with a high ceiling like Duran AND a "can't miss" prospect like Lombard or Tong. No one is going to give us that. I'm not sure anyone even has that on the same team. Anything less is trading for less value. Why on earth would you do that? I understand writers have to get eyeballs on baseball closing in on the trade deadline. This kind of speculation by Morosi is just that - clickbait. There is no good reason for the Twins to do any of those deals.

I agree for the most part, except I would like to see them try to keep Bader. We need a solid 4th OF badly and I don't see anyone in the minors who can play CF. I just don't know that he'll take 4th OF money with so many teams out there looking for CFers. I'm getting there with trading Larnach and I do think he would have some value to a team like SF, Tampa, and particularly SD. You gotta have some longer term vision and some hope that guys at AAA aren't finished products and can improve. We aren't going to play a lot of these guys next year because they will be gone. Let's look for guys we can and will play.