AlwaysinModeration

Not sure, exactly, but I seem to feel more optimistic about the four guys behind him on this list: Rooker, Enlow, Badoo and Graterol.

What if the Twins told the Rays “We’d like to offer you, in exchange for Archer, a package of Kepler and your choice of 3 of these 4 players: Graterol, Badoo, Enlow and Rooker.” Would you do that?

Maybe I missed this, but how did the Twins acquire Graterol?

I hope he makes the club. He (and his pregnant wife and son) spent two hours a couple years back with a group of Little Leaguers in DC (my kids included; my ten year old is still one of his biggest fans) helping with drills and doing a Q&A, signing balls and taking part in a kids relay race. Really good guy. Plus, he hit the game winning homer off the Twins in an epic 16 inning game, if I recall correctly.

Hughes made a brilliant move by not asking to go back out for another inning in his last start (which would have triggered a incentive bonus). TR was so impressed by his selflessness he gave him an extra $48 million.

With Darvish signing a contract at $21million a year, instead of the $26.7 million a year he was predicted by MLB Trade Rumors, it seems like the players are relenting. Frazier signed for 2/17, considerably less than envisioned. The owners are winning at resetting the market prices. How did they manage to reset the prices all at once?

This was over as soon as the Cubs signed Gimenez, apparently.

That perhaps is because that offer would have needed to include playing in a different city?

Darvish signs with the Cubs, 6 years, $126 million. Damn.

There have been many arguments persuasively made on here (and elsewhere) that it is just a confluence of events that led to this result. I don’t know, I am still very suspicious. How do you go from the usual most signed by February to almost none signed in February. If the market were undergoing a natural resetting of prices, I would have envisioned a gradual change, not a sudden one. And why are the relievers all pretty much gone? It seems just...very convenient.

I re-read my initial post, and realize I made some typos; "dozens offer agents" was supposed to be "dozens of free agents" and several major players "out" was supposed to mean several big spending teams out due to the luxury tax. But people got my drift. It would be fascinating to find out whether the Twins, who have been so vocal in their interest in Darvish, have at minimum given him a sense of what they are willing to do in terms of years and dollars. Obviously if they have, it isn't enough. Is their stance, let's say, 5/100? If prices do come down, it seems like a good opportunity to go up in price and he might sign. But that's how a normal market might function (even if it is a market with downward price pressures). This doesn't seem like a normal market. It doesn't seem like there is ANY negotiating going on. That's what is so strange about this, and what makes me so suspicious that there is some sort of collusion going on, in which teams are somehow agreeing not to make any offer over $100mm, for example. In a public policy class years ago, the professor described how the airline industry was colluding on price changes. It was discovered that the airlines were changing the prices of certain flights six months out, and that was an indicator that alerted all airlines to make a certain change in their prices. I can't remember how it worked, exactly, but it was fairly sophisticated, and it was excellent sleuthing (by the feds) to figure out what they were doing.

I have to admit, I am perplexed. What seemed like a slow off-season has morphed into a non-off-season. There are dozens offers agents, including most of the top starters and position players, without a team, a week into February. Now there are the players union and agents coming forward to cry foul and a battle of press releases over who is to blame. Obviously, teams aren’t offering what they did in the past. They seem to be offering fewer years than expected, or considerably less annual salary than expected. Is there collusion? I think there must be. But having several majors players “out” seems to be a factor too. What is the end game here? Are players going to relent and take the cheaper contracts? Are Darvish and JD going to sign $100mm+ contracts and a flurry of signings going to follow? Is spring training simply going to start with no one signed? If so, still...how does it end? Does this end in a strike (knowing the CBA last for another few years)? It’s so hard to tell what is really going on behind the scenes. It was always my impression that free agency worked like a cascade after the top pitcher signed, as teams “in the mix” don’t want to sign a lesser pitcher if they are still hoping to land their top target. But I also thought that there was usually a time limit imposed at some step of the way by someone in the negotiation: “Here is our best offer, let us know by X or we are moving on.” Or “We’ve got a good offer on the table now, you have until X to make a better one.” Why isn’t that happening this year? The one thing I do know, is that the Twins are in a better situation to land the top free agent starter than they ever have been. They have the perfect storm of payroll space, and lack of major competition, and, seemingly, downward pressure on salaries. What do others think about the current free agent situation, and how do you think it ends?

Question for spycake, who I agree is killing it on these threads: Why are you using 0.8 decline per year? I thought that the typical figure to use when calculating decline was 0.5 per year? For ewen21, you argue that the Twins shouldn’t sign Darvish because he will decline in years 32-36 (which is really 31-35, but whatever). That decline is always factored in to free agent contracts. If Darvish is a 4WAR pitcher now, he is assumed to produce 4+3.5+3+2.5+2 over the next five years, or 15 WAR. I guess the current value per WAR is 10/per, meaning 5/150 would be the going rate for a contract for a player of Darvish’ caliber. It’s fine to say you don’t think the Twins should sign a top free agent, but it’s widely acknowledged and accepted that they will decline during their contract. He’s be an upgrade for the Twins rotation, though, during their window of competitiveness, so I’m in favor of them signing him. I’m still sticking with 5/125. Oh, and by the way, Ervin Santana’s posted an ERA+ of 127 in his years 32-34 with the Twins, while his career average is 103. In the last three years, the Twins have had three Sp seasons over 2WAR; Gibson in 2015 and Ervin the last two years. If Yu even posts 3WAR for next 2-3 years, which he clearly has the potential to top, he represents a significant upgrade to the rotation.

I think it’s debatable. Would more wives move the peak years older?

What are the chances the Twins won’t go over 23 million a year (or 163 million total) in their offer to Darvish?

This is just a wild theory, but is it possible there was an unwritten agreement among owners not to sign any free agent starters or position players before the Hall of Fame vote? The goal would be to drive down prices, presumably.

Truly, you have a dizzying intellect.

The Vikings in the NFC Championship game?

Nice idea, but the delivery was lacking.

Which happens first, Yu signs or the government reopens?

I see you added Reed to your calculations. Park requested out of his contract, so the Twins will not be paying him this year or next, according to this article: http://mengnews.joins.com/view.aspx?aid=3041292 Santana’s 2019 option vests with 400 IP between 2017 and 2018, including 200 in 2018. He pitched 211 in 2017, so if he gets 200 imthis year, it will vest. Since he turned 30, he has hit 200IP two out of five years. I’m guessing it’s 50-50 at best that option vests.

I really didn’t see that coming.

Cole to the Astros for Musgrove, Moran and a couple of other guys. What would the equivalent have been for the Twins? I’m thinking Trevor May, Alex Kiriloff, plus maybe Granite and Jorge, or something like that?

I keep getting a different total than you for those six.

This is a big surprise. It must have just fallen in their lap, with the Midwest thing. Is he married/wife from Midwest? Wade Davis signed for 17mm....per year! To get Addison Reed for two years for less than that total was brilliant. I don’t think the Twins are out on Darvish. This is a huge opportunity to land the top FA pitcher. No other big spenders are playin this year, and the Twins have a window of competitiveness opening up now, with lots of payroll wiggle room, especially starting in 2019. Add in the Levine connection, too. Honestly, I think the Twins are the favorite to sign Darvish, not out. I can’t believe I’m saying that, but I think it’s true.