Parker Hageman

Let's just summarize all the (known) advice Jose Berrios has been given: 1. Ervin Santana told him he was "opening up his front hip too fast, spinning away from the target". http://www.twincities.com/2016/08/15/twins-using-village-to-help-struggling-jose-berrios/ 2. Neil Allen told him he needs to pick up the tempo. http://www.startribune.com/twins-ask-jose-berrios-to-pick-up-the-pace-on-the-mound/390656141/ 3. In the same article, Allen also told Berrios that wrapping the ball behind his back was hurting his command. 4. Bert Blyleven had told him to work on his release point. 5. And, finally, Blyleven said that they were working on pushing off that pitching rubber. That's a lot of things for a pitcher to take with him into a start.

Overall point: "pushing off the rubber" -- as he was describing it during the broadcast -- does little for power or command. I know (hope?) Bert means something different that what he explained on TV when he and/or Neil Allen were working with Berrios in the bullpen.

On Friday night in Kansas City Bert Blyleven described to viewers what he and the Twins’ coaching staff were working on with Jose Berrios in order to straighten him out. “Right...there!” Blyleven exclaimed as Berrios delivered a fastball for strike three to the Royals’ Jarrod Dyson in the bottom of the first. It was a beautiful pitch that was beautifully executed by the rookie. “EXPLODE towards home plate,” he emphasized. As the replay of the strikeout rolled, Blyleven further elaborated by saying “once you get to that balance point, utilize the rubber and explode towards home plate” and that Berrios needed to “push off” the rubber more. And just like that, Jose Berrios was fixed forever, right?For those who are able to see the embedded Twitter post, you can watch and listen to the entire conversation here: Berrios, of course, came unglued shortly thereafter. He issued four walks and allowed four runs to score during his four innings of work. He either stopped exploding towards home plate or that wasn’t the pitching tip that was going to remedy what ails him. Now, regular Twins broadcast viewers will recall this pitching advice. This, along with a “good downward plane”, have become common pitching jargon slung around for years. Scott Baker never figured out how to get a good downward plane. It has come to the point where if any Twins pitcher is struggling, the inevitable cure from the broadcast booth would likely be one of those two remedies. To be clear, I’m not suggesting that Bert Blyleven doesn’t know pitching. Bert Blyleven has forgotten more about pitching in the time it took you to get to this point in the sentence than most people hope to learn in a lifetime. However, when it comes to utilizing the rubber by pushing off, as Blyleven suggests, science might not agree with the Dutchman’s assessment. According to Kyle Boddy and his Driveline Baseball think tank in Seattle, Washington has studied the “push off” phenomenon and his preliminary research shows that the back leg push off is not the velocity-inducing catalyst that people think it is. Boddy offered the Mariners’ Arquimedes Caminero as a good example of how velocity isn’t generated off the back leg. When he gets to his balance point and goes forward, his foot disengages the rubber area but doesn’t push off. http://i.imgur.com/cxLJzHG.gif When it comes this particular pitching cue, Blyleven is incorrect. By Boddy’s account, coming from someone who has dedicated his career to understanding the science behind it, pushing from the back leg has little influence on velocity or command. What we hear from players, former players and coaches is a disconnect between what they FELT and what is actually happening during the process. To Blyleven, the act of driving off the back leg may have felt like pushing off the pitching rubber but that is not what actually transpires in the kinetic chain. Berrios’ problem does not stem from not utilizing the pitching rubber enough. In the case of Berrios’ development, as Mike Berardino of the St Paul Pioneer Press recently phrased it, the Twins are using a “village” approach. In addition to Blyleven, Berrios has been receiving advice from Neil Allen, Eddie Guardado and teammate Ervin Santana. While the guidance from multiple experienced baseball men can be beneficial, there is also the danger that a young prospect has too many messages being communicated -- especially when some of the advice, in spite of the well-meaning nature, is wrong. There is no denying that Berrios needs refinement. When it comes to his fastball command, he has found the zone just 46% of the time -- compared to the 53.5% major league average. In fact, of those who have thrown 350 or more fastballs, Berrios’ in-zone rate is the fifth lowest. Beyond that, Berrios also struggles to command his fastball in the zone, missing the glove by a wide margin and winding up in a hitter’s whump-em zone. Download attachment: Berrios KC.PNG That being said, in spite of the poor command, Berrios’ movement and velocity on his fastball has also incited plenty of swing-and-misses making it a very good potential weapon. Right now his fastball gets a swinging strike 9.3% of the time it’s thrown -- well above the league average of 7.5%. By comparison, the hard-throwing Noah Syndergaard gets a swinging strike 9.5% of the time. That would be good over the course of an entire season. That would be really good. http://i.imgur.com/VH4xtUF.gif Guardado told me something in spring training that resonated about his instructional approach and the psyche of pitchers in general. “I don’t like to go in there and fix a damn engine when you only need to change a spark plug,” he said. “That’s what I try to do. Keep it simple, keep it easy. Not too much to think about because it is already tough to go out there and the pressure out there trying to compete.” There is a lot of pressure. Especially for someone who has been deemed the team’s top pitching prospect and one -- through various social media channels -- who has also set a lofty expectation for himself as well. Berrios has talent, skill and dedication like few others have ever had or ever wish to have and he has carved up hitters in the minor leagues. It is only a matter of time before it all clicks. Click here to view the article

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/762718005440589824

Jon Heyman is reporting the Twins and Red Sox have an agreement on Fernando Abad.

Before we get too excited about this, let's keep in mind that pitch f/x hasn't always categorized fastballs accurately. For instance, in 2014 they said he threw 17% 4-seam but he was almost exclusively sinkers. When you look at the game charts, the ones labeled "4-seamers" moved the same as the ones labeled "sinkers". The impressive part is that he is throwing very few secondary pitches in the mix. He's essentially a one-pitch pitcher. Only Kenley Jansen, Zach Britton and Sean Doolittle have leaned on one-pitch more than Kintzler. **Here's another thing: Britton probably has the best sinking fastball in the game right now. He grips it like a 2-seamer with a slight cross grip. Kintzler, who they categorize as a "sinker", holds his in almost the exact same way. They both have very similar vertical movement (Britton's is thrown much harder) resulting in sink but one is a sinker and the other is a 2-seamer. Shruggy guy.

HEY! Speaking of defensive metrics, here is Rob Antony's take on them from our 2010 interview:

Being the one who conducted the original interview with Rob Antony in 2010, I probably should clarify several things. During a spring training visit in 2010, I attempted to get time with Terry Ryan. I was told that he was unavailable (like he typically is outside of his pre-game huddles) and that Antony would gladly answer my questions. My point was to gauge what the level of knowledge was for baseball analytics inside the organization. In addition to some current event questions, I added a few questions from the book Behind-The Scenes Baseball (the Doug Decatur book discussed what life was like as an analytics “advisor” to several teams in 1984) which would be telling of the mindset of a team’s GM. Those questions were something like, does he prefer RBI to Slugging Percentage? Does the GM know basic advanced stats (I used FIP and BABIP as mine)? As you can see in the link above, Antony shaded toward the old-school mindset, not very familiar with what were, at the time, advanced stat concepts. To be sure, Antony readily acknowledged this short-coming as well, remarking that the organization definitely slanted old-school and mentioned that they had just hired a guy to focus solely on analytics (Jack Goin). Shortly after publishing the interview, Aaron Gleeman shared it on his site and it gained national steam. I was told that there was definite unhappiness about the interview and how it portrayed Antony. In fact, I’m told that the Twins reached out to Gleeman to have him sit down with Antony so he could clarify his position on analytics. Later on, several members within the organization told me later that the interview prompted Antony to educate himself on a lot of those stats and concepts. I haven’t had the opportunity to sit down one-on-one with Antony since the interview was published. I would love to sit down with him again and revisit some of those topics but let me make this much clear: I have been around him during his time leading the pre-game media huddles, I’ve read all of the TwinkieTown interviews with him over the past several years -- he’s a very sharp guy. Would he make a good GM? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Frankly, I don't know who to believe. The Twins' track record for identifying injuries is not stellar. And players hide injuries all the time. Dozier said he wasn't hurt in the second half of last year but was playing through a torn labrum in his hip. Phil Hughes said he wasn't hurt and was playing through thoracic outlet syndrome in his shoulder. Glen Perkins said no one should worry about his velocity and he had a torn labrum in his shoulder. Chris Colabello told no one about his thumb injury. And so on and so on and so on. I can certainly see a scenario where Park hurt his wrist in camp, had it feel better for a stretch and then tweaked it. Multiple reasons why he wouldn't say anything and try to keep playing through it. Not true. In hitter's counts during his hot stretch he saw fastballs 63% of the time and during the slump he saw them 59% of the time. This isn't enough of a variation. He actually saw MORE fastballs (57% to 54%) on the first pitch during his slump. Teams were not pitching him backwards overall during the bulk of his slump. What they did do, as indicated in the heat map GIF in the article, was avoid the middle of the plate -- particularly in hitter's counts....I will add, however, that teams rarely threw him fastballs AT ALL during his last 8 games before being demoted. He was already taking water at this point -- I just think that might have been what opened the floodgates.

When the Twins signed Byung Ho Park this offseason, they knew they were getting a strikeout-prone slugger who could regularly destroy baseballs. For about a month and half, he lived up to that billing. Midway through May that changed. He turned into a strikeout prone player who gently hit baseballs. Multiple explanations for this massive slump were offered. Teams finally adjusted to him. He focused too much on hard fastballs. His confidence was gone. As such, the Twins sent him to Rochester to regain his swing. If reports are accurate, however, it would appear that, in addition to the issues above, Park has also been playing through an injury.On May 13, in the opener of a three game series in Cleveland, Park had his first multi-homer game of his career and giving him nine on the season, pulling him within three of the AL pace-setting in Robinson Cano. He was tops among rookies in the junior circuit in home runs, and his overall numbers, while not otherworldly, were highly respectable. When the sun set on the Buckeye State that night, Park carried a .245/.324/.582 batting line. He had the shine of a legit Rookie Of The Year candidate. But just as meteoric as his rise, Park fell quickly back to earth. Over the next 33 games, he posted a measly batting line of .145/.233/.265. His exit velocity average dropped from 90.9 MPH to 87.2. His average fly ball distance went from 250 to 208. As a predominant fly ball hitter, these metrics were troubling. Pitchers confounded him as he reportedly obsessed with higher velocity. His confidence waned. Something was amiss. Park’s Korean Baseball Organization-honed upper-cut swing path has been perfect for mashing breaking balls: Of his 12 home runs, 8 were on curves or sliders. Only Colorado’s Trevor Story (10) and the Dodgers’ Corey Seager (9) hit more on those types of pitches. There was no doubt that Park could manhandle mistakes but he has been carved up when the sequences included fastballs with velocity 93 miles per hour or higher. In fact, Park’s struggles are so prolific, his .089 batting average against fastballs 93 MPH or higher was the lowest in baseball… with the exception of the Phillies’ Ryan Howard (.042). Was it truly the competition and the velocity in the major leagues that bested Park? On one hand, prior to his signing, scouts did express concern over his ability to catch up to inside fastballs. On the other, hitters who graduated from the Korean league have done quite well against these exact same type of fastballs. Pittsburgh’s Jung Ho Kang, Baltimore’s Hyun Soo Kim and Seattle Dae Ho Lee all had averages over .300 on fastballs over 93 MPH this year. Not being able to face elite velocity while developing in Korea certainly did not hinder their careers. Teams also adjusted to Park. While over a month of play seems like a crazytown amount of time to continue to throw middle-middle pitches to a guy who would obliterate them, it really took opponents that long to actively avoid that location. In short, he saw fewer mistakes. Download attachment: output_aTtQFn.gif Another possible factor for Park’s dismal performance emerged during last night’s Rochester Red Wings’ broadcast. As Seth Stohs pointed out on Twitter last night, the Lehigh Valley IronPigs announcers, noting Park’s absence from the game, said that Park had been struggling with a hand injury -- one that had lingered since spring training -- and was unable to maintain proper contact with the bat. Per the broadcast: On Friday Brad Steil, the Twins' Director of Minor League Operations, dismissed the broadcast banter, writing in an email to Twins Daily that there is nothing accurate about that report. "Park does not have a hand injury and he didn't have a hand injury (or anything else) in spring training," Steil noted. "He does have some wrist soreness at the moment, but it’s not something that prevents him from playing. Players deal with bumps, bruises, soreness, and general fatigue throughout the course of a six month season, and we will occasionally give them days off to help manage those things." That kind of information seems noteworthy. It would appear, however, that there were no reports of Park’s condition mentioned anywhere dating back to spring training. To be sure, this would not be the first time a player has downplayed an injury in an effort to keep playing. While rest would be in their best interest, competitiveness and machismo drives them to play night after night in spite of falling numbers and aching body parts. In baseball, communicating with the coaching and medical staff the extent of an injury can be complicated and certainly a language barrier (even with a translator) can also add a wrinkle. Even so, if the team had knowledge of a hand injury dating back to spring training, the subsequent poor performance should have necessitated some time off rather than continuing to insert him into the lineup, further damaging his confidence. Park’s slump could be both an issue of confidence and a nagging injury. Teams did adjust and Park seemingly did not adjust with them. At the same time, the same balls he was hitting hard into play simply were not hit with as much vigor as of late and a hand injury would be one viable reason for that. Whether you view the hand injury as an excuse rather than an explanation for his performance is inconsequential. What does matter is his ability to hit again. Regardless of the current circumstance, Park needs confidence and rest and Rochester is an appropriate setting for both. Click here to view the article

In the middle of a roster shuffle which includes the recall of outfielder Eddie Rosario, the Minnesota Twins announced today that they have designated reliever Kevin Jepsen for assignment.Jepsen played a vital bullpen role for the Twins in 2015 after being acquired at the trade deadline. After closer Glen Perkins struggled in the second-half of the season, Jepsen successfully converted 10 saves in 11 opportunities while posting a minuscule 1.61 ERA and limiting opponents to a .176 average against in 28 innings. 2016, however, was an unmitigated disaster for the 31-year-old and one of the main reasons the Twins' bullpen has been such a disaster. When the Twins signed him to a one-year, $5.3 million deal, they figured they had a solid back-end arm to support Perkins. Given the closer's role once again following another injury to Perkins, Jepsen blew four saves in 11 opportunities and was demoted to a set-up spot. He allowed a career-high seven home runs as teams posted a 972 OPS. Download attachment: Jepsen.PNG For Jepsen, it was the loss of his secondary pitches that spoiled his season. He lost the feel for his changeup and seemed to lack the same precision with his curveball. Without these pitches, hitters homed in on his fastball, hitting .323 with six home runs on the pitch. The prior season hitters held a .173 average on the fastball with just one extra base hit. Trevor May, who has completed his rehab assignment and is at least a day or two away from being reinstated, has reportedly shortened his stride in order to alleviate pressure on his lower back. Click here to view the article

I'd argue that Buxton has had development issues to some extent because he was listening too much. The reason he is just re-adding his leg kick this season is because of instruction at the lower levels. And I'll admit it is difficult to turn down advice at that age and level but sometimes it is for the best. Every player needs to own their swing. They should certainly take advice but, in the end, it's their careers on the line. As Brunansky explained to me this spring, sometimes you got to get to the point where Dozier was at last year in order to listen to some of the advice as well.

Right, and I think you share the concerns that we have heard on broadcasts and in print over the last few seasons. Dozier's batting average will always suffer because of it. I think there are some members of the staff who feel that because Dozier plays a position and hits in a particular spot in the order, he needs to hit like it. Dozier, hard headed, enjoyed being a power hitter. I think there was definitely some tug-o-war about his approach and some of the trying to "fix it" actually led to more issues. If he feels more comfortable being the power hitter-type (and it's working), they need to just let him be.

It certainly hurts his average and his standing with some within the organization but it depends on what you value. As I pointed out last year, some of the second-half slump was due to pitchers changing what they were throwing to him and when they were throwing it. http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/for-brian-dozier-its-deja-vu-all-over-again-r4179 Dozier is an admitted fastball hunter. I believe he was thrown wrinkles more often in counts he had previously seen more fastballs.

Brian Dozier is predisposed to prolonged slumps. Over the past two years those stretches have come in the latter portion. In 2014 Dozier had a sharp decline in home runs, hitting just five after jacking 18 pre-All Star Break. Masking the power outage was the fact he maintained a solid on-base presence. Last season, however, not only did the home runs evaporate but the batting average and on-base abilities did too, leading to a sad .210/.280/.359 batting line as the Twins’ slim playoff chances slipped away. The good news is that this season it seems that the Twins’ second baseman has been kind enough to hold his annual slump in the first-half, getting the depressing numbers out of the way at the beginning of the year.Dozier, as anyone who has followed the team even for a second could tell you, has transformed into a dead-pull hitter. Last year he led baseball in pull-happy tendencies by taking 62 percent of all batted balls to the left side. In fact, dating back to 2009, it was the pull-happiest season on record. Think about that: Over the past seven years, no one has been as much of a yanker as middle infielder Brian Dozier. “Why don’t I hit more balls to right?” Dozier asked prior to the 2015 season in the midst of a conversation about his hitting success. “Why do you want to go out to right when the shortest distance is to left?” With that, Dozier began a season in which he hammered out a career-high 28 home runs...but also fell off the face of the earth in the season’s dog days. Even as others in the organization have criticized it, he is unabashedly unapologetic about his approach. Not everyone was satisfied with his mindset at the plate. Manager Paul Molitor had discussed the topic with KSTP’s Darren Wolfson this spring, raising questions about how the team feels about Dozier’s offensive identity. “It’s kind of maybe caused a little confusion as where his ultimate value offensively is going to be,” Molitor said. “Do I sit back and try to hit more home runs? Do I still try to spray the ball around and be a good base runner and score runs?” From the Twins’ perspective, the second baseman/two-hitter isn’t suppose to pull the ball all the time. They see the position as someone who slaps a pitch the other way when there is a runner on first, moving that runner along even if it means recording an out at the plate. Dozier’s play was often viewed as selfish and the team’s announcers were quick to point it out as such. Like many others, Tom Brunansky watched as Dozier struggled with pitches on the outer half, hitting just .185 in the second-half last year when pitchers went away. This past spring training Brunansky shared what he felt was ailing Dozier’s swing and what the pair were doing to rectify it. At no point did he discuss using the entire field or going the other way. Simply put, Brunansky wanted to see Dozier drive the ball on the outer half into any part of the field. “On the middle-out pitch it’s like [the barrel] gets there and then it tries to finish really quick. We’ve talked about extension of the barrel through the zone a little bit more,” Brunansky said. “He’s always had great plate coverage, it’s just, on that pitch out there, he sees it, the barrel gets to it but it never finishes.” The two would have long discussions on hitting philosophy and Dozier would just smile or roll his eyes playfully when they talk of using the entire field would come up. He emphasized that the prolonged slump of 2015 opened Dozier’s eyes to the possibility of altering his swing. “He looks at me and laughs, and he looks at me and makes some comments,” Brunansky said about getting through to Dozier about modifying his swing. “But we have a relationship enough were we trust each other.” http://i.imgur.com/7yNVwrd.gif When the season started, Dozier faced a new challenge: a defensive shift. Teams moved their second baseman to the shortstop side of second base to combat Dozier’s pull-heavy tendencies and then would pepper the other side of the plate, hoping he would fall right into their trap. In 45 of his 106 April plate appearances, he came to the plate facing this alignment. Shift or no, Dozier did not hit: He batted .205 with the shift and he batted .214 without a shift. By May, Dozier and Brunansky had found a new problem that they felt needed correcting. Film study had revealed that Dozier had moved up too close to the plate, causing him to pass on some better pitches on the inner-half. "I didn't even know I was doing it, but I got into the habit of having my feet almost on the white line over the plate," Dozier told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. "Some of the pitches that were close to hitting me, I realized were actually middle-in or over the plate. So mentally, it got me in the habit of trying to cheat on inside pitches. And I was swinging at balls way off the plate that I thought were on the black. So it was totally different than last year." Download attachment: Doizer_Plate.png Even if it was mere inches in the batter’s box, cheating for pitches on the inner-half would cause him to overpull or miss the sweet spot of his bat on pitches inside that he would normally crush. Plus, it made the outer-half unhittable. Despite the attempted adjustments, by May 23rd Minnesota Twins’ All-Star second baseman was hitting under .200 and relegated to the bench. His offensive season was an unsightly mess and it opened the floodgates for mounds of criticism what became viewed as a stubborn approach. With each plate appearance, more condemnation of his methods. “It’s pull mode, (swinging) out of the zone and trying to do too much,” Ryan told reporters. “It’s basically everything we saw in August and September. They bunch you on the left side. He’s hitting pop-ups in the air, and they aren’t going over the fence like they were last year. That means he’s probably not getting a pitch he can handle.” At the deepest, darkest depths of his season, Dozier turned a corner. On May 25th he was back in the starting lineup and tagged a hanging curve from Kansas City’s Dillon Gee into the second deck at Target Field. He followed that the next day with a deep double at Safeco off of Felix Hernandez. That kicked off ten consecutive games of reaching base and Dozier’s average began to rise. Download attachment: output_r7sZUK.gif Dozier, however, didn’t pull out of his funk by going the other way. He was able to find success by pulling the ball MORE. Download attachment: Dozier.PNG Certainly Dozier saw success when he did drive a few pitches for extra base hits into the right-center gap. And he was gifted a double after flaring a ball down the right field line that could have been caught had the outfield not been shifted around to protect against his pull tendencies. Several of those pitches were down-and-away that Dozier actually drove -- a sign that the work with Brunansky to keep the barrel in the zone longer was paying off. In short, Dozier is back to who he has been in the past. For the month of June, Dozier is hitting .333/.413/.580 while pulling the ball at a 63 percent clip. He has addressed the issue with his swing and it did not have to do with going the other way. The hand-wringing over his extreme pull tendencies needs to stop. Click here to view the article

My guess is that the shoulder fatigue has to do with his back injury from a year ago. Watching footage from 2014 vs 2015/2016, you see a lot less efforted rotation from Hughes now as opposed to when he was able to hump up to 94. If his back still isn't 100% or if he is avoiding exerting too much from the core, the shoulder is going to take the brunt of it.

Counterargument from a BTB post (based on a study from The Book on Baseball): I think I would like to get Mauer more plate appearances over the course of the season, which makes him better situated as the number two guy. I don't know if Miguel Sano would be the ideal three hitter based on the above listed scenario but I would rather get him more PAs as a three-hitter than use him as a clean-up guy. With Mauer-Sano hitting back-to-back, the Twins have two of their highest OBP guys in tandem and allowing for Plouffe (or Park or whoever) to drive them in (if Sano doesn't hit a blast). The bigger lineup issue, IMO, is not having a leadoff guy.

Once Plouffe is back, Molitor will likely go: 2. Mauer 3. Sano 4. Plouffe just like he used at the beginning of the year.

And that's the Twins' basic argument. They need someone else ahead of Mauer for him to drive in with his base hits and have someone behind him driving him in. They need others to step up.

While a good idea on paper, I honestly don't think Paul Molitor wants to move Mauer to the top.