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  1. While Buxton acknowledged he was seeing pitches and movement that he had never truly experienced in the minor leagues, he was not making any excuses for the results either. “I gotta sit in the strike zone,” he said about his tendency to chase pitches. “I mean, yeah, it's a big adjustment up here but you gotta make adjustments to pitchers too. It was a little tough transition for me to adjust early but later on in the season I started picking up a little more and I was starting to feel really good at the plate.” After striking out in nearly 40 percent of his plate appearances over his first 21 games, he was able to reduce the frequency to 25 percent over the last 25 games. He quit chasing as many pitches out of the zone and he was able to put the barrel on a few more. Buxton said that he felt that he was able to anticipate a bit better what pitchers were trying to do with him in his last month of the season. “I started figuring out a little bit of what they might be try to do to me in certain situations. When I went up there I just got ready to hit. I got ready to hit the fastball and if they threw a fastball in there I put a pretty good swing on it.” Going forward, however, Buxton wants to be aggressive earlier in the at-bat and avoid the dreaded two-strike counts. “It's hard to hit with two strikes, especially up here in the bigs,” he said. “So if they throw you a pitch you can handle or a pitch you want, that's the pitch the majority of the guys will jump on and do damage with. It's hard to hit with two strikes with the nasty breakers and change-ups and cutters and sinkers. It's too many pitches you try to rely when you just took a get-me-over curve ball or down the middle fastball.” In terms of his contact, the gory batted ball numbers paint a somber portrait of Buxton’s first season with the Twins. ESPN/TruMedia’s data said that Buxton posted a .054 well-hit average (compared to the MLB norm of .138) which was the fifth-lowest among all hitters with 90 or more plate appearances. Likewise, according to BaseballSavant.com, Buxton’s 2015 Exit Velocity average was 87.3 miles per hour. In a simple terms, a ball hit 87 miles per hour roughly translates to a .236 average with a paltry .282 slugging percentage last season. On the other hand, if he were able to increase the exit velocity to send more pitches back out at the 90-95 mile per hour range, he could be looking at a .290 average with a .400 slugging -- a slash line that would be very respectable for a 22-year-old center fielder. In order to generate more velocity off the bat, Buxton worked on incorporating a little leg kick into his swing. “I went into the offseason last year and picked up a little bit of a leg kick, not too big,” Buxton said of his subtle change. “I want to keep [the leg kick] where it's at -- not too big, not trying to being overpowering. Keep me back behind the ball. Keep my head still. It's more for me to get that edge to make contact a little bit more, try to hit the ball hard and more consistent.” https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/712332871860494336 With the new leg kick, Buxton is going back to his roots. Before he was drafted by the Twins he displayed an open stance with a leg kick but that was changed shortly after he entered the organization. “They changed me in rookie ball,” he says of the switch. “They closed me up and tried to slow down some of my movement a bit.” Buxton’s mechanics may remind some of Torii Hunter’s swing but Buxton quickly dispelled that notion by saying that Hunter did not influence his swing style -- only helped him with the mental side of the game. https://twitter.com/parkerhageman/status/606580057310679042 So far this spring he is satisfied with this changes in his swing. The hardest part, he says is gaining the right amount of at-bats to feel fully confident. “It's all about getting comfortable, especially if you have never had it before like I had,” he emphasized. “Just getting at-bats, get it comfortable, get to where you know when you need to start your load, where to finish your load, things like that. It's going good. I've gotten comfortable at the plate.” Byron Buxton is in the midst of the maturation process. In some capacity, all players go through this stage. Some do it quickly and some linger. Buxton has all the raw natural tools to be one of the game’s best two-way players. A rough introduction at the plate shouldn’t sidetrack that outcome.
  2. It has taken twelve years in the majors but Ervin Santana can finally add Opening Day Starter to his resume. With a Cheshire smile on his face, Santana says he took the news in stride. “It feels good,” Santana admitted but then quickly downplayed the significance of the assignment. “To me, it's great but I take it as another start and I just prepare for the day. Same game. Nothing changes. I just have that in my mind and go up there and perform.” The 2016 season will starting significantly differently for Santana after missing the first 80 games last year when he tested positive for PEDs. And this year he hopes to set the tone for the season in a more meaningful way: By picking up where he left off.Santana's track record has earned him the right to usher in the new season. When his suspension was up, he struggled to get up to speed, posting an ugly 6.05 ERA in his first 10 games. However from the end of August forward, no Twins starter had worked as deep into games and had as much success as Santana did over his last seven outings in 2015. In fact, in that time only Chicago’s Jake Arrieta (0.33 ERA) and Cleveland’s Cody Anderson (1.38 ERA) posted lower ERAs than Santana. Only Arrieta allowed fewer home runs per nine innings. Based on that, the Twins made the easy decision heading into spring training that -- barring any unforeseen circumstances -- Santana would be handed the pearl in Baltimore. “It was kind of conversations with [pitching coach] Neil [Allen] prior to spring training, beginning of spring training,” Paul Molitor said of the decision to set the rotation the way they did. “You know you have to set it up somehow, some way. You can always adjust early according to injuries or something that becomes apparent. How they're throwing the baseball. We kind of thought that order made sense at the beginning if everyone was healthy.” With Santana leading the rotation, Molitor said that he would be followed by Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes in Baltimore but refrained from announcing his fourth and fifth starters. Molitor mentioned the uncertainty surrounding Phil Hughes, who was coming off a “sub-par” season, as the reason why he was dropped to third in the rotation. Hughes has suffered from recurring issues with a disc in his lower back but said that since he received an epidural, the disc has been able to heal and has responded well this spring. The right-hander has been consistently sitting at 90-92 in his starts and has struck out nine over 11 innings in Grapefruit action. Ervin Santana will be the eighth different Opening Day starter for the Minnesota Twins since the 2006 season. Since then only Carl Pavano (2011, 2012) and Johan Santana (2005, 2006) have thrown in multiple Opening Days. Click here to view the article
  3. Santana's track record has earned him the right to usher in the new season. When his suspension was up, he struggled to get up to speed, posting an ugly 6.05 ERA in his first 10 games. However from the end of August forward, no Twins starter had worked as deep into games and had as much success as Santana did over his last seven outings in 2015. In fact, in that time only Chicago’s Jake Arrieta (0.33 ERA) and Cleveland’s Cody Anderson (1.38 ERA) posted lower ERAs than Santana. Only Arrieta allowed fewer home runs per nine innings. Based on that, the Twins made the easy decision heading into spring training that -- barring any unforeseen circumstances -- Santana would be handed the pearl in Baltimore. “It was kind of conversations with [pitching coach] Neil [Allen] prior to spring training, beginning of spring training,” Paul Molitor said of the decision to set the rotation the way they did. “You know you have to set it up somehow, some way. You can always adjust early according to injuries or something that becomes apparent. How they're throwing the baseball. We kind of thought that order made sense at the beginning if everyone was healthy.” With Santana leading the rotation, Molitor said that he would be followed by Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes in Baltimore but refrained from announcing his fourth and fifth starters. Molitor mentioned the uncertainty surrounding Phil Hughes, who was coming off a “sub-par” season, as the reason why he was dropped to third in the rotation. Hughes has suffered from recurring issues with a disc in his lower back but said that since he received an epidural, the disc has been able to heal and has responded well this spring. The right-hander has been consistently sitting at 90-92 in his starts and has struck out nine over 11 innings in Grapefruit action. Ervin Santana will be the eighth different Opening Day starter for the Minnesota Twins since the 2006 season. Since then only Carl Pavano (2011, 2012) and Johan Santana (2005, 2006) have thrown in multiple Opening Days.
  4. At the beginning of the month it was assumed that Tyler Duffey would be enjoying crab cakes and Flying Dog with the rest of the Twins rotation when the season started in Baltimore. After all, manager Paul Molitor said that it would take something “fairly significant” to not have Duffey as one of his five starters. Whatever the reason -- because of his spring training results, inability to adapt quickly, or the progress of others -- Duffey’s rotation certainty has waned. If the Twins’ decision-makers are looking at the results, Wednesday did not help Duffey’s cause.In a start against the Orioles' minor leaguers on the CenturyLink Sports Complex backfield (as chief competitor, Ricky Nolasco, prepared for his start at Hammond Stadium), Duffey failed to assert himself, allowing six runs spread over 5.2 innings on 90 pitches. Molitor, who had endorsed Duffey several weeks ago, watched several innings of what was an appearance marked with loud contact and inability to put hitters away on two-strike counts. “I was missing arm-side a little bit with my fastballs,” said Duffey of his outing. “They got me behind occasionally, and then I left some over the middle that got hit fairly well today.” The Orioles minor leaguers jumped on Duffey in the second inning, tagging him for a single, double and topped with a mammoth three-run shot to left-center as Molitor looked on. Duffey, who was around the zone for the most part, failed to get hitters to chase his curve ball out of the zone. “I've noticed that all spring,” Duffey said of his curve. “I think guys know it's coming so they're sitting on it. One guy took two fastballs. Didn't even budge. I think he was sitting dead-red on curve ball. So that's where now I'm going to have to adjust accordingly.” Duffey’s curve was clearly his best weapon in 2015 and he leaned on it heavily. According to Fangraphs.com he threw it 39.8 percent of his mix, tied with Toronto’s Brett Cecil for highest usage. Naturally the word on the deuce is getting out. However, Duffey thinks he has the solution to combat opponents’ approach. “Instead of trying to bury it,” he said he was going to simply “throw [the curve] for a strike. I think I can get away with more fastballs throwing that too. That's just the adjustment.” Duffey has also worked diligently on his change-up this spring, a pitch he needs to put the finishing touches on. After throwing several into the dirt to Orioles hitters, Duffey said he made an adjustment to bring the pitch up some, only to do so at the wrong time. In the fourth, he hung a change to a hitter who launched a two-run shot to left-center. Despite the six runs allowed, Duffey said he felt good about the process, including the in-game adjustments with his change-up. “I felt good but my location just wasn’t as good as it had been.” Duffey will likely get one more opportunity to show the Twins he can make his adjustments quicker and without so much barrel involved. Click here to view the article
  5. In a start against the Orioles' minor leaguers on the CenturyLink Sports Complex backfield (as chief competitor, Ricky Nolasco, prepared for his start at Hammond Stadium), Duffey failed to assert himself, allowing six runs spread over 5.2 innings on 90 pitches. Molitor, who had endorsed Duffey several weeks ago, watched several innings of what was an appearance marked with loud contact and inability to put hitters away on two-strike counts. “I was missing arm-side a little bit with my fastballs,” said Duffey of his outing. “They got me behind occasionally, and then I left some over the middle that got hit fairly well today.” The Orioles minor leaguers jumped on Duffey in the second inning, tagging him for a single, double and topped with a mammoth three-run shot to left-center as Molitor looked on. Duffey, who was around the zone for the most part, failed to get hitters to chase his curve ball out of the zone. “I've noticed that all spring,” Duffey said of his curve. “I think guys know it's coming so they're sitting on it. One guy took two fastballs. Didn't even budge. I think he was sitting dead-red on curve ball. So that's where now I'm going to have to adjust accordingly.” Duffey’s curve was clearly his best weapon in 2015 and he leaned on it heavily. According to Fangraphs.com he threw it 39.8 percent of his mix, tied with Toronto’s Brett Cecil for highest usage. Naturally the word on the deuce is getting out. However, Duffey thinks he has the solution to combat opponents’ approach. “Instead of trying to bury it,” he said he was going to simply “throw [the curve] for a strike. I think I can get away with more fastballs throwing that too. That's just the adjustment.” Duffey has also worked diligently on his change-up this spring, a pitch he needs to put the finishing touches on. After throwing several into the dirt to Orioles hitters, Duffey said he made an adjustment to bring the pitch up some, only to do so at the wrong time. In the fourth, he hung a change to a hitter who launched a two-run shot to left-center. Despite the six runs allowed, Duffey said he felt good about the process, including the in-game adjustments with his change-up. “I felt good but my location just wasn’t as good as it had been.” Duffey will likely get one more opportunity to show the Twins he can make his adjustments quicker and without so much barrel involved.
  6. He spins a huge slow curve but also has a floater of a changeup that averaged 72 MPH last year. In fact, he allowed this sweet home run to Stephen Drew on a 67.2 MPH pitch that sounded like a gun shot off his bat: http://baseballsavant.com/popup/video.php?video_id=241942083
  7. This is something I've discussed about the Twins' hitting philosophy in the past. They've cookie-cut a lot of their player's mechanics into the low movement mold (you can read about that here: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/joe-benson-and-the-twins-hitting-philosophy-r4302). Buxton fell along those lines. He had more lower-half movement in high school but that was coached out of him somewhere in the system. And to the Twins' credit, I understand what they are trying to accomplish when they are trading power for average. To be fair, I haven't seen his game swing this spring at all. In just reviewing his swing from early in the season to the latter version, you do see a change in his intent -- particularly in the lower half. http://i.imgur.com/uRrdYA3.gif http://i.imgur.com/GWJlKnP.gif In the above swing, Buxton is trying to get his foot down before the pitch is delivered. In the lower swing clip, Buxton is timing the move with his stride, engaging the lower half more. It's more about comfort and feel, I'm sure, but my sense is that Buxton will likely have the lower swing once he gets the reps.
  8. Byron Buxton didn’t exactly announce his presence with authority during his first stint in the majors. Of course that’s nothing new -- even for the game’s most elite prospects find the transition to baseball’s highest level challenging. What turns the game’s most elite prospects into the game’s most elite players are adjustments. The question for Buxton is, how quickly will he adjust?Age: 22 (DOB: 12/28/1993) 2014 Stats (AA/AAA/MLB): .276/.333/.447 (.779) with 17 doubles, 14 triples, 9 HR ETA: 2016 2014 Ranking: 1 // 2015 Ranking: 1 National Rankings BA: 2 MLB: 2 BP: 2 What's To Like “Buxton has more tools than HGTV -- is one shecky way to describe his potential. He has plus speed, plus defense, plus hit tool, plus makeup and so on…” is how I described Buxton when he was named the number one Twins Daily prospect last year and nothing has changed since. In the tool shed, speed is the most obvious as he demonstrated on the bases (103 stolen bases in 134 attempts in his career) and in the outfield (so many balls caught). Speed might be underselling what provides the most clear and present path to the starting lineup in 2016. His hit tool was a work in progress as he faced superior competition (read: OH MY GOD THAT SLIDER BENT THE LAWS OF SPACE AND TIME), but his ability to cover the real estate between Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario will be critical to the team’s success. Eventually his bat will become a focal point and the Twins don’t think that it is that far off. “He was better as the months of August and September progressed,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan said in regard to Buxton’s offense. “Even in pre-game, you could see a little bit of that. He was driving baseballs rather than just touching them. He hit a couple home runs, whatever he did.” Power may be the last facet to manifest as some evaluators believe he has 15+ home run potential in that tall frame. Like Ryan said, in September Buxton displayed some impressive opposite field power in Cleveland, sending a shot over the right center Progressive Field wall. So while double-digit dingers could be obtainable, his legs will also be generating his extra bases as a ball in the gap is an almost a sure-fire triple for Buxton. Speed kills, everyone. What's Left To Work On “I readily admit that I rushed him the first crack because we got stuck in the center field spot,” Ryan said of the decision to promote Buxton in early July. “Then he hurt his thumb which was the worst thing that could have happened.” In the grand scheme of life, it wasn’t the worst thing could have happened in 2015 (I mean, global nuclear winter seems slightly worse than one individual’s broken thumb but what do I know, I’m a stupid blogger) however it certainly didn’t help Byron Buxton’s baseball career. Buxton’s all-out hustle has led to several grotesque injuries that have stunted his development to some degree but the good news is that none of his previous injuries have been of the recurring/career-altering nature. Nevertheless, Buxton could use an unadulterated year of playing baseball instead of recovering. An uninterrupted season would also help him solve breaking balls. Sliders specifically seemed to be a foreign object to him. The root problem during his stretch with the Twins was that he was constantly behind in the count. Of his 138 plate appearances, just 27 of those ended in a hitter’s count but another 75 ended in a pitcher’s count. When you are behind as frequently as he was, he is going to face a disproportionate amount of breaking stuff until he can prove he can handle it. Working counts and capitalizing in hitter’s counts are all things that come with experience and, as Ryan mentioned, Buxton did show progress once he was finally healthy and getting regular at-bats. What's Next The Twins have been coy about Buxton’s immediate future. Both the front office and Paul Molitor have placed the burden of winning the center fielder job on Buxton. Is it possible that he spends some time in Rochester? Certainly. The Twins have suggested that Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are capable of playing the position and their recent experience with Aaron Hicks in center should give them reason for caution. The main takeaway is that Buxton’s struggles should not dim his star going forward. --- TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi TD Top Prospect #9: Kohl Stewart TD Top Prospect #8: Alex Meyer TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco TD Top Prospect #6: Stephen Gonsalves TD Top Prospect #5: Tyler Jay TD Top Prospect #4: Nick Gordon TD Top Prospect #3: Max Kepler TD Top Prospect #2: Jose Berrios Click here to view the article
  9. Age: 22 (DOB: 12/28/1993) 2014 Stats (AA/AAA/MLB): .276/.333/.447 (.779) with 17 doubles, 14 triples, 9 HR ETA: 2016 2014 Ranking: 1 // 2015 Ranking: 1 National Rankings BA: 2 MLB: 2 BP: 2 What's To Like “Buxton has more tools than HGTV -- is one shecky way to describe his potential. He has plus speed, plus defense, plus hit tool, plus makeup and so on…” is how I described Buxton when he was named the number one Twins Daily prospect last year and nothing has changed since. In the tool shed, speed is the most obvious as he demonstrated on the bases (103 stolen bases in 134 attempts in his career) and in the outfield (so many balls caught). Speed might be underselling what provides the most clear and present path to the starting lineup in 2016. His hit tool was a work in progress as he faced superior competition (read: OH MY GOD THAT SLIDER BENT THE LAWS OF SPACE AND TIME), but his ability to cover the real estate between Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario will be critical to the team’s success. Eventually his bat will become a focal point and the Twins don’t think that it is that far off. “He was better as the months of August and September progressed,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan said in regard to Buxton’s offense. “Even in pre-game, you could see a little bit of that. He was driving baseballs rather than just touching them. He hit a couple home runs, whatever he did.” Power may be the last facet to manifest as some evaluators believe he has 15+ home run potential in that tall frame. Like Ryan said, in September Buxton displayed some impressive opposite field power in Cleveland, sending a shot over the right center Progressive Field wall. So while double-digit dingers could be obtainable, his legs will also be generating his extra bases as a ball in the gap is an almost a sure-fire triple for Buxton. Speed kills, everyone. What's Left To Work On “I readily admit that I rushed him the first crack because we got stuck in the center field spot,” Ryan said of the decision to promote Buxton in early July. “Then he hurt his thumb which was the worst thing that could have happened.” In the grand scheme of life, it wasn’t the worst thing could have happened in 2015 (I mean, global nuclear winter seems slightly worse than one individual’s broken thumb but what do I know, I’m a stupid blogger) however it certainly didn’t help Byron Buxton’s baseball career. Buxton’s all-out hustle has led to several grotesque injuries that have stunted his development to some degree but the good news is that none of his previous injuries have been of the recurring/career-altering nature. Nevertheless, Buxton could use an unadulterated year of playing baseball instead of recovering. An uninterrupted season would also help him solve breaking balls. Sliders specifically seemed to be a foreign object to him. The root problem during his stretch with the Twins was that he was constantly behind in the count. Of his 138 plate appearances, just 27 of those ended in a hitter’s count but another 75 ended in a pitcher’s count. When you are behind as frequently as he was, he is going to face a disproportionate amount of breaking stuff until he can prove he can handle it. Working counts and capitalizing in hitter’s counts are all things that come with experience and, as Ryan mentioned, Buxton did show progress once he was finally healthy and getting regular at-bats. What's Next The Twins have been coy about Buxton’s immediate future. Both the front office and Paul Molitor have placed the burden of winning the center fielder job on Buxton. Is it possible that he spends some time in Rochester? Certainly. The Twins have suggested that Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are capable of playing the position and their recent experience with Aaron Hicks in center should give them reason for caution. The main takeaway is that Buxton’s struggles should not dim his star going forward. --- TD Top Prospect #10: Nick Burdi TD Top Prospect #9: Kohl Stewart TD Top Prospect #8: Alex Meyer TD Top Prospect #7: Jorge Polanco TD Top Prospect #6: Stephen Gonsalves TD Top Prospect #5: Tyler Jay TD Top Prospect #4: Nick Gordon TD Top Prospect #3: Max Kepler TD Top Prospect #2: Jose Berrios
  10. I can corroborate that. Spent a lot of time watching his outings and picked that up right away. (I believe Nick had some good video of his release point in spring camp that showed how low he would get at times.) I charted and wrote up his bullpen outings from last year as well: http://www.startribune.com/twinscentric-can-alex-meyer-be-a-shutdown-reliever/310133601/
  11. When the Minnesota Twins acquired pitching prospect Alex Meyer in 2012, Twins general manager Terry Ryan made it clear what the expectations for Meyer’s role would be. “Starter, starter, starter, starter,” Ryan told reporters emphatically. At that time the Twins were desperate for any semblance of starting pitching to add to their depleted farm system. On paper Meyer -- who had touched triple digits and held steady around 96-to-98 miles per hour -- was exactly the type of pitcher that the Twins needed. In his first professional season in the Nationals’ organization he had struck out 129 in 139 innings. By comparison the Twins’ organization’s strikeout leader that season was Jason Wheeler with 115 strikeouts (Wheeler, however, needed 27 more innings than Meyer to reach his total). In theory, Meyer’s addition to the system would provide the Twins with a future front-of-the-rotation pitching talent. Three seasons later however his role is less crystallized then what Ryan had envisioned. Meyer’s inconsistency in his mechanics and command combined with his shoulder woes have pushed him toward the bullpen (where he thrived, mind you, holding hitters to a .254 average in relief versus .325 as a starter). Nevertheless, the uncertainty and the shift to the bullpen, as well as talent additions, have driven Meyer lower on the prospect list but make no mistake he still has the tools to be a solid contributor somewhere on the staff.Age: 26 (DOB: 1/3/90) 2015 Stats (AAA/MLB): 94.2 IP, 5.13 ERA, 103/51 K/BB ETA: 2015 2015 Ranking: 5 National Top 100 Rankings BA: NR | MLB: NR | BP: NR What's To Like The velocity, that’s for sure. Meyer was originally drafted by the Red Sox out of Greensburg High School (Ind.) in the 20th round of the 2008 draft but a reported $2 million bonus offer from Boston was not enough to convince the hard-throwing right-hander to bypass college in Kentucky. In 2011, after flashing triple-digits fastball for the Wildcats, the Nationals snagged him in the first round at 23rd overall. So far, the Twins have only received a brief sampling of the heat. In his two-outing stint with the Twins last year he wound up throwing the second hardest fastball among the staff at 98. Velocity matters because dating back to 2008, when hitters are facing 98+, they hit .205 with a slugging of .288. In comparison, when pitchers are sitting 90-to-95, hitters have posted a .274 average with a .428 slugging. According to ESPN/TruMedia the Twins have hit 98 or higher on the radar gun just 23 times (13 of which belonged to Juan Morillo) and was the lowest number among all teams in that eight year span. But Meyer is more than just a pretty fastball. After the 2014 season, Baseball America anointed Meyer’s breaking ball, a knuckle-curve, as the best in the International League. Like his fastball, at times Meyer has trouble commanding it but the hammer break has made it a very good complement to his fastball. What's Left To Work On Consistency has been Meyer’s main issue but if there is one thing Meyer has been consistent about it has been his release point dropping over the last few years. When Meyer made an appearance in the Futures Game in 2011, PitchF/X data said he was releasing the ball near 6.6 feet. However, by the time Meyer arrived with the Twins, his arm angle had lowered so much that he was releasing the ball a foot lower than before. Download attachment: Brooksbaseball-Chart.png Considering Meyer has had shoulder ailments in the past, it is no surprise to see this type of dip in release point. In 2013 he missed 83 days because of a strained shoulder and was shut down in August 2014 with inflammation. This last year was relatively injury free but he readily acknowledge in Rochester that he was focused on raising his release point as he struggled with his command. Opponents who faced him in 2014 and then again in 2015 noted that his fastball looked flat and lacked the same movement compared to the prior season. If he is able to correct this, Meyer could be a dangerous pitcher on the mound. What's Next Since the Twins’ rotation is at capacity (and still trying to find room for Jose Berrios), there could be room in the bullpen as the front office’s indifference toward free agents relievers suggests that they believe in their crop of young power arms - including Meyer. Despite the struggles, with two option years remaining, the Twins can be patient with him. With a few tweaks, Meyer has the weapons to be a shutdown reliever. So while Meyer likely won’t start the season in Minnesota, he will be on a short list of pitchers who will get the call when help is needed. Click here to view the article
  12. Age: 26 (DOB: 1/3/90) 2015 Stats (AAA/MLB): 94.2 IP, 5.13 ERA, 103/51 K/BB ETA: 2015 2015 Ranking: 5 National Top 100 Rankings BA: NR | MLB: NR | BP: NR What's To Like The velocity, that’s for sure. Meyer was originally drafted by the Red Sox out of Greensburg High School (Ind.) in the 20th round of the 2008 draft but a reported $2 million bonus offer from Boston was not enough to convince the hard-throwing right-hander to bypass college in Kentucky. In 2011, after flashing triple-digits fastball for the Wildcats, the Nationals snagged him in the first round at 23rd overall. So far, the Twins have only received a brief sampling of the heat. In his two-outing stint with the Twins last year he wound up throwing the second hardest fastball among the staff at 98. Velocity matters because dating back to 2008, when hitters are facing 98+, they hit .205 with a slugging of .288. In comparison, when pitchers are sitting 90-to-95, hitters have posted a .274 average with a .428 slugging. According to ESPN/TruMedia the Twins have hit 98 or higher on the radar gun just 23 times (13 of which belonged to Juan Morillo) and was the lowest number among all teams in that eight year span. But Meyer is more than just a pretty fastball. After the 2014 season, Baseball America anointed Meyer’s breaking ball, a knuckle-curve, as the best in the International League. Like his fastball, at times Meyer has trouble commanding it but the hammer break has made it a very good complement to his fastball. What's Left To Work On Consistency has been Meyer’s main issue but if there is one thing Meyer has been consistent about it has been his release point dropping over the last few years. When Meyer made an appearance in the Futures Game in 2011, PitchF/X data said he was releasing the ball near 6.6 feet. However, by the time Meyer arrived with the Twins, his arm angle had lowered so much that he was releasing the ball a foot lower than before. Considering Meyer has had shoulder ailments in the past, it is no surprise to see this type of dip in release point. In 2013 he missed 83 days because of a strained shoulder and was shut down in August 2014 with inflammation. This last year was relatively injury free but he readily acknowledge in Rochester that he was focused on raising his release point as he struggled with his command. Opponents who faced him in 2014 and then again in 2015 noted that his fastball looked flat and lacked the same movement compared to the prior season. If he is able to correct this, Meyer could be a dangerous pitcher on the mound. What's Next Since the Twins’ rotation is at capacity (and still trying to find room for Jose Berrios), there could be room in the bullpen as the front office’s indifference toward free agents relievers suggests that they believe in their crop of young power arms - including Meyer. Despite the struggles, with two option years remaining, the Twins can be patient with him. With a few tweaks, Meyer has the weapons to be a shutdown reliever. So while Meyer likely won’t start the season in Minnesota, he will be on a short list of pitchers who will get the call when help is needed.
  13. I'm not sure what there was to doubt. If you doubted that he could sustain the production, that's fair. Again, that's what the percentage would bare out. Not really going out on a limb on that one. The reality is (1) he made tangible changes to his mechanics that we can see and (2) he was hitting the ball differently during that time. Can't argue that. To be clear, here's what I wrote at that time: He couldn't sustain it. No question.
  14. This. I don't mean to be glib about this. From a high level perspective, yes, more balls fell for hits in 2014 than the rest of his career. From a granular perspective -- examining the data more closely -- we find that a lot of those hits were to right field and then fell off again in the last two months of 2014 and beyond. Additionally, those hits to right in 2014 were considered well-struck -- not dinks or donks or flares or dying quails or what have you. He was doing something differently in 2014 than he did in the previous three years and the year after. The data bears that out.
  15. 1. Yes, yes he did: http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/kurt-suzuki-makes-changes-at-the-plate-r2553 2. The well-hit average to the opposite field and 8 doubles suggest that these were not flares or gorks. To be clear, I'm not suggesting he will be able to replicate what he did in 2014. I'm saying that if he is going to provide a decent slash line, it appears he needs to get back to what he was doing two years ago when he was driving the ball up-the-middle/opposite field.
  16. Wow. Neat. Here's an actual paragraph I deleted from this post because I didn't want to start a Star Wars brawl: This is the point in which the statistically inclined readers typically think to themselves something like "Yeah, doi, look at his track record, he was OBVIOUSLY due for regression" and then go off to watch Star Wars for the 15th time. And I don't disagree with that assessment because regression in baseball has been proven time and again. We have enough data to know that a 30-year-old with a league average-ish track record does not suddenly become a WAR superstar. It doesn't happen. There can be, however, incremental improvements. I don't want to discount that fact. The reason for the increase in BABIP in 2014 was his ability to get more hits the other way. He made some changes to his approach, was getting a higher percentage of hits the other way and then just stopped doing that again.
  17. Definitely agree that the defensive side is another big issue when it comes to playing time with Suzuki. Here's the thing with Kyle Gibson's framing number: They've always been bad, no matter who has been catching him. I wrote the same thing about Gibson's first season while Mauer was catching him. Admittedly, at that time Mauer was really bad at getting strikes at the bottom of the zone where Gibson was throwing most frequently. Now the Twins have never had a strong receiver when it comes to framing so we have no real comparison in what Gibson would be like with a good framer. Sometimes I wonder if certain pitchers are bad at getting borderline calls for various reasons. It would be an interesting study for someone with time/no life.
  18. Step 1: With all due credit to B-R.com, ignore their batted ball direction splits. Because of the methodology using Retrosheet's field diagram, the middle of the field is MASSIVE (http://www.retrosheet.org/location.htm). Inside Edge and others have a more equal distribution between what is left/center/right. Step 2: ???? Step 3: Profit.
  19. Why didn't I just say that "had Suzuki only hit all home runs he would have been pimp boss of everything"? Look, we're playing make believe to highlight how much his performance going the other way tanked his overall numbers. Nothing more. Nothing less.
  20. Kurt Suzuki’s 2015 season was the stuff of nightmares. He couldn’t hit. He couldn’t stop anyone on the bases. He couldn’t help his pitchers expand the zone. He was left being a bat flip enforcer from the dugout. Without many options to push Suzuki internally, the Twins acquired John Ryan Murphy from the Yankees to bolster the position. With at least one year left on his two year deal, many assume that Suzuki has become a lame duck catcher. Yet the Twins have not indicated anything other than expecting Suzuki to play a substantial role in 2016. Can Suzuki turn it around and provide offensive value?Now, I’m not going to admit that I was wrong here because I made a vow on my wedding day to never admit that I am wrong and I don’t plan on starting here. That being said, I was less right then I could have been regarding Suzuki’s immediate future in 2014. At that time, Suzuki’s decent peripherals and above average line drive rate to all fields in conjunction with his new approach suggested to me that he had enough hitting foundation to produce a good batting average/on-base combo. It went against the convention and percentages but even with some leakage, he still could likely post strong numbers. However, almost immediately the story was published, Suzuki proved me wron...less right than I could have been (it takes a big man to admit when he was less right than he could have been). And he continued to do so throughout 2015. Just when you thought he hit rock bottom, the earth would open up and reveal another seven story fall into a slumping abyss. READ: Position Battles - Catcher On July 31, 2014, Kurt Suzuki was hitting .304 with a solid .367 on-base percentage. Both figures were 50 points higher than his career norms. Nevertheless, the Twins boldly doubled down, sharing a similar belief that they could bet against the prevailing wisdom. From August through September of that year, he supplied a .240 batting average with a .290 on-base percentage. He basically replicated those numbers throughout the duration of the 2015 season, ending with a .240 average and a .296 on-base. Suzuki’s problem, according to manager Paul Molitor, had a lot do with what was going on between the ears. "I think sometimes when you get off to poor starts, even as a veteran, it becomes an uphill battle,” Molitor said of Suzuki’s 2015 struggles. “It's hard to look up at the scoreboard and see numbers that aren't very appealing. And you're trying to find ways to get it back into a more comfortable state and you end up thinking about the wrong things instead of just going out there and trusting each at bat.” On July 31, 2015, one year after signing his $12 million extension, Suzuki’s numbers were pitiful. His .230 average and .288 on-base percentage were certainly unbecoming of a starting catcher but there they were, glowing down from above on the giant Target Field video board, reminding him of how little he was contributing to his team. “I always told him, ‘Don't worry about what you hit now, worry about what you hit now for the rest of the season,’” Molitor said. “It's all about going forward. He wanted so much to be a part of it. He'd tell me ‘We're winning, we gotta chance but I feel like I'm not doing anything to help the team. I can't throw anybody out, I can't get a hit.’ So it bothered him.” Unlike 2014, there was a slight uptick in his production over the final months (“He realized we were playing for something,” Molitor reasoned.) but not substantial and certainly not enough to give anyone any reassurance that he could be counted on to anchor the position. The Twins were definitely not confident in his abilities to rebound, instead nabbing John Ryan Murphy to contend for the job. READ: John Hicks Excited To Join Twins The Twins say they were not banking on the same offensive production out of Suzuki for 2015 (in spite of extending him for an additional two years at the height of his output on July 31 suggesting otherwise) but feel that he is capable of splitting the difference. “We got an extreme amount of production out of him two years ago,” general manager Terry Ryan said earlier this offseason. “Nobody was expecting that level going forward because, all right he had an awful good year. But somewhere in between he should settle in.” Can Suzuki actually do enough to finish somewhere in between? As Molitor said, Suzuki’s problems might have a lot to do with his mindset but the data shows that what made his 2014 season so good and his 2015 so bad was the amount of success he had when going the other way. Download attachment: Suzuki.PNG Why this happened is unclear. Perhaps it goes back to what Molitor said about him trying too much rather than hitting what was given. Pitchers seemingly attacked him in a similar manner but with starkly different results, especially going the other way. Consider this: Had Suzuki only pulled or gone up the middle, he would have had a .312/.309/.414 batting line in 2015. Unfortunately, he went 15-for-89 on balls hit the other way, tanking his overall numbers. Looking over the video of the two seasons, you see him often pulling off of pitches he drove the other way in 2014. Here are two similar pitches he hit to right, the top is 2014 and the bottom is 2015: Download attachment: uwfvhW3.png Almost the exact same pitch at the exact same speed in a very similar location. In the top, Suzuki laces a liner to right. In the lower example, Suzuki skies out to right (as you might have suspected with the bat angle). Now watch the two swings in motion and watch what his head does. http://i.imgur.com/KFDUd0r.gif http://i.imgur.com/tSe53n8.gif In the firstexample above (2014), his head remains still and follows the pitch to right. In the one below (2015), he is pulling off the ball, which explains why he “just missed it”. This example is a microcosm of what made him outperform in 2014 and disappoint in 2015. It is possible for him to generate enough offense to avoid being a liability in the lineup but in order to do so, it appears that Suzuki needs to have at least some success going the other way. There are no guarantees he can do that. After all, the years and miles have piled up on his body so who is to say he will even repeat the same level of success pulling the ball or going up the middle as he did in 2015, let alone driving the ball the other way. “We all know he takes a beating,” Molitor said. “I can't really empathize with that. I don't know what it's like to take foul tips or get hit by follow-throughs and just the pounding those guys take squatting everyday like that. It's gotta take it's toll.” Could the years of abuse behind the plate hinder Suzuki's production? Molitor continued, “I think there are studies about catchers after their 30th birthday about offensive trends and things, so It obviously takes its toll. Click here to view the article
  21. Now, I’m not going to admit that I was wrong here because I made a vow on my wedding day to never admit that I am wrong and I don’t plan on starting here. That being said, I was less right then I could have been regarding Suzuki’s immediate future in 2014. At that time, Suzuki’s decent peripherals and above average line drive rate to all fields in conjunction with his new approach suggested to me that he had enough hitting foundation to produce a good batting average/on-base combo. It went against the convention and percentages but even with some leakage, he still could likely post strong numbers. However, almost immediately the story was published, Suzuki proved me wron...less right than I could have been (it takes a big man to admit when he was less right than he could have been). And he continued to do so throughout 2015. Just when you thought he hit rock bottom, the earth would open up and reveal another seven story fall into a slumping abyss. READ: Position Battles - Catcher On July 31, 2014, Kurt Suzuki was hitting .304 with a solid .367 on-base percentage. Both figures were 50 points higher than his career norms. Nevertheless, the Twins boldly doubled down, sharing a similar belief that they could bet against the prevailing wisdom. From August through September of that year, he supplied a .240 batting average with a .290 on-base percentage. He basically replicated those numbers throughout the duration of the 2015 season, ending with a .240 average and a .296 on-base. Suzuki’s problem, according to manager Paul Molitor, had a lot do with what was going on between the ears. "I think sometimes when you get off to poor starts, even as a veteran, it becomes an uphill battle,” Molitor said of Suzuki’s 2015 struggles. “It's hard to look up at the scoreboard and see numbers that aren't very appealing. And you're trying to find ways to get it back into a more comfortable state and you end up thinking about the wrong things instead of just going out there and trusting each at bat.” On July 31, 2015, one year after signing his $12 million extension, Suzuki’s numbers were pitiful. His .230 average and .288 on-base percentage were certainly unbecoming of a starting catcher but there they were, glowing down from above on the giant Target Field video board, reminding him of how little he was contributing to his team. “I always told him, ‘Don't worry about what you hit now, worry about what you hit now for the rest of the season,’” Molitor said. “It's all about going forward. He wanted so much to be a part of it. He'd tell me ‘We're winning, we gotta chance but I feel like I'm not doing anything to help the team. I can't throw anybody out, I can't get a hit.’ So it bothered him.” Unlike 2014, there was a slight uptick in his production over the final months (“He realized we were playing for something,” Molitor reasoned.) but not substantial and certainly not enough to give anyone any reassurance that he could be counted on to anchor the position. The Twins were definitely not confident in his abilities to rebound, instead nabbing John Ryan Murphy to contend for the job. READ: John Hicks Excited To Join Twins The Twins say they were not banking on the same offensive production out of Suzuki for 2015 (in spite of extending him for an additional two years at the height of his output on July 31 suggesting otherwise) but feel that he is capable of splitting the difference. “We got an extreme amount of production out of him two years ago,” general manager Terry Ryan said earlier this offseason. “Nobody was expecting that level going forward because, all right he had an awful good year. But somewhere in between he should settle in.” Can Suzuki actually do enough to finish somewhere in between? As Molitor said, Suzuki’s problems might have a lot to do with his mindset but the data shows that what made his 2014 season so good and his 2015 so bad was the amount of success he had when going the other way. Why this happened is unclear. Perhaps it goes back to what Molitor said about him trying too much rather than hitting what was given. Pitchers seemingly attacked him in a similar manner but with starkly different results, especially going the other way. Consider this: Had Suzuki only pulled or gone up the middle, he would have had a .312/.309/.414 batting line in 2015. Unfortunately, he went 15-for-89 on balls hit the other way, tanking his overall numbers. Looking over the video of the two seasons, you see him often pulling off of pitches he drove the other way in 2014. Here are two similar pitches he hit to right, the top is 2014 and the bottom is 2015: Almost the exact same pitch at the exact same speed in a very similar location. In the top, Suzuki laces a liner to right. In the lower example, Suzuki skies out to right (as you might have suspected with the bat angle). Now watch the two swings in motion and watch what his head does. http://i.imgur.com/KFDUd0r.gif http://i.imgur.com/tSe53n8.gif In the firstexample above (2014), his head remains still and follows the pitch to right. In the one below (2015), he is pulling off the ball, which explains why he “just missed it”. This example is a microcosm of what made him outperform in 2014 and disappoint in 2015. It is possible for him to generate enough offense to avoid being a liability in the lineup but in order to do so, it appears that Suzuki needs to have at least some success going the other way. There are no guarantees he can do that. After all, the years and miles have piled up on his body so who is to say he will even repeat the same level of success pulling the ball or going up the middle as he did in 2015, let alone driving the ball the other way. “We all know he takes a beating,” Molitor said. “I can't really empathize with that. I don't know what it's like to take foul tips or get hit by follow-throughs and just the pounding those guys take squatting everyday like that. It's gotta take it's toll.” Could the years of abuse behind the plate hinder Suzuki's production? Molitor continued, “I think there are studies about catchers after their 30th birthday about offensive trends and things, so It obviously takes its toll.
  22. Very disappointed that I couldn't make it this year. Sounded like it was a great time.
  23. Monday Update: Tickets have been added for the Twins Daily Meltdown this Saturday from 5-8 PM. Following Twins Fest, you can walk a couple of blocks and join the Twins Daily community, former Twins pitcher Carl Pavano, KFAN’s Meatsauce and 612 Brew at the Pourhouse in Downtown Minneapolis to get revved up about the 2016 season. Every attendee will get two free craft 612 Brews, a limited edition Twins Daily Meltdown pint glass and be eligible for an array of door prizes including Twins tickets, gift cards and ten Truman Shaving Sets from Harrys.com. Starting at 5:30, we’ll have a Q&A session with Carl Pavano, who won division championships with the Twins in 2009 and 2010 and a World Series with the Marlins in 2003. It will be followed by a panel discussion with John Bonnes, Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson and Aaron Gleeman, when they will take your questions about the 2016 Twins. The event will be hosted by Paul “Meatsauce” Lambert, from KFAN’s #1 rated Powertrip Morning Show. You’ll get a chance to meet them all, and while tickets will be $35 at the door, they’re just $25 right now. Click here to grab them. You can’t attend the event without a ticket! Twins Daily’s mission is to build a community of fans passionate around the Twins, so if you’re a regular reader who hasn’t attended one of our events, you’re really only getting a fraction of the experience. Is there a better time to talk baseball than the dead of winter? Is there a better place to do it? (A: Nope.) Gather your friends and grab your tickets now. Thursday Update: Half of the limited tickets for the Meltdown sold on Day One! Click here to order your 2016 Winter Meltdown tickets! Today we're happy to announce the best package of door prizes in the event's history. They include Twins tickets, ten(!) Truman Shaving Sets from Harrys.com, gifts from The Pourhouse in Downtown Minneapolis and 612 Brew and copies of the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook, plus some other miscellaneous prizes like some rare pint glasses from previous years' Meltdowns. Of course, every attendee gets this year's Winter Meltdown Pint Glass and two free 612 Brew craft beers with which to fill (and refill) it. Plus, meet former Twins pitcher Carl Pavano, KFAN celebrity Paul "Meatsauce" Lambert, crabby Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman and the Twins Daily writers. And it's all just two blocks from Target Field right after Twins Fest on Saturday the 30th. Again, tickets are $10 cheaper online and are going fast. Get your friends together and get them now. You do not want to be shut out. Wednesday Update: In addition to an appearance by former Twins pitcher Carl Pavano, I’m very pleased to announce that Paul “Meatsauce” Lambert will be emceeing the Twins Daily Winter Meltdown next Saturday following Twins Fest. Meatsauce is the most twisted of the degenerates on KFAN's #1 rated Powertrip Morning Show. His hobbies include eating, making inappropriate comments and comparing Twins losing seasons to a dumpster fire. Meatsauce will be joining Pavano, Pavano’s mustache and the Twins Daily writers at the Pourhouse in Downtown Minneapolis from 5-8 next Saturday (January 30th), just one block from Target Field where Twins Fest will be winding down. Tickets go on sale at 8:00 AM tomorrow (Wednesday) and we have sold out quickly in the past, so please don’t mess around – we don’t want to shut anyone out. They’re $25 apiece if you order early versus $35 at the door (if we have any left), and include two free craft beers from 612 Brew AND a free Twins Daily Winter Meltdown Pint Glass that you can see below. Sauce and The Stache … and more special guests may be announced soon. But if you wait that long the tickets will likely be gone. We'll post the link to buy tickets here as soon as they're available. TICKETS ARE NOW AVAILABLE! Click here to order your 2016 Winter Meltdown tickets! Tuesday update: Carl Pavano, who pitched for the Twins from 2009 through 2012, will be a special guest for the 2016 Twins Daily Winter Meltdown, and you can join us. Besides modeling a killer mustache, Pavano helped the Twins win two AL Central championships and also won a World Series championship with the Florida Marlins in 2003. He was an All-Star in 2004 and finished sixth in the Cy Young voting with an 18-8 record and a 3.00 ERA. Finally, he was relatively famous before his MLB career even started, as he was traded for Pedro Martinez when Martinez went from the Expos to Boston. Pavano will join a several other special guests, answering questions about his professional career during the Twins Daily Meltdown Presentation and also meet and greet attendees. Additional guests will be announced over the upcoming days, but don’t wait to hear who they are before you grab your ticket. The limited tickets will be available Wednesday at 8:00 AM and we have sold out in previous years, so set an alarm and get them early! Tickets at $35 at the door, but just $25 for a limited time online. In addition to meeting Pavano and other special guests, attendees get a Twins Daily Winter Meltdown Pint Glass and two complimentary local craft beers from 612 Brew. The event will take place right after Twins Fest, from 5-8 on Saturday January 30th, just one block from Target Plaza at the Pourhouse in Downtown Minneapolis. Any questions? Comment below. And keep checking back at Twins Daily as we announce more special guests. Monday Update: "People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~ Roger Hornsby How about we all stare out the window together? On Saturday, January 30th – from 5 PM to 8 PM – Twins Daily will be hosting the 3rd Annual Twins Daily Winter Meltdown. This year’s Winter Meltdown will be held at The Pourhouse in Downtown Minneapolis, less than a quarter mile away from the plaza at Target Field, and will feature the same Twins-related discussion and festive atmosphere that you have come to expect from the Twins Daily community. It is friggin' cold out so let’s fire up the hot stove and think baseball again. New to the Winter Meltdown experience? Here’s what you can expect… MINNESOTA TWINS GUESTS You will get exclusive insight to the game from a former Twins player -- an up-close-and-personal opportunity to pick the brain of someone who played in a Minnesota uniform. In 2014, Scott Erickson regaled the crowd with his tales of pitching in the 1991 World Series. Last year, Jacque Jones told stories from The Team That Saved Baseball. This year? Well, you will just have to wait a few days to find out who the guests will be in 2016. In addition to the special guest speakers, Twins Daily writers will be on hand to discuss and debate some of the hot topics involving the local nine. COLLECTIBLE PINT GLASS No one leaves the event empty-handed either as each Winter Meltdown ticket comes with a collectible Twins Daily pint glass, courtesy of our friends at 612 Brew. And (AND!) with each ticket comes two of 612 Brew’s delicious beers to quench your thirst while you consume baseball. A Twins Daily Winter Meltdown Pint Glass Two (2) complimentary local craft beers from 612 Brew Special Twins guests. Twins talk. Pint glass. Two beers. A lifetime of memories. As a baseball fan, what more incentive do you need? (How about something that hits you right in the feels.) TICKETS GO ON SALE THIS WEDNESDAY And they are limited to be sure to be here on Wednesday morning when ticket sales go live. Check back at TwinsDaily.com or follow the event at Twins Daily’s Facebook page (here) to get the latest information on the details for the 2016 Winter Meltdown.
  24. "Abad is not and never has been a good pitcher, his velocity is down." Man, you're right. I wish the best writers would come up with some insight like that. Thanks.
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