Parker Hageman

On this week's NO JUICE PODCAST, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman review the 2015 World Series and discuss the pivotal plays/decisions in Game 5 that led to the Royals victory over the Mets. Parker attends the Torii Hunter retirement press conference and shares his thoughts on the event. LISTEN UP.They talk about the Gophers football program. They both state on record they like Karl-Anthony Towns. Dan visits Missour-a. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #74: TORII HUNTER'S GOODBYE Click here to view the article

Seems to be that Andy Green impressed more than Gardenhire fell behind.

That's essentially what Clint Hurdle did with the Pirates. In the book "Big Data Baseball" (good read by the way), Hurdle was very much a similar manager to Ron Gardenhire in his days with the Rockies and early with the Pirates. It was only after being confronted by his GM that he embraced more of the overall process that stemmed from the front office's analytics team. He still managed with an old school slant but he was more understanding of the use of the shifts, lineup construction and player acquisition.

Will Ron Gardenhire ever manage again? Not this season it appears, that is, unless one of his employed colleagues finds themselves on the wrong end of a midseason pink slip. After taking a year off, the former Twins manager was passed over by several clubs this offseason, including the Washington Nationals and the San Diego Padres. The latter was particularly a surprise considering that it was widely assumed by insiders that Gardenhire’s major league managing experience made him the frontrunner for the Padres opening. "We're betting on a person, we're betting on a guy we feel like can be a leader," Padres GM AJ Preller told the San Diego Union-Tribune before finalizing their decision, "someone who can bring more on the relationship and culture side, more on the day-to-day leadership. The clubhouse, the communication, I think that's going to be the biggest thing." Nevertheless, when the Padres front office made their decision, it was Andy Green, someone with no major league managing experience, over Gardenhire and his track record of 13 seasons including a Manager of the Year award and a five-time runner-up.While Gardenhire had plenty of on-field managerial shortcomings during his tenure with the Twins – including being late to embracing strategy such as defensive shifts, platooning and effective lineup construction -- being a relationship builder and running a clubhouse was never in question. Gardenhire has earned a reputation as being adverse to the analytics side of the game but during the TwinsDaily Offseason Handbook interview with Terry Ryan, Ryan adamantly defended his former manager suggesting that “Gardy is up to snuff on analytics” despite what some outside critics believe. The Twins analytics department incessantly fed Gardenhire reports and data to aid in his decision-making. Of course knowing them and using them are two totally different things. “Believe me, I love to look at numbers,” Gardenhire said in his Hammond Stadium office in his final spring training with the Twins in 2014. “I’ve always been into numbers, I go with match-ups and all these things, I also believe in a starting lineup, trying to put a consistent lineup down. But I use match-ups all the time. I’ve been a little more old school as far as the lineup, one-two-three, that type of thing, the way I grew up playing ball and these things. I see a lot of different lineups nowadays and I’ve been reading into it a little bit more, talking to our people -- it can come up interesting sometimes.” The fact that the Dodgers, with a front office which was remodeled completely with the intention of using an analytical slant, has not even contacted Gardenhire for an interview likely speaks volumes toward how that community views him as a manager. (Naturally, they are set to interview Kirk Gibson who comes from an anti-analytics organization himself.) That is not necessarily a knock – after all, the two managers in this past World Series, Ned Yost and Terry Collins, are not known for being forward-thinkers when it comes to using data – but more clubs are expecting their leadership to have this knowledge to better implement on the field what the front office creates off of it. To be sure, Gardenhire did not lose the position in San Diego so much as Andy Green won it. “I had heard when he interviewed there that he really knocked it out of the park,” Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale told the Arizona Republic. “They were really excited about him. I’m really proud of him. That’s quite an accomplishment at 38.” At his introductory press conference, Preller raved about his attributes. “There have been big-league managers that have been successful from all different paths. We were open-minded to really any of those paths and finding the right person who had presence, energy, was intelligent on the baseball side, was very prepared. He checked all those boxes. He’s a guy who we feel can connect with our organization and players and take us to a different level.” Reportedly, Gardenhire earned enough respect in the San Diego front office that they wanted his experience around the clubhouse, even if it was in a lesser role. According to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, multiple sources told him that the Padres have offered Gardenhire a bench coach position. On Wednesday, Gardenhire joined MLB Network Radio and told the show that the position was not officially offered. “I don’t think anything has been formerly offered,” he said. “I’ve had a good conversation. The San Diego group was unbelievable.” He also commended Preller on his talents and called him a “brilliant young man”, saying that Preller’s baseball junkie attitude is something that he respects. While most insiders believe Gardenhire would reject the offer, a season tutoring Green while learning the finer points of the National League style of the game would probably be better than sitting out another year. With just the Dodgers’ position open and no other job prospects remaining, unless he is willing to guide Green through his first year as an major league manager, Gardenhire will likely spend the summer waiting for the phone to ring. Click here to view the article

Gotta give a lot of that credit to the Twins Daily team and community for coming up with plenty of interesting questions and topics for Terry Ryan. Thanks to everyone that submitted those!

We all know the baseball season doesn't work like that. It may start as Escobar/Dozier but who knows if Escobar maintains his second-half production. Then there's injuries. Plus Santana would also be a decent option to pinch run (the Royals have essentially won ballgames because of their pinch running speed off the bench) or maybe a defensive replacement in the infield (particularly if Sano is playing third base). If Buxton starts the year in AAA, Santana gives the Twins a backup CF to Hicks. Polanco probably has a higher offensive ceiling, sure, but there is no harm it letting him start the season in Rochester. If Santana doesn't figure things out, showing little progress in the spring, put him through waivers and see if he goes through (if he does, that speaks volumes). The Twins have options. Depth isn't a bad thing. I'd just advise against rushing him out the door.

I get Escobar and Dozier, but I'm not sure Polanco is necessarily ahead of Santana on the depth chart. He made 20 errors himself in 880 innings this year. Gordon is several years away. Nunez might not be with the team. Frankly, I don't know what his role would be or how Molitor would use him. That's up to what he does this spring. I just know that he has enough positives to want to keep around to see if he can improve his results.

If you want to believe that 2015 was his true abilities, then OK. Personally, reviewing his skill set, his track record and most player's ability to improve as they get more time, it leads me to believe that Santana is capable of providing more (how much more is up for discussion). I think you are coming from a short-sighted place when it comes to player development. The fact is, the Twins are not faced with a roster crunch at this moment (we'll see how that changes come spring) so let's not resort to cannibalism just quite yet.

He did hit .280/.324/.402 in 559 AA plate appearances and .278/.333/.454 in another 267 AAA plate appearances. There's a track record to suggest he can hit at a decent clip at the MLB level. His defense was bad, no question. He made tons of mistakes and played himself out of a job. We were having the exact conversation about Trevor Plouffe in 2011 when he made 11 errors in 45 games at short in 2011 as he posted a 697 OPS. His introduction to third saw a similar amount of errors (both physical and mental) as he learned a new position. I would bet there were plenty of people here looking to push him out after his 2012 or 2013 season. Plouffe dedicated himself and became a significant contributor both offensively and defensively. Santana: 2,514 MiLB PA .276/.319/.399 // 5.1% BB%/18.2% Plouffe: 3,565 MiLB PA .258/.320/.405 // 7.9% BB%/16.4% Ultimately, Santana might not be on the team because of having better, proven talent ahead of him as he runs out of options, but I wouldn't count him out just yet.

Mediocre results with above average tools.

Well...sort of...yeah. He was the starting shortstop through June 7 when he was sent down to Rochester. When he returned, they gave him a few more weeks of starts. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2015-lineups.shtml Ryan addresses this in the handbook interview -- I recommend picking up a copy!

I guess I don't quite understand this stance. He's got all the tools to be a shortstop (great reaction, good range, great arm) including being very good at the double play feed, but seems to have problems "finishing" plays as the Twins put it. I'd personally like to see if he can improve that this spring. One benefit to showing improvement is also increasing his trade value -- Twins can't keep dumping players with good tools who figure it out elsewhere. Escobar is shortstop #1 right now but he's also been prone to cold streaks throughout his career. Having some form of insurance behind him would also be beneficial.

While I don't know if that was necessarily THE REASON he seemed out of sorts this year, I do think there is some mental contributions to why he looked like he was pressing so hard at the plate. The struggles defensively likely carried over in some way. This year's swing appears to be him trying hard to drive the ball. That combined with the fact that he was swinging more and chasing more, it seems to be something that Santana just needs to take some pressure off himself.

When evaluating things that had gone wrong in 2015, Twins general manager Terry Ryan indicated the play of Danny Santana as a disappointment for the organization. “Santana was a huge piece, lead-off hitter, speed guy who would play adequate center field,” Ryan said during the Offseason Handbook interview. “All of a sudden we just couldn’t get him going.” It is easy to forget looking back now that heading into the season, Danny Santana was counted on as being a significant contributor. In addition to being a table-setter atop the lineup, he was called upon to anchor the infield at short. While his time as a lead-off hitter was brief and the title of starting shortstop lasted just over two months, it likely cost the Twins some in terms of the standings. What went wrong with his year and is it too little, too late for the 24-year-old middle infielder?At the beginning of the year, Paul Molitor made it known that Santana was the guy he would write in at the top of the order. His speed was clearly a big factor but Molitor also felt that Santana, while not one to draw walks, would be pesky enough to find ways to reach base at a steady clip. Santana’s regular appearance at the top of the order would last 21 games. In that time the switch-hitter posted a .267 OBP while striking out in 24 of his 78 trips to the plate. He failed to even draw one walk in that stretch. That, combined with shoddy glovemanship in the field, brought the experiment to an end. The Twins weren’t fooling themselves on what they believed Danny Santana could provide in 2015. After all, his .405 batting average on balls in play was an extreme rarity. “Historically my gut tells me that it's not sustainable because he didn't put up those kinds of numbers in the minor leagues," general manager Terry Ryan said October of last year regarding Santana's future. "If you're going to be true to yourself and what you know has happened with historically 95 percent of the players, you've got to expect a little bit of a back-off of those numbers, but that would be plenty good enough.” Everyone anticipated regression. No one really thought there would be this much regression. But 2015 turned into a weird baseball version of Groundhog Day for Santana -- every day he would wake up, go to the ballpark and not hit. His aggressive tendencies prevented him from letting the count encroach upon three ball territory (he had 15 plate appearances reach three balls and managed just two walks). He chased after 43 percent of pitches that were out of the strike zone, well above the 30 percent MLB average. What he did put in play was mainly weak ground balls, a far cry from the line drive machine that arrived in 2014. Santana, who had hit over .500 when swinging at the first pitch of the at-bat the prior year, decided to go ultra-aggressive in 2015, swinging almost 40 percent of the time at the first offering. The returns were not nearly as good as in his rookie season, posting an empty .222 average on those swings. His two-strike approach varied radically between the two years as well. In 2014, six of his seven home runs came in two-strike counts. He collected another 16 extra- base hits and managed to hit a respectable .247 when in the pitcher’s kill zone. This past year Santana might as well have faced the final pitch from the dugout as he went back there momentarily. He hit .119 with two strikes and that was accompanied by a .280 OPS, the lowest OPS among hitters with 100 or more plate appearances with two strikes. While pressure to perform and the competition adjusting to Santana’s tendencies -- not to mention carrying some of his fielding woes to the plate with him -- the Twins also felt there was a physical component to his swing that was affecting his production. After all, his line drive rate plummeted from 26% to 18% while his ground ball rate spiked from 49% to 58%. Meanwhile, the pitchers were attacking him in the same manner as before, he just was simply unable to do anything with those mid-zone fastballs. Something was not right. In the first week of June, the Twins sent him to Rochester with a clear message to fix his swing. “For Danny Santana, it may very well be all in the hands,” Rochester Democrat & Chronicle’s Kevin Oklobzija wrote. “Or, rather, what his hands are doing when he's staring down the pitcher in the batter's box. There's too much movement, Santana believes. He thinks that's why his average with the Minnesota Twins tumbled more than 100 points from last year to this year.” Whereas teammates like Oswaldo Arcia and Kennys Vargas have mechanics that just scream at you with movement, Santana’s mechanics were more like a whisper. There is a brief twitch from his front foot as he transfers his weight back and then exploded forward with his quick hands to meet the ball with minimal additional effort from any other part of his body. It was repeatable, balanced. However, for whatever reason, Santana added a new element to his chain in 2015. A minor yet notable change in his system that may have been a factor in the reduced and lower quality of contact. Watch Santana’s swing from the left side from 2014 (top) compared to 2015 (bottom). http://i.imgur.com/RK0VygJ.gif http://i.imgur.com/hdpK4ri.gif Santana incorporated a new heel lift and in-turn on his front side as part of the loading process as the pitcher is releasing the ball. It is small, it is barely noticeable and yet it is likely playing a role in why his numbers dropped off so fast and so furious. Download attachment: Danny Santana_2015 Lift.png 2014 Download attachment: Danny Santana_2014 Lift.png 2015 The intent is to generate power when loading the hips (ironically enough it worked wonders for Eduardo Escobar) but in Santana’s case the new movement is pertinent to his struggles as it creates just enough of a glitch in his swing to disrupt the system. Now he is moving while the pitch is coming, throwing off his timing ever so slightly; his head is changing planes and his hands are creating a different swing path (he is making more contact on top of the ball). With the results of the two seasons as evidence it would seem like an easy decision to encourage Santana to work on returning to his previous swing this winter. Santana is out of options which this makes it a vital off-season for him. Eduardo Escobar has done everything that has been asked of him and more to earn the starting shortstop position heading into 2016 but Santana has the potential to be a contributor as a utility infielder or a safety valve if Escobar regresses. The Twins do not necessarily need Santana to be a utility player but Brian Dozier’s second-half decline over the past two years suggests that some time off throughout the beginning and middle parts of the year could help extend his season. A combination of Dozier, Escobar and a version of Santana that closely resembles the 2014 model would give the Twins solid middle infield depth. At the very least, a solid performance would create some trade value. The Twins say they want to get him going. What would you do with Danny Santana in 2016? ***For more discussion on how to build the 2016 Minnesota Twins roster, be sure to get a copy of the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook.*** Click here to view the article

Thanks. Fixed.

On this week's NO JUICE PODCAST, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss the Twins Daily interview with Terry Ryan. Will the Twins target more starting pitching? What about catching? More importantly, did Parker get Terry's goat this year? LISTEN UP.Other topics include paying respects to Flip Saunders, previewing the World Series, Halloween etiquette and more. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #73: TERRY RYAN'S OFFSEASON PLANNING Click here to view the article

The change from four-seam to two-seam came because he said his four-seamer (the one he used most of the year last year) was not effective. This was from a discussion in May about his pitch selection and it became apparent soon enough that an injury was one of several reasons he was finding his fastball ineffective. He also lost his cutter, one of his best pitches in 2014, and that made his fastball that much more effective. If he can get his health back -- which means improved velocity and command -- no reason to not see a better year in 2016 out of Hughes.

FWIW, he's the breakdown of what happened to Suzuki this year or maybe to put it more in line with his long track record, what made his 2014 season so successful: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20443-article-did-you-know/?p=413832. To your point about radically changing results, I do believe this can be and has been done a lot in baseball. It doesn't always last. Judging by Suzuki's contact rate and line drive rate, I believe he is still capable of producing similar to how he did in 2014. If you had a serviceable platoon candidate for someone to give him more rest as Nick suggests today, I think you will see numbers in between 2014 and 2014 as Ryan said: http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/ryan-on-suzuki-he-took-the-post-r4232

"Suzuki's wRC+ in 2012 was 63 Suzuki's wRC+ in 2013 was 67 Suzuki's wRC+ in 2014 was 107 Suzuki's wRc+ in 2015 was 66." Hmm. This conversation feels familiar...