Parker Hageman

rpms makes it nasty. the confidence is the byproduct of having a nasty pitch.

It is a positive metric based on the BIS data and a negative one based on PitchF/X. This usually is a pitch classification difference but there may be something lagging in the updates for one or the other. To be clear, the negative value is based on the linear weights of the count, not the location of the pitch. The 8 hits surrendered on his curve, most came with two strikes and would dock him more for that because of the run expectancy of recording an out in two-strike situations. More importantly, it is a minuscule sample size. True, but hitters tend to adjust knowing a pitch is coming. If he has shown he will throw his curveball out of the zone in two-strike situations, they will lay off. Francisco Liriano had one of the game's best sliders but because he was unable to work ahead and was very transparent, hitters began to lay off this pitch in his last few seasons with the Twins.

Filth flarn filth. That’s the only thing that came to mind watching Tyler Duffey’s curveball bend space and time over the course of his last two outings. After a rough introduction to the majors at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays hitters, Duffey has settled in and compiled two solid starts in a row against Cleveland and Baltimore. Ignoring his major league debut for a moment, Duffey has now struck out 15 batters over his last 13.2 innings pitched. Of those 15 strikeouts, 14 have come on his curve.Duffey, a former closer from Rice University and converted into a starter after the Twins drafted him, arrived at the organization with two viable above-average pitches in his fastball (four and two-seamers) and curveball, and he has also mixed in a work-in-progress change-up. Duffey told Twins Daily this spring that he considered his curve ball his best pitch and it shows. Any pitcher will tell you that the fastball is the foundation -- that sets up every pitch -- but the curve ball has been, as the French say, Le Unhittable. With the exception of a few flares, a couple of seeing-eyes and one hanging fly which 40-year-old Torii Hunter in right failed to wrangle in, Duffey’s curve ball has been a zone-expanding, bat-missing machine. Just watch some of these swing that Duffey was able to induce in his start against Cleveland at Target Field last week. http://i.imgur.com/shQKra1.gif http://i.imgur.com/JRiPVcg.gif These are well-compensated, experienced, fully grown professional baseball players taking ridiculous swings usually reserved for hack golfers at a bachelor party after six beers while blindfolded. To date, Duffey has done very little to disguise what is coming once he gets ahead: He has thrown curve balls 51% of the time in a pitcher’s count. Despite the ubiquity of scouting reports on pitchers, there is still some element of surprise that gives a rookie pitcher an advantage over hitters. You can hear about a pitcher’s repertoire and watch footage but until you experience it in the batter’s box and see it for yourself, the pitcher will have a slight edge. That may play a small factor in Duffey’s dominance over two consecutive lineups. http://i.imgur.com/Kjlvpwr.gif However even when knowing the pitch is coming it still can cause hitters to look foolish. For example, during Thursday night’s contest Duffey unleashed a doozy of an 0-2 curve that had Orioles’ slugger Chris Davis completely flummoxed. Davis swung at the ball -- a pitch that would barely make it across the plate in the air. The Orioles successfully lobbied the umpire crew to say that Davis had made the world’s slightest contact with the ball and was therefore foul. With new life, Duffey delivered the exact same pitch in the exact same location which Davis could not manage to nick this time for strike three. Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid (1).png What makes Duffey’s curve ball so hellacious? It is the amount of spin he is able to generate. According to his PitchFX spin rate, he is breaking off his curve at 1600 RPMs on average. Why is this important? Studies have shown that the higher the RPMs on breaking balls, the more the pitch moves and the higher the swinging strike rate typically is. Across the league, MLB pitchers have a 1500 RPM average (although ESPN/TruMedia’s database suggests it is closer to 1350). On the high end of that spectrum are guys like Oakland’s Sonny Grey (1898 RPM), Seattle’s Felix Hernandez (1858) and Houston’s Collin McHugh (1886). It was in discussing McHugh’s acquisition that the Houston Astros shared a little secret in their methodology. According to the Bloomberg article in 2014 entitled “Extreme Moneyball”, the Astros analytics team identified McHugh, who was a castoff from both the Mets and Rockies organization, as a potential target because his curve registered such a high spin rate. McHugh’s curve was reaching nearly 2000 RPM. Duffey’s bender does not reach that strata but it is above average in spin rate nonetheless. Based on the 100 curves thrown, Duffey’s hook resides alongside Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, Washington’s Gio Gonzalez and Arizona’s Jeremy Hellickson. Through three starts, Duffey's curve sits among some of the game's best when it comes to spin. Who knows what lies ahead in the career for the big right-handed. Will hitters key in on his patterns? Will his fastball have enough oomph to support his curve? Will his change-up develop as a third option? If nothing else, Duffey's curve will prove to be a very valuable weapon out of the bullpen. Click here to view the article

Again, that's patently false. The ones freely available have too much noise but over the course of a season (or multiple years) you will see that the catchers who pitcher laud as having great skill for framing are always near the top. Now there is another level metric that removes assigning all of the skill set to just the catcher. It's a vastly improved measurement. That being said, pitchers and players do not have to believe in any stats. They don't even have to understand them or acknowledge their existence. Front offices do. They are the ones who have to look at a player's entire body of work and make million dollar decisions. The Rays looked at framing stats. The Pirates looked at framing stats. The Astros looked at framing stats. They exist. It is beneficial to have players who understand data and what it is trying to fundamentally accomplish -- like having Brian Dozier understand why he is shifting into shallow right field. You can chose to ignore it -- like some in this thread have mentioned without explanation as to why they don't "believe" in them -- but the fact is it exists and teams do use it.

4) Terrible approach vs lefties. .183/.250/.282 in 80 PAs this year. One of the things Brunansky stressed this spring was fixing Arcia so that he would be able to hit against same-sided pitching. Getting him to take better at bats vs lefties. Rosario isn't great vs LHP but he sames to have a clue in the batter's box.

It's getting closer to reality. http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-automated-strike-zone-20150810-story.html

In the current freely available iteration of catcher stats, all/most catchers will have some games with those types of umpires. While some will have an umpire like West a few more times than others, it all washes out in the long run. The new version of pitch framing stats takes the umpire into account.

Correct. And I'm not attacking Perkins for not liking pitch framing statistics. I am assuming he was unaware that there is a pitch framing metric that accounts for all the items he listed. Let me ask you, why don't you believe in pitch framing statistics?

It's probably more of a step back than an about-face. The takeaway is that all the things that Perkins said he didn't like about the pitch framing stats are actually accounted for in Strike Zone Plus/Minus system.

Yeah, that's it.

In an interesting development this week, the Minnesota Twins’ source of SABR-friendly quotes, Glen Perkins, has elaborated his position on the importance of pitch framing. What makes this particularly intriguing is because a little over a year ago Perkins had explained that he felt that catcher Josmil Pinto needed to improve his framing game in order to contribute at the major league level. In his explanation, the closer suggested that framing ranked ahead of pitch calling when it came to the contributions of catching. Now Perkins says that pitch framing numbers are basically junk. Is Perkins right? Is the idea of pitch framing just snake oil sold by data-pushers?Last year, the Pioneer Press’ Mike Berardino documented a conversation that Perkins had with a local radio show in which he deemed the ability to frame pitches as one of the most significant keys to a catcher’s ability. The discussion centered on Pinto and his subpar framing numbers. “Pitch-framing ability, I think that makes the biggest difference in the world,” Perkins said on Phil Mackey and Judd Zulgad’s 1500 ESPN’s radio program in 2014. “Eric Fryer is really good at pitch framing, so I’m excited about that. He does a great job.” Why does it make the biggest difference in the world? “When you can get your pitcher borderline pitches and get them to go his way, that allows you not only to get ahead in counts but expand the strike zone and go further away,” Perkins said. “That goes a long way to having success. … I think that’s the most important thing. The game calling is secondary. You’ve got to be able to catch pitches around the zone. You need to get pitches. You can’t give pitches. The more pitches you can get, the better off our pitching staff is going to be.” Pitch framing, to paraphrase former MLB umpire Jim McKean, isn't holding a ball or doing any special tricks, it is simply receiving the ball using the proper techniques. And when it comes to seeing results, some catchers are considerably better than others. The notion of pitch framing’s worth extended to data-savvy teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates who, according to Big Data Baseball, zeroed in on free agent catcher Russell Martin almost exclusively on his ability to steal strikes on the outer edges of the strike zone. This, wrote Travis Sawchik, made signing free agent pitchers like Francisco Liriano that much more attractive. Blessed with an assortment of unhittable stuff, Liriano had faulty control but a rare swing-and-miss arsenal -- particularly when he was able to deploy his slider. Martin, the Pirates front office correctly surmised, could turn some of those borderline fastballs into strikes and allow Liriano to spin more sliders. So as the front office of the Pirates rebuilt their rotation based on the belief that Martin had the ability to steal strikes -- whether because of skill, voodoo or otherwise -- only to become an annual playoff team, one of the Twins’ most outspoken proponents for using and understanding data has thrown shade at the data used in measuring pitch framing. “That’s what frustrates me about the framing statistics,” Perkins told Berardino at some point this season. “I know when I say I don’t believe in them, that’s what a lot of guys do: They’ll believe in numbers that support what they think, what their opinion is, and they’ll not support stuff that doesn’t back up what they believe. That’s part of it for me, too.” Wait. What? How does pitch framing go from “the most important thing” a little over a year ago to “I don’t believe in them”? “There’s just too many variables,” he said. “I still think there’s bias in who’s pitching and bias in who’s hitting, regardless of the fact (umpires) get graded or not. I think some guys have tighter strike zones as pitchers and guys that are more established have a bigger strike zone. And hitters, too.” To be fair, Perkins isn't completely off-base. While he may have overstated his position in 2014, pitch framing was far from a perfect science and measurement. In examining Josmil Pinto's shortcomings this past offseason, evidence of Pinto being unfairly docked on pitches that were in the strike zone but ultimately called a ball due to a pitcher grossly missing his location were highlighted. Available framing stats found at StatCorner.com do not account for a pitcher's intent. Is it the catcher's fault that he called for a slider away only to have to lunge back across the plate when a pitcher misses his spot? That is why Baseball Info Solutions developed a Strike Zone Plus/Minus metric that accounts for factors other than just the catcher (all the gory details found here). Their study showed that even when considering the pitchers, hitters and umpires, Kurt Suzuki was still one of the worst pitch framers in the game at -15 runs in 2014. This season, despite showing improvements by StatCorner.com’s measurements, according to BIS’s Strike Zone Plus/Minus Suzuki is actually at -11 runs saved, again the worst framer in baseball. Roughly translated, 11 runs equals about one win in the standings. Is that important? "One pitch can mean the whole game,'' Russell Martin, who signed a five-year, $82 million contract with Toronto partially based on his framing abilities, told USA Today. "Going from a 2-1 count to a 1-2 changes that at-bat completely. As you go through the year, there are times when getting a call here and a call there can change the outcome of a whole year, really, when you're talking about being in the playoffs or missing the playoffs by one game.'' Perkins’ stance on pitch framing isn’t without its merit but at the same time, starting catchers have thousands of data points each season. While some measurement systems are grabbing a bunch of noise, patterns begin to emerge with various catchers who far exceed others at coaxing more out-of-zone pitches to be called strikes and fewer in-zone pitches to be called balls. There are reasons why some catchers like Jonathan Lucroy are perennially at the top of the framing list while others like Suzuki and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are pulling up the rear. What's more, there is now a framing metric that accounts for all the influencing factors (pitchers, umpires and hitters) which had previously concerned players like Perkins. For the Twins who are doing their best to remain relevant in the wild card race, one game in the standings could end up being the difference between a one-game playoff berth or another October at home. Click here to view the article

@willihammer I do agree the Twins should have thrown inside -- just not as a response for "pimping" or showboating.

The Minnesota Twins retreated from Canada on Thursday night, soundly defeated by the Toronto Blue Jays over four games. In the process they lost their postseason position and winning record. Reflecting back on what they could have done better to quiet the Blue Jays’ mighty lumber, the Twins admitted they failed to dominate the space between the batter and the plate effectively. Thursday night’s starter Kyle Gibson, who was shelled for eight runs over four and two-thirds innings, told reporters after the game that he failed in his attempts to establish his fastball inside. “I didn’t establish an inside fastball at all. That’s something I wanted to do and needed to do,” Gibson said after the game. “You have to do it against those guys. You can’t put yourself in situations where you have to throw pitches out over the plate, that’s where you get in trouble.”Gibson simply picked up where others in the rotation had left off before him. The big bats for the Blue Jays were far too comfortable extending their arms and taking advantage of the outer-half. For instance, Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson was able to launch this opposite field shot off of Ervin Santana. Baseball purists and Twins fans will probably applaud Sano’s tactics over the Blue Jays'. On the other hand, the Toronto hitters are having fun and providing some entertainment to the game. Throwing at players just because of showboating reeks of the “get off my lawn” mentality. Players like Bautista and Encarnacion are well within their bounds to pimp some shots while pitchers like Volquez who take exception to the show are within their rights to sizzle a fastball near their belt. That’s baseball. In the end, throwing inside should be about setting up other pitches rather than sending the proverbial message. Click here to view the article

Who had August 5th for the date the Twins would start hitting again?

Most obvious think I've read all day. The point being, the Twins likely are not replacing Nunez on the roster with an outfielder now.

The problem with removing Nunez right now is that then the roster is left without a viable backup shortstop option if anything were to happen to Escobar.

Honestly, at this point, not much. Buxton is coming back and will immediately improve the outfield. If Hicks is proving that he can't handle right-handed pitching, there will be opportunities to platoon him with Rosario or Kepler could be up in September. It would be nice to have acquired AJ Pierzynski for a cheap left-handed platoon option with Suzuki -- albeit defensive liability. Shortstop is the biggest issue but Eduardo Escobar can fill in for the remainder of the year. Steady in the field. Occasional pop. While I agree with you in theory, the issue has been that Arcia has been far too streaky in Rochester. After binge slamming home runs, he's 6-for-50 (.120). Plus you would have to diminish the defense in the outfield (we discussed this at length on this week's Gleeman & The Geek). Maybe when Buxton is back and September rolls around, Arcia is a platoon option (although the Twins don't want him to be one). The issue is that if you call up Arcia now, you have to remove Shane Robinson (or maybe a pitcher) from the roster. That's fine but I'm not sure the Twins are interested in doing that immediately. Again, I go back to wanting as much outfield defensive as possible and serviceable offensive contributions versus occasional power and poor defense.

What does Ronda Rousey’s last opponent and the Minnesota Twins’ lineup have in common? Neither can hit. Well, that’s not entirely accurate however, as Bethe Correia hit the mat pretty hard. The Twins’ offense, on the other hand, look like they couldn’t even hit the mat at this point. Sure, pitchers like David Price can make even the best hitters feel like they are swinging a car antenna but, as shocking new research revealed, the Twins have not faced David Price in all 17 games since the All-Star break.Despite not having to face Price every night, the Twins still managed to have one of the least potent lineups post-break. Hits are frequently a precursor to runs. Runs, as the rules would have it, are needed to win baseball games. After scoring 4.3 runs per game in the first half of the year (ninth place), they have struggled mightily to push players across the plate as of late. Through 17 second-half games, the Twins have averaged almost one full run less (3.4 per game) in that time. One of the cornerstones to the team’s first-half success, timely hitting, has all but disappeared. The Twins hit a robust .283 with runners in scoring position prior to the Midsummer Classic (4th in MLB) and have dropped to .218 (26th) since. The ability to accumulate hits at a clip higher than the norm is frankly unsustainable and one of the reasons the team outperformed expectations early on, but now the hits are not coming in any situations -- men on, men off, night, day, home or road. Nothing. Following a night in Toronto in which the soft-tossing Marco Estrada limited the lineup to just two hits resulting in a solitary run -- on a sacrifice fly, no less -- the Twins second-half batting average slipped to .213, the lowest in baseball. This series was supposed to matter. The Twins were desperately clinging to the last wild card and starting a four-game set against an opponent that was looking to steal that ticket from them. To show how serious they are about October baseball, the Blue Jays armed themselves to the gills, preparing for all- out war. So far, it appears that the Twins have brought a knife to a bazooka fight. A rubber knife. That a dog has chewed on. Now, in a whimper of a dog missing its rubber knife, the Twins find themselves on the outside looking in on the postseason. Without some efforts from the offense, there is little hope of getting that spot back. That sort of decline is expected out of a lineup that is loaded with young, unpolished hitters but the Twins’ most notable area of offensive weakness comes from the three professional, veteran hitters at the top of the order. In the beginning of the season the Twins’ top three hitters -- a combination of Brian Dozier, Torii Hunter and Joe Mauer -- scored an average of nearly two runs per game (1.6) thanks to a steady mixture of collecting hits, getting on-base and Dozier popping dingers. Now the Twins’ top of the order throng has been effectively shut down. Dozier can’t find any real estate when he puts the ball in play and far too often he isn’t even able to do that, striking out in over 30% of his plate appearances. Hunter has regressed significantly over the month of July, batting .193/.230/.351 over his last 61 plate appearances. Mauer, meanwhile, had put together a string of strong games heading into the break but seemingly lost his plate awareness, taking more defensive swings or watching strike three whistle past. What makes this development particularly damning is that it effectively renders Miguel Sano, the lineup’s most tactical weapon, useless. While onlookers celebrate Sano’s patience and zone recognition (a fantastic skill set to have, by the way) the bigger picture is missed. The purpose of the cleanup hitter is to drive in runs. Sano proved that he could do that in the minors and hit the ball really hard in his arrival to the majors. Once he showed he could do unforgivable things to fastballs, opposing teams quickly rationed those pitches. With no one regularly on base ahead of him nor anyone behind him in the order able to contribute, teams happily throw the big man sliders away and let him trot to first base instead of around all of them. The Twins had an opportunity to upgrade some of the underperforming positions in the lineup at the trade deadline but chose not to. Which is fine. The Twins want to dance with the date they brought to the party, for better or worse. If they expect to regain their playoff slot, they need big contributions from the top of the order. Click here to view the article

Parker Hageman of Twins Daily stepped in as co-host on this week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode and topics included the Twins trading for Kevin Jepsen, Tommy Milone's injury, Tyler Duffey joining the rotation, Aaron Hicks' improvement, Byron Buxton's next step, Danny Santana and Jorge Polanco going to the minors, whether or not to worry about Glen Perkins, and recording your children doing embarrassing things for future use. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click the Play button below. Click here to view the article

God, you are right! One thousandth of a point! Urps. Thanks. This is also my favorite site and, I'm sorry, I've never read your writing but I'm sure I would generally like it too.