Parker Hageman

With the Minnesota Twins experiencing a losing skid that threatens to take them below the .500 mark, there is no shortage of hand-wringing over Joe Mauer’s subpar performance. Inserted daily in a key middle-of-the-order position, Mauer has vastly underperformed his career rates. As Aaron Gleeman detailed this week, Mauer’s season has been borderline disastrous in terms of production at a position that places a premium on offensive contributions. Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson echoed those concerns as well, citing Justin Morneau’s on-going battle with concussions that has sidelined him for an indefinite period of time. The real question everyone is asking themselves is if this is how it ends for Mauer -- rather than going out with a bang, does he goes out with a whimper?Isolating the source behind Mauer’s apparent decline is a lot like trying to figure out why they keep trying to open a dinosaur theme park on that island. There are multiple factors at play and we may never know the real reason. Aging, the rigors of catching, physical injuries and, of course, brain injuries have all likely played a role in his current status. The concussion may be the easiest of the dots to connect considering his performance before and after the trauma, Mauer also managed to compile impressive second-half numbers in 2014 (.300/.388/.419 in his final 63 games) and battled an oblique injury in between. There is no denying that the concussion has had some effect on his game -- likely a significant one at that -- but the late season surge suggests that he is capable of playing through it. With that in mind, it is difficult to place the entire output decline this season squarely on the concussion. Early last season, opponents began to align their outfield defenses to combat his opposite field tendencies. The Rays were one of the first organizations to shade him almost as an exclusively opposite field hitter, moving their right fielder within steps of where a center fielder should normally play. Mauer, who averaged .422 batting average on balls in play from 2009-2013 when going the other way on the fly or on a line, suddenly found that some of those hits were being taken away. This season, with more teams joining in the outfield shift game, even fewer liners and flies are becoming hits and his average going the other way is down nearly 100 points from his 2011-2014 totals. It is somewhat surprising that it took until 2014 for teams to recognize Mauer’s radical split tendencies. After all, Fangraphs.com’s Dave Cameron was championing the use of the double shift (infielders shifting one way, outfielders the other). “So, stat guys working for MLB clubs reading this,” Cameron wrote over five years ago, “this is your challenge for 2010 – convince your manager to give the double-shift against Mauer a chance. Make him change his approach in order to get on base. Stop letting him beat you just because he’s so different than a normal hitter.” What teams finally saw in the data was a clear-cut pattern from Mauer in which almost none of his batted balls were reaching the far right portion of the outfield. At least not in the air. Why waste time covering real estate that isn’t going to get touched? Teams were smart to hedge their bets on Mauer’s opposite field tendencies. Download attachment: export.png Although the strategy only directly stole about 10 hits away from his overall totals, the shifting may have also had a psychological effect on Mauer which influenced his performance. The alignment would challenge Mauer to attempt to adjust from his bread-and-butter (opposite field liners) and try to elevate pitches on the pull side. In May manager Ron Gardenhire told the media that he felt Mauer would start hitting the ball in different zones in order to reset the defense. By the time June rolled around last year, he had successfully transitioned away from dumping balls into left and hit a higher percentage of them up the middle. His average and on-base percentage began to ramp up again as the outfield defenses began to play straight-up. This offseason Mauer and the Twins went to some length to correct the fly in the ointment to ensure the shift wouldn’t be an issue moving forward. In spring training, mlb.com’s Rhett Bollinger wrote that Mauer was working tediously with Tom Brunansky to pull the ball better than he did last season. Last season he finished with a .224 batting average when pulling the ball -- the lowest among qualified hitters. As one of the game’s best pure hitters, this was a giant pox and addressing it would be a must. After honing his craft, Mauer came out in this season’s first month with a 36% pull rate which was the highest distribution of batted balls to his pull side over the last six years. And it paid off too. He has hit .310 with a .431 slugging percentage when hitting that direction, a sizable improvement over 2014. But that may have also created new problems. One of Mauer’s most glaring problems this season has been a lack of performance against fastballs. From 2010 to 2014, he has batted .359/.451/.541 against the heat. Even last season he managed to hit .318/.408/.421 off fastballs. In all cases, the vast majority of those numbers came from driving fastballs the other way. In 2015 he is batting just .256/.310/.353 on the cheese and has attempted to pull those pitches at a much higher rate (from 18% in 2014 to 26% in 2015). What stands out the most in the data is that Mauer has increased the amount of times he chases after a fastball out of the zone -- particularly inside and off the plate: Download attachment: output_FifNOU.gif Download attachment: Mauer.png This is interesting because it appears that either Mauer or the coaching staff moved him slightly away from the plate as well. This may be a response to the jump in cutters and fastballs in on the hands. http://i.imgur.com/4DVFJe2.gif The shifting and Mauer’s response somewhat explains the decline in batting average but it certainly does not explain not being able to drive the ball with authority. While a new approach at the plate could result in some iffy contact, Mauer has witnessed a precipitous drop in both his hard hit ball figures as well as his fly ball distances. That is likely due to either his physical state or his concussion. However his game plan at the plate as well as the defensive alignment may be partly responsible for the loss of extra base hits. From 2011 through 2014, Mauer feasted upon the left field line, using that to accumulate numerous doubles. Download attachment: export (1).png With teams stationing a fielder on the chalk and a newly kindled effort to pull the ball, Mauer has hit fewer balls to the left field line than he had in the past. Download attachment: export (2).png Now when he receives a fastball on the inner-half or middle-in, instead of inside-outing the pitch or punching it towards left as he did in the past, he is now trying to go up the middle or towards right. This has resulted in a spike in grounders and the defense’s infield middle shift has taken away a number of would-be base hits. The notion that Mauer would become an power machine once he started to pull the ball more never manifested. While he has shown the ability to achieve a few more base hits on the right side, he still has not proven that he can elevate the ball in that direction and teams have opted to shade him to left to take away his extra base hit potential. Unless he can figure out a way to somehow drive the ball on the pull side, the tactics of yanking pitches has been detrimental to his overall approach. Even with the shaded defensive alignment, it may be in Mauer’s best interest to return to his strength of driving the ball the other way -- even if it means losing some hits in the process. Click here to view the article

On this week's NO JUICE PODCAST, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss the moment every Twins fan has been waiting for -- Byron Buxton has officially arrived. Did you know he's fast? You probably didn't know he is fast. Check out the videos below. LISTEN UP.Here's Byron Buxton legging out a stand-up triple with Chattanooga earlier this year: There are bound to be struggles -- particularly with sliders from right-handed pitchers -- but for now let us all enjoy watching the future of baseball play the ame with blinding speed. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #59: Byron Buxton's Debut Click here to view the article

Plouffe hit a home run tonight. Pitch was middle-up. Plouffe made two outs as well. Both of those were on fastballs in. Not sayin, just sayin.

Plouffe has become much more of steadier hitter as of late by avoiding the prolonged slumps he experienced earlier in his career. He used to have a giant hole in his swing on right-handed sliders away but he has since attacked those. It's possible that pitchers/teams noticed he was sitting on pitches on the outer-half in certain counts too much and started to bust him inside a little bit more rather than going away. He had been a really strong inside ball hitter so I'm sure he will turn on a few of those eventually. Edinson Volquez will be an interesting matchup tonight. He's got a running sinker but doesn't have the greatest command of it. Look for Plouffe to turn on one of those.

What makes you think he's lost bat speed?

Admittedly, Mauer does deserve a post all on his own.

No, headline aside, the post is about Plouffe's struggles.

I'll start by prefacing my comment as this was not a post about Joe Mauer but, like all things, it ALWAYS turns into a discussion about Joe Mauer, right? I had to mention Mauer in the post because if I didn't, the comment section would be only remarks about not mentioning Mauer. The OF shift shouldn't be a shock. I detailed that development early last year (http://www.startribune.com/twinscentric-what-is-going-on-with-joe-mauer-here-s-the-data/261202251/). Teams are just responding to what his batted ball profile indicates. Even with all the efforts this spring to work on being a better pull hitter, he still doesn't elevate the ball to right field -- it's mostly grounders (70%) or liners (25%).

Once a prime contributor to the Minnesota Twins’ early season surge to the top of the American League Central, third baseman Trevor Plouffe has suddenly gone cold in the heart of the order. Unfortunately for the team, Joe Mauer shares similar woes at the plate. Since the beginning of June, the Twins are hitting a league-worst .119 (8-for-67) with just two extra base hits over the last nine games. In order to compete for a playoff berth, they will need better production from the middle of their order. Is this the beginning of a large slump for Plouffe or will he return to his early-season form?For Plouffe, April and May were extremely successful months in the batter's’ box. In the season’s first two months he helped buoy the middle of the order -- one that was vacated by Torii Hunter early in the season. At the end of May, he was holding the second-highest OPS on the team as well as a robust .721 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position. Plouffe was productive at all the right times which helped propel the Twins’ offense forward and confounded analysts attempting to explain how the Minnesota ballclub was on top of their division. Admittedly, the turn of the calendar is an arbitrary moment in the baseball season; nothing changes in the competition or in the player just because it is Ms. June’s time to shine on the clubhouse wall. That notwithstanding, Plouffe has appeared like an entirely different hitter this stretch. Mired in an extended 2-for-32 slump -- one which he showed signs of shaking off on Tuesday night by lashing a triple off the wall in right field -- Plouffe is wrestling with the toughest element of the game: adjusting to a new plan of attack. In the days bygone, reports traveled by word of tobacco-filled mouth. Now information is binary and able to be downloaded, disseminated and acted upon by the very next game. But baseball’s information game is a two-way street. The pitchers are armed with data and the hitters are prepared in kind. “We get so much information it can choke a cow,” Twins hitting coach Tom Brunansky likes to say about the flow of knowledge pertaining to his area of expertise. So shouldn’t hitters be just as prepared as their pitcher counterparts? While baseball’s hitter-pitcher matchup should behave like a stalemate cold war, the fact is the advantage often goes to the player who possesses the ball and is able to throw the pitch he wants. The problem for hitters is that the game never sleeps. Not for a second. Coaches, pitchers, scouts, and front office analysts are all trying to find the right combination that will get you out. If you were hitting balls hard in a certain situations, with a certain pitch, in a certain area of the zone, there is a strong chance that things will change the next time around. That has essentially happened to Plouffe. After showing that he could drive the ball on the outer-half to the opposite field, teams have tried something else. Somewhere between the end of May and the beginning of June, pitchers started to add another wrinkle. In the first two months pitchers would hammer him away with fastballs (40% inner-half of the zone). However, since the beginning of his slump, they have shifted that attack inside just off the plate (60% inner-half) and Plouffe has been unable to resist or put the ball in play effectively. The ESPN TruMedia heat maps below show how pitchers have shifted from throwing fastballs away to the inside portion: Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid (2).png Download attachment: trumedia_baseball_grid (3).png There has been a concerted effort particularly by right-handed pitchers to pound two-seamers in off the plate on Plouffe. In Fenway against the Red Sox, Plouffe offered at a running fastball that was down-and-in on a an one-one count: http://i.imgur.com/J00dTNw.gif When the Brewers visited, Milwaukee reliever Jeremy Jeffress also ran a fastball in off the plate which Plouffe bounced out on a one-oh count: http://i.imgur.com/9tVPm4o.gif Those types of pitches look appetizing coming in before they burrow their way into the bat handle at the point of contact. Not surprising, Plouffe’s chase rate grew in June as well with the majority being swings at pitches inside off the plate. This expansion of the zone has led to weaker contact as well as a drop in walks. Possibly because of his determination to drive runners in, Plouffe’s walk rate suffered in this time as well. Dating back to May 21, he has drawn just one walk in 62 plate appearances. To be fair, 30-plus plate appearances is not a real concern. It just takes a few decent at-bats to help pull a hitter out of the funk and the stretch will be forgotten. However, with the added issue of Joe Mauer’s lack of production in front of him, it has exacerbated the problem for the team overall. If the Twins expect to continue to battle for a top spot in the division, they will need Trevor Plouffe to re-calibrate quickly. Click here to view the article

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/608343132120481794

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/608333348012982274 *BlankenHORN, I've been told. Twins system has been pretty light in regards to left-handed power bats and I suspected that Kyle Tucker was on the top of the list due to the low numbers in that department. So I'm not entirely surprised by the decision to go back-to-back left-handed bats.

https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/608323798803349505

On this week's NO JUICE PODCAST, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman head to Target Field to meet up with Twins official scorer Stew Thornley. In addition to assigning errors to Twins' fielders, Stew has not only been called “the most recognizable and respected local baseball historian and writer” by the City Pages but he has also been called "the most interesting man in baseball" by the No Juice Podcast. LISTEN UP.Some topics: Are errors a worthwhile statistic? Can the Twins keep it up? St. Paul Saints* and Minneapolis Millers history. Can a gynecologist be a good scorekeeper? Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #58: STEW THORNLEY *PLUG: You should order Stew’s latest book, The St Paul Saints. Do it. Do it now. Click here to view the article

Indeed we did. I believe I was your ride.

Still an amazing performance:

JR "Moonlight" Graham will get the start on Saturday.

That was another fantastic Twins/Brewers game. I thoroughly enjoyed Anthony Swarzak's first career start in 2009 -- that was actually the game where TwinsCentric was created and ultimately produced TwinsDaily.com. So, really, we all have Anthony Swarzak to thank for this website.

The energy is always a little bit different when the Milwaukee Brewers come to town. When the Brewers come to town, there’s suddenly an increase of people who claim that Spotted Cow is beer’s gift to God and wear ‘Party Like It’s 1982’ T-shirts. There are comments made about the lack of tailgating facilities and how the concourses are not spacious enough and, ugh, what is that, sky? Isn’t there some way to blot out that unsightly glowing orb? The standings never really seem to matter. One team could be on top of their division, like the Twins, and another, like the Brewers for example, could be so far out of the race that the Cubs are thinking about dropping them as their minor league affiliate. It doesn’t matter. For the Twins-Brewers series happens in a six-game microcosm. Winner of the series retains bragging rights until football season. It is the place to be in the summer. And, for the first time in several years, this series falls on a weekend. Need more convincing to get down to Target Field this weekend? Check out these on-field moments from when the Brewers came to town.June 17, 2007: Prince Fielder’s Inside The Park Home Run The Metrodome was teeming with 30,000 fans on a Sunday afternoon and the Brewers were well represented. Milwaukee, at 38-30, had the National League Central’s only record above .500 in mid-June. The Twins, on the other hand, were in the middle of the AL Central, barely keeping their heads above .500. After dropping the first two games, the Twins’ offense surged out on top of Brewers’ Jeff Suppan. Led by Justin Morneau (3 RBI) and Lew Ford (4 RBI) -- who was an early substitute after Torii Hunter was struck by a Suppan pitch in his first at-bat -- the Twins took a 9-4 lead into the top of the eighth. Reliever Juan Rincon allowed an RBI single to current Brewers manager Craig Counsell, followed by a home run to Corey Hart. Clinging to a 9-7 led, Ron Gardenhire turned to closer Joe Nathan for the final three outs. Brewers’ designated hitter Prince Fielder led off the inning by lofting what should have been a sure out to Ford in center field. The result was this: One of Fielder’s NL-best 50 home runs in 2007, his inside-the-park home run would be followed by three straight singles, a strikeout and then a sacrifice fly by Counsell to tie the game. Fortunately for Twins fans, Morneau led off the bottom of the ninth with a solo home run to send everyone home happy. This game had it all -- the Metrodome’s quirkiness front-and-center, Lew Ford acting a fool, and Prince Fielder chugging all the way around the bases. Morneau’s walk-off home run was just icing on the cake. April 14, 1992: Paul Molitor Steals Home For the defending World Series champions, the 1992 season started off slow. Prior to the season, the Twins had traded a highly thought of pitching prospect (Denny Neagle) for the 27-year-old John Smiley who had won 20 games the previous season with the Pirates in an effort to replace Jack Morris, who had departed to Toronto. High hopes were placed on the arm that finished third in the NL Cy Young voting. However, the year opened with a three-game series in Milwaukee and the Twins’ key offseason acquisition lasted just five innings in a 9-5 loss at County Stadium. His second start on April 14 against the Brewers at the Metrodome would be substantially worse. In the third inning of the Tuesday night game, the Brewers started with a pair of singles followed by two walks -- the latter of which was a bases-loaded version to none other than Paul Molitor. After a single and sacrifice fly, Molitor found himself on second but wanted to go another ninety feet. With Greg Vaughn batting, Molitor swiped third on Smiley and catcher Brian Harper. Vaughn popped out, leaving Molitor on third with two outs. With two down and Robin Yount -- a future Hall of Famer himself -- at the plate, Molitor took a walking lead against Smiley, who is in the full windup, and does this: The steal of home was impressive. It’s a feat that is reserved for the players with turbo-charged motors, razor sharp instincts as well as some hefty cojones. Those traits propelled Molitor throughout his Hall of Fame career and through his coaching tenure. That said, the play was actually pretty meaningless in that inning and the grand scheme of the game: Yount walked (Smiley’s third) and the next batter, Franklin Stubbs, lashed a triple and the final wound up being 11-1, but an act of athleticism like Molitor’s should be celebrated. April 27, 1994: Scott Erickson No-Hits The Brewers This was a different Brewers team, to be sure. After the 1992 season, they had allowed Molitor to leave Milwaukee via free agency to division rival Toronto. As Molitor helped the Blue Jays build a dynasty, the Brewers sank to the bottom of the AL East. General manager Sal Bando struggled to find a suitable replacement for Molitor’s bat in the designated hitter spot. By 1994, they were using the Twins’ 1991 World Series catcher Brian Harper in that role. In 1994 the Twins were not in much better shape. They had a core of Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Shane Mack, Chuck Knoblauch and recent free agent signee Dave Winfield, but the rest of the roster was a skeleton crew. The pitching rotation was also bad. Kevin Tapani was aging and the young arms like Willie Banks and Pat Mahomes that the Twins expected to rise never took flight. Then there was Scott Erickson. Scott Erickson was never the same pitcher he was at his peak in mid-1991. The velocity was always inconsistent, he was losing the darting fastball/diving slider and hitters simply weren’t missing much. In 1993, he led the league in losses (19) and hits allowed (266) in 218.2 innings. Through his first four starts of the 1994 season, he had allowed 38 hits in 21.2 innings resulting in a shiny 7.48 ERA. Then he went out and did this against the new Brew Crew: It had been over 26 years since the last Minnesota Twins no-hitter. The Twins would win 6-0 behind the blast of Kent Hrbek’s home run and Kirby Puckett’s two doubles. Erickson’s next start would come in Milwaukee where the Brewers would get vengeance -- they tagged him for seven runs on nine hits and chased him after the fifth inning. May 30, 2013: Joe Mauer Goes Back-to-Back With Brian Dozier The Twins and Brewers were both well on their way out of the 2013 race when 32,000 showed up to Target Field for the last of the four game series between the two border rivals. Minnesota had seized the first three games behind the starting pitching of Kevin Correia, Scott Diamond and Samuel Deduno. Minor league free agent P.J. Walters was entrusted with the sweep game. Minnesota’s lineup -- headlined by lead-off hitter Jamey Carroll’s 574 OPS -- jumped all over former Twin and Brewers’ starter Kyle Lohse. In the fourth, Brian Dozier led off with a solo home run and was followed by Joe Mauer: Mauer’s home runs have become few and far between these days but witnessing one is a thing of beauty that will be reminisced about to the following generation. Mauer home runs are not the epic, mouth-dropping moon-shots shared by Jim Thome or Harmon Killebrew. Mauer’s are unique in that the vast majority of them slip gently over the left field wall, like they were intentionally placed just one row in, with English from his left-handed swing. In retrospect, the 2013 Twins season felt like it was close to if not the deepest, darkest period in Minnesota Twins history. Nothing was going right and there seemed to be no end to the losing in sight. Nevertheless, it still felt great to sweep the Brewers. Interestingly enough, on the broadcast, Paul Molitor happened to be in Fox Sports North’s booth. As Mauer circled the bases, Molitor asked in jest “Should I stick around for a while?” I suppose the current Twins fans should be glad that he did. Click here to view the article

On this week's NO JUICE PODCAST, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman talk about the first-place Minnesota Twins which leads to a discussion about what the team's playoff rotation would look like. LISTEN UP.Other topics include Terry Ryan on stats and more. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #57: SETTING THE PLAYOFF ROTATION --------- As always, the coolest Twin ever is Kent Hrbek. Click here to view the article