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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Its impossible to pin 100% of Mauer's decline on any one thing. The concussion might make up a significant portion of it, but it seems reasonable that an expanding strike zone, proliferation of batted ball data, outfield shifts and the like have all conspired against Mauer whose approach is fairly simplistic. He will have to adjust. I'm hopeful that based on the second half of 2015 he is at least figuring out the strike zone again.
  2. Willihammer
    Similar IsoD and ISO but a .030 point difference in BABIP.
  3. Willihammer
    I noticed Walker has just 9 HBPs in 1918 PAs. Compared to say 20 in 1892 for Sano or 25 in 2165 PAs for Morneau (as random examples). Does Walker need to belly up to the plate?
  4. Willihammer
    I have done a complete 180 on Hicks. Initially I thought he was too passive but after the call up it looked to me like he had found the right balance of aggressiveness and patience. His at-bats were very competitive, behind only Mauer, Dozier, and Hunter IMO. He would be my opening day CF and remain there until Buxton and/or Kepler blow the doors off of AAA pitching. I believe Arcia will be in a separate competition with Shane Robinson or some other cheap FA / veteran pickup for the corner job. An outside shot he will compete with Sano there. The Twins will not platoon Hicks nor push Buxton or Kepler to the majors unless forced to by injury which would be the right call on both accounts IMO.
  5. Willihammer
    Yeah anyone who watched that 14 inning affair between the Rangers and Blue Jays - what a showcase of bullpen firepower. Just one 97 mph guy after the next. The Twins are lightyears behind either of those teams.
  6. Willihammer
    Yeah that's another angle to this discussion. As little as we know about Sano's 3B glove, we know even less about his 1B glove.
  7. Willihammer
    http://i.imgur.com/TMdmy.gif
  8. Willihammer
    So, did Hughes' mechanics stay contstant this year? Or did he revert back to drop and drive?
  9. Willihammer
    IMO one every 3-4 games seems reasonable. So 40-50 I would guess. I guess we have different noses.
  10. Willihammer
    Fair enough. I also assumed 100% outs on the 62% figure and 100% hits on the 24% figure which is not going to be the case either. Out of curiosity what do you think is a reasonable spread for total number of balls missed/caught between the worst corner outfielder and the best corner outfielder over ~1300 innings? Assume, for sake of expediency, both fielders see an average distribution of batted balls.
  11. Willihammer
    Heyward seems like a good candidate for an opt-out contract. Guarantee him 7-10 years but give him an opt-out after year 4 to get a 2nd pay day. That is a new element of risk but also seems like a strong chance to pay only for his best years.
  12. Willihammer
    At the risk of derailing the thread, that was never in doubt. The reason that 14% remainder of plays are valued so highly by metrics is that they so often go for extra bases. Over a full season that's ~35 made or un-made plays separating the worst from the best fielders. 35 outfield hits equating to 3-4 wins seems perfectly plausible IMO. I think a lot of fans let their preconceptions of outfield metrics color their judment of Hunter's defense. We can agree Heyward is a very good outfielder. I highly doubt the market will pay him exactly 2.0 dWAR = 15.8M or whatever that value is on the open market. He will get paid mainly for his OBP and his age.
  13. Willihammer
    Upton and Cespedes also hitting FA this winter. edit: Span too
  14. Willihammer
    Heyward is very intriguing. A lot of value is tied up in his defense, maybe that lowers his price tag? Still should command a 9 figure deal easily.
  15. Willihammer
    Twins throw a strike http://i.imgur.com/Ysddbam.gif Rangers throw a strike http://i.imgur.com/mv897Ld.gif Twins throw a strike http://i.imgur.com/RbHTfet.gif?noredirect Rangers throw a strike http://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Epic_646b06_508186.gif
  16. Willihammer
    I read it, and I understand the difference between accuracy and precision. The difference in baseball is that you have a bullseye that moves along the periphery of a rectangular target instead of a conventional circle inside concentric circles which could be more *accurately* used to describe the degree of accuracy. With a strikezone you have to assume the pitcher can control the direction he misses his target in order for the grade to have any meaning. I don't believe there's any evidence that's the case over a large enough sample.
  17. Willihammer
    I'm really not trying to be difficult. There's something I'm not getting across. The control-command distinction suggests to me that a pitcher has a say in the direction he misses his target which seems wrong for a couple reasons. One, even if a pitcher missed to a certain side - say he was opening up early and missing high and to the arm side. That will miss for a strike and miss for a ball depending on where the catcher is setting up and depending on the handedness of the batter. But more likely, IMO, is that the misfires are random in direction and the only consistency is how far away from the target the pitcher misses. And since a catcher always sets up on one corner of the zone (and never outside it) this is almost entirely captured by BB and K rates and can be described simply as "control" or "command" along one scale.
  18. Willihammer
    Again, what if I aim for the same target and hit a bunch of double 17s on the other side of the board while you are hitting single 1s and 5s right around the triple 20. I win, you lose. But who has the better command/control?
  19. Willihammer
    What if the catcher was setting targets under the batter's hands?
  20. Willihammer
    Yeah I know you were. I'm annoyed by it because all I've ever seen the distinction do is introduce an unhelpful level of semantics. If I'm wrong then I'd welcome an example where the distinction is actually useful.
  21. Willihammer
    The distinction implies that pitchers can throw strike after strike after strike and somehow have lousy command and vice versa, throw a ball outside of the zone on purpose but have no control. Its stupid. Does the ball end up where the pitcher is trying to throw it or not? In other words, what are his K and BB rates? 90% of "command" or "control" or whatever you want to call it will be captures by those two stats.
  22. Willihammer
    Its one of those things scouts made up because it makes them feel important. Like the idea of "bat speed." Funny, no one ever considers "bat weight" or "bat length" in that equation. Not to mention swing mechanics. "Control" and "command" are the same thing, you can use both interchangeably.
  23. Willihammer
    Yeah, I think that's the difference. He hasn't been able to command the splitter since early August.
  24. Willihammer
    Buxton's going to need a good long optional assignment in 2016 so I would not trade anyone right now. They'll have room in a corner for Arcia then Kepler if necessary. As for Rosario, Sickels wrote a piece on him last week and said he thinks Rosario's operating at the upper boundary of his talents, based on his rough approach. Its hard to disagree although staying at this boundary would mean we're talking about a 2-3 Win player. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/9/3/9244289/minor-league-ball-mailbag-can-eddie-rosario-of-the-twins-improve Also this if it wasn't posted already. That HR off Josh Tomlin a couple weeks back was remarkable: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-home-run-that-must-be-discussed/
  25. Willihammer
    http://imgur.com/gallery/h1y4r
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