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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    I'm trying to have an optimistic take here. Lee was merely bad in the outfield for a few years. I'd take that from Sano, as opposed to "disastrous" which is probably the only other possibility.
  2. Willihammer
    I was a bit wary on Benintendi truth be told (basically considered him a wash with Jay). But if you look at past Golden Spikes winners, recent ones especially, and it is an impressive list.
  3. Willihammer
    Maybe one ray of hope is the fact that Carlos Lee did not pick up an outfield glove until he broke into the majors either.
  4. Willihammer
    Insert argument about UZR and sample size here.
  5. Willihammer
    The Twins strategy of drafting relievers and making starting pitcher projects out of them was a lot more interesting when they did it in the 3rd round+. But with the #6 overall pick, how much inefficiency can there be? I would have preferred the pitcher of the year (Fulmer) or the Golden Spikes winner (Benintendi), among others. Who knows, maybe it was a coincidence that the player they liked the most when their # was up was a reliever. Anyways I can't rip em too much because Jay was a top 10 talent according to all the major draft publications IIRC. Hopefully the transition goes as planned.
  6. Willihammer
    I bet they get Gurriel or Freese at the 11th hour. Maybe Uribe. 3B is an obvious weak spot and there are so many guys available.
  7. Willihammer
    He had the highest walk rate of any pitcher to throw 120+ IP. He's not going to be a #1 or 2 unless he gets that under control. He's still young, he could turn it around and be the next CC Sabathia. Personally I see Gio Gonzalez as a more likely ceiling. Maybe a floor of Trevor Bauer.
  8. Willihammer
    The Sox have some pretty trashy pitchers on the roster. Matt Albers, Scott Carroll, Danks, Duke, etc. They might score a couple more runs but the pitching looks bleak IMO. Catching is weak, Navarro can't block a pitch to save his soul. Ro-daahn walks too many to be more than a #3. Back end of the rotation could be ugly. Like MN Twins cca 2013 ugly.
  9. Willihammer
    They got Brantley, Kipnis, Santana, and Gomes. Those are 4 pretty good hitters. Almonte is an interesting wildcard, he's pretty dynamic when he's on. The lineup has a couple question marks but they could be okay. The starting pitching and bullpen should keep them in most games. I look for Zimmer as a possible mid-season OF call up if he rakes in AA which he easily could.
  10. Willihammer
    Gardy's the strength and conditioning coach?
  11. Willihammer
    I wish Baseball-reference broke down reliever splits by pitch# into more granular increments. Seems like Perk's stuff played fine against LH and RH hitters for the first 15 pitches or so, then he quickly started hanging sliders and losing velo on his FB, and that's when he got into most of his trouble.
  12. Willihammer
    Graham was the long reliever. Stauffer at the early part of the year. Obviously if the starting staff improves, a lot of this is moot. I hope that's the case but I'm not as optimistic as you about that. I think we need to prepare for a lot of games that don't finish neatlyi with LOOGY, setup, closer, etc. That means flexibility from relievers. That means a lot of lefties facing righties and vice versa. You can only shuttle players to and from AAA so much to compensate for that. And the strength of the org quite clearly is RHRP, not LHRP. So if a LH reliever isn't among the 7 or 8 best relievers, so be it.
  13. Willihammer
    I'm just annoyed with the fixation on being lefthanded. If Chargois or Burdi or Meyer or one of the other RH pitchers can do a better job, overall, they should have the roster spot. That seems like that would be best for the team.
  14. Willihammer
    Cards starters also threw 60 more IP than Twins starters last year. Or the difference of about one full time reliever. I know its technically possible to deploy a strict loogy, on a team with a good starting staff. But that does not describe the Twins and it also comes with tradeoffs (namely, a shorter bench).
  15. Willihammer
    O'Rourke presents the same problem Duensing did. Sure he's good against lefties but he's gonna have to face righties, and he can't get them out. Neither can Rogers actually, at least not as a AAA starter (.830 OPS against). There just isn't enough roster space for a true LOOGY.
  16. Willihammer
    TR mentioned Rogers in his convo with Atteberry on GO last week. I'm ~75% sure it was in reference to the LH relief situation. Did anyone else hear that?
  17. Willihammer
    I learned the hard way that 2 or 3-times daily returns (ie. leveraged) ETFs aren't all they're cracked up to be. For one, they don't usually achieve that, the expenses are high, and volatility kills them. If an index starts at 1000 and after a year returns to 1000, a straightforward ETF/index fund will match but the leveraged ETF will have lost money. You really need to be confident in an unbroken bull/bear run to make money, and I don't know how anyone possibly could be.
  18. Willihammer
    I mean, the addage is, buy low, sell high, right? So how do you people buy stocks with 300+ multiples and not crap yourselves. There is so much expectation of earnings growth already priced into the stock. What calculation are you making that says, "no this stock is STILL cheap?"
  19. Willihammer
    Netflix's has some really good original content. It will only get better and broader as the subscriber base grows, and then they can start ratcheting up the $8.99 price tag which is dirt cheap for the amount consumed. I think I read something like 45% of all internet traffic was Netflix streaming. I know they could charge double and I'd still probably buy it. That said, its already trading at 300+ P/E so who knows if that potential is already priced in.
  20. Willihammer
    IMO the Twins need to sink or swim with the kids. And not Tonkin, Graham, Kintzler, etc. I mean the kids in Seth's top 5.
  21. Willihammer
    The change is good but I cannot shake the images of Clippard choking in the postseason.
  22. Willihammer
    Nice write up. I seem to remember a few Tiant-Cueto comparisons were made during the playoffs last year. Similar, funky windups. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn_FbRkZIvM
  23. Willihammer
    IMO the Tigers are among the top 3 worst run franchises in baseball. They can't construct a bullpen to save their souls. K-rod? He's 34, can't crack 90 mph barely. He is gonna get smoked in any playoff situation just like Nathan and Valverde and Dotel and Coke and all the other "proven" geezers before him. Relief pitching is a young man's game and the Tigers are going the wrong way, fast. There might be a year or two where Verlander, Upton, Zimmerman and Cabrera and JD Martinez can keep them around 2nd place but that is a best case scenario IMO. Too many injury and decline possibilities on the roster with no youth ready to step up. They have really screwed themselves there. I'd put the over under at 74 wins again. Same as last year.
  24. Willihammer
    If you missed it (this program started at the beginning of the year I think), might be work checking out: http://www.selfrefi.state.mn.us/ 4.5% refi rates.
  25. Willihammer
    I read A Random Walk Down Wall St. about a year ago and that has guided my retirement investing since. All passive, mostly foreign, no individual stocks. My returns are down as bad or worse than anyone's but its a good read nonetheless if anyone out without a finance degree is thinking about socking away some money for a while.
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