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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    Well the caveat is "all else being equal." You wouldn't bat Castro in front of Dozier just because he's LH. But you wouldn't swap Park for Mauer against a RH starter just to break up Kepler and Rosario. Even if the opposition brings in a LOOGY later on you only traded one PA versus what, two, three against the starting pitcher?
  2. Willihammer
    From an individual perspective there are costs too. How do you split up 3 lefties? Either bump them up, down, or take one of them out of the order altogether. Two out of three choices will reduce the number of PAs against RH starters. Since most starters are RH and most bullpen arms are RH too. If anything I would assume the overall impact of conventional L-R-L-R staggering is to decrease OPS, not increase it.
  3. Willihammer
    Of course they *might* suffer later in the game but they will score more runs early in games (assuming the starter is opposite-handed) over time, all else being equal. The other thing is, conventional bullpen managment says to save your best relievers for leads, particularly when on the road. Take a tie game or +1 lead into the 7th and you might never have to worry about facing a lefty or, at least, not the best lefty in some cases.
  4. Willihammer
    Yeah. If healthy, I still like him to hit .775-.800. But he's gotta stay healthy!
  5. Willihammer
    IMO everyone after Pressly and Rogers is suspect. But Rogers is solid.
  6. Willihammer
    Interesting. I would have guessed more followed the Joe Nathan / Glen Perkins path of failed starterdom. Maybe taking him out of the rotation now isn't cause for concern as far as Jay's prospects of being a good reliever go after all.
  7. Willihammer
    Question- can anyone name a dominant bullpen arm that did not advance to at least AAA as a starting pitcher?
  8. Willihammer
    This team could trim off 100 runs with improved pitching and defense and still only be ~25th in baseball in runs allowed. They're gonna have to mash to be competitive. They hit 200 homers last year. Can they top that? Can they cut down on the K's?
  9. Willihammer
    Saying Buxton has a Torii Hunter floor is really not fair, to Buxton or Hunter.
  10. Willihammer
    Article on Yoan Moncada from last week. http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/18975183/chicago-white-sox-prospect-yoan-moncada-prepping-major-league-debut
  11. Willihammer
    Cool videos! Thorpe's definitely got pitches. Looked like he had the changeup working best in that outing.
  12. Willihammer
    I still think this team should advance to the Western conference finals. They're not this bad.
  13. Willihammer
    http://www.cnn.com/2017/02/03/politics/donald-trump-approval-rating/ This is going to be the most ineffectual administration of the last 50+ years. No president has come into office with less political capital, and its only going to go down, barring (god-forbid) another 9/11 type event.
  14. Willihammer
    Immediate raises in 2017-2018, maybe one FA year guaranteed and 2+ option years, discounted for risk. Something like 8/45 for Buxton and Sano with 20m of that being the final two option years. I'd offer Pressly the same deal the Astros and Will Harris agreed to: 2yr/5m guaranteed with a $6.5m 2019 option that includes an incentive. Maybe try to add a 2020 option also.
  15. Willihammer
    In Brock's scenario you get Pressly up same time as you would otherwise. After the first baserunner gets into scoring position probably. So, if the next batter doesn't load the bases, but hits an RBI double, the score's now -2 but the high leverage guy Pressly's already warming. He pitches, but the lineup changes to -2 until the score changes again. Play the odds. A runner on second base is going to need, on average, 2-3 batters to step to the plate before someone gets a hit. About a quarter of the time the first guy will get him in.
  16. Willihammer
    Not even Pressly?
  17. Willihammer
    I won't speak for Brock but what I'd do is use score as proxy for leverage. Tie game being the highest, +1 next, -1, next, and so on. With a "lineup" for each score. Pressly and Rogers are #1 and 2 respectively in a tie or +1 score. Double barreled warm up with whoever matches up to batter handedness entering first. This is assuming the opponent is a conventional L-R-L-R lineup and not heavily platooned against the starter. In that event keep the opposite handed guy on the bench obviously. In a +/- 3 run game, ie. low leverage, the lineup would be virtually flip flopped. With Belisle or Tonkin first out of the gate. Basically, pitch to the score.
  18. Willihammer
    Trump- what an amazing dealmaker! He's like a dealmaking guru. Maybe after office he can, I dunno, write a book about how he does it.
  19. Willihammer
    Its extension season. The Twins are pot committed already to Sano (top international signee of the last decade, no backup at third base for forseeable fu ture) and Buxton (#2 draft choice and best outfield defender in the org, fastest baserunner). What value is there to waiting? If they bust the Twins will have to tear down and rebuild again anyways. The cost of doing that is minimized by stricter international and rule 4 draft bonus pool rules. Plus, by committing to the "new core" maybe the culture change Falvine want so badly will happen organically, and more quickly. By delaying that commitment the Twins will remain Mauer's and Hughesy's team. I would also extend Pressly and May (for a huge discount) who will both be arb 1 guys next winter.
  20. Willihammer
    Only 5? We're comin!
  21. Willihammer
    IIRC that was a special trade deadline for the A's. Milone was pushed out of the rotation and even though he had options he was due an Arb 1 raise which of course is real money for almost nobody except the A's. Maybe the Rays, Orioles, or Pirates too. So for me its hard to imagine the Twins getting a similar cost controlled Arb 1 or 2 player from anyone else, and at least one of those teams (the Pirates) is pretty stacked outfield wise. Plus, do we even want another Tommy Milone? Grossman's decent insurance in the event Rosario or Kepler struggles, and if he blindsides us with a Ryan Rayburn like first half maybe someone like the Astros or Cardinals would offer real value. But I wouldn't 'plan' the season out that way. Rosario and Kepler both have much higher upside IMO.
  22. Willihammer
    Timing is a fool's game I know but it really seems like this latest run-up was built on political hopes and dreams that seem unlikely to materialize. I'm saving as much cash as I can afford to.
  23. Willihammer
    http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/e9/e965339ef2f7ec69cd723354f029a41d30c64e75d91374cb6f7900631386feaa.jpg
  24. Willihammer
    Yeah I think the 3/4 upside projections are premature. Berrios has the best stuff to come down the pipe in a long time.
  25. Willihammer
    Chargois' spring: 8.1 IP, 16H, 2HR, 3 BB, 2HBP, 8 K.
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