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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    IMO the Twins need to sink or swim with the kids. And not Tonkin, Graham, Kintzler, etc. I mean the kids in Seth's top 5.
  2. Willihammer
    The change is good but I cannot shake the images of Clippard choking in the postseason.
  3. Willihammer
    Nice write up. I seem to remember a few Tiant-Cueto comparisons were made during the playoffs last year. Similar, funky windups. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nn_FbRkZIvM
  4. Willihammer
    IMO the Tigers are among the top 3 worst run franchises in baseball. They can't construct a bullpen to save their souls. K-rod? He's 34, can't crack 90 mph barely. He is gonna get smoked in any playoff situation just like Nathan and Valverde and Dotel and Coke and all the other "proven" geezers before him. Relief pitching is a young man's game and the Tigers are going the wrong way, fast. There might be a year or two where Verlander, Upton, Zimmerman and Cabrera and JD Martinez can keep them around 2nd place but that is a best case scenario IMO. Too many injury and decline possibilities on the roster with no youth ready to step up. They have really screwed themselves there. I'd put the over under at 74 wins again. Same as last year.
  5. Willihammer
    If you missed it (this program started at the beginning of the year I think), might be work checking out: http://www.selfrefi.state.mn.us/ 4.5% refi rates.
  6. Willihammer
    I read A Random Walk Down Wall St. about a year ago and that has guided my retirement investing since. All passive, mostly foreign, no individual stocks. My returns are down as bad or worse than anyone's but its a good read nonetheless if anyone out without a finance degree is thinking about socking away some money for a while.
  7. Willihammer
    Kinda seems like Perk blames Molitor for his ineffectiveness in the 2nd half. Not, oh I dunno, the declining velo or his bum neck or back. I wonder what May or Jepsen's comments would be on Molitor's decision to open up the 9th inning to other players. Disappointed that Molitor has bent over. I really hoped he would be the guy to break the mold but alas, he seems to be taking the Gardy path of least resistance and veteran coddling.
  8. Willihammer
    Those are good points. It seems weird to think of catchers as sort of the positional equivalent of relief pitchers, because we tend to think there is so much more to the job, but it makes some sense. The best bats are often moved out of the position.
  9. Willihammer
    Mauer is considered a catcher because that's the position he's played the most games at. Its the position he was drafted for and developed to play and its the position he'd still be playing if not for the concussions. I don't know what to tell you about Ernie Banks. Its clear you aren't familiar with WAR. There is a positional adjustment. For fWAR there is a +12.5 run adjustment for catchers over 162 games, and -12.5 run adjustment for first basemen. So your concern about WAR overvaluing a part-time catcher is not really warranted. WAR will be benefit/penalize Mauer accordingly in seasons (games?) where he caught or played first. So even after these decline phase years at first base, Mauer still ranks among the best players whose primary position was catcher, on a WAR/162 basis. Admittedly this was written in Jul 2014 so he probably isn't ranked at #1 anymore. But then you get into a separate question of, why should short-but-great players like Koufax and Puckett make the hall but someone who plays longer at a declining level, not make it? The most interesting question to me, even besides Mauer's HoF case, is why isn't there a single catcher among the 45 greatest players by WAR/162?
  10. Willihammer
    If you're referring to the BillJamesonline.com article, the author used WAR/162 for that reason. Catchers still come up short.
  11. Willihammer
    1. Obviously no Twins fan has a personal hatred for Mauer or anyone else on the team (possible exception of Halsey and Plouffe). 2. Nobody said WAR should be the only stat. But, WAR is commonly used as a starting point for evaluating the HoF credentials of a player and it is the object of the article. WAR is the most elegant stat out there for capturing career output. But, curiously, it doesn't value a single catcher in the history of the game amongst the top ~ 45 elite players of all time. 3. As somewhat of a sidenote, on a WAR/162 basis, Mauer is the greatest catcher of all time. 4. Given #2, how should Mauer's (or any other catcher's) HoF case be considered? One option might be to abandon WAR completely in favor of another stat or more likely, combination of stats. Another option would be to re-adjust the positional component of WAR so that the elite catchers of history are valued similarly to the elite players at other positions.
  12. Willihammer
    Would anyone be surprised if Perkins hit the 60 day DL again in 2016 or 2017? He had a neck thing and an arm thing in 2015 IIRC. He is getting old, the velo isn't there as much. Shlubby. I'd definitely plan on him tailing off over the next 3 years. Re: Bastardo - Full picture - he had 8 WPs last year in 57 IP. 20 in the 216 IP before that. That's a lot. By comparison, Kyle Gibson had 7 in almost 200 IP and we all know how he can lose command at times. I love strikeouts and I'd take Bastardo on a 2 year deal but you would have to concede that he will move runners along the bases in crucial moments a couple times each year.
  13. Willihammer
    Reason not to sign Bastardo? He can't get lefties out
  14. Willihammer
    Great read. I'd be very curious to hear from the Mauer-haters out there any theories as to why the best catchers in history, by WAR, don't stack up at all against the best players of other positions (by WAR). And if WAR is broken, what alternative metric(s) should be used when considering HoF credentials for catchers.
  15. Willihammer
    One school of thought is that a HoF should have an MVP type 7 year peak, combined with overall career totals that meet certain milestones. He probably has a peak in the bank already, so he just needs to pad his career totals, esp. WAR. And the trend towards the public (and I assume the BBWAA will follow) emphasizing WAR over hits, HR, etc is another reason that delaying his eligibility would probably help his case IMO, since there's no way he reaches those. But, he's 33 with 45 rWAR. Finishing somewhere around 55-65 WAR seems possible if he rebounds.
  16. Willihammer
    One guy I would put money on to regress is Kevin Jepsen. In the half-season he iptched for us he posted career bests in FIP, LOB%, WHIP, ERA, K/BB, etc.
  17. Willihammer
    Why haven't the Twins extended Sano yet?
  18. Willihammer
    Agree. IMO people make way too much of Dozier's pull tendencies. Pulled balls tend to be harder hit, tend to go for more xbhs (a category Dozier finished highly in). I'd say Dozier's biggest flaw is popping up too many balls. Otherwise his approach is damn near flawless IMHO.
  19. Willihammer
    I guess I had forgotten how vicious Bonds' swing was. That follow through!
  20. Willihammer
    That is incredible. But the Gameday graph tells the other side of the story, with an 0-1 swing at a sinker below the knees. The 46% OOZ swing rate is ridiculous. So much room to improve there. He could be a really good player if he does.
  21. Willihammer
    One LHP who showed up on MLBTR's non-tender candidate list that caught my eye is Marc Rzepczynski. 30 years old, career .215/.285/.288 vs LHBs. The Padres gave up Abraham Almonte for him, who did well with the Tribe but was more of a journeyman/backup before the trade. Maybe the Twins could get Rzepczynski for Nunez or Fien?
  22. Willihammer
    This isn't a very sabermetric answer but I've seen Thornton meltdown against the Twins in big games for the Sox so I wouldn't want him on the roster if I had WS ambitions. edit: Thornton is also 39 and doesn't strike anyone out so there's a more sabermetric / rational objection.
  23. Willihammer
    Maybe they still plan to sign a FA catcher. They lose control over the following catchers this winter: Fryer Pinto Herrmann (traded) Paulino One or more of those could re-sign as minor league FA's but right now it looks like there's a hole in AAA that Murphy could fill nicely in 2016 for the first half at least.
  24. Willihammer
    Murphy has 1 or maybe 2 options remaining, correct? Whereas they burned Hicks' final option last season. If that's the case the trade gives them some flexibility to bring in another catcher in 2016 and/or recall Buxton and Kepler more freely without exposing anyone to waivers or DL-ing anyone (like Hicks).
  25. Willihammer
    Eh-hem http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/2/files/2014/06/mlb-minnesota-twins-boston-red-sox-850x560.jpg
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