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Willihammer

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Everything posted by Willihammer

  1. Willihammer
    re: Molitor ejection There's also the possibility, maybe a small one, that Hicks goes all Hunter and gets himself tossed. Then you're out a CF instead of a manager (or both a CF and a manager). It was a big spot and a critical call and one Molitor should have been all over IMO.
  2. Willihammer
    Time to resurrect the changeup?
  3. Willihammer
    Oops, good catch. That's what happens when you control+f in the middle of a page.
  4. Willihammer
    FWIW evidently BA had Hoffman #33 on their midseason list (Berrios not in top 50). I don't think Kohl Stewart is in the same conversation with either of those guys.
  5. Willihammer
    Fair enough. perhaps my perception of him was inflated, I thought he still had the upside of the ace people saw in him before the draft. Adjusting for TJS of course. Evidently that has changed or he has slipped for some reason.
  6. Willihammer
    Don't you want to see what Reyes is flipped for first? Perhaps the Rockies get another top 100 prospect before the deadline.
  7. Willihammer
    Is Kiley the be all end all authority on prospect evaluation?
  8. Willihammer
    Uh... they haven't tried Pelfrey in the pen yet. they haven't tried Berrios or Dufffey or Rogers in the pen yet. Pitching is pitching, and its a team game. Save resources, move guys into different roles. Same might even go for the SS hole. Its amazing to me that the Twins can be so wildly flexible about putting infielders in the outfield but don't seem to have considered putting Dozier back at SS. His defense was disproportionately penalized by a couple of high-profile gaffes in 2012 but overall, it really wasn't that bad. He's every bit as athletic as Escobar. Get him back at SS, and bring up Polanco to play 2B. At least its worth a shot. Even at C - has anyone else noticed Eric Fryer sitting among the top framers at baseball prospectus? He still may not have enough bat but maybe he should be catching a greater share of games. Unless/until the Twins exhaust some of these options it seems premature to ship away talent.
  9. Willihammer
    He's on pace for 4.5 Wins and it shows. With the exception of the broken arm (no lingering effects evidently) he has been healthy and productive for quite a while now. An extension? For the right price, I think you have to consider buying out 1-2 FA years. He's a bit old but the health record is a point in his favor.
  10. Willihammer
    Seems like a crackpot theory IMO but for sake of argument, say its true. The cost of setting back Berrios' workload in 2016 to ~150 IP (instead of ~170) seems like a reasonable tradeoff compared to trading away players, doesn't it? There are costs with any approach but from where I'm standing, promoting from within always looks like the best bargain.
  11. Willihammer
    This seems to be accepted thought by a lot of fans but I just don't get it. If they're going to add Berrios to the roster in a month anyway, why wait? Is missing 4-5 August starts in AAA really going to delay his development that much? Seems dubious IMO.
  12. Willihammer
    They aren't perfect comparisons contract-wise, I'm establishing a downside as a counter-example to your Beltran example (20 WAR in age 31-35 seasons). Tex is at 14.7 with a half season left. That's still reasonable but doesn't leave much (if any) room for surplus value after factoring in the 95m he's owed. In a way, just unloading the wrong half of any big contract should be a fair enough deal for the seller. Adding prospects or MLB players on top and it becomes a no-go if I'm buying.
  13. Willihammer
    I agree, but IMO one of Berrios or Gibson is too much. As a counter-example, I'd submit Joe Mauer who came off an .880 season at age 30. Which side of that trade would you rather be on? Teixeira would be another example.
  14. Willihammer
    Maybe they're not, who knows for sure. They are just rumors. That doesn't really change my overall point about targeting players who are cost-controlled for 2+ years as opposed to a rental (or decline phase guy like Tulo).
  15. Willihammer
    Both players have shown up on MLBTR, and they both play positions of need for the Twins, that's the only reason I mention them specifically. Tulo would be more of an all-in move IMO, with more of a long term "obligation" rather than a long-term "upside," like there would be trading for someone on the upswing of his career.
  16. Willihammer
    These trade threads always seem to reduce into oversimplifications where the only possibilities are: 1. "All-in" trade of prospects for a big-name rental 2. Sell the vets for prospects as per rebuild There's a third trade type that helps in the near and mid-/long- term. Eg. the Phillies trade for 2 1/2 years of Pence in 2011 or the O's trade for 2 1/2 years of Bud Norris in 2013. This is the type of deal the Twins should be exploring IMO. A trade for Gausman or Brad Miller would fit the bill, as examples.
  17. Willihammer
    Per MLBTR, Brad Miller and Alexei Ramirez might also be on the trade block. Anyone? Personally I'd love to get Miller.for the right price (career .744 OPS against RHP).
  18. Willihammer
    A while back Cameron wrote an article about the trade value of Tulo and basically he said "yeah he'll miss 30-50 games/year but he'll still be worth many WARs when healthy." I'm not a doctor (shocker) but I don't think that's how health and degeneration works. In my experience, the human body doesn't just reset after 15 or 60 days rest. Especially after something like a groin surgery (which Tulo has had) or a hip surgery or a rotator cuff strain (which he's also had). The full list is here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46724. More likely is that these body parts are never quite the same and you kind of favor them. And you slow down favoring them, and sometimes you wind up hurting other parts in the process.
  19. Willihammer
    And yet, the fantasy-league type proposals made on these boards aren't that far off from actual trade negotiations between GM's. Lucas Giolito for Lucas Harrell was an actual proposal by Luhnow last year.
  20. Willihammer
    I'm with you there. Lucky or unlucky, the Twins 50 wins are banked and now they have a real shot. Its possible to trade prospects for a player that helps in the near and mid-term, but Tulo's not that guy IMO.
  21. Willihammer
    Stopped eating dairy. The guy who can't stay off the DL cut milk out of his diet. Good luck with that, Tulo.
  22. Willihammer
    I hate to break it to you but both Mauer and Perkins are under long term contract.
  23. Willihammer
    Its hard to imagine a better candidate in all of baseball turning into an albatross in the next 1-2 years. All the red flags are there (injury history, declining power, increasing K's, etc). He couldn't stay on the field in his 20s. I'd wager his 30s will only get worse.
  24. Willihammer
    No no no no no. I'm not even that high on Gibson but that would be a horrible deal.
  25. Willihammer
    You don't have to convince me, I'm the one who suggested trading Buxton. Which SP(s) would you trade?
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