Nick Nelson

I'm on board with this. As long as the QO sticks around, the Twins will be in solid position.

I'm not sure you'd have to go that high because his earning potential over the next couple seasons is so limited. He's not even arb eligible until 2020. Would a structure like this make sense? Maybe the last couple years are team options, a la Kluber/Carrasco? 2019: $1.5M (he'd be making 500k otherwise) 2020: $5.5M 2021: $9M 2022: $12M 2023: $14M 2024: $16M 2025: $16M That's 7 years, $74 million and seems pretty reasonable to me, especially if there are incentives that can boost his earnings based on performance. I wonder if the uncertainty of the free agent market would make a young player and his agent more open to something like this, too.

It's a great question. I thought about touching on that here but it's not really the same discussion. I wonder what kind of extension would make sense for both sides. Probably deserving of its own article.

The Cleveland Indians are rolling toward a third straight division title, and once again, they're doing it on the strength of elite starting pitching. Here's what's scary: Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, the duo that has powered this unit ever since Cleveland's return to relevance in 2014, both remain under control for years to come, and at extremely reasonable rates. It's safe to say the wizardry performed by Cleveland's front office hasn't gone unnoticed by Derek Falvey. After all, he was part of the group that orchestrated those brilliant contracts. Image courtesy of David Richard, USA Today The Cleveland Indians are rolling toward a third straight division title, and once again, they're doing it on the strength of elite starting pitching. Here's what's scary: Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, the duo that has powered this unit ever since Cleveland's return to relevance in 2014, both remain under control for years to come, and at extremely reasonable rates. It's safe to say the wizardry performed by Cleveland's front office hasn't gone unnoticed by Derek Falvey. After all, he was part of the group that orchestrated those brilliant contracts. In a letter to season-ticket holders, Falvey used a familiar term when rationalizing the club's deadline fire-sale, referencing a desire to "achieve sustainable championship-caliber baseball." Admittedly, it sounds like the usual jargon of front office types trying to soothe an agitated fanbase amidst tumultuous times, but... Falvey is a bit of an authority on the subject. He was a key fixture in Cleveland's front office when the Indians struck long-term deals with Kluber (a five-year, $38.5 million extension) and Carrasco (four years, $22 million) on the same weekend in April of 2015. Kluber was four years away from free agency, Carrasco three. The figures listed above don't fully convey the beauty of these incredibly team-friendly contracts, both of which include a pair of economical team option years. Although Carrasco's guaranteed term expires after this year, Cleveland can bring him back for $9 million in 2019 and $9.5 million 2020. Given that the 31-year-old is once again performing at an exemplary level, those decisions are looking like no-brainers. The same is true for Kluber's options in 2020 ($13.5M) and 2021 ($14M). A two-time (so far) Cy Young winner making Ricky Nolasco-type money. Wow. Granted, the salaries for both players can escalate based on Cy Young finishes, but either way we are talking about unbelievably favorable pacts for the club, which set itself up for inexpensive prolonged control if the starters fulfilled their promise (as they have), with escape valves if things went awry. In retrospect, these contracts almost seem too good to be true. But they speak to the powerful value of long-term security for a young and somewhat unestablished major-league pitcher. It's not like Kluber or Carrasco were leveraged all that much; the former was coming off a Cy Young season in 2014, and the latter had broken out with a 2.55 ERA in 134 frames. But when you've earned relatively little, and you know you're one elbow pinch away from everything changing, the prospect of many millions in guaranteed money can be very alluring. Which brings us back to Mr. Falvey, and his current position overseeing baseball operations for the Minnesota Twins. He now finds himself with another rising frontline arm in Jose Berrios. Like Cleveland, Minnesota faces finite payroll constraints. Maintaining a reasonable price tag on core pieces like Berrios is critical in the "sustainable championship-caliber baseball" framework, and it's why those savvy extensions for Kluber and Carrasco are such critical ingredients in Cleveland's ongoing supremacy. Berrios is under team control for four more seasons after this one. The Twins have almost no hope of a striking deal with him quite as favorable as those of Kluber and Carrasco – both late bloomers who followed winding paths to stardom. Berrios is a 24-year-old All-Star with an impeccable record of health; needless to say, it'll be tougher to impress upon him the downside of holding steady and betting on himself. But that downside exists. He and his agent both know it. No one is invincible. With free agency still so far away, the Twins have enough leverage to work out a mutually beneficial deal that locks up Berrios into his 30s while still giving the team some protection. I really like the makeup of those Kluber/Carrasco contracts – the team option years are fairly cheap but in both cases can be increased up to $4 million by Cy Young finishes, bringing them closer to market value. So in a way, the pitchers still were able to bet on themselves, and remain highly incentivized to keep improving. I don't believe Berrios needs that incentive. But, knowing what I know about him, I think he'd embrace it. Whatever the terms, Minnesota would be very wise to make an extension for Berrios their No.1 priority for the offseason. Obviously, that'll mean loosening their stance after they reportedly tried and came short last winter. But a rotation building block is worth his weight in gold. No one needs to tell Derek Falvey that. View full article

I just noticed that for some reason none of the links made it into the original version of this post. Apologies to the authors whose work was cited. They've now been added.

In many ways, the three are nothing alike. Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly – all sent packing in deadline deals as the Twins pulled off their most unequivocal midseason 'sell' in memory – have their own distinct profiles and personalities. Each came to Minnesota by different (modest) means: Dozier an eighth-round draft pick, Escobar a nondescript trade return for Francisco Liriano, Pressly a Rule 5 addition. But the trio does have this much in the common: none were supposed to be this good. Image courtesy of Dan Hamilton and Orlando Ramirez, USA TODAY Sports In many ways, the three are nothing alike. Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly – all sent packing in deadline deals as the Twins pulled off their most unequivocal midseason 'sell' in memory – have their own distinct profiles and personalities. Each came to Minnesota by different (modest) means: Dozier an eighth-round draft pick, Escobar a nondescript trade return for Francisco Liriano, Pressly a Rule 5 addition. But the trio does have this much in the common: none were supposed to be this good. While rising through the minors, these three now-former Twins never graced the higher ends of top prospect lists. Each has his own rags-to-riches backstory that should inspire any underdog out there toiling away in perpetuity. Let's run through a quick retrospective on each. BRIAN DOZIER'S TRANSFORMATION FROM TWEENER TO TREASURE If it seemed like Dozier always had a bit of a chip on his shoulder, who could blame him? Back in 2009, he fell to the eighth round of the draft despite a prolific collegiate career at Southern Miss. "Scouts saw Dozier's tools as average in most respects and he was generally projected as a utility player or strong organizational talent," recalls John Sickels. During his first few years as a pro, Dozier looked the part. To give you an idea of how he was viewed in 2011, Seth had him ranked as the 44th-best Twins prospect. Dozier's stock rose that summer with a strong showing between Fort Myers and New Britain, but he was still hardly viewed as a top-tier talent by the time he reached Minnesota in 2012. Alas, three years later he was an All-Star. Then in 2016 he set the all-time AL record for home runs by a second baseman. And from '14 through '17 he produced the 13th-most WAR among all hitters in baseball. Good ol' No. 2 departs as an indelible figure in franchise lore. In his book, The Big 50: The Men and Moments that Made the Minnesota Twins (which I highly recommend), Aaron Gleeman ranked Dozier as the 30th-best player in the team history, calling him "literally the only slugging second baseman in the history of the Twins." It must've been a surreal chapter for my guy AG to write, five years after profiling Dozier as a prospect and dinging the infielder's "iffy" power potential and shaky defense at shortstop. "Even as a singles-hitting second baseman Dozier would be plenty useful," Gleeman had noted. Now, this is not by any means meant to drag Aaron, because I viewed Dozier the same way at that point and so did most others. The guy had hit 14 total home runs in 317 minor-league games. But through steady work, and the honing of a mousetrap-like swing, Dozier developed into one of the game's most deadly pull hitters, joining Harmon Killebrew in the ranks of Minnesota single-season home run royalty. It took Dozier 126 games to hit his first professional home run. It took him one to launch his first as a Los Angeles Dodger. In the context of his unlikely ascent, a glorious sight to behold: https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1024861260452716544 EDUARDO ESCOBAR'S CAREER THAT ALMOST WASN'T Back in June, Mike Berardino wrote a great story in the Pioneer Press recounting Ozzie Guillen's discovery of Escobar on a back field in Tucson 10 years ago. At the time, Escobar was a scrawny 19-year-old backup shortstop, on the verge of being released. As the story goes, a highly impressed Guillen went to bat for him with Kenny Williams, and persuaded the general manager to give Escobar a real shot. The young infielder would go on to glance the fringe of Baseball Prospectus' Top 101 list in 2011, at No. 91, his only appearance in any prominent national rankings. Around the same time, Minor League Ball pegged him as the seventh-best talent in the White Sox system: "Great glove," wrote Sickels, "but will he hit enough for it to be relevant?" The Venezuela native made his big-league debut that season, then played sporadically over the first half of 2012 before being shipped to Minnesota alongside fellow countryman Pedro Hernandez for two months of Liriano (the bad version). Escobar posted a meager .628 OPS in his first full season with the Twins, resembling very much the no-bat utility man of billing. Then in 2014, out of nowhere, he hit 35 doubles. And in 2015 he added 31 more, plus 12 bombs. Last year Escobar clubbed 21 home runs and this year he leads baseball in doubles. His defense has deteriorated and he's no longer really viable at short, but now, he's hitting enough to make that irrelevant. RYAN PRESSLY POWERS UP Midway through the 2012 season, Pressly's fledgling career was at risk of running off the rails. The former 11th-round pick was taking his second shot at the High-A Carolina League at age 23, and floundering with a 6.28 ERA through 76 innings. In July, Ben Cherington's Red Sox made a decision that looks outrageously savvy in retrospect: they promoted Pressly to Double-A, despite his immense struggles, and converted him to full-time relief duties. Pressly turned in a 2.93 ERA over 28 innings the rest of the way, although it came with a modest 6.8 K/9 rate. He'd go on to post an 18-to-1 K/BB ratio in the Arizona Fall League, and that was all the Twins needed to see. They took him in the Rule 5 draft after three other teams passed him up. "He's always had a good arm," acknowledged Boston's scouting director Jared Porter at the time. "He's got good stuff." Of course, the arm and stuff weren't deemed good enough to warrant a 40-man roster spot, which is why the Twins were able to snag Pressly away. Porter surely didn't envision how far along that arsenal would come over the next five years. During his first season with the Twins, Pressly wasn't an especially impressive reliever, posting mediocre strikeout and walk rates with a so-so FB/CB combo. But with each successive season, the righty added velocity and learned to harness his innate ability to spin the ball, with results following suit. In six MLB campaigns his swinging strike rate has gone from 7.8% to 8.5% to 9.0% to 11.7% to 12.2% to 17.6%. He's now in elite range, with that 2018 mark ranking as the fifth-best in baseball, and this made Pressly a hot commodity – the most coveted of pieces sold by Minnesota at the deadline, netting the organization a legitimate top prospect in Jorge Alcala. Who would've guessed it when he was a middling 23-year-old starter in Single-A? LESSONS LEARNED What's the point of these look-backs? Well, for one, it's nice to reflect on three of the most unlikely and inspiring Twins careers in recent memory. But also, I think it's instructive. No, the prospect bounty yielded by Minnesota's array of deadline trades wouldn't be considered top-tier. Outside of Alcala, none of the players received really have much hype beyond the occasional advocate or prospect hound. But neither did Dozier, or Escobar, or Pressly. In fact, Escobar came over in a deal quite similar to several just now orchestrated by Minnesota — a package of unheralded minor-leaguers acquired in for a two-month rental. So as we look at the collective talent amassed during the front office's deadline purge, we'd do well to keep these case studies in mind. View full article

Fair enough, although Rooker has a 25% K rate since the start of June and the Southern League average is 23% so I'm not sure I'd really deem that "contact issues" for a power hitter. Given that his approach has developed so rapidly and he already turns 24 in November I'm fine with pushing him and challenging him. I dunno how much value he'll get out of spending time in AAA. I'm on board with that and would like to see Austin up as well. I just don't necessarily think the fact he's not here presently, while Morrison is, demonstrates that the Twins aren't looking ahead.

Rogers has (by far) the most appearances for MN over the past three years of anyone on the roster, and currently owns a 2.62 FIP as well as career bests in WHIP, HR rate and K rate. He'll be fairly cheap in 2019. He's a core building block in this bullpen and a total lock. You may be right on Moya, but I'd sure like to think he'll be in. The guy can pitch and has nothing else to prove in the minors. I think we're getting a little impatient on Austin. He's been in the org for like a week and it's not like he's been outrageously dominant in Triple-A. While I know everyone's disenchanted with Morrison, the Twins do have a reasonable option on him for 2019. Are you saying even if he turns it on with a monster final two months, you'd be totally opposed to exploring that route? He does have 5 HR in his last 16 games... Treating Austin as some sort of guaranteed upgrade strikes me as symptomatic of a "grass is always greener" mentality.

I'm not sure I see an "overhaul" as necessary — they've basically got their core for next year in place with Hildenberger, Rogers, Reed, Moya, May, and (I guess) Rodney. But it sure would be helpful to audition a few others and evaluate the substantive depth. Ah yes. He always manages to slip my mind. So May is crowded out of that picture all the more.

The Twins roster looked very different by the time Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline arrived, with one-fifth of its occupants shipped out in a flurry of future-focused deals. The exodus included three of Minnesota's longest-tenured players. Now, the team forges ahead with a different look. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA TODAY Sports The Twins roster looked very different by the time Tuesday's non-waiver trade deadline arrived, with one-fifth of its occupants shipped out in a flurry of future-focused deals. The exodus included three of Minnesota's longest-tenured players. Now, the team forges ahead with a different look. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/30 through Sun, 8/5 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 52-58) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: -17) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.0 GB) After trading away Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly the previous week, the Twins completed their mini fire-sale as the deadline bore down, adding Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn and Zach Duke to the departing ranks. As a result of all this shuffling, Minnesota brought a number of new young talents into the organization, while shifting their gaze over the final two months to evaluation of remaining assets. These "Week in Review" columns will continue to track the team's record and run differential, but going forward, the tone will be dictated more by developments with those key players than by wins and losses. And through that lens, the past week was a pretty encouraging one. HIGHLIGHTS We're still waiting for Miguel Sano to hit one over the fence (his last home run as a big-leaguer came on May 31st) but he's certainly looking much better at the plate. Last week he went 8-for-20 with three doubles and a 6-to-3 K/BB ratio. Perhaps more importantly, Sano has looked spry at third base (where he's made all but one of his starts since the recall, after frequently bouncing to first base and DH earlier in the season) and is running a lot better; I found this tidbit from MLB report Jarrid Denney, tweeted when Sano legged out an infield single on Friday night, rather interesting: https://twitter.com/jarrid_denney/status/1025590630054092801 Initial results suggest that Sano's physical reboot program in Ft. Myers was a real success. Let's keep the positive signs coming. Sano's nearest infield neighbor is also looking quite sharp. Jorge Polanco went 7-for-23 this week while starting at shortstop and batting third in every game. Over 29 contests since returning to the fold following a PED suspension, Polanco has a 25-to-13 K/BB ratio and .369 OBP over 122 plate appearances. While the power that emerged in the second half last year hasn't resurfaced, it's very promising to see the 25-year-old taking quality ABs and getting on base. He has also been strikingly good defensively, keeping the errors in check and rating better than ever before on range metrics (albeit in an extremely small sample). With Dozier gone and Joe Mauer set to become a free agent, it's anyone's guess what the right side of Minnesota's infield will look like in 2019, but at least we can feel fairly confident at this moment in the outlook for the left side. Another key piece for the future, Adalberto Mejia, asserted that he belongs in the big-league rotation on Wednesday by holding Cleveland scoreless on one hit over five innings. His only Twins appearance in the first half came amidst unfavorable circumstances on a sweltering weekend at Wrigley Field where the whole team melted into a puddle. In three appearances since, Mejia has allowed only one run over 13 1/3 innings (0.68 ERA). The key for him the rest of the way will be efficiency on the mound; he hasn't completed six innings in any of his MLB three starts this year, and did so just four times in 21 turns last year. If he can consistently throw deeper into games over his final ~10 starts while continuing to post solid numbers, there's no reason why Mejia shouldn't be locked into a rotation spot next spring. With Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson and Jake Odorizzi in line to return, and with Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves and others waiting in the wings, the Twins are theoretically pretty well set on starting pitchers moving forward. That'd leave Trevor May as an odd man out, but he can sure help the club elsewhere and showed it over the weekend. After shaking off the cobwebs in a shaky 2018 debut on Tuesday, May was a dominant force in his follow-up on Friday. The righty complemented a mid-90s fastball with a hard, biting slider and blew Kansas City hitters away in his one inning, as he struck out the side and tallied six whiffs on 17 pitches. On Sunday, he notched a critical strikeout to strand two runners in the eighth. May's been out of sight for some time, but let's not forget that in 2016 he posted a 12.7 K/9 rate with 13.2% swinging strikes as a full-time reliever. Granted, he also posted a 5.27 ERA. The results weren't there but the stuff most definitely was – weren't we saying that about Pressly not so long ago? Incidentally, May is a sleeper candidate to fill Pressly's vacancy in the bullpen next year as a dominating righty setup man. The Twins have spent long stretches of this season without Sano, Polanco, Mejia and May, but it's deeply invigorating to see them all back on the roster, healthy and performing. LOWLIGHTS Another pivotal long-term figure who's been absent from the Twins for much of 2018 continues to endure setback after setback, and it's looking like he might not make it back this year at all. Byron Buxton, who's been in Triple-A since mid-June – first on rehab and then on optional assignment – spent half of July on the disabled list with a sprained wrist. He returned at the end of the month to make two starts, striking out five times in seven at-bats, and then went back on the shelf last week as the wrist evidently had not healed. Overall, Buxton has slashed .218/.299/.385 with a 31% K-rate in 22 games at Rochester since moving down, as a 24-year-old facing inexperienced prospects and minor-league journeymen. He has not earned his way back to the big leagues on merit, and is fast running out of time to do so. Toss in the inescapable onslaught of injuries, plus service time considerations, and it's pretty clear what the right path is for Minnesota at this point: Leave him down or DLed for the remainder of the campaign. Hope for a full reset in 2019. It's far from ideal, but idealism is out the window with Buck at this point. Having cleared some room on their 40-man roster through all the deadline sell moves, Minnesota picked up a couple of players off waivers last week, including one who has already made his way up to the MLB club. Oliver Drake joined the Twins when Matt Magill left on paternity leave Friday, becoming the latest reliever to get an audition. Drake is a 31-year-old who has bounced around a ton over the past few years. No one has been impressed enough to stick with him long. Don't get me wrong, there are things to like about Drake – his 3.51 FIP rate as a big-leaguer is at odds with the 5.00 ERA and he's got a 9.9 K/9 rate go along with spectacular Triple-A numbers – but it's mystifying that the Twins keep prioritizing veterans off the scrap heap, like him and Matt Belisle, over their own internal options. Why not give Alan Busenitz, Tyler Duffey, Luke Bard, John Curtiss, Nick Anderson or even Kohl Stewart a shot? There is no shortage of worthwhile candidates on the Triple-A roster, and this is seemingly the perfect time to take a look. TRENDING STORYLINE With Dozier gone, I'll be curious to see how playing time at second base is divvied up in the remaining weeks. Thus far, it's been two starts for Ehire Adrianza and three for newly acquired Logan Forsythe. The Twins gain minimal benefit from running Forsythe out there, so I'd hope to see Adrianza get the lion's share of time. I know many would like to get a look at Nick Gordon, but the 22-year-old's considerable struggles at Triple-A make that unlikely. Gordon's been amidst a bit of a free-fall; he went 3-for-28 last week and is batting .106 with zero extra-base hits in his past 17 games. Adrianza's bat has gone cold – he's batting only .125 since the start of July – but his playing time has also been very sporadic. In June, when he started regularly, he posted an .861 OPS. Why not run him out there nightly and see what what he can do? Unlike Forsythe, Adrianza can be a factor for Minnesota next year and perhaps a big one. DOWN ON THE FARM I was remiss not to mention Brent Rooker in the last edition, because he was an absolute monster the previous week (13-for-26, 3 HR, 7 BB, 3 K), so I'll remedy that error by highlighting him now. Rooker had another very solid seven days at Chattanooga, going 5-for-17 with two doubles and five walks. He has piled up 30 doubles and 20 home runs in 104 games at Double-A, and is batting .313 since the start of June. Of all the top 10 Twins prospects, Rooker seems best positioned to make a real impact at the major-league level next year. I'd love it if we got an early look at him in September, and the more he continues to crush week after week, the more realistic that possibility becomes. Another player he deserves to come (back) up to the majors and solidify his case for 2019: Romero, who surpassed his previous career high for innings pitched on Sunday in dazzling fashion, hurling eight shutout frame to shut down the Pawtucket Sox. Romero now owns a 2.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for Rochester. I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins go to a six-man rotation in September, adding Romero and lightening the load on him and the rest of the starters. In Cedar Rapids, Minnesota's system is seeing some incredible initial returns on a couple of recent additions. Ryan Jeffers, promoted to the Kernels late last month after decimating the Appy League, went 14-for-26 with three home runs and six doubles, producing an outrageous 1.116 slugging percentage in seven games. He walked four times and struck out once. Minnesota's second-round pick in the June draft has the looks of a fast riser, which is crucial given the position he plays (catcher). Now, it should be noted that it's hardly uncommon for a highly drafted college bat to take the low minors by storm, so we should temper our enthusiasm a bit, but obviously Jeffers is looking like a brilliant pick thus far, and first-rounder Trevor Larnach (.903 OPS through 14 games at Elizabethton) is also making a strong first impression. Speaking of first impressions, they hardly get better than Jhoan Duran's with the Twins organization. The 20-year-old, acquired in the Escobar trade, tossed seven hitless innings in his first start for Cedar Rapids on Monday, and then added 6 1/3 innings of three-run ball on Sunday with nine strikeouts. Duran was one of two players specifically called out by chief baseball officer Derek Falvey, alongside Jorge Alcala, in his chat with Sid Hartman of the Star Tribune regarding the team's deadline prospect haul. Falvey opined that those two have a chance to become upper-end starters, and made note of Duran's "real power stuff." So far that assessment looks correct. LOOKING AHEAD The comfortably mediocre Twins are nine games behind the Indians and five games ahead of the Tigers in the AL Central. They'll face both of them on the road this week. Which direction will Minnesota move? MONDAY, 8/6: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP Trevor Bauer TUESDAY, 8/7: TWINS @ INDIANS – LHP Adalberto Mejia v. RHP Carlos Carrasco WEDNESDAY, 8/8: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Jake Odorizzi v. RHP Mike Clevinger THURSDAY, 8/9: TWINS @ INDIANS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Corey Kluber FRIDAY, 8/10: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Ervin Santana v. RHP Jordan Zimmermann SATURDAY, 8/11: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Kyle Gibson v. LHP Francisco Liriano SUNDAY, 8/12: TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Adalberto Mejia v. LHP Matthew Boyd View full article

Well, I was referring more to players we might actually be able to watch in Twins games. Possibly one or both could be up in September but I kinda doubt it. But yes, Rooker and Gordon could very well factor into the 2019 picture. Rooker just needs to stay the course; it'd be really nice to see Gordon get something going in Rochester before the season ends.

The dream of contention has died, and several longtime fixtures have departed, but that doesn't mean fans can't find reason to watch in August and September. I wrote last week that that the vision for a championship contender in 2020 remains intact. Can the Twins speed up at that timeline and become a serious factor in the American League as soon as next year? That depends largely on a select group of players, many of whom will be on display and worth closely watching over the last two months of the campaign. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, USA Today The dream of contention has died, and several longtime fixtures have departed, but that doesn't mean fans can't find reason to watch in August and September. I wrote last week that that the vision for a championship contender in 2020 remains intact. Can the Twins speed up at that timeline and become a serious factor in the American League as soon as next year? That depends largely on a select group of players, many of whom will be on display and worth closely watching over the last two months of the campaign. Minnesota's roster has been whittled down over the past week, but plenty of remaining team members will be using the final third of the schedule to build toward better things next year. Positive signs from these seven enigmatic figures over the balance of the season would be extremely reaffirming as far as the club's future outlook is concerned. Miguel Sano One way or another, Sano will figure into Minnesota's 2019 plans. Will it be as a third baseman? A first baseman? A designated hitter? Will he be a trusted slugger in the middle of the lineup, or a total wild-card coming off a roundly disappointing season? We don't know the answers to these questions yet, but Sano can do much to provide clarity over the final nine weeks. First things first, he needs to start making some contact. Dating back to his return from the disabled list in late May, Sano has struck out in 36 of 84 plate appearances (43%) with the Twins, including six times in 10 plate appearances since his recall from a minor-league reset. If he can move back toward his customary (though still extremely high) 35% K range, while starting to crush the ball with more consistency, it'll be a very reassuring sign heading into the offseason. Monday's game at least felt like a step in the right direction, with Sano collecting a pair of hits (including a scorched double) and drawing a walk. Mitch Garver Already Garver is doing enough to prove himself with the bat. As an MLB rookie he has posted a .760 OPS, third-highest on the team, and that includes a .316/.409/.579 line in July. The 27-year-old combines a keen eye at the plate with strong contact skills and at least adequate power. Questions mainly seem to surround his defensive aptitude. In spite of his offensive takeoff, Garver hasn't quite been able to tap into a true starter's regimen behind the plate, even with veteran minor-league journeyman Bobby Wilson as the sole alternative. As an outsider, it'll be a little tough to evaluate progress on this front. There are certain aspects of catching and receiving that are almost impossible to gauge as a mere spectator – rapport with pitchers, ability to execute a game plan, and so forth. I suppose we'll get a read on the coaching staff's perspective based on how Garver's usage behind the plate unfolds during the final weeks. Up to this point, Molitor has rarely had him catch on consecutive days. If the Twins finish the year feeling confident in Garver as a backstop, it'll significantly lower the ambiguity around the position going forward. Byron Buxton It's been a nightmare season for Buxton. Can he wake up before it ends or will he carry its echoes into the offseason? Crippling migraines, a trip to the disabled list, a broken toe, a horrendous stretch in the majors, a return to the disabled list, a demotion to Triple-A, another return to the disabled list, and now more distressing struggles. Since rejoining the Rochester Red Wings on Friday after a two-week absence due to a wrist injury, Buxton is 1-for-7 with five strikeouts, amidst rumblings that the wrist is still bothering him. In 88 total plate appearances at Triple-A he has struck out 27 times (32%), which is tremendously alarming for a 24-year-old who had absolutely slain International League pitching in the past. If he doesn't land on the DL again, Buxton will probably be back up fairly soon. Then, we'll get to see if the wayward centerpiece can start to find himself before time runs out on this season. Max Kepler Although his issues have been far less severe than fellow fizzling core components Sano and Buxton, Kepler's disappointing play has been arguably more troubling. Because unlike the other two, Kep's lackluster production can't be tied primarily to physical issues. He's been healthy enough to play in 102 of Minnesota's 105 games. There's nothing visibly wrong with him; he's even taking great ABs, tracking for a career-low K rate and career-high BB rate. But the results just aren't there. Among qualified MLB right fielders, Kepler's .729 OPS ranks dead last, remaining almost exactly static with the past two seasons. The complete lack of offensive growth has turned him from a promising rookie into a stagnating below-average outfielder with 1,500 plate appearances under his belt, approaching arbitration and hardly locked in as a long-term starter. He'd instill a lot more confidence with a big closing run that shows he's capable of translating the solid plate approach into sustained production. Right now this is very much in doubt. Addison Reed The front office's foray into free agency over the winter carried little risk. Lance Lynn and Zach Duke have already been flipped for prospects, and Fernando Rodney's contract for next year is optional (if he makes it through August). The only bold commitment they made was to Reed, whose two-year deal worth $16.75 million represented a record plunge for the Twins on the relief market. So far the results haven't been great. Reed pitched fairly well early on, then seemed to wear down as the season progressed, and spent the past couple of weeks sidelined by elbow issues. Reed was activated on Monday, and owns the team's highest guaranteed salary for 2019, so it'd be nice if he could show any hint of getting straightened out the rest of the way. With Ryan Pressly gone, the Twins really need Reed to be a major late-inning factor in their bullpen next season. In particular I'll be looking for a rebound in velocity. As you can see from the chart below (via Brooks Baseball), Reed was trending downward in a big way before going on the shelf. Fernando Romero Unlike most of the others mentioned above, Romero isn't a concerning case at present. He has had a strong first year in Triple A, and a very respectable intro to the majors at age 23. But his continued development is essential to Minnesota's short-term outlook, so it'll be key for Romero to keep it rolling. As you may be aware, the right-hander lost almost his entire 2014 and 2015 seasons to injury. He came back to log 90 innings in 2016, then ramped up to a career-high 125 last year before breaking down in August. He is currently at 110 frames this season between Rochester and Minnesota. Can Romero stay healthy and effective through 150-plus? If so, he'll answer one of the few remaining questions suppressing his stock. Michael Pineda Ah, the forgotten man. Minnesota signed Pineda to a two-year, $10 million contract in December as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The big righty's arm has now healed, and he's slated to start a rehab stint in the Gulf Coast League next week. If all goes well he ought to be up with the Twins for the final month, likely as a reliever. As we look ahead to the 2019 season, Pineda's an awfully intriguing factor. He has a 3.60 FIP, 1.19 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 rate as a big-leaguer. If he returns at a similar level, he has a chance to join Romero, Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson in a potentially formidable rotation capable of contending for a championship. Which remaining players are you most interested in keeping an eye on as the season winds down? View full article

I don't even know where that distinction is coming from. I said the short-term pipeline was robust and it is; the Twins have a lot of top prospects approaching MLB readiness. If you were expecting/hoping to get back prospects you could be confident were going to contribute significantly in 2019, I don't know what to tell ya. The Twins don't have the kind of assets to acquire such pieces, outside of maybe Gibson and that'd sorta defeat the purpose, no?

Out of the gates, maybe not (Romero and Mejia, possibly, though they don't have prospect status anymore). But plenty of others figure to debut and start acclimating next year: Gonsalves, Thorpe, Gordon, Rooker, Wade, Littell, etc. Even Lewis and Kirilloff aren't far off. I'd categorize all of these players as "short-term pipeline."

The short-term pipeline is quite robust. The Twins are trying to ensure that they've got plenty more after that wave, and this approach also helps them manage the 40-man roster. It's a good idea even if it's not sexy or exciting at the moment.

Ah, appears you're correct. I thought they moved it back to August 1st a year or two ago? Guess not.

The Twins bounced back from a crushing sweep in Kansas City with surprising vigor, taking all three contests in Toronto and then the first at Fenway. Unfortunately, it all proved to be too little, too late. The front office was already in talks with trade partners for deadline 'sell' moves, and pulled the trigger on deals to send out Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly in exchange for prospects. The Twins haven't won a game since Escobar's exit was announced on Friday afternoon. Image courtesy of Winslow Townson, USA Today The Twins bounced back from a crushing sweep in Kansas City with surprising vigor, taking all three contests in Toronto and then the first at Fenway. Unfortunately, it all proved to be too little, too late. The front office was already in talks with trade partners for deadline 'sell' moves, and pulled the trigger on deals to send out Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly in exchange for prospects. The Twins haven't won a game since Escobar's exit was announced on Friday afternoon. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/23 through Sun, 7/29 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 48-56) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: -31) Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (9.0 GB) Despite holding their own on the East Coast leg of their post-break road trip, the Twins essentially waved the white flag over the weekend by trading away key pieces of their lineup and bullpen. Their prospect haul was solid, and featured some pretty clear themes. The top two position players received (Gilberto Celestino and Gabriel Maciel) are speedy outfielders, with presently limited power, who can play center. The top two pitchers (Jorge Alcala and Jhoan Duran) are hard-throwing righties that can miss bats but need work throwing strikes. Alcala, acquired in the Pressly trade, is generally considered the top prize among newly acquired assets (none of which need to occupy 40-man spots yet). The 23-year-old was at Double A in Houston's system and is the only prospect added who's anywhere close to the majors. ESPN's Keith Law writes that Alcala has "shown enough aptitude on the mound that scouts I've talked to feel like he has a chance to start or end up as a high-leverage reliever." HIGHLIGHTS Although he's seen his name sprout up in various rumors and rumblings, Kyle Gibson is still a Twin for now. Ken Rosenthal reported on Friday that the Twins would need to be "blown away" to move the right-hander, and with good reason; one night earlier he'd shut down the Red Sox, allowing one run over eight innings. By silencing the league's best offense in their own yard, Gibson put forth his most impressive performance in a season that's been full of them, another convincing sign he's really pulled it together. If they're maintaining a focus on short-term contention, the Twins are wise to hang onto Gibson for 2019 and perhaps consider negotiating an extension this offseason, when they have some leverage. Although we lost one Ed, we've thankfully still got our Eddie Rosario. On Friday night, as Minnesota's clubhouse reeled from the loss of Escobar, Rosario stepped up and put on a show. With two outs in the top of the ninth, he banged a go-ahead two-run double off the Green Monster against All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel. In the bottom half of that inning, he made a dazzling defensive play at third base – yes, third base, where he'd ended up due to a short-handed bench: https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/1023034279675265025 Although there hasn't been much for Twins fans to rejoice over the past few months, Mitch Garver is a very notable exception. The rookie backstop has taken off following a slow start, batting .296/.386/.452 in his last 40 games. He's been stellar in July with a .969 OPS and 10-to-9 K/BB ratio in 63 plate appearances. Garver's past week included a four-hit, five-RBI effort in Toronto as well as a crucial RBI double in the opening victory at Fenway. It was also nice to see him draw five starts – four at catcher, one at DH. Hopefully Garver can continue to see that kind of regular usage the rest of the way. If he maintains his strong production he'll solidify himself as a valuable property heading into 2019, while considerably reducing overall concern around the catcher position. LOWLIGHTS One might argue the turning point of this starkly divided week arrived when news of Escobar's departure came down on Friday afternoon. After all, as mentioned earlier, the Twins didn't win another game after that. But really, the turning point came in the ninth inning of Friday night's game. After Rosario's clutch double had given the Twins a lead, Fernando Rodney came in and promptly coughed up a game-tying home run to Rafael Devers. Rodney's sixth blown save came one night after he converted No. 22 in harrowing fashion, walking the bases full with a one-run lead and then going to 3-0 against Jackie Bradley, Jr. before managing to throw three strikes and avert disaster. Rodney had a fantastic run in May and June but has been far less effective of late. In 11 1/3 July innings he has allowed 15 hits and four walks. Last week he surrendered six hits and three walks in four appearances. As the deadline approaches, Rodney is losing some luster as a trade chip. So too is Brian Dozier, whose walk-off grand slam heading into the break failed to serve as a launching pad. Since then, Dozier has zero home runs and a .175 average. Last week he produced one double and two RBIs in seven games. “It stinks," said Dozier of the team's decision to trade Escobar on Friday. He likely feels the same way about enduring such a letdown season on the brink of free agency. Dozier must recognize that his underwhelming play – he's been a net negative at the plate per Win Probability Added – is a direct contributor to this current state of affairs. Miguel Sano, another prime culprit, made his unceremonious return to the Twins roster over the weekend. He hadn't exactly forced the issue with his play at Rochester, where he was 2-for-14 in a brief stint, but Minnesota needed a third baseman after dealing Escobar, and didn't have much to gain by having Sano tread water perpetually at Triple A. Commendably, the slugger looks noticeably leaner now than when we last saw him, but that's where the good news ends. Sano went 0-for-7 with five strikeouts in his first two games back, looking flat-out terrible at the plate. His offensive regression has just been astounding. Once a supremely dominant force with an advanced understanding of the strike zone, he now seems to be guessing in every at-bat. The 2017 All-Star failed to clobber minor-league pitching and now, once again, looks overmatched by big-league arms. By all accounts he's fully healthy, and he's been playing regularly for two months so rust can't really be pegged as a factor. What are the Twins to do other than keep running him out there and hope he improves? Of course, the "Lowlights" section wouldn't be complete without our weekly lament of Matt Belisle and his lingering presence on the roster. As Tyler Duffey, Alan Busenitz and others toil in the minors, and Matt Magill goes mostly unused in the Twins bullpen, Belisle continues to throw consistently sub-par innings. He lost Friday night's game on two pitches, yielding a walk-off home run to Mookie Betts leading off the 10th. By trading Pressly, who was projecting as a key member of the 2019 bullpen, the Twins have an even greater need to evaluate possible righty relief options going forward. They're doing themselves and the fans a huge disservice by continuing to waste a roster spot and valuable innings on Belisle. TRENDING STORYLINE It's going to be a tense stretch leading up to Tuesday afternoon. Escobar and Pressly are out, with more players sure to follow. Gibson is most likely safe, but he'll be sweating a little as he awaits his next start just after the deadline falls. Lance Lynn is slated to start on Wednesday afternoon. Will he make it there? He made a pretty good impression in his latest effort on Friday, tossing six innings of one-run ball against Boston. Dozier seems almost certain to go – it's only a matter of when, where, and who replaces him. Nick Gordon's quiet arrival in Triple A (he went 1-for-22 in five games last week) suggests he could use more seasoning. Ehire Adrianza would probably be the main replacement, and he deserves a prolonged look; the slick-gloved infielder has an .826 OPS in his past 35 games and could easily play a significant role on next year's team. Rodney and Zach Duke are also on Hug Watch, along with Jake Odorizzi, Logan Morrison and a few others. DOWN ON THE FARM Another week, another series of eye-popping performances from Alex Kirilloff. He ran his hitting streak with the Miracle to 13 last week by collecting hits in every game, finishing 15-for-27 (.556) with six doubles and eight RBIs. Among players with 100 or more plate appearances in the Florida State League, the 20-year-old ranks first in batting average at .384. No one elsse is close. On Saturday night, while Kirilloff was extending his streak, Brusdar Graterol enjoyed a breakout showing for Ft. Myers, striking out 10 over 5 2/3 innings of two-hit, one-run ball. It was a big step forward from his first four starts in the FSL, in which Graterol had yielded a .346 average and managed a mere 6% swinging strike rate. On June 11th, in a game at Scranton Wilkes-Barre against the Yankees' Triple A affiliate, Stephen Gonsalves allowed nine earned runs on nine hits, both the highest totals of his pro career. He has responded to that blip with an absolutely incredible eight-start stretch, in which he has allowed four runs on 23 hits over 46 innings for a 0.89 ERA. During this six-week span, the left-hander has faced 176 batters and given up one extra-base hit. It was a triple, yielded in otherwise sterling effort on Tuesday in which Gonsalves hurled seven scoreless frames. He followed on Sunday with six innings of two-run ball. The most encouraging aspect of last week's work was the crisp control, cleaning up one of the few recurring weaknesses in his performance; across his two last outings, Gonsalves threw 66% strikes and issued two walks in 13 innings. Despite the fine work in his previous six turns, he'd handed out a troubling 21 free passes in 33 frames with 61% strikes. Gonsalves has achieved outstanding results at every level of the minors, so his relative lack of traction among national prospect analysts is conspicuous – especially his ranking 10th among Twins prospects in the updated Baseball America rankings released last week, amidst this untouchable run in the International League. Clearly, many aren't sold on the lanky left-hander, and it isn't too hard to see why. His relatively soft arsenal doesn't match the imposing frame and control issues like his tend to manifest against big-league hitters. For this reason, it'll be key for him to sustain the strike-throwing improvements from last week. One way or another, I suspect we'll see him up in September, if not before. Another lefty who is having no such trouble throwing strikes: Lewis Thorpe, who turned in another pristine performance in Chattanooga on Friday, scattering two hits and a walk over seven scoreless frames with seven strikeouts. He too is riding an amazing eight-start stretch: 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA, 53-to-5 K/BB ratio and one homer allowed in 41 innings. Thorpe is quietly becoming a candidate to play a role for the Twins very early next season. LOOKING AHEAD If things had gone more to plan, this week would shape up as an absolutely pivotal one for the Twins. With the trade deadline looming on Tuesday afternoon, they've got three home games against the division leaders followed by an ostensibly winnable weekend series against the lackluster Royals. From there, Minnesota will head to Cleveland for four more games against the Indians. If they were in the race the Twins would have an opportunity to make a charge for the top of the AL Central over the next 11 days. As things stand, they'd still be six games behind Cleveland even with a sweep at Target Field, and will find it exceedingly difficult to make up the rest of that gap without Escobar, Pressly and whoever else departs in the next couple days. MONDAY, 7/30: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Shane Bieber v. RHP Ervin Santana TUESDAY, 7/31: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Trevor Bauer v. RHP Kyle Gibson WEDNESDAY, 8/1: INDIANS @ TWINS – RHP Carlos Carrasco v. RHP Lance Lynn FRIDAY, 8/3: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Heath Fillmyer v. RHP Jake Odorizzi SATURDAY, 8/4: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Burch Smith v. RHP Jose Berrios SUNDAY, 8/5: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Danny Duffy v. RHP Ervin Santana Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps Game 98 | MIN 8, TOR 3: Twins Cruise Over Toronto Game 99 | MIN 5, TOR 0: All-Star, Indeed Game 100 | MIN 12, TOR 6: More Like Er-win Sweep-tana!!! Game 101 | MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the Great Game 102 | BOS 4, MIN 3: No Escobar, But At Least We Still Have Belisle Game 103 | BOS 10, MIN 4: Twins Blow Lead in Spectacular Fashion Game 104 | BOS 3, MIN 0: Fenway Freefall Continues More on Twins Daily With Sano returning to the fold, Parker Hageman broke down some video and pictures to see what might've changed during a minor-league reset Andrew Thares looked at what kind of return the Twins might be able to get for Gibson if they end up moving him. SD Burh (unsuccessfully) urged the Twins not to sell. I wrote that despite some setbacks, the vision for a contending team in the near future remains intact. View full article

I wasn't ripping it. I agree it was a good discussion. I was just genuinely caught off-guard when I saw the thread title pop up on the sidebar. It baffles me that any fans would place significant blame on this front office. They haven't been perfect but from my view the sum of their work has been excellent.

I'm bullish on 2019 (which is a big reason why I say the Twins cannot trade Gibson unless totally overwhelmed by an offer), but 2020 is a more realistic timeline for those emerging top prospects to enter the fold and take things to the next level.

Yeah... I wrote a post during spring training last year about his hazardous track record and the concerns they cast on his future.