Nashvilletwin

Agree 100%. There has been a lot of angst on the TD about whether any of our up-and-comers (Lewis, Lee, Martin, and even Miller) can stick at SS. So, why would we want to spend upwards of $30MM for someone to play mediocre SS for a couple of years and them move to 3B? If that’s the case, we’d a) be way overpaying for our 3rd baseman, b) still have to solve SS, and c) be blocking one of our top targets (who’d be making 700k). Sign Correa. We have the money and in 8 years $30MM will only really be about $15MM. Besides, with our new young core manning lots of roster spots, we’d have plenty of cash left over for pitching FAs - a SP and a few quality relievers.

Agree. The Twins have seven solid young infielder prospects/major leaguers: Arraez, Miranda, Gordon, Lewis, Lee, Julien, and Martin. You could throw in Jeffers as well behind the dish. This should be our next, new young “core” (replacing Sano, Kepler and Polanco) arriving at different times but all together as a unit probably in ‘24. Hopefully Kiriloff, Larnach and Wallner are part of the gang too. This group has a strong mix of pop, speed, OBP, and interchangeability/positional flexibility (for example, Gordon and Martin could be highly productive “super utilities”). Cheap too. Add Correa and get 100 games out of Buxton in CF and this looks like a strong lineup with enough cash to build a pitching staff to maintain a true open window for at least a couple of years. The key is to get these young players the coaching, training, and innings to keep (and continuously) developing their potential. We can’t afford Sano and Kepler type plateauings.

Would this be a contending position player lineup in ‘24 (and the next few years as well) from both a competitive and realistic budget perspective? Interchangeable Infield and DH as Needed (Total: $47.1) Correa SS ($35). Lewis 3B ($0.7). Lee 2B ($0.7). Arraez 1B ($5.0). Miranda DH ($0.7) Interchangeable Outfield and DH as Needed (Total: $17.1) Buxton CF ($15). Larnach LF ($0.7). Kiriloff RF ($0.7). Wallner RF/LF ($0.7). Backup CF/Super Utility and DH as Needed (Total: $1.4) Gordon CF/Other ($0.7). Martin CF/Other ($0.7) Catcher (Total: $1.4) Jeffers ($0.7). Backup - TBD ($0.7) 13 Position Players (Total: $67.0) This lineup has speed, power, BA, OBP, fielding, throwing, flexibility, depth, RH and LH bats, vets and youth at a very reasonable price. And it wouldn’t need to change much for several years. Lots of cash ($75 give or take) available for pitching as well. Conclusion: sign Correa if we can.

A couple of questions: 1. How many of the 10 year deals for 28-30 year old players look good after year 7 or so? There must be data on that, right? 2. Having said that, how much is $35MM/year really worth in years 8-10 anyway? With inflation, tv revenue growth, etc., that $35MM may only really be $15-$20MM equivalent. 3. If we win one WS in that time frame, do the Pohlads really care? The FO? 4. Sure we have some solid SS talent in the organization (Lee, Lewis, Martin, and Miller), but isn’t, as the adage says, a bird in the hand better than two in the bush? 5. Signing CC is not incongruent with many, if not all, of those prospects playing huge roles on the Twins. In ‘24 would we not be thrilled with the four infield spots and DH covered interchangeably by Correa, Lewis, Lee, Miranda and Arraez? And with Martin and Gordon in the super utility roles, specifically backing up Buxton in CF with a combo of Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner or a new RH bat in the corner OF positions? 6. With Urshela, Kepler, Sano and Polanco gone, and with all of the essentially league minimum young talent among the position players, isn’t this the time to spend? Even more so if we believe in our young SP talent? 7. Isn’t signing CC the message you want to send to your fan base in a tough economic environment? Conclusion: Aggressively pursuing CC makes sense. Even if the last few years are a disaster, the deterioration of the true dollar cost over time coupled with matching the high CC salary with the low salaries of our young core over the near to mid-term makes the risk worthwhile. But let’s not be disappointed if we don’t land him - there are still many alternative, compelling strategies for pursuing a title we can pursue.

Not saying he will get one. Just saying he might seek one. He opens the season with the Twins and will stay probably up to the deadline at least depending on if we are contending. On the margin, I’d prefer to have players committed to both individual and organisational success. I’d think Gray would satisfy both of those preferences with a little more of an open mind from the manager.

The Urshela trade decision might be independent of the SS sweepstakes. Regardless of how that transpires, it is more likely than not he remains a Twin to start the year. If we nab a top SS, it indicates we are going for it and he likely stays (and if we are contending at the deadline, he might stay the entire year). If we don’t acquire a SS, he likely stays to help platoon at SS until one or more of Lewis, Lee, and/or Martin are ready. In this case, he might get moved at the deadline as we prep for ‘24. He’s a solid ballplayer for sure. The question is how do you maximise value for him if it does not appear that he is part of the equation in ‘24 and beyond. This FO will not openly (nor decidedly) choose ‘23 to be a transition year to an infield (and plenty of DH) comprised of Lewis, Lee, Martin, Arreaz and Miranda - even though if all goes well that could/should be the case.

May need to be patient. Could be a trade solution. But, I think organisationally, big bat RH corner OF is our biggest hole from a mid-term perspective. I love Gray, but not convinced he won’t seek a trade if our 5 inning starter strategy stays in place. He will be in a contract year and (deservedly) eager to show that he’s more than a two times through the order guy in order to get the big bucks. Unfortunately, I have the under on Mahle ever really contributing. I so hope I’m wrong.

Yes, I’d trade both. Ultimately Urshela too. All before the deadline. I’m not expecting a ton, but RP would be my target. But this was an incomplete exercise in looking at ‘23 as a transition year to ‘24. The biggest hole in ‘24 from a positional player basis is probably not SS, but more likely a big RH corner OF bat. That’s where I’d be looking to spend the big FA dollars on a multi year deal. Just thinking a bit more about it. In ‘24, we could have these five players comprising our starting IF and DH: Lee, Lewis, Martin, Arraez, and Miranda. Those five could essentially play every day, provide excellent interchangeability options and should offer a strong mix of fielding, OBP, power, and speed. Also, other than Arraez, four of those five are essentially on league minimum. That’s pretty darn good. With our existing big bat RH CF limited to 100 or so games and depth at LH corner OF (Wallner, Kiriloff, and Larnach), the real need is a power RH corner OF bat. That’s the FA I’d go get. Add in Gordon (CF mostly) to that group and you have six really good options in the OF with three RH and LH bats. Two players are relatively expensive and four are essentially league minimum. Throw in a quality backup C with Jeffers and that’s my plan for the 13 position players in ‘24. This leaves lots of $ for the pitching staff.

Great points. There are options (Urshela, Polanco, Gordon) for covering SS until one of Lewis, Lee or even Martin is ready. As an aside, I actually think it’s possible that those three are our starting SS (Lewis), 3B (Lee), and 2B (Martin) in 2024. With Miranda and Arraez, those five should be a solid fielding and hitting (average and power) interchangeable starting infield and DH. Which leads to the question: is SS really our biggest position player hole where we should spend big FA dollars? I’d suggest the answer is no. Assuming a dial moving FA would require big dollars over multiple years, then I’d say our organisation’s biggest hole is a high quality, big bat RH corner outfielder. That’s where I’d spend the money - especially given our existing big bat RH outfielder is probably a 100-120 games per season player.

We shouldn’t sleep on Martin. He’s always been a top OBP guy, even when struggling at the plate. With next year’s rule changes, the Twins need more (actually, a lot more) speed and he has it. I’m seeing a future top of the order of RH Martin and LH Arraez (think of the pitches he would see with Martin on base). The question may be: can Martin play 2B? The new “young core” may actually be Lewis, Lee, Wallner, and Martin to go along with Miranda, Arraez, Jeffers and Gordon. I’m hopeful that Kiriloff and/or Larnach can be part of that too. With Buxton and adding one really good position player FA and a decent backup C - that’s not a bad top 12/13 heading into 2024. 11 of those players are already in the system and 9 (other than Arraez and Buxton) are essentially at league minimum.

I was just seeing what a complete rebuild could look like and this was posted accidentally. When I x’d out of the site, it just posted. No biggie. I’m not advocating this plan and don’t think it will be put in place. Having said that, a position player team somewhat like this by year end could be possible if we get off to a slow start. Also, I’m not confident Gray will not ask for a trade - good starters in contract years don’t want to be seen as 5 inning guys and if Rocco won’t give him much more of a leash, he might leave. Mahle, is of course, a wild card as well - might be moved with a slow team start or based on his health. What this does show is that if the FO sticks with the current starting staff, there is plenty of cash to acquire two good FA position players, a backup C, and a couple of relievers.

It posted without my approval. I was just starting to look at what a complete rebuild might look like just for fun. I clicked out and it posted. No biggie. I don’t like it and am pretty sure no one else will. Clearly this is not the direction we will head. Having said that, it’s not that unrealistic to think something like this - with Lewis back, Urshela, Kepler and Gray traded (might happen this off season - no high quality starter going into a contract test wants to be thought of as a 5 inning guy only), Mahle gone (injury or trade), and a number of younger SP/RP prospects in the line up - if the season goes south early. The good news is that this shows there is obviously plenty of capital available for at least two really good FA position players plus a backup C assuming we stick with the starting staff and only add one or two relievers.

C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) 2B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.70M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Austin ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 54.07% under budget

C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) 2B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Brooks Lee ($0.70M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) 4th OF: Austin ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) Payroll is 54.07% under budget

I see and like the logic, but this roster is essentially rolling out last year’s failed effort with Maeda back, a new backup C and a cheap reliever. Is this the “hey, but we were injured” plan? Or is it the “our manager will be better next year” plan? Should we really expect this team to contend?

Is there any evidence that sticking with this leadership group and their “process” will result in: a) playing with better fundamentals; b) making better in-game managerial/coaching staff decisions; c) maximizing the development of our young players once they make the show; and/or d) creating the confidence to beat better teams? I don’t see any, but maybe some of my fellow TDers do. Regardless, unless this team improves substantively in these areas, there is no reason why these Twins, or any mid-market team for that matter, should be expected to contend (even if a CC type FA is added). Here’s hoping they turn things around.

Could Camargo be our #2 catcher at the moment?

Very few knowns and lots of unknowns at this point. There are so many ways this club could go. Knowns: Arraez, Miranda, Gordon (btw, it’s unclear what position each of those will play), Jeffers, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, and Thielbar. That’s pretty much it. Oh, add Rocco too (for better or worse it seems to be the case), Unknowns: Buxton (his true availability). Kepler and Larnach (availability and performance). Celestino and Wallner (true major leaguers?). Kepler and Polanco (keep or trade). Urshela (tender or allow to leave). SS (sign one of the big four or wait for Lewis/Lee). 2nd catcher (internal options don’t seem ready/able). DH/COF RH bat (a need, especially given Buxton’s situation). Mahle, Paddock and Maeda (solid starters or injury write-offs). Other potential starters (SWR, Widner, Dobnak, etc,). Lopez, Alcala, Megill, Fulmer, etc. (basis for a shutdown pen?). Budget (Pohlads’ appetite given economy and attendance trends). Coaching (other than the committed to Rocco) and training staffs. Fearless Forecast: Its a tough series of simultaneous equations to solve. But it probably starts with the SS decision. Assuming (which is likely) we don’t sign one of the big four, I’d expect an approximate $100-110MM budget year with Polanco returning, Kepler leaving, Urshela staying, internal SS (with Urshela, Gordon, Polanco, and Polacios covering the reps until Lewis or Lee show up), taking a risk on the current possible starters with one possible low cost addition (heck, maybe even Bundy) and the rest of the budget to COF/DH RH bat, C, and two/three solid relievers. It’s a strategy that is cost effective with fairly low downside, but with plenty of upside (if the starters pan out, Buxton is healthy, and some of the young core produce).

Given the lack of hubris with this FO, it would certainly not be weird. More like predictable.

Fair enough. Your point is valid - the team met (some - maybe most - people’s) expectations. I was only trying to point out that such an accomplishment was reached with mediocre or worse performance by the manager. Or, perhaps, maybe Rocco met expectations too. Btw, I truly meant what I said when I wrote “Dear, most respected TDer”. Your comments are good and always worth reading.

Fair enough with all your comments. Most importantly, I agree that Rocco does not have ultimate control over all of the staff or the levers he can pull. So any underperformance related to those areas must fall on the FO. Rocco is likely to stay. I hope he gets better as a manager, particularly in a lot of the areas referenced above. I’m only trying to take an objective look at his performance relative to what his job description might call for. I stand by my hypothesis that a mid-market team will struggle to contend with a mediocre or worse manager.

My dear, most respected TDer - do you honestly think Rocco et al got the most of this team this year because they finished about where they were projected by the talking heads? Please point out one area where Rocco as the manager performed at or above expectations/requirements. Here’s a list of criteria (with my POV) for judging the manager’s performance that might help you: 1. Team plays sound fundamental baseball day-in and day-out. (A resounding no on this one). 2. Vis-a-vis his opponent managers, the manager’s in-game decisions result in more wins than losses on average. (He had his moments, but certainly not, and certainly not against the better teams). 3. Players play up to their potential and continued their development/growth through the season. (There are some examples both positive and negative here). 4. The team plays with confidence against stronger, contending type teams. (Nope and we added our division foes the Guardians to the teams with whom we have a mental block). 5. The manager has the trust and respect of his team. (No reason to suspect not, but it’s not clear given how he’s managed the pitching staff; none of us really know this one). 6. The manager has built a quality team of coaches and other staff. (Best coach left mid-season, 3B was a disaster, and the training staff doesn’t appear to be up to snuff). 7. The manager promotes a culture of accountability, starting with himself and his staff. (Given the undisciplined play, hard to see that this is a plus). 8. The manager makes sound decisions in terms of sticking with or pivoting from core strategies as circumstances dictate. (Don’t see much creativity on this front). Honestly, where has he performed, let alone outperformed? This team pretty much ended up not where they were expected to finish, but more in line with the manager’s performance. If a mid-market team wants to contend, they have to outperform in several areas - and the most important one to kick off that success is the manager’ performance. It’s extremely hard, if not impossible, for a mid market team to overcome a mediocre manager.

Get himself traded for Terry Francona. We will throw in Pagan to sweeten the deal.

Another great comment. The answer to your last question is probably not. The balanced schedule on the margin is most likely a negative for us. The conundrum is trying to rationalise pairing what I think you rightly predict to be a youngish, less expensive team (sorry, but CC will not be back after the great last month he’s put together) with a manager who cannot develop them on the field or in their minds. Why have a team filled with essentially 1-3 year players on rookie type deals who never really learn the fundamentals of the game or how to not cower at the Yankees or Guardians (now)? It just doesn’t make sense. If the Twins go the youngish route, at least get a manager who will turn them into complete ballplayers. But, alas, it won’t come to pass….

Very well could be and a reasonable plan. Nice going. I’d love to see Correa back, but I’ve got the under on that. Re Gray, my spidey senses are telling me he’s none to happy about being pulled so early all the time.