TNtwins85

I’m sorry for rambling on and it was not directly pointed towards you. I assure you. I didn’t intend on blowing you up but this word tanking and the implications of what that means are so far from what is going on. This team was built to be highly competitive this year coming off a disappointing collapse. This should have been done last offseason but that would have illicitly drawn the same outrage. Instead they ran it back and even got the Pohlads to throw in a few bucks to sign Bader and Coulombe. All in all this team was expected to win anywhere in the realm of 85-90 games. What happened? All aspects of this team failed to perform. With the deadline being what it is the Twins had bullets that other teams wanted. Did they need to trade some of them? No. Did they get value? Absolutely. They got value for guys that were tradeable. That’s the key word. “Tanking” and 40% of the roster were key phrases after. Let’s go over all this. Correa was massively overpaid as all FA contracts present. His defense is showing signs of slipping and he simply struggled to hit this year. The Twins were lucky to get out of that. They can’t afford to play in that end of the pool. Duran- great value. They got 2 top 100 prospects just like they stated. Whether anyone likes it this is massive value for a RP. Paddack- impending FA. Gotta get something for him. Bader- impending FA. Same as Paddack. Coulombe- impending FA. Castro- impending FA. Stewart- head scratcher but with his history unload him for something before he gets hurt…. Which he did. Jax- wanted out. Got good value for a guy wanting out. Varland- a head scratcher but you essentially got 1 solid OF no matter what anyone thinks and a good SP prospect for an almost 28yo solid RP. Good value. France- impending FA- a throw in with Varland that probably got a better prospect in Roden. Really they traded 38.5% of the roster and they were gonna already trade impending FA’s which constituted 19.2% of the roster. So really what people are mad about is 19.3% of the roster. Why have we heard 40%? Cause it gets people more riled up. We can be mad about the whole situation but to overstate what actually happened is foolish and childish. Nobody is tanking. The Twins are not rebuilding. As much as everyone hates Falvey what was he to do? Everyone complains about what he did but what was the solution? Run it back again? The owners and FO put themselves in this spot by A. Not investing after ‘23 and B. Not doing anything at the last 2 deadlines or shaking up the core last offseason. This was inevitable if you look at it logically. Saying the Twins don’t deserve they’re draft spot because they did what they needed to do is so shortsighted and based out of emotion and not logic. They’re not “tanking” because that’s impossible and is just an inflammatory word meant to drive buzz for the MLBPA. When people say that word they’re falling into the trap of being inflammatory.

Can we stop with this word “tanking” please. The definition of tanking in sports is to deliberately lose or fail to finish a game or season in this context. Teams in MLB are not ”tanking” in any sense of the word. Especially in MLB where there is almost never a consensus player in the draft who will change the fortunes of a team immediately. A-Rod, Skenes, Harper and Strasberg are probably the closest thing to what would be described as such. Yet that didn’t happen. One guy does not make you a contender in baseball. In MLB and NFL it’s all about number of picks and number of high picks. Can’t trade picks in MLB per se. Unlike the NFL in MLB it’s all about development. Are certain owners handicapping their teams? Of course(Pittsburgh). Are certain franchises inept and the analytics part of the game? Yes(Rockies) Are particular franchises a straight up mess? Absolutely( Miami, A’s, White Sox). But are Major League Baseball teams “TANKING” as per the definition? NO!!! Anyone that has ever played competitive baseball at any meaningful competitive level above HIgh School knows there is way too much at stake for a team to “tank”. Tanking is a buzz word put into our vocabularies by high up MLB people to create a talking point about tanking in order for talking heads to spew it about anytime a terrible team does bad. Despite being hamstrung by the Pohlads this team was built to win. As good as the team should have been they severely underperformed. What gets you the most at the trade deadline? Pitching. What did the Twins have? Pitching. Along with a handful of pending FA’s. Like it or not this team needed a shakeup. You can’t trade the hitters that are underperforming. They have no value and you need them. What did they have? In house developed bullpen arms. Like it or not they believe they can do that again and they stocked up on arms to do that. Are the Twins gonna sign Ryan and Ober and Lopez to extensions past they’re contracts? No! Logic tells you to load up on arms for the foreseeable future. The Twins are not gonna sign a big arm. Makes no sense to them. Complain about it all you want and complain about it if they trade Ryan or Lopez but it all makes sense whether you like it or not. But they are absolutely not “Tanking”. They’re not in “rebuild” mode. They’re not trying to do any of that. For what it’s worth the white Sox from last year didn’t “tank”. They’re development of all those big time prospects failed miserably. What were they to do? Hold onto those guys for the draft pick? Even the Sox know that is stupid. The Angels are the best example. They should have traded Ohtani and Trout when they could have. Why? Because 5 prospects are better than one. They could have built half a team with the prospects they could have got for those two. What are they now? Mired in mediocrity with a Mike Trout who can barely play 100 games and an absolute shell of what once was. Ohtani? Well, he haunts that team from across town. “Tanking” is an NFL and NBA term because those leagues operate much different. In baseball if teams were to tru ally “tank” it would eventually catch up with even the owners. And it would never fly with the MLBPA. It’s simply a word used by the MLBPA to get its veterans paid and it’s a lever to get fans up in arms repeating a word that’s continually repeated to them.

The new CBA is already playing out. It’s gonna be a salary cap for a salary floor. They’ll argue over specifics right up until it’s time for ST and then magically everything will come together. Season maybe starts later than normal but no games are lost. With 2020 still in their minds the owners are not ready to lose any revenue again.

Exactly! If you look at a Cleveland or Tampa Bay model which seems to be Falveys MO you trade guys like Ryan this offseason or next offseason. By trading Ryan at his peak you take the prospects rather than a draft pick and you get more lottery tickets that way. For Ryan you maybe get 3 potential Ryan’s with the hope you really get one. That’s how these teams continually compete. Yes they develop well but you’ve gotta have players with upside to develop. The more of those you have the more potential you have for another high level player. It’s all about keeping that wheel churning. Trading players at their height and getting the most in return. Doing that over and over. Why do you think they got so many high end SP’s? They’re restocking the cabinet. So many on here don’t understand what’s actually happening.

Minimum salary is $760000 per year. Paid over 6 months. That’s $4k per day. If he’s worried about taking care of his family on his salary he’s not getting any pity from 95% of the population. Sounds like he needs to stop taking Boras’ calls and just play baseball. It’s crazy how much money goes to the top players but come on. These guys are better taken care of than most CEO’s of major corporations. I understand the business of baseball but if he was doing what he’s supposed to do the money aspect falls into place. Let’s be honest. The money a team and player argue over is a couple hundred thousand on a million dollar salary. What they argue over is life changing money let alone the actual salary.

Ok. In that sense Larnach is likely to be non tendered as well. Larnach if tendered probably makes somewhere around $5M next year. Mountcastle makes almost $7M now so likely to make $9-10M next year. So eliminate that happening. The Twins aren’t paying a $9-10M player worth .5 WAR for a .3 WAR player set to make $4-5M. Ober is set to make around $6-7M as a 30yo pitcher who is struggling to throw above 90mph and is worth .8 WAR atm. Rutschman is a former #1 overall who put up big numbers for a catcher and is having his worst season so far but is still 27yo. He’s averaged 3.7 WAR for his career and is set to make somewhere between $8-10M next year. So in that sense there is no way Baltimore makes that deal knowing that Rutschman probably has a bounce back age 28 season. They don’t sell low on him now. Baltimore hangs the phone up right away in essentially an Ober for Rutschman trade. I propose selling high on Ryan and SWR for Rutschman, buying low on Coby Mayo, and Buxton insurance/ legit 4th OFer in the form of Enrique Bradfield Jr. could probably get a lottery ticket as well in the form of a Jordan Sanchez or Wilfri De La Cruz. You can then do a Vazquez/ Jeffers rotation with Jeffers and Rutschman with one playing DH or Rutschman playing 1B in the days they’re not catching.

Everything sounds good and I’m on board. Baltimore will never do that deal. For Rutschman it would probably take one of Ryan, Lopez, Mathew’s just to get the conversation started. No way they give up just Rutschman for that package let alone Mouncastle as well.

No.

So the Twins would trade prospects for a slightly better and more expensive version of Jeffers? I’m all for Rutschman and looked into this before the deadline but I don’t see it happening. Keep the prospects. I’d love to see the two of them split time like Jeffers and Vazquez with the other as a DH or 1B. But it’s just as easy for the Twins to sign a cheap glove first catcher. Also, I would think Baltimore wants to do just that same thing with him and Basallo. My dream and REALISTIC spitball trade scenario that address’ both teams needs is-Joe Ryan, SWR for Rutschman, Mayo and Bradfield. Baltimore needs pitching. The Twins need hitting. Baltimore gets a frontline starter and a back of the rotation piece. Twins get a catcher to PAIR with Jeffers. A former stud prospect struggling but with immense power and talent to play 1B in Mayo and a TRUE backup CF/ 4th outfielder in Bradfield who is close. I believe it’s a believable scenario and it helps both teams now.

Interesting. I didn’t think it was a bad pitch but like you said, he seemed ready for it. I’m sure the coaches will see that and something a young guy will have to work on. I remember Berrios had troubles tipping pitches when he came up. I was encouraged despite the box score.

Yes! I’d rather see Abel struggle with his command and try to figure it out at the MLB level than him dominate AAA while watching a 30yo Urena struggle. The kid showed dominant stuff when it went where he wanted it to go. Exciting!

There’s clearly a difference between a young guy who clearly has the stuff, ability and missed spots while trying to harness his command and a guy who is just straight up bad. Has absolutely nothing to do with the organization as a whole.

Well, I guess if they don't draft 1B then the Twins will never truly have one and they’ll just have guys learning in the big leagues which is less than ideal. As far as what the Twins got at the trade deadline I’ve been extremely optimistic and bullish on all of them except Outman.

Very good observation! I’ve said this before as well. When you are like the 2014,2015 Royals you do what they did. You go all in! They built up a core. Sold high on a star player(Grienke) to supplant their in house core. Supplanted that core with a few great trades that depleted their system a bit but ultimately those prospects didn’t amount to star players like almost all prospects. They were able to make it to two World Series. They won one. Down or middling years for 6-7 years. Developed another star in BW Jr. now building around him. Didn’t sign big money big name stars. Made two WS appearances and will probably make it to another one in the next 4-6 years when Witt is in his absolute prime. I’ve argued forever that’s what the Twins should have done in the Mauer, Morneau, Santana years. Instead they held the prospects. As a result we got the down 2010’s with no deep playoff runs to show for it.

Exactly. I don’t expect them to spend all $20M but if they can add a couple of veteran guys that total $10M—$15M that’s great. Also that’s for 3 more years so if they were to supplant the next 3 rosters with any group of guys in the $30M-$45M range that’s much better than on an aging Correa who has only gotten less capable and more injured. Getting out from that contract is a blessing and not a curse. There’s a path to winning as a smaller market team and as much as everyone around here wants a salary cap and floor I advocate non of that. Look at some teams right around us in Milwaukee and Cleveland. MLB doesn’t want it to create parity they want it for the money it brings in. Just like everything else it helps the owners and not the fans. A salary floor does the same thing only for the players. Just like everything else in this world one thing is said while the intention is something deeper. Everyone cry’s that the Twins can’t do what the dodgers and Yankees do but my question is why would you want that when there’s a model of winning without doing what they do? Yeah you don’t get to go out and make the big splash but that ultimately handcuffs your franchise at the back end of those contracts.

I would agree! Thank you for the rational comment amongst the rabid, the world is ending comments. Other than the Stewart trade I think they brought in quite a bit of talent that was needed for this team. When the players aren’t getting it done it’s time to reload. As long as they don’t trade any of the 3 headed pitching monster or Jeffers they’ll be ok. If they trade any of those guys then they’re rebuilding. If that’s the case there’s reinforcements next year and the year after. Not the end of the world and what were the Twins to do.

I can’t speak to the other places but working and spending a lot of time in Nashville they would find a way to get an MLB team and a stadium. The culture is infused with hundreds of thousands of transplants ready to grow Nashville with state and local money to fund it. A downtown site next to the new titans stadium prime for development coming. A population ready for the idea of MLB in Tennessee.

I heard reporting from Phil Miller that the two groups were an internal to Minnesota group and an east coast group. That the two groups were taking a significant position( likely the 30-40% as you speak) and I believe they still have 15 years still on their current lease. I believe the new groups bought out the percentage of Pohlads no longer interested in the team while also solving this $450M problem they have while also leaving Joe Pohlad in this position he wanted with Pohlads still being the majority owner. Although the lease could be bought out I don’t believe MLB would let that happen after finally solving the A’s and Rays situations opening the door for expansion in the next CBA which will bring in more money which had been the goal for Manfred since he came in. He doesn’t want the stain of another franchise moving I believe anyways. The new minnesota group infusing more positive faces to this. Cash from the outside group. If the Pohlads had to still be in charge I guess I can see this as a win. Time will tell as long as a Pohlad still holds the final decision but at least there’s other voices in that room. That’s coming from a guy who would be happy to see the Twins just an hour away from me in Nashville too. I think this is a win for the Twins really.

Falvey isn’t leaving. He’s not being fired. When he became president of the Twins and retained his PBO title he essentially married into the family. Without new owners he’s here to stay indefinitely.

I think you’re right on point. Derek Falvey came from Cleveland. He’s operated like Cleveland as far as pitching goes. So we have to ask what Cleveland does with aging pitchers. Also, look at what they want d for the players traded. Pitching. Draft position players in the first couple rounds. Pitching in the middle rounds. Developed pitchers. Hit on a few per year. Ride them for a few years. If I look at Cleveland I’m gonna make the prediction that Ober gets shopped this off-season if he is solid the next few months. They either ride Ryan and Lopez through their contracts or shop them a year from now. By then you have a better idea of your next crop of SP’s. Rinse and repeat. They won’t extend Ryan.

I would agree on Jeffers. As a guy to build around I think he is a prime candidate. Also as you pointed out we have no one else to catch and Tait is mildly far away. He would be a good candidate to split time with an aging Jeffers in 2-3years. I’d rather extend Jeffers than go shopping for a guy like Vazquez next offseason. I think they let Ryan’s natural progression play out along with Lopez. They bridge to the next crop of SP’s. As for Lewis, like other Boris clients maybe he plays it out till he’s a FA. Maybe he’s willing to take the guaranteed deal this winter the way things have gone for him. If you think Jenkins or Culpepper are legit then at least give them the deal locking them up for their prime. Keaschall… maybe this winter but they’ll have to see the next 2 months and next spring. Of course none of this probably plays out until ownership figures out what they’re doing.

I wasn’t judging you either. I was simply saying how it’s funny that a lot of people present plans that are not based on reality. My plan would be a full article and would be based on rationality. Yes we could trade all of those guys for something but like you said that probably mires us in a 5 year rebuild plan when that’s obviously not what the franchise is doing or wanting to do despite what the average person thinks. Did they trade a lot of guys? Yes. Did they gut the team? No. There’s still plenty of building blocks here and from a business model Derek Falvey and the Pohlads would never “gut” the team. Why? Because that would completely dry up their income stream.

I love how people plan these full scale rebuilds like it’s a video game and all these prospects turn into the 90th percentile outcome and the prospects you trade for all make it to the majors.

I think you do whatever you can to lock up Jenkins. Either next spring depending on how he looks in spring training or the following offseason. As far as Keaschall I believe he should get a deal in spring training if it looks like he took another step forward. Ober I believe is on the Cleveland SP track where Falvey came from. If he finishes out this year strong and continues what he did last night he’s probably shopped this winter. I believe Ryan and Pablo ride out their deals as bridges to the next SP core Consisting of Hill, Abel etc.

Love the article! The Twins lucked out on this one and it represents why the Twins shouldn’t be swimming in this end of the pool. These FA contracts almost never turn out worth it. Especially when ownership isn’t willing to supplant spending. They should have went all in after ‘23. The window was wide open to make a 2-3 year run. That window slammed shut when ownership decided to “right size” the product on the field which ultimately led to this point. Not saying we wouldn’t have gotten to this point eventually probably next year but ‘24 and ‘25 should’ve been spend what it takes to make a run. Instead the FO was hamstrung by ownership and here we are.