RonCoomersOPS

I don't blame Terry Ryan for this year's failings, but you're darn right I blame him for all the missed draft picks and the mediocrity of those that weren't complete misses, all the predictably bad free agent signings and contract extensions, the near total lack of player development, and all the 90 loss seasons that ultimately led up to his departure. The team was just awful during Terry Ryan's second stint with the team. 2021 notwithstanding, the team has been much improved under the new FO. And yes, Molitor was a really bad manager (maybe not as bad as his predecessor, but still objectively really bad). Most of the little bit of young talent he had to work with was underwhelming at best and looked totally lost at worst, and there was really no progression on his watch from any of what would become the Bomba Squad immediately after he left. Some of the guys (like Jake Odorizzi) that came in during his tenure were very mediocre while he managed them and immediately became all-star level guys when he left. It's no wonder that nobody has come calling for him since Baldelli took over.

There aren't many guys who can do what Garver can do, much less many guys who can do what he can do who are actually available at a reasonable cost. Fortunately for the Twins, Jeffers has a real chance at being one of those guys next year. My price tag for Garver would be very high to be sure (like "Martin and SWR, plus" high), but I think there's a good chance someone meets it if we make him available this winter.

And if not Martin, then Celestino probably will be.

Because it's damned near impossible to play LF and 1B at the same time.

I'm not outwardly excited about trading anybody if I'm Falvine. The cost associated with everyone is very, very high, and my price tag for Buxton is just this side of certifiably crazy. But I'm definitely listening intently on just about everyone. It's not overly likely that Polanco has another season like this last one, and I don't want to have to pay for past performance if I'm negotiating his next deal. But, at the same time, a guy who plays solid 2B and swats 25 homers while batting in the .280-.300 range is still awfully nice to have next year. If someone blows me away, I'm going to think really hard about it. I'm not quite sure about Arraez after this past season. He could be that guy who comes into Spring Training healthy and serves as a .330+ hitting leadoff guy next year, but he could also be a good hitter with mediocre defense everywhere. I want to believe, so my price tag for him is higher than that of Polanco. I like the swagger that Donaldson brings to the team, and I want my young guys to cut their teeth in the majors around a guy like him. I'm paying a lot for his services, but on the other hand he showed unexpectedly good durability and was a big part of the offense this year. I'd especially love for Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis to get plenty of exposure to him, but how do I manage that while still getting the kids into the lineup on a regular basis? In the end, I'm probably most likely to trade him this winter but not without several gut checks first. Buxton is going to have to personally insult my mother to her face for me to even think about backing away from contract negotiations. Yeah he's hurt a lot, but on the other hand when he's healthy he's arguably the best player in the league. My asking price gets my rival GMs to hang up on me several times this winter. I really don't want to move on from Kepler either, especially since his defense gives me a lot of roster flexibility for those times when Buxton is hurt. He's a guy that, if he begins sitting back on pitches more often, he might start beating the shift and put up video game numbers for a good long time. I don't want to be the FO that traded him away right before he does that. On the other hand, I think Trevor Larnach is an all-star right fielder before his contract is up, and I want to show ownership that I was right to pick him. My price for Kepler is almost as high as it is for Buxton. I like Garver. He's among the better hitting players in the league when healthy, and he's elite at the plate compared to the rest of the league's catchers. But, on the other hand, he's also on the wrong side of thirty and his situational hitting was pretty poor last year. And while I really like Jeffers, too, I'm not sure I want to risk the offensive drop-off that will happen when he eventually takes over for Garver just yet. I know that I'm likely to get a ridiculous haul for Garver if I were to move him this winter, so I probably do mention his name more often than the rest but also set his price tag just this side of what I'm asking for Buxton and Kepler.

This is a risky call, to a degree. Not sure I would have waived him, but maybe they saw something in his recovery that doesn't bode well for the future. Or, maybe they're biased toward pitchers who are 6 feet-plus or something. I guess all we can do at this point is hope he doesn't put it together for someone else, especially if that someone is a division rival.

His team kept fighting and actually wasn't half bad after the deadline. That's a better result than we've seen from *ahem* a few former managers during losing seasons, and I think it generally points to Baldelli's quality as a manager. I do think that it's kind of hard to grade this season as anything more than incomplete, though. It'll be interesting to see how the manager responds to any further adversity next year.

You're probably right. I just don't have any interest in finding out that you are wrong while not getting _something_ back for him. As for who I would drop to keep Rooker, maybe Astudillo. I'm not opposed to keeping him as a depth piece in St. Paul and letting a Kyle Garlick or Jake Cave go to keep a roster spot open for him.

Because it's half a season worth of irregular MLB at bats backed by plenty of power in the minors? Because some guys (see Nelson Cruz) figure it out late? Not saying he is the next Nelson Cruz by any means, or even that I am dead set on keeping him moving forward, but you would sure hate to have him figure it out at the plate with another team and get nothing in return. We let that happen once already, and Twins fans still complain about it almost 20 years later.

Why on earth would we just release Rooker, especially at a time when it looks very likely that the NL will get a permant DH? That's the kind of knee-jerk move that gets an FO fired, IMO. Maybe he's not a Twin next year, but he should have enough of a market that you should be able to trade him for a useful player of some kind.

I don't think Garver is a lock next year. Neither is Sano, Buxton, Kepler, or Arraez in my view. Cave, Thorpe, and Smeltzer are all at serious risk of losing their spots, too, with Cave and Thorpe almost certainly gone. Pineda is the only one from your "Likely Gone" category that I think has a real chance to come back, and I think that really depends on what they get back from trading Garver, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and/or Arraez as well as what the FO think of Jax and Barnes. I wouldn't be surprised if all of your Rule 5 notable prospects get added, plus Palacios and Severino.

I'd give them a solid B/B+. They inherited a terrible manager and a bit of hope (but very little depth) from a FO whose contemporaries died from the fallout of a large meteor strike in southern Mexico. While they've not gotten everything right, they have done well to develop the young players they inherited, greatly improve organizational depth, and radically modernize the organization. They've also done really well to make the most out of their expiring (or soon to be expiring) contracts, which is something their Precambrian predecessor never got right. If they're able to re-sign Buxton and find a Maeda replacement this winter, develop a couple more of their top young prospects into major league contributors, and return to a ~55% win rate next year, then I think they're firmly in the B+/A- range. If they can further find a way to win a couple of playoff series in the next couple of years, then I think they're strong A candidates.

Seriously. This was about as far over the top as you could go without coming around to the bottom again.

I don't know that I'm so quick to move on from Smeltzer or Barnes, but I sure would like to see them pull a Bailey Ober and add a couple of clicks to their fastballs this winter. Barnes in particular looks okay-ish on paper, but you can see even without watching him that he lacks a real put-away pitch. A little extra giddy-up on his fastball might be enough to keep him around as a 5th starter or long relief guy heading into next season. Thorpe isn't and hasn't ever really been a major league pitcher. I'd love to hand his roster spot to a Winder or a Balazovic.

...they said over and over and over again to Torii Hunter and Michael Cuddyer, shortly before both players waived at it yet again. If they got lucky, they'd accidentally hit one to deep second base/short right field. At least when Sano connects, it's not some loopy little fly ball to short right field. I'll take his light tower power and the strikeouts that come along with it over the two most frustrating Twins legends' approaches every time.

Larnach is a right fielder. They need to find a way to play him there. If I had to guess, I'd say that one of Celestino or Martin is our long term LF. I like Chris Taylor as our opening day shortstop. He won't command the money or term that one of the top guys will, but he will likely provide the competence we're lacked all year from Simmons while we wait for Lewis and/or Martin to emerge. And, because he won't cost a ton, he will afford us the opportunity to invest in the pitching we desperately need.

That's probably fine. We could just as easily give his roster spot to Cruz or keep Astudillo, then.

C Jeffers (Rortvedt, with Garver traded) 1B Kirilloff (Sano) 2B Polanco (Arraez, Gordon) 3B Donaldson (Arraez, Sano) SS TBD (Trade, probably) LF Celestino (Rooker) CF Buxton (Celestino) RF Larnach (Rooker, Kirilloff, with Kepler traded) DH Sano (Rooker, Arraez, Donaldson) I'd like to try to find a way to keep Astudillo if I can, because I think he brings some non-stat value to the team.

Hard pass. We don't need a shortstop that can't hit, and we really don't need one that can't field. We further don't need a second baseman. I'd rather try Arraez at second and Polanco at short again than trade for Torres, and I don't really want to try that alignment again.

This is a very good point, but I still don't think he's the worst FA the Twins have ever signed. Worst teammate or worst employee, on the other hand....

Nolasco was at least several orders of magnitude worse than Simmons, and he's just the first one that jumps to mind from recent memory.

I think Ober, Ryan, and Dobnak are all but guaranteed a spot in next year's rotation. It would be fun to see them sign a big name free agent, but I think the FO is more likely to move someone like an Arraez or a Garver for a pre-arb arm. The fifth spot will probably be someone on a one or two year deal -- a Greinke or a Verlander would be great, but I'd guess it'll be someone like Pineda.

*Carl Pavano and Mike Hampton have entered the chat*

Bailey Ober was traded in July?

Of this group, I'd guess probably Petty. That said, I think it will be Woods Richardson.