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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'd take that bet: Wallner has had an OPS over .800 every season in MLB where he played at least 75 games. But you've already given yourself an out to discount it, so... I am looking at his overall stats, and the OPS+ of 122 is a little disappointing from Wallner this season, but it's still well above average. It would be ideal if Wallner hit for more average, played better defense, etc. But he certainly can "survive" with even his current production. If he gets back to his career averages he's a dangerous threat in a lineup that needs more scary hitters, not less.
  2. jmlease1
    You realize that there's only 30 guys in all of baseball who are both hitting .280 or better and qualify for the batting title, right? If you add 50 pts of BA to Matt Wallner he's basically Juan Soto. If the only acceptable answer for whether a player should be on the Twins is "he must be an all-star" then you're going to be disappointed forever. Wallner isn't perfect, but he's a very useful hitter, especially against RHP. I'd love it if some of the guys in the minors came up and played so well that it pushed Wallner into a DH role. But we're not there yet, and the idea that he's part of the problem is absurd.
  3. jmlease1
    I'll believe it when I see it. Not getting taken for a ride by these crappy owners again. I mean, it's logical. Of course, if the owners get what they want after locking the players out and change the financial landscape for the Twins long-term where they can easily generate net revenue every year...why would they sell? 3rd Generation Joe can keep playing with the fancy toy and the rest of the family keeps cashing checks. If they've solved their liquidity problem, they might just keep the appreciating asset. I'm certainly not going to trust Shill Shooter's "reporting".
  4. jmlease1
    yes, because RBI's are a good evaluator of how good a player is. 🙄 And not "bad at every facet", because you're ignoring his ability to hit for power, which is seriously valuable. Is he a bad baserunner? He's not fast, for sure, but he doesn't make big mistakes on the basepaths either. Hell, he even swiped a bag the other night. His arm doesn't grade out below everyone; it doesn't grade out quite as high as maybe it should considering how strong it is, but he's obviously not below average out there with the arm because you see guys hold up rather than challenge him. But I get it: you don't like a player with his profile: too many strikeouts and you'd rather have a Nick Punto-type bunting more from your RF. I'm not pretending that Wallner is an all-star, but he's an above average starter and we need more guys like that on the Twins, not fewer.
  5. jmlease1
    No, career OPS+ of 133 is why. I don't care if he's from Forest Lake, I care that he can hit on a team that needs it. Sano was a good hitter for the Twins when he was healthy (and when they didn't do stupid things like play him in RF). I guess some people just hate strikeouts so much they'd rather throw away a good player that watch a whiff. I don't understand why it's so much more important for some people that a guy hits 40 more easy outs than strike out. It's still an out.
  6. jmlease1
    Rosario is absolutely locked in right now. Good for him! I love it when a player pushes the organization. Make them put you on the 40-man through sheer performance. How do we feel about Winokur's season? He's been pretty inconsistent this season and has struggled to make contact in Cedar Rapids. He's also only 20 and been moved fairly aggressively. Time to move him off SS for good, maybe let him concentrate on 3B or CF while he works on his hitting? I'm very high on Morris, but he needs to stay healthy.
  7. jmlease1
    titles can't be tongue-in-cheek or sarcastic? yeesh.
  8. jmlease1
    Buxton. Deserved all-star this season, and not just for his defense. Dude has a 135 OPS+, which is good at any position and great in CF. If this is close to who Keaschall actually is as a hitter, he'll be a star. His bWAR pace over 162 games right now is an awesome 7.8, which is nearly MVP levels. Since he can likely improve significantly defensively, there's a potential star in there at least. That said, I'd like to see him do this for more than 27 games... But stars are hard to find and rare to emerge from the farm system. It's why people are so excited to see Walker Jenkins rising. It's why plucking Joe Ryan from the Rays was such a great move. People talk about the Twins having a great farm system because they have a lot of depth and players with the potential to be stars. They're getting a lot of prospects to majors, which isn't easy. How do you define a star? Dozier played at an all-star level for several seasons, was he a star? If you're only judging on MVP-level players you're going to be pretty disappointed...
  9. jmlease1
    It's not that people are actually confusing them for being the same person. It's that they treat them as if they were producing the same on the field. They get lumped together all the time as being lead-footed LH sluggers who can't defend and don't hit enough and aren't very good. That's the point. It's not that people actually mistake for being the same person. 🙄 Hells bells, you're doing it right here, saying you're fine with either Larnach or Wallner at DH. You should not be fine with Larnach's production for DH. It's been far worse than Wallner's, and that's the point.
  10. jmlease1
    This is the challenge with adding any of these guys for the rest of the season. we're only going to get 1 position player with the tiny roster expansion, and the only semi-logical candidates to send out are Julien (who you kind of want to get the same long look at, because if he hits he could still be with the team), Outman (who is getting this kind of look to see if he has any future with the team), and frankly Clemens (who has tottered back down to earth with a poor June and a terrible august sandwiching a good July and an excellent May). Gasper is the backup catcher right now, so you could swap him for Cardenas? But this is also the first time Gasper has gotten more consistent ABs to see what he can do too. Sabato hasn't earned a shot with the way he's hit in AAA (pretty average for the Int'l League), and until Eeles shows he has some pop back in his swing coming off the injury, it's hard to say he's earned the MLB nod either. I'd give Fedko the September promotion, and if you want to sell me on swapping Gasper for Cardenas, I could be convinced.
  11. jmlease1
    I think the author didn't want to single individuals out on this website, which is more than fair. But if you've been reading Wallner does get lumped in with Larnach frequently as a player that Rocco and/or the front office has "failed" to develop. If you read any thread where the topic comes up about the team's inability to develop position players, someone will put Wallner in the same category as Larnach, almost always because of Wallner's high strikeouts or low batting average. I simply don't have time to go back through various threads and quote people (and I'm not interested in calling out individuals any more than I already have), but it happened in a discussion I was having on this site yesterday.
  12. jmlease1
    Wallner has a career OPS of .912 with runners in scoring position. With 2 outs and RISP it's 1.048 Larnach has a career OPS of .762 with RISP, and .807 with RISP and 2 outs. It's a pretty substantial difference. 2025 Matt Wallner may be below his career averages, but we're only talking 52 ABs, so maybe the issue is more about the Twins not getting enough runners on base in front of Wallner than him being missing the mythical "clutchiness" gene or something.
  13. jmlease1
    They do fill a similar role, but Wallner has been so much better at it that while talking about them in the context of the role is fine, treating them as if they're similar players who produce similar results is the problem. Wallner is a good player, a productive hitter who brings elite power to the table and a solid OBP. Larnach is a platoon LH bat who doesn't abuse RHP enough to make up for the fact that he's unplayable against LHP. They can be linked by role, but not treated as if they're the same player. the numbers are really clear.
  14. jmlease1
    As noted above, you have to get guys on base in order to run, but also you're probably not going to ask guys like Wallner & Lewis to run when they're coming off leg injuries, Correa is very slow, France can't run worth a damn, etc. Martin, Julien, and Keaschall are more capable of running than Correa, France, or Jonah Bride. (or even Castro, who had slowed noticeably). They're more capable of getting on base than Kiersey. And while I'd love to have Buxton run even more, at this point don't you have to trust him to go when he judges it right rather than sending orders? You have to have speed in order to use it. Twins have been pretty slow with guys like Larnach, Wallner, Correa, Jeffers, Vazquez, France, Santana, Lee etc. They're getting more athletic and looking healthier, but they're still not one of the faster teams.
  15. jmlease1
    I think that's right. If you drop Rosario's dreadful start, his profile looks at least as good as Fedko's at the plate, but April did happen. And while I don't think Fedko should really be playing CF, he's a much better defender than Rosario at this point. I suspect the Twins will try to slip him through in the Rule 5, which is probably fair. Even if he's taken he'll be hard to keep on a 26-man roster. But I still like a lot of things about Rosario, and finding some RH thump to balance all those LH outfielders could matter.
  16. jmlease1
    Rosario looks like he's finishing the season strong. That awful (and it was truly dreadful) April has pulled down his overall numbers quite a bit, but he's really raking right now. His monthly splits are instructive, I think: when he's taking his walks and not hacking at everything, he does well. If he loses that patience he gets into trouble. He's had 3 good months, a not so good month and an awful one, and in the good ones he's taken 18+ walks. In the bad ones, he's been in single digits. Wonder what his evaluation looks like from the Twins at this point? I think he has to get added to the 40-man this season or be exposed in the Rule 5? Wonder if they'll try to slip him through? He's not a good defender, and his bat probably isn't going to be good enough to hang on a squad all season, but he's still an interesting prospect.
  17. jmlease1
    Offense was really good last night. Nice to not get smacked around by any lefty that takes the bump for once. Not a good day for the pitching staff; we sent out 6 guys and only two of them got the job done. SWR in particular can't give up hard contact like that. He looked rusty for sure. Keaschall continues to look good at the plate and wobbly in the field. He's got some work to do out there. Be great if Sands is back on track, because we are desperately short on bullpen options.
  18. jmlease1
    Some nice performances from the prospects. I don't really care that Walker Jenkins didn't crush it in his first game with the Saints; I find it exciting that he's already in Saint Paul, and is there based on performance and merit, not just because of his draft status. Nice to see a Big Fly from GG; he's had a good week and hopefully he's getting on track. Hasn't been a ton of power from him in AAA so far, and he needs to keep drawing walks like he did earlier in the season. If he's swinging too much he could get into the Miranda trap. But he's having a nice season and showing why the Twins wanted him in the Polanco trade. Good to see Culpepper have a 2 hit game. He's been scrabbling a lot lately, and is probably feeling worn down. Be great if he can get a day or two off down the stretch, gather himself and finish strong. He's done enough this season to make me think he'll be starting in AAA next year, and hopefully he can get on a good offseason program that helps him handle the long grind of a pro season. Happy birthday to Eduardo Tait! Lots of potential with this kid. Hopefully he can start showing a little more patience at the plate, but he's doing just fine in high A at his age.
  19. jmlease1
    I took a look at the Twins hit rate on first round picks (including compensatory picks) going back through MacPhail. There's some grim pickings. Andy MacPhail had 16 picks. 12 of them at least made it to MLB, and you had 2 legit star players in Torii Hunter and Chuck Knoblauch. After that? I wouldn't call any of them even a decent starter (Todd Walker is the closest: career bWAR of 10.5, only 1 season where he posted a bWAR over 2). He did draft Varitek, but since he couldn't get him to sign, I ruled him out. 3 top 10 picks, none were quality starters Terry Ryan (I) had 20 picks and 15 of them made it to MLB. 1 star (Mauer), though I was on the fence about Span. 6 more guys who were at least solid starters (this is where I put Span, who never made an all-star team, etc) 6 top 10 picks, only 2 hits in Mauer and Cuddyer. Smith had 9 picks, and only 3 made it to MLB. No stars here, only two solid players (Gibson and Hicks). Not great. Xero top 10 picks, though. Ryan (II) had 7 picks and all 7 made it to MLB. But outside of Buxton (a star, even with his injuries) and Berrios (a solid pitcher for sure) none of the other firsts did anything. 4 top 10 picks; only hit was Buxton. Falvey has made 15 picks and 6 have made MLB so far. (I'd argue you can't exactly count picks from 2023 onwards against him for not already being in MLB?) No stars yet. 2 solid players...but Rooker really "made it" in Oakland. But he was drafted here. I know some people hate Wallner, but in this context he has to be treated as a solid player. 3 top 10 picks to date: Lewis has been injured and lately ineffective, jury still out on Lee, and Jenkins hasn't made the majors yet. Where does that leave us? Several things come to mind: Just looking at first round picks doesn't tell us enough It's pretty common for Twins first round picks to make it to MLB, but that doesn't mean a lot The Bill Smith era was pretty bad, but no high draft picks Ryan II started good and fell off fast, with 4 top 10 picks and only Buxton yielding anything Falvey needs Jenkins to hit or his record on firsts gets very thin Those supplemental picks have missed a lot in the last 40 years.
  20. jmlease1
    They do, but the economics for the NFL are pretty different. revenue sharing is much stronger, and the locality differences are much less pronounced. No one in the NFL has to rely on localized media rights deals to form a substantial part of the revenue, and the actual costs to putting on a game in terms of overhead are also less (an NFL stadium is much bigger, but you're looking at 9-12 games a season to put on, including preseason & playoffs, as opposed to 81-90). There's no farm system to support either. We have no idea how the Wilfs would behave as owners of the Twins. That said, we've seen enough of Team Pohlad over the past 40 years to be ready to take a risk with about anyone this side of John Fisher...
  21. jmlease1
    well, you've said it yourself: a GOOD 1B makes that play. an average or below average one doesn't. France maybe makes that play (he was doing well with scoops) but he's also had a lot more experience at the position. Santana makes that play, but he's a gold glover. Julien has been ok at 1B, just looks inexperienced. He's made some nice plays (looked confident starting that double play) and some shaky ones. If he's gone it'll be because he's not hitting enough.
  22. jmlease1
    Seriously. It's really a shocker how staggeringly tone-deaf the organization has been over the past 2 seasons. Starting with the "right-sizing" of payroll it's been blunder after blunder, a textbook case in how not to speak or act about your franchise. (If I were a marketing major in need of a capstone project, a "What Not to Do" about the MN Twins would be a slam dunk.) I can't think of a single statement from ownership that has been well-received since 2023, except for them saying they were putting the team up for sale. (which if course, was a bait & switch) Every public comment from the front office has been meaningless pablum. Rocco almost seems life-like in comparison, but as team spokesperson he hasn't done well either. (not that he's got much to work with with the team struggling so much) They've bungled their media rights, and compounded their lack of foresight and ability to negotiate with a staggering inability to communicate effectively with fans about it. FFS, even once they finally pulled the plug on Bally they still couldn't get their act together so people knew how to watch games until the last minute, and were incommunicado throughout. Everything from them screams cluelessness or disinterest. Their most recent public statement look like they were written by AI, not an actual human with any connection of compassion for fans. There are some players on this team and prospects that could make it worth watching, and even possibly turn the ship around more quickly than seems likely with the frequently lifeless product we're getting right now...but the leadership has given us no reason to believe in them. The Pohlads are prioritizing their bottom line (again). We don't even know who the new partners are, and there's little reason to believe they'll get a real voice, especially if 3rd Generation Joe is still calling the shots. Falvey handled the sell-off in callous fashion and then didn't have the courage to really stand up behind it. While I don't have the built-in hate for Rocco that some do...what has he done recently to instill any additional faith that things are going in the right direction? Or calm the waters after a massive sell-off? Worst part is, ownership does not care.
  23. jmlease1
    Yes, but he's slow and strikes out, so we'd better get rid of him quick. /sarcasm.
  24. jmlease1
    I'll give Ober credit for battling and limiting the damage, but he did not look good. Fastball velocity was down again (season low) and the Jays were dialed in on him. Springer especially had his number. Have to wonder if Pablo were back if Ober wouldn't be getting shut down again. The baserunning is a mess. Martin keeps making big mistakes and it doesn't seem like Tommy Watkins helps anyone out there. I'm not really sure what Keaschall is doing out there at times, taking a nice lead and then dancing out further when the pitcher throws but not actually running? He's distracting his own hitter more than anything with some of that. Give a little credit to the offense, who kept grinding and did a good job of getting runners on base, and some big flies brought 'em home. Nice to see Wallner hit a bomb with runners on, but I'm sure many people still want him sent packing. An actual Gasper sighting! Still think he's more of a Quad-A player, but you never know. I'm fine with giving him regular time the rest of the season and figuring it our for sure. He did well against the Jays, at least. Not impressed with Outman, who has an unfortunate name for a hitter.
  25. jmlease1
    Considering the Pohlads have been leaking that they were losing $40M this season on a $135M payroll (YMMV on whether you believe them; I don't believe they have earned any trust on finances), expecting them to put a payroll of $120M together is...optimistic. It's part of why I expect them to move Pablo in the offseason, not sign any marquee free agents, and have the whole thing sitting at more like $80M, with plenty of excuses related to local tv revenue.
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