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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Biggest weaknesses: bullpen: need one more guy we can count on for the late inning work. Rogers is great, and Parker has the experience to not worry about him too much. It's fair to be concerned about May and whether or not guys are going to start figuring out Harper/Magill5th starter. I'm not convinced on Pineda, and at some point we have to stop writing off every poor performance as "well, he's still coming back after Tommy John". I swear, we've changed his name to Michael He's Coming Back From Tommy John Pineda. Dude is 22 months removed from the surgery.OBP in the lineup. We are slugging the hell out of the ball, but we could use a few more baserunners (picking nits at this point, I think, but Rosario's OBP is under .300, Schoop's is only .310, and we could use 1-2 more guys who push that OBP over .350. But if there's a weakness in this lineup, that's probably it.)
  2. jmlease1
    Glad to see guys finally getting healthy. not going to overreact to 1 outing on a guy coming off injury. Just hope they can all get consistent PT and stay healthy well into the summer. Have to wonder if Gordon wasn't pressing a bit seeing how well Arraez is doing in MLB...
  3. jmlease1
    Astudillo is our only other catcher right now with Garver on the shelf. He's on the club until garver returns, no way we roll with 1 catcher active...if Castro got hurt mid-game CJ Cron would be catching! Arraez likely moves back down when Cruz returns, because they want Arraez to play (he's got very little experience above A ball), not sit on the bench and with Cruz at DH & Sano back we really don't have room for an additional infielder. Marwin & Adrianza will sweep up those ABs. Good win last night on a really successful road trip. It would be great to get the sweep, but winning two road series is always good regardless of what happens tonight. There's a good argument to be made that the West is the best division in the AL; Seattle's the worst team there, probably and even they aren't trash. Angels, Rangers, and A's could all compete for the Wild Card.
  4. jmlease1
    Angels are not a bad club at all and they have a very solid lineup right now. Not too many easy outs in there and they seem to really go deep into counts with us. Trout is the best player in baseball (even if we've kept him in check), La Stella & Goodwin are having breakout years, guys like Ohtani and Lucroy are not hitters you can sleep on, and even the faded version of Pujols is too smart to be an EASY out. So nice job by the pitching staff again. Rogers outing is why the 8-man bullpen makes me nervous. He looked rusty. Relievers are going to get rusty if they're only pitching every 5-6 days, and unless our starters begin turning in some consistent sub-par efforts, some of these guys are gonna sit too much. We also don't really have a long man in there, which makes the alignment goofy as well: there isn't a single guy in the bullpen you could run out there for more than 2 innings and even that may be pushing it for them. Luis Arraez is off to a wonderful start, good for him. I still think he's the right choice to go back down when some of these guys start coming back off the injured list because I do think he needs to play and it's going to be tough to find him the ABs. Adrianza doesn't need the time in the field as much. I'm also not ready to cut Adrianza loose based on a handful of games from a guy who has 89 games above A ball, and only 3 at AAA. He's doing great and it looks like he's someone that has a future, but I'm consistently baffled by the idea that we should immediately dump a guy off the roster as soon as a young guy shows the first flash of talent...
  5. jmlease1
    There really are no breaks in the lineup, even with Garver on the shelf. Marwin is the only Twins regular with an OPS+ under 100 right now, and that's entire due to his brutal start in March/April. He's doing damage right now and is definitely a hitter you can't sleep on. Even with Cruz & Garver out, the Twins have a deep and potent lineup. Sano is probably going to scuffle a bit while getting used to MLB pitching again, but woe betide any pitcher foolish enough to groove him a fastball down in the count. ESPN predicted that Polanco will fall off and that his power surge is mostly a mirage. I hope he proves them very very wrong. Bullpen is a fair concern. I think putting feelers out on Kimbrel is a good idea. Start figuring out that option sooner rather than later. Romero has disappointed, that's for sure. I'd be more comfortable with the rotation if it felt like there were more/stronger options in AAA if a guy falters. Gonsalves hasn't pitched, Stewart has moments but has a bit of a wire act to make his pitch mix/approach work, and it's unclear if Thorpe is MLB ready yet. Littell doesn't look ready to me. How much are we prepared to give up for Bumgartner?
  6. jmlease1
    .252/.312/.496 vs RHP in 2019: OPS .808 .234/.284/.408 vs RHP career: OPS .693 so far this season he is destroying LHP (OPS of 1.026) in a small sample. Career, he's shown almost no platoon split. It will be interesting to see where that lands by season's end with a more representative sample on the LHP. The approach looks great this year. Every time I see him lay off that damn low & away slider and made good contact on balls in the zone, I start to believe.
  7. jmlease1
    nice to see Kirilloff have a good outing; he'd been scuffling a bit lately. (I'm not worried about him) Graterol is doing fine. I'm baffled by the people who are already clamoring for him to be promoted (and seemingly to MLB!) considering how little he's actually pitched. Last year he pitched 102 innings between low & high A ball, in his first year in full season ball. Before that, he threw 51 professional innings in 3 years. He's pitching well right now, but he definitely has some developmental work to be done to refine his approach and manage more advanced hitters. His K/BB ratio is a career worst right now. He's still a puppy, why would we want to throw him to the wolves?
  8. jmlease1
    Perez continues to roll. The change in approach certainly seems to be sustainable. I wish he'd walk fewer guys, but as long as he's getting Ks like this, it's erasable. I don't love the roster alignment right now; despite the couple of games against the angels, I'm not convinced that we need 8 guys in the bullpen, but maybe this is a more temporary arrangement?
  9. jmlease1
    I'm bummed for Addison Reed, he's really struggling and the loss of velocity may be ending his career; I was hoping he might have a good bounceback year. But I am encouraged by the Twins designating him for assignment: no scholarships on this team.
  10. jmlease1
    the "unwritten rules" and how they evolve and change over time can be one of the reasons baseball is weird and fun. The pitcher is an idiot, if he's thinking that he's not going to get chucked immediately for throwing at a guy he thinks showed him up. The manager can bitch all he wants, but it's not like the pitcher slipped, he gunned it right at Lewis. I'm surprised we didn't see the ump roll his eyes out of his head.
  11. jmlease1
    Pineda...man, I don't know. Every time I thought he was getting into a groove he'd lob a meatball over the plate that would get smoked for a dinger. He's getting plenty of swinging strikes, but not getting enough Ks. I just don't feel that confident when he's starting, but maybe he's still pitching his way back into form after the injuries. Duffey made the game look a little too close, giving up the 3-run bomb hurt. He's got to do better than that, but at least he was able to give the rest of the 'pen the night off in a game where Seattle had to go deep into theirs. I like LaTroy on color too. He's more animated than Justin, but he does get a little distracted. Fine in a game that wasn't all that competitive, but I'd hate for him to fall into a pattern of yuckfests in closer games. When LaTroy is analyzing pitching patterns and pitch sequencing, it's really interesting and informative. I will definitely take this version of Byron Buxton all year. I don't know if it's the coaching staff, improved health, being mad he didn't get the call up last year, or just needing the time to get it figured out but I'm glad it seems to be clicking for him.
  12. jmlease1
    Way to go, Ben Rortvedt! He's off to a very nice start in AA, hope it helps him settle in and have a great rest of the season. He's definitely improved his stock over the last 2 seasons. Think Larnach is a candidate for a midseason promotion? He seems to have a fine handle on the strike zone and while I'd like to see some more power production, it is the FSL.
  13. jmlease1
    Hildenberger had to get sent down. he's a mess out there right now, he's fooling no one...he's had one good outing in his last six, and it's not like they've all been high leverage situations. His May has been abominable, so time to go back down to Rochester and see if he can get straightened out. I don't think you panic on the Twins' bullpen yet, though. Parker, Rogers, and Harper have all been fine. May has been a little wobbly at times, but should be fine (unless he keeps walking 4 per 9...). Let's see what we can get out of Duffy, Magill, and Morin this month to see if they can fill up those 6th-7th inning jags. I'm liking the Ks out of Duffy & Magill, not loving the WHIP. I'm still not convinced Morin is anything other than Just Another Guy, but he's done enough so far that it's worth looking at him longer. But I do hope the twins are willing to explore Kimbrel as an option. I'm assuming they're not willing to surrender the pick and basically everyone is out right now until June on him absent a major injury to a closer with a contender. But this team is showing enough competitiveness that they need to consider what it might take to bring him in. Now we as fans also need to realize that he probably doesn't pitch for 2 weeks after signing in MLB...and might struggle with control for a while too while he gets into game shape. The Buxton question is interesting. He's playing very well: hitting with power, solid OBP, defense is stellar as always, and he's staying on the field. Are you better off moving up up where he gets more ABs, maybe gets the team off to fast starts...or do you follow the old "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" rule? I honestly don't know. Would it really make that much impact? I'll admit, I'm just happy that he's hitting. He could put up a 5 bWAR season and really put himself back on the map. I love this guy, he's one of the most fun players the twins have had and I feel lucky we get to watch him play.
  14. jmlease1
    Stinks about Garver. He was absolutely killing it at the plate and doing a very solid job behind it too. but the lineup is actually the area where we are better suited to overcome an injury, so points to the FO on that one. If Cruz misses time too, you can slot Sano in for some DH time as well as 3B, Marwin keeps getting time at 3B, 1B, LF and we have better catching depth at MLB than we could hope for with La Tortuga & Castro, so it's not a disaster and injuries WILL happen. It will be interesting to see how Duffy performs.
  15. jmlease1
    not really. And this is a reminder for people already clamoring for him to be the next guy up for the rotation: He missed a full year in 2016. In 2017, he only pitched 40 innings coming off injury. In 2018 (his first year in full-season ball at age 19) he threw 102 innings. He's only made 38 starts in his professional career. That arm is a prize, and if we want him to develop into a top starter let's not get crazy. If he can throw 140-150 innings this year, and stay strong all season, he'll be in a great position for the franchise. at age 21. Shame about Nick Gordon getting hurt again. Hopefully it isn't lengthy, because he'd gotten off to such a nice start when he finally got back into the lineup. He's shown the ability to really hit when repeating a level, so it's been my hope that last year was an adjustment year and his start was a hopeful sign that might be true.
  16. jmlease1
    Boy howdy am I excited about this news. I've probably barely been on the rational side of the curve with Rortvedt this season, but I can't help it. He's been doing everything he needs to do to keep progressing and he's earned the promotion. Here's hoping his hit tool keeps improving at AA!
  17. jmlease1
    Balazovic is really impressing. You have to assuming the K/9 is going to regress somewhat, but the control fits fine with a guy who doesn't give up tons of hits & gets the Ks. KLaw had him on a 4 pitch mix: mid 90's fastball, plus slider, change that needed some work and a curve...anyone know how the change & curve are progressing? It will be interesting to see how he handles a full season of work (only 61.2 innings last season) and if his velocity and control stay in place for a full year. The stuff and approach seem to be there, so let's hope the stamina goes along with it. He's certainly a prospect to get excited about. Larnach doesn't seem to be having any trouble moving up to Ft. Myers, very nice stats for the FSL. I think there's still some more power to unlock there, but some of that regression is likely due to league/park effects. He's on a very good path, it will be interesting to see if he gets an aggressive push this year at midseason.
  18. jmlease1
    The home plate ump was really inconsistent in his strike zone, especially low and away. It kinda felt like morneau wanted to really rip the guy a couple of times and got elbowed by a producer. Hard to know for sure how much impact it was, because he was consistently inconsistent (it's not like he was handing Detroit the outside corner every inning and squeezing the Twins every inning) but it definitely seemed to hurt the Twins more. I mean, this clown even stepped out to confront Astudillo when our catcher hadn't even turned his head or done anything to show the guy up.
  19. jmlease1
    I think there's still room for a pitcher who induces a lot of weak contact in MLB, but in order to be successful long term that pitcher needs to not walk guys while not grooving the ball in on those 3 ball counts. You just can't afford the extra baserunners, because you're giving up more hits too and the double play isn't always going to come. It was unsustainable for Gibson because he was churning out a WHIP of 1.5. Two years where he'd have games where he'd go 8 innings and guys are beating the ball into the turf, then get knocked around for 4-5 runs and be done after 5. Gibson changed the pitch mix, upped the Ks and cut down the hits putting himself into a much more consistent and sustainable approach. If Stewart can drop the walks while not getting more hittable, he won't necessarily have to change his mix and approach to be a sturdy innings eater. I don''t know if he has the command to make that happen, but maybe Wes Johnson can help him figure that out too.
  20. jmlease1
    Rooker definitely has some flaws, but the power is still impressive. He's been pushed through the system fairly aggressively, so getting 1 repeat in AAA for some finishing wouldn't be a terrible result. But let's see where he finishes the season, and if he can trade some K's for BBs. Smeltzer impresses. If he keeps shutting guys down in AAA that's going to look like a very fine acquisition.
  21. jmlease1
    Solid job by Stewart. He's absolutely right: he needs to get at least one more pitch working in order to stick up here, but he did a nice job once that sinker started sinking like usual and commanding the pitches that were working for those last 3 innings. I''d say he showed why the Twins have him on the Rochester shuttle and how he can compete in MLB. I'm starting to really enjoy Cron's laser shot HRs. I know launch angle is the big thing right now, but hardhit line drives play well in any era, and its pretty fun to watch those streak out. He's been a good signing, worked his way out of an early slump and seems to be seeing the ball very well right now. And the defense has been very very good, something Morrison never brought to the table. I was surprised Marwin was back today, that collision looked really awful. Glad to hear there were no concussion issues and that he's feeling ok. He certainly played well again; Marwin in May is the guy we were expecting to get and he's another weapon.
  22. jmlease1
    It's not a year of control, it's an option year. reduces the number of times you can send the guy back down to work in the minors if he struggles in the majors. It's hard to think that Graterol isn't learning things in AA. For one thing, you have significantly more advanced hitters and increasing numbers of hitters who have real chances of playing in MLB. more sophisticated approaches at the plate, as well as working with other pitchers who have more refined repertoires. Look, I don't want to hold him back if he's ready and its fine to bring a guy up from AA straight to the majors, but I don't see too many scenarios where Graterol comes up to MLB as anything other than a reliever later in the year. In other news, Garver looks so confident at the plate right now. Sure doesn't seem to have any aftereffects from the concussion which is terrific news. He's got a plan up there, no question. Hope Marwin really is ok. That looked really scary last night (and the slomo was awful). Fortunately, with Astudillo coming back we have some depth if he needs some time off.
  23. jmlease1
    Good for Raley! If he can be adequate defensively in the OF to give himself some positional flexibility he may have a future, especially with hitting like this. I think that's going to be critical in the future for a lot of these sluggers; you're going to see fewer and fewer pure DHs because roster spots are at such a premium for position players. Hopefully Raley has figuring something out at the plate and this is more who he is. Rooker has legit power, but the low BA and loads of Ks are concerning. He hasn't been walking enough to be a real "3 true outcomes" player that allows you to overlook his flaws yet. I'm rooting for him, but he's going to either need to make more consistent contact or draw quite a few more BBs. Jax is an interesting player. It will be interesting to see whether his stuff holds up all season with him pounding the strike zone; he's thrown so few innings in his pro career that we just don't know about him yet. He's certainly not afraid of the level of competition, and is off to a strong start. Have to feel like he stays in AA this year, especially having had such a light workload as a pro. (Fall league again or winter ball candidate so he can pitch more innings?)
  24. jmlease1
    I'm sorry, but it's a ridiculous idea to bring up Graterol at this point. He's only 7 starts in at AA and you want to toss him in the fire (and burn an option year) to pitch in the doubleheader? He's not even on the 40-man yet. Be patient on Graterol, he's the best option we have to develop an ace out of the minors right now, that's far more important than grabbing him for a doubleheader against the Tigers in May. Stewart is the right choice, not just because of where he falls in Rochester's rotation but because he's also pitched in MLB and had a couple of successful outings. He's also going to understand that he's on the Rochester shuttle until he proves it. Thorpe is a guy you want to bring up when he's going to have a chance to stick for more than a spot start, and hes shown he still has things to do in AAA. He only made 4 starts there last season. Littell is certainly an option, and will probably get the next shot if Stewart tanks it, but he got rocked pretty hard when he was up last year. Poppen isn't on the 40-man either, and has made exactly 1 start above AA, and frankly I'm not prepared to say hes better than Stewart at all. He's a year older than Stewart and while he deserved the promotion out of AA, the shiny ERA is a bit deceptive. He's walking way too many batters to have any confidence that he's ready to face MLB pitching. Stewart is the right call for now.
  25. jmlease1
    I'm guessing Blankenhorn will still get some ABs in the infield this season, but it's an interesting question. He may have finally figured it out and is unlocking that power potential that we hoped might be there. I was pretty down on Blankenhorn after last season; he didn't have a great year at Ft. Myers, he was awful in the AFL, he just was starting to look like a guy who was getting capped out against better competition. Happy to be wrong about him. Still early, still small sample size, but it's really good news that jumping up a level early in the year hasn't slowed him down this year. Rough night for Sano, but at least it wasn't a 3-4K outing. sometimes the ball doesn't drop.
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