kab21
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Everything posted by kab21
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This would be a more interesting hypothetical in 2-3 years when the Twins at least the structure of a playoff team in place. Cano would make the team better but there are holes literally everywhere on the team and they are mostly filled with terrible players. There's only so much one player can do and then he's 35ish and headed to a long, expensive decline. I will predict a 9 yr 225M contract. Of course I'm an optimist that several of Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Meyer can become avg or better players (and one or two studs) in a couple of seasons and the Twins will find a few other avg or better players in FA. And continue to have a strong system to continue feeding the Twins. At that point you are only filling a couple of holes and dropping big money could put the team over the top. If I was spending insane money (for the Twins) it would be 100ish/6yrs (includes posting fee) on 24 yr old Tanaka and go after a Nick Swisher type signing to take some pressure off of the prospects when called up.
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He's a better version of Florimon. Santana has poor plate discipline and I typically subtract off at least 50 pts of OPS of typical minor leaguers (unless very young or have scouting reports suggesting more potential). So I'm hoping that Santana hits for a .650 OPS and that's the kind of guy that you don't really want as a starting but can fill the position until something better is found.
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Arcia struck out 35% of the time and walked just 5% of the time in the 2nd half. So his OPS might have increased a little because of a couple extra HR's but those K and BB numbers are absolutely awful. I consider awful plate discipline as falling apart. i think he has a special raw ability for hitting but it's going to take some time. Pressley and mastro are 4th OF'ers and should be considered plan B or C for starting positions. The Twins should not start the season with either in a starting role unless there is an injury. People continue to completely overlook the negative impact that having almost no good hitters in the lineup can have on young players like Hicks, Sano, Arcia and possibly Rosario. The last thing I want is to call up Arcia and Sano and be forced to bat them 3rd and 4th because the rest of the lineup sucks that bad. I'm all for getting youngsters AB's but there is an uninspiring bunch of youngsters competing for multiples spots. If any of them look halfway decent then they will not have a problem getting AB's regardless if Willingham is on the team. Just look at how many AB's AAAA OF'ers got this year.
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So Ellsbury fills one of those positions (or CF). There's still another corner OF position (or two) and DH to fill with crap. And I highly doubt the Twins are going to sign multiple FA OF'ers. For the record I am not really against signing an OF'er despite the MiLB depth. But I would also keep Willy (at least until the trade deadline) because the rest of the options completely suck.
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Let's consider the alternatives and the downsides associated with them. Pressley - can't really hit Parmelee - hasn't hit in the majors and not a good defender Colabello - basically a 30 yr old rookie that is not a good defender Mastro - possibly playing CF and not much of a hitter Arcia - completely fell apart in the 2nd half but should be up for good at some point next season Willingham has his flaws but his competition (pick 3 as starters) completely sucks.
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But what is the downside to keeping him? It's pretty much non-existent. Maybe he gets injured and completely sucks but the money is basically a sunk cost. I would be shocked if a team offered a trade where they took the whole salary. And the Twins already have 50M left to spend this winter and it's almost guaranteed that they don't spend all of that. Additionally there are almost no legitimate prospects that he is taking playing time from. If Arcia can't outhit the likes of Parmelee, Colabello, Pressley, Mastro then he shouldn't get a starting spot. This really doesn't work since younger, better hitters usually are expensive in FA or you have to trade something valuable to get them. If this is your plan I hope that you reconsider because it's more likely that you are getting Clete Thomas part II as a replacement.
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Willingham has had one <.800 OPS season since 2005. It is far more likely that he OPS's better than almost every option the Twins have at LF/RF/DH. And that includes Arcia who I like a lot long term still. I guess it just comes down the fact that I'm dead set against being in the position where Parmelee and some random guy like Colabello almost have guaranteed starting positions before spring training starts. I'm not even very excited about Arcia opening the year in the majors. If it was the case where the twins had 2 really good players at LF/RF/DH and we were just looking for one youngster to step up then Willy is expendable but the Twins could be starting the season with below average hitters at almost every spot in the lineup. And we are talking about getting rid of Willingham for someone barely rated in the top 200? Really? How bad does everyone want next season to be? It's unlikely to be good but I really don't want a 110 loss season after 3 straight 90+ loss seasons.
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Doumit I don't really care about. He's not a good enough hitter unless he's catching and he's terrible at catching. But Willingham is the 2nd best hitter on the team. I don't see how that is even debatable. Perhaps he is injured again and sucks but when the next best hitter is Brian Dozier there isn't a lot of competition.
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BA's league rankings aren't directly prospect rankings. They are a combination of prospect status and the prospects performance in that league. Part of the reason is that they try to make the list from comments of scouts in that particular league that saw all of the players in that league. Rosario was amazing in Ft Myers while he had a .742 OPS in NB. Pinto on the other hand had a .893 OPS as a catcher in more games. I have said it before but I don't think Rosario is knocking on the door next season. He's pretty young still and I think he spends at least half a season at NB if not the whole season.
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It has nothing to do if rosario is ready half way thru next season. dozier should be given every opportunity to fill the SS hole. That is a really difficult position to fill internally or externally. getting another Worley level pitcher back does not considerably change the Twins fortunes next season. Especially since you are making a weak offense even worse. I understand that the Twins have some great hitting prospects in the minors and the starting pitching is beyond awful but the Twins also have a terrible offense (25th in the majors).
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That's true but this team also doesn't have a SS and there is only Polanco in the minors that looks like he could be average or better. The Twins definitely need pitching but it doesn't make sense to open holes elsewhere that are hard to fill. The other BIG problem I have with this argument is that Dozier is probably bringing back a Worley type instead of a high potential arm. Maybe in another year when Dozier has more than 2/3's of a season of good baseball on his big league resume but right now GM's will be lukewarm to him (rightly so).
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Who is making that argument in this thread? In other threads people have made that argument but most of those other threads are about signing 30+ yr olds. The Twins shouldn't be investing a lot of money in players that will be finishing their contracts in their mid 30's. this team has to get younger. this thread however is about a 24 yr old which is exactly the type of player the Twins should target. the scary thing is that it might take 120M to sign him (including posting fee). That is A LOT OF money regardless of what you think the Twins payroll should be. Not only do you have agree to pay that much money for one FA but you also have to be very sure of someone that hasn't thrown an MLB pitch. The Nishioka concerns are silly because he wasn't a great player in Japan (he was a solid above average player) but Tanaka still hasn't thrown an MLB pitch.
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I think they should deal Dozier for a young 2Bman that played SS in the minors and might be able to handle SS at the MLB. I also think it would be criminal to trade someone like Dozier since they wouldn't be getting back a similarly young SS back (teams don't have a surplus of young SS's available) and there is very little hope for a starting SS coming up through the farm system for 2-3 years.
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It has really been an incredible year for rookies and other almost rookies. Harvey was awesome (sadly), Fernandez, Wacha, Miller, Cole and probably a couple of others to watch next season like Gray, Cingrani and Alex Wood.
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The Twins have so much money to spend in FA that it's not even a factor. 1 yr contracts basically have no effect on the Twins at this point. The problem with FA is that most (probably all) good FA pitchers are going to require 5 yrs. You are still overestimating the quality of the prospect that you would receive especially in a Doumit trade. Let's take some time to actually look at how awful the Twins lineup would be. Ranked roughly by ability. This is a truly awful lineup. The only hope that the Twins have a top 20 offense is if the rookies and almost rookies (Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, etc...) are up earlier than expected and are really good immediately. 110 losses here we come.
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So this is your quest to find a bottom of the rotation arm in a few years and aim for 110 losses next season?
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Isn't this irrelevant? Neither Willy nor doumit is landing a clear cut starter for 2014. The best case is that they land an intriguing rk ball prospect that might be up in 3+ years. Despite people slamming the MiLB pitching depth the Twins actually have several intriguing low level pitching prospects. I think a comparable for Willy is the Morneau trade and that was done in August when he was only owed a little money and he was currently healthy. That netted a 4th OF'er and an inconsistent MLB ready RP'er. That is hardly overwhelming.
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This is a poor analogy but Nathan would have to be elite for another 5 years to make the HOF. First it should be difficult to make the HOF as a closer. Second he didn't become good until he was almost 30. It's very difficult for any player regardless of position to make the HOF based on only 10 excellent seasons.
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Perhaps you didn't say it but I think the melt down occurred because there were a significant number of people that were making org plans with him as an MLB starter based on a one season breakout at age 24. He was intriguing and a possible starter but no guarantees. Rosario for example is a better prospect but he's also not a guarantee and people continue to make an issue out of Dozier/Rosario at 2B. Let that be an issue when it actually becomes an issue. Of course the opposite is true when people completely write someone off after a bad a season like Dozier had in 2012.
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Other than the occasional elite signees like Sano and Ynoa there are usually 1-2 guys ranked basically as lottery picks at the end of prospect lists. And most of those guys don't even make it to AA but the ranker can look really smart in hindsight. I can't remember if there was also a scouting report but somebody like Sickels, Law, Callis, etc mentioned that Thorpe would be considered a late first rd pick if he were draft eligible. Jorge's bonus was in 300K range IIRC. I really liked the video that I saw when he signed so he has always been a favorite sleeper of mine.
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I'm not a fan of big social programs (and this is huge) but medical care is something that is unobtainable for far too many in the US. The ACA has its flaws and imo the Republicans have actually taken steps to make it less effective but it is still a big step in the right direction.
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You put out a lineup of RF - Parmelee, CF - Mastro, LF - Pressley, DH - Colabello, SS - Florimon, 3B - Plouffe and C - Pinto/Herrmann and you are looking at a potential 110 loss team with this rotation. The only hope for the team is that Buxton, Sano and a couple of other rookies (that aren't blocked by Willy) come up and are awesome from day one. Now if your goal is to be worse than the Marlins/Astros then it makes sense.
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The Mocks: 2014 MLB Draft (Twins Pick #5)
kab21 replied to InfraRen's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Who is presently on the major league team should never influence who should be drafted. Even for college pitchers it usually takes 2+ years to reach the majors. i think everyone agrees that if an argument can be made that a pitcher is close to the BPA then the Twins should take him but if there's a gap between the BPA available and the best pitcher then you have to take the hitter. -
If it's me I'm sending Arcia and Hicks to AAA for at least 2 months. they completely fell apart at the end of the season. That leaves you with Mastro/Pressley/Parmelee as your OF starters and probably Colabello as your starting DH. Herrmann is not an MLB hitter imo and he shouldn't enter into any plans other than backup catcher with positional flexibility. I also have no idea how Parmalee can be considered as Plan A in the starting OF. He has done nothing in 2 seasons to deserve that. There is absolutely no reason to dump Willingham so you can start the season with that mess unless you actually get something decent back for him. By the trade deadline I'm hoping that Hicks, Arcia, Buxton and Vargas are already up or are getting close. Doumit I don't care much about since he shouldn't be a starting DH and he shouldn't be behind the plate much. At the same time I would have serious reservations starting the season with two rookies behind the plate (if Mauer moves to 1B). At that point you are one injury or one major disappointment away from a Danny Lehman type getting some serious playing time. We will be wishing that we had Doumit at that point.
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It would take them 5 years to come close to 100M payroll again if they were only signing their own guys. You can have your opinion but I really don't think they will wait that long. Will it happen this offseason? Maybe, maybe not.