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kab21

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Everything posted by kab21

  1. kab21
    I am not comfortable with Pinto/Herrmann as the Twins catching duo and that has not changed based on these winter league stats.
  2. kab21
    If the Twins were a 85 win team that was looking to contend I would love to get a guy like Prince. Comparisons to his father are silly. They were both big but that's about where the comparison stops. Prince is a responsible adult while his father never made it out his teens mentally. I think Prince is going to have 5 really good years (better than last year) followed by a couple of average or worse ones to finish the contract. Overall he will earn his contract and I wouldn't have a problem paying it (with the Pohlad's money). But I wouldn't trade Mauer for Fielder in the Twins current situation or in the hypothetical one. I wouldn't even consider making the trade for Kinsler. That is justifiable only for financial reasons and the Twins have plenty of free money to spend.
  3. kab21
    And to think people were REALLY UPSET that Correia got 2/10 last year. I think Arroyo is a find pitcher to have on the team but 3/36 is just silly. If they are spending that much money then I hope they spend twice as much and get a better and younger player. Unfortunately I think they are only going to target guys to survive the next couple of years.
  4. kab21
    I can't believe there are 5 pages on this completely non-interesting transaction. Neither of these guys are interesting and would just be 40 man roster hanger-onners.
  5. kab21
    Kind of a good trade for both teams although it's brilliant for the Rangers. They needed to open up a spot for Profar and they needed a big slugger. They do pick up 8 more expensive years of Fielder though. That won't end well. The Tigers needed to get MCab back to 1B and they needed a MI'er. Kinsler is on the decline but he's good and he's only owed 4/60. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers use this money to pick up another slugger.
  6. kab21
    I like Vargas bat best but he has zero defensive value so it has to be better. He is old for his level but he also has very little pro ball experience. Despite being 23 almost half of his MiLB experience came last year. His future in the MLB is becoming a .275/.350/.475/.825 DH for the Twins. And there's a lot more downside to that projection than upside. Walker is the best athlete but he is going to have to be more selective as he moves up because better pitchers won't give him good pitches to hit. Harrison is the opposite in some ways to Walker. Despite having a sweet swing he hasn't dazzled statistically. He walks a lot but also K's a lot. He's hit some bombs but only has a so-so .160 isoP so far. His offense is going to need to carry him because very few think he will stick at 3B. D.J. Hicks seemingly has no buzz and is even older than Vargas and is a step behind him on the depth chart. Hicks differs from Vargas since he played college ball and his significantly more baseball experience. His stats are similar to the rest but he seems to be org depth similar to Brock Peterson, Erik Lis and Garrett Jones from 5 yrs ago. One of those did become a solid role player though. I think Vargas is the best bet to be an MLB startable player (at DH). Walker and Harrison have higher ceilings but neither is likely to make the majors. The good news is that the Twins have several of these guys and combined one is likely to make it. Kepler kind of matches up with Harrison. He's a solid prospect that hasn't flopped but his raw skills haven't translated to his statline.
  7. kab21
    The most obvious benefit - not having to watch a team getting mauled in 2014. The 2nd most obvious - pitching well enough that he's a lock to turn down a qualifying offer
  8. kab21
    Excellent move by the Padres and something the Twins should have been in on. Of course the same could have been said about Marcum last year. The odd provision was also included in Lackey's (longer) contract. It gives the team some value if he's injured the entire time. It's possible that JJ's arm is pretty iffy right now.
  9. kab21
    Excellent comp but he only managed a couple of season with <4.00 ERA after a nice run with the Expos. Not something I would want to throw a lot of money at despite his awesome season with the braves.
  10. kab21
    It's frustrating that you fixate only on the K's. The issue is that he doesn't walk also. Out of your examples only Chris Davis had similar K and BB rates throughout his MiLB career. Walker posted similar rates for his season in the midwest league and then he became a walking machine after that. And nobody is writing him off. He's a unique blend of physical tools and raw hitting skill. The big problem is that low of a walk rate (with the K's) is that he is not looking for his pitch and swinging at tough pitches out of the K zone. This wasn't an issue in low A but that was due to him just flat out being more skilled than the low A pitchers. This won't be true as he moves up in the minors and it definitely won't be true in the majors. And yes it is a big reason for concern.
  11. kab21
    He's a good prospect but what has he done to deserve a promotion after a 1/2 season in AA? I have posted longer responses in other threads about Rosario but you seem to ignore them.
  12. kab21
    5/75 for a guy that typically puts up 4.50 ERA's? that's an overpay regardless of the team.
  13. kab21
    115 K's and 31 BB's is a pretty big reason for a concern.
  14. kab21
    xBAPIP obviously doesn't use batted ball speed but it's a lot more complex than you make it out to be. It also has a couple of components that try to incorporate power into the equation. Arcia has a special hit tool but he has some stuff to work on.
  15. kab21
    For years people have complained about the system being too far away and now top heavy is an issue? And this is still how systems work. If there were can't miss guys in the minors combined with Sano, buxton, Meyer and Rosario then this would be one of the most ridiculous systems ever. And I would still consider a bottom portion consisting of Stewart, pick #5, Thorpe, Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, Harrison and Gonsalves (among others) to be really good.
  16. kab21
    Good grief. I think your argument could be made about any system that will graduate two top 10 prospects and two top 50 prospects right after graduating 3 top 50 prospects (Hicks/Arcia/Gibson). The great thing is that there is still some nice talent in the system despite up to 7 young players being up with the Twins for good by opening day 2015. I completely disagree with thrylos's analysis of Kepler. Vargas (I like) and Hicks (I don't) are completely limited to DH and Walker has big plate discipline issues. Harrison and kepler are kind of comparable but I wouldn't say that Harrison is better (unless he sticks at 3B). Kepler's poor season was almost entirely BAPIP driven. He showed great plate discipline and pretty good power. These are things that I look at in prospects and Kepler has them.
  17. kab21
    Nolasco is a terrible investment. He just hasn't been very good for a long time. Do you think he had one lucky season or 4 unlucky seasons. Arroyo has continuously outproduced him and is likely the top target for the Twins because of fewer years.
  18. kab21
    This isn't really accurate. RP'ers eliminate their worst pitch from their arsenal and just concentrate on 2 pitches. They also only see hitters once in a game and only a couple times per season. So a pitcher with control problems can seemingly be fixed with a move to the bullpen.
  19. kab21
    I'm not sure how you assess plate discipline but his K rate went from 16% (2012) and 12% (Ft Myers) to 21% (AA). He has never walked a lot but his BB rate has stayed about the same. Perhaps plate discipline isn't really the right term since we don't know if he was expanding the strike zone (bad plate discipline) or if he was swinging through strikes (overmatched) but he certainly hasn't earned a promotion to AAA nor will he be rushed to the majors this season like some think.
  20. kab21
    The Twins had a lot of nice seasons in the bullpen but I'm skeptical of several of these arms. It's not the most glaring weakness but things could turn ugly in the bullpen next year.
  21. kab21
    I think people have gotten way ahead of themselves with Rosario. He did alright in AA but he didn't dominate and he isn't an elite talent like Buxton/Sano. I would be very surprised if he only spent 90 games in low A (2012), 50 games in high A and 70 games in AA before moving up to AAA. His plate discipline also nosedived in AA. I think he spends most of the year in the minors giving the Twins another year before a Dozier/Rosario issue is an issue.
  22. kab21
    This is sugarcoating it. Liriano had been terrible for 1.5 yrs before putting together a solid 1.5 month stretch. And then he was terrible again after the trade. Waiting an extra start wasn't going to bring in a better offer.
  23. kab21
    It could be partly due to that but Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez pitched in front of the same defense for half a decade and consistently performed as good or better than their xFIP. Some pitchers just crap the bed and there is enough data that says Nolasco might be one of those guys. Maybe he can't pitch out of the stretch well. Maybe he really implodes when a few bad things happen and gives up huge innings. Maybe he is like Liriano and just hates the Marlins and needs a change of scenery to motivate to stay focused in games.
  24. kab21
    I disagree with Grant Paulson. The Twins have tons of prospects and losing a 2nd rd pick is in no way comparable to trading a top prospect (like Myers) for a good starter. That's a bad move for a rebuilding team. It would be greatly beneficial for a team like the Twins to have something resembling an MLB to start adding Sano/Buxton/Meyer/Stewart/Rosario/etc to. People talk about wasting Mauer's prime but at the same time the Twins are only guaranteed 6 yrs of these potential studs. I'm against spending 3 yrs trying to build a competitive team around them. The problem if Ubaldo tanks has very little to do with the draft pick. It has everything to do with signing him to a long FA contract and that's an issue for every FA contract. If you want to avoid that then never go after FA's but that would be foolish for the Twins to completely avoid.
  25. kab21
    The Twins are in no position to be concerned about blocking pitchers coming up. They would have to have an insanely great success rate with their pitching prospects for it to be an issue. And good pitching prospects (blocked) are one of the best assets that a contending team can have in today's trade market. Summary - it's not going to be an issue and it's an awesome issue to have if it did happen.
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