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Thrylos

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Everything posted by Thrylos

  1. Thrylos
    I think that it is close between Mejia and Hildy. Mejia was the Twins' third best started (based on FIP, ERA and fWAR; was second best in K/9) and pitched 82 innings in 21 games. Hildy pitched mostly in the 7th and 8th inning so he was mainly a middle reliever and the RH setup man on occasion. Tied with Duffey (whom he replaced as the RH set up man late in the season) in 4th for Holds with 12 (Rogers had 30 and Belisle 17 before he moved to the closer position.) He was second in the team in WPA & WHIP, led in K%-BB%, and FIP. He pitched 42 innings in 37 games Given the sad state of the Twins' pitching in 2017 the high rankings among their peers do not matter much. Among a good pitching staff, a 4.50 ERA, 8 K/9, 4 BB/9 starter would probably be a 4th starter, and a 3.20 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 1.5 BB/9 reliever with funky delivery would be a 7th inning guy. Flip a coin or pick the kind of contributor you value better: A 4th starter or a 7th inning guy. Mejia pitched about double the innings, while Hildy appeared in about double the games. Mind you, this is not about potential, it is about actual 2017 performance. It is that close.
  2. Thrylos
    Hate to say this, but if all of these made enough appearances in 2018 to qualify for a ROY award, it will not be a good sign for the Twins
  3. Thrylos
    He is 34 or so; wonder why he is still around
  4. Thrylos
    He has to go. The last bastion of the Gardenhire one and out belly up in the post-season.
  5. Thrylos
    A. The team was last or next to last in defense-independent pitching measures in the AL for 3 seasons running B. He was guilty of a crime in 2016 for which other teams can their coaches all the time. C. Pitchers like Berrios and Gibson figured "it" out when they went to the minors I hope that the Twins get a pitching coach that will help the staff in the majors improve. The change happened a bit too late...
  6. Thrylos
    Throwing some objective measures in the question: Position players fWAR 2017-fWAR 2016: Escobar 2.2 Buxton 1.8 Polanco 1.7 Rosario 1.6 Mauer 1.4 wOBA 2017 - wOBA 2016 Escobar .051 Rosario .045 Mauer .023 Buxton .008 Polanco -.015 wRC+ 2017 - wRC+ 2016 Escobar 34 Rosario 30 Mauer 14 Buxton 4 Polanco -12 So the top 5 look like: 1. Escobar 2. Rosario 3. Buxton - Mauer 5. Polanco or so. As far as position players go. Berrios' fWAR difference this season was 3.2, which is much higher than any position player, but it is comparing apples and oranges if use that as a subjective comparison measurement; however, his improvement was definitely more than the others, going from a negative value to a positive, something that no position player has done. So mine would have been: 1. Berrios, 2. Escobar, 3. Rosario.
  7. Thrylos
    For the pitchers, If you take the ERA-FIP, which is basic regression measument, you got Busenitz (-1.30), Santana (-1.18), Rogers (-1.02) on one side (Regression) and Duffey (1.22), and Curtiss (3.42/SSS) on the other (Improvement). The rest are within -/+ 0.50. I am ignoring FAs and people who will be DFA'd (Tonkin, Turley, Boshers etc.) This is pretty scary, because arguably their best 2 relievers and the starter that the DickNBerts of the world call the Twins' "Ace", are about to regress in 2018, which makes rebuilding the pen and the rotation a huge necessity, if they are to compete in the post-season.
  8. Thrylos
    Can he pitch? Last time I checked, hitting was not the problem...
  9. Thrylos
    They need to build packages around Dozier, Santana, Vargas, Grossman, Granite, Park, supplemented with prospects like Gonsalves, Gordon, Stewart, Palka etc. For example: Santana + Dozier +? to the Mets for DeGrom + ? might be a win-win situation. The Mets would replace their oldest pitcher with someone who can mentor the rest and still have an excellent rotation, pending health. They need a second baseman really badly. The Twins get a guy who is a number 2 in any post-season team and a number 1 in many teams. Then go out and see what it will take to get someone like Archer. Would Gordon, Gonsalves, Jorge, as the core be enough? If not, add a couple more names from above or someone like Gibson or Mejia. This way, the Twins get 2 pitchers better than Berrios and get a rotation of Archer, DeGrom, Berrios, Gibson/Mejia, May/Romero, which looks like a post season rotation.
  10. Thrylos
    a. I do not get the love for Cobb and esp. Lynne. 2017 numbers: Lance Lynne (NL) 4.82 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 2.0 K/9, 1.23 WHIP (.244 BABIP) Alex Cobb (AL) 4.16 FIP, 6.4 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (.282 BABIP) Certain FA pitcher (AL only numbers, he pitched earlier in the season in the NL) 3.82 FIP, 5.9 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP (.340 BABIP) Hint: Why would you sign them and expect them to be good? b. If 34 and 35 year olds are "too old", so should be Ervin Santana For this team to compete in the postseason next season, they will need at least 2 arms at the Berrios or better level. Can one of them come within the organization (May, Rosario, Littel?) I would not count on it for 2018. So they need 2 outside of the organization. In that list, only Darvish fits the bill. So does Otani who is not listed. Will they go after those 2? I doubt it. So they have to get those pitchers via trades...
  11. Thrylos
    Eddie Rosario's season is James Rawson's magic all the way. If there is one guy who deserves credit for the turnaround of the Twins in 2017, it is him (and Jeff Pickler.)
  12. Thrylos
    Great predictions! Mauer was looking different since the beginning of the season compared to previous seasons. Little number crunching back in April, predicted that he will hit .293/.379/.412. Not that far from his .305/.384/.417 actual... Hope he continues next season
  13. Thrylos
    TK won 2 world series. Molitor and his predecessor have won a single post-season series among them.
  14. Thrylos
    Well, I think that it is at least irresponsible to not judge Molitor based on 2017 and 2016. Matter of fact, I think that he is uber lucky to be the Twins manager in 2017. The person who managed the most pathetic team of the Twins' history in MN should go away. I think that Falvey and Levine are being very diplomatic. They understand that there are a lot of people who forget 2016 and focus on 2017 and want Molitor back. So, they offered to bring him back, in their own terms that likely included firing of at least the pitching coach of one of the worst pitching staff in the majors 3 seasons in a row, and (hopefully) the last member of the Gardenhire regime; plus I suspect that Molitor might thing that he is underpaid. Thus the snug the discussions hit and if Molitor does not accept, he, and not the FO, will be the one who will look back. Molitor in 2017 kinda cleaned up the mess he made in 2016. If you evaluate all his 3 seasons, he was a loser overall. Fact. Does not deserve to be back...
  15. Thrylos
    Agree with the assessment. The names were just examples (thus the like.) Those are the kind of players I think that the Twins should be after, while shedding older resources...
  16. Thrylos
    Bit old school here as far as Medicine goes, but there are one 2 reasons that surgery might be needed: a. if there are a whole bunch of bone fragments around, which need to be cleaned or b. stabilize the leg after a pretty nasty tibia fraction. Both of those 2 cases would not been diagnosed as a "stress reaction" with an old school X-ray, much more with an MRI. And the 'stress' part (which denotes injury due to repetition vs. due to event as in 'acute') was totally BS because his leg was hurt with that foul ball, and that is a distinct event, as in an accident. Either the lying has to go, or the Twins' med stuff have to go...
  17. Thrylos
    That argument could had been valid if Molitor did not manage the 2016 Twins. He was the manager of the worst franchise team in MN ever.
  18. Thrylos
    Here is my take: a. By all evidence available out there, the Twins offered Molitor an one year contract for 2018 b. Molitor is the second oldest manager in the majors (t-w/Showalter) c. If one can praise Molitor as the leader of the 2017 team, he/she should also credit him with the 2016 debacle. d. I think that this is a face saving move from all parties involved and will conclude with Molitor retiring & accepting another position in the organization, a few more coaches (Allen, & Vavra for starters) not returning and a full blown coaching search.
  19. Thrylos
    The Twins need to sell high and buy low. E. Santana's value will not be much higher than it is now, and he is due for regression. With a 4.46 FIP and a 4.60 SIERA he is pretty much a sure bet to regress. Someone will look at his 3.30 ERA, 16-8 record and 211 IP and value those numbers enough to give the Twins something good in return (young MLB-ready controllable pitching.) Can he bring back someone like Francis Martes or Tyler Glasnow (both buy low?) Those are the kind of deals the Twins should explore.
  20. Thrylos
    May may have something to say about this.
  21. Thrylos
    Either my hotel room or a sports bar within walking distance; on my way to Charleston, SC tomorrow.
  22. Thrylos
    If he loses the wild card game for the Yankees, give him a ring for each finger...
  23. Thrylos
    My recipe for Twins success: a. get them early and get them often b. Santana pitches a GC shutout.
  24. Thrylos
    And yes to the Calvin Griffith's estate. He moved the team to Minnesota.
  25. Thrylos
    He stabilized the bottom of the rotation, no doubt, and with the Braves paying all of his salary, he has to be one of the most successful garbage pile dive players the Twins ever had
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