Thrylos

Really, I will believe that when/if I see it...

If Molitor is not playing his best player every single game, he should go the way of Gardy. Sano should play every day unless he is hurt or needs a break.

No. That is not Buxton's issue and resolution. Buxton cannot hit a good breaking ball. Period. And "dominating"? One season with > .900 OPS . .990 OPS in Cedar Rapids. FWIW Vargas had 2 seasons with > .900 OPS (and another one with .895) And Sano never had a season with OPS less than .870. Maybe need to reconsider what "dominating" means, really... Unless Buxton can hit the curve or let it go, he will be a Vince Coleman type of player with fewer steals (because these days people don't steal.)

Originally published at The Tenth Inning Stretch ---- You can find the introductory segment in this series, including my criteria for eligibility to be a prospect and the list of the 2015 top 40 players who graduated as prospects or are not in the system, here. Here is my 2015 Twins off-season top 40 prospects list (summary of 1-40) for reference. Without further ado, here is the 2016 countdown of prospects, with their ranking in the 2015 list in parenthesis : 40. Emmanuel Morel (--) DOB: 5/4/1997; Age: 18 Positions: SS/2B Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 5'10", Weight: 150 lbs Acquired: International Free Agent 4/8/2013 Professional Experience: 2; Highest level: Rookie/DSL (2014, 2015) Every season in this prospect list, I include prospects who are traditionally bypassed by many (because they have not played games in the US) and ended up picked up by the mainstream media a season or two afterwards. Last season it was Jermaine Palacios at 36; This season is Emmanuel Morel at 40, who has already 2 professional seasons under his belt before his 19th birthday. In 2015 he alternated games between the 2 middle infield positions with 17 year old Yeltsin Encarnacion for the Dominican Summer League Twins. In a league dominated by pitchers he hit .282/.428/.370 (.798 OPS), had 51 singles, 6 doubles, 5 triples in 230 plate appearances. He struck out 43 times and walked 46 times. He also stole 24 bases in 35 attempts. In other words, he reached base 43% of the time, walking more than striking out, he attempted a stole base in about 41% of his opportunities and he was successful 69% of the time. This is pretty impressive at any level of professional ball at any age in the twenty first century. You cannot teach plate selectivity and you have to have the guts to be aggressive. If Morel continues those traits when he will cross the Tropic of Cancer, and he shows signs of reliability with the glove, the Twins will have another good middle infield prospect from Latin America in their pipeline. Likely 2016 path: Will start the season in Extended Spring Training, get used to live in the US in the Twins' Fort Myers Complex and join the Gulf Coast League Twins when they start playing games after the 2016 draft Ceiling/Floor: Too early to tell 39. Trey Cabbage (--) DOB: 5/3/1997; Age: 18 Positions: SS/3B/LF/RF Bats: L, Throws: R Height: 6' 3", Weight: 190 lbs Acquired: 4th Round Draft Pick 2015 Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/GCL (2015) Trey Cabbage was the Twins' fourth round draft pick in the past draft from Grainger (TN) High School and is a day older from the number 40 prospect, Emmanuel Morel. Mostly a shortstop in High School, he moved all over the field in his first pro season with the Gulf Coast League. He was projected to play third base, but it will still be a work in progress, because his first try in the position (6 errors in 21 games) was not as smooth as hoped. His transition to the wooden bat has been painful as well, hitting .252/.302/.269 with only 2 doubles as extra base hits, 7 walks and 37 strikeouts in 129 PAs. Stole one base and was caught 5 times. A small sample size ray of hope: He hit He hit .350/.435/.350 overall in 20 ABs against LHPs and finished the season .321/.310/.321 in 28 August ABs. The transition to the wooden bat is not a small feat for an 18 year old and Cabbage does get the benefit of the double. Will likely work several positions in the low minor leagues to find a position that he is a good fit defensively. Before the draft he was touted as one of the "sweetest" left hand swings, since you know who, but still have to see this. Cabbage was a multi-sport player (Football and Basketball) and also pitched in High School, and some focus and taking time off this winter might help him a lot. Likely 2016 path: Starting in Extended Spring Training and focusing of figuring out which position might be the best fit for him and then playing there in the GCL. 38. Travis Blankenhorn (--) DOB: 8/3/1996; Age: 19 Positions: 3B/1B Bats: L, Throws: R Height: 6' 1", Weight: 195 lbs Acquired: 3th Round Draft Pick 2015 Professional Experience: 1; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2015) Travis Blakenhorn, was drafted in the third round of the 2015 draft from Pottstown (PA) High School, and like Trey Cabbage, is a left hitting third baseman who started the season and his professional career in the GCL. Unlike Cabbage he has some success with the bat, .245/.362/.408, 4 doubles, 2 triples, 7 walks and 11 strikeouts in 58 PAs, allowing the Twins to move him up a level at Elizabethton in the middle of July. In Elizabethton, he started on fire hitting .321/.387/.482 for July, and then leveled off, ending up the season in the Appalachian League hitting .243/.306/.326 with 3 doubles, 3 HRs, 11 BBs and 32 Ks in 158 PAs. Was effectively neutralized by LHP (.172/.250/.310,) but, again, the transition from aluminum to wood is not an easy one. Blakenhorn projects as a power hitter and he flashed some. Has a solid powerful build that would allow him to play at either infield corner, but his strong arm has him a better fit at third or at a corner outfield position. Blakenhorn picked up some Alex Gordon comparisons, but that is a bit of reaching at this point. Fellow Twins' prospects, Travis Harrison and the gentleman whose profile follows, might be better comparables for now... Likely 2016 path: Starting at Extended Spring Training, then the starting third baseman in Elizabethton as soon as Appalachian League play starts in June. 37. Niko Goodrum (--) DOB: 2/28/1992; Age: 23 Positions: 3B/SS/CF Bats: S, Throws: R Height: 6' 3", Weight: 198 lbs Acquired: 2nd Round Draft Pick 2010 Professional Experience: 6; Highest level: AA (2015) I have to admit, Niko Goodrum frustrates me. Has a ton of potential and never put it together in six professional seasons. As a matter of fact, he has been in an out in my top 40 prospect list for the last 3 years. Why is he in again? In a second, bit of history first: Niko Goodrum was drafted 71nd overall in the 2010 draft (a spot after Braves', and now Angels', Andrelton Simmons who has 4 seasons in the majors and a couple gold gloves.) That was the Alex Wimmers draft. Goodrum's career slash line is .244/.337/.357 and he has not been deviating by more that 0.30 or so in any of its components in his six seasons as a pro (other than his short first season of .414 OPS.) In other words he has been pretty average, or below average, at any level, which does not a good prospect make. So why is he back here again? Three reasons: When he moved to Chatanooga in the middle of the season, he improved his approach as a hitter. He hit .244/.332/.392 with 6 doubles, 5 triples, 5 HRs, 28 BBs, and 51 K in 238 PAs, in a league where .700 OPS is the average. Sustained improvement in base running and base stealing and considerable jump in power: Goodrum stole 20, 35 and 29 bases the last 3 seasons. He was 18 for 22 in Chatanooga this season. In addition, he hit a career high 9 HRs, more than doubling his previous best (4). He might have actually found a position he can play and be above average. He was drafted as a shortstop, and played most of his first 3 seasons there very erratically. He was transferred to third base the last 3 seasons with similar results. However, Doug Mientkiewitz and serendipity (not many OFs in the organization) had him at Centerfield for 15 games, in which he was a good centerfielder and better with the bat when played there. Maybe the game slowed down enough at OF for him. So there is enough potential and intrigue to believer that Niko Goodrum might actually make a major league centerfielder some day, if the Twins continue using him there, which they should. So Goodrum makes the list as an outfielder. Likely 2016 path: Depending on where Byron Buxton ends up, likely the starting Centerfielder for Chatanooga. 36. Kuo Hua Lo (--) DOB: 10/28/1992; Age: 23 Positions: RHP Bats: R, Throws: R Height: 5' 10", Weight: 195 lbs Acquired: International Free Agent 6/10/2011 Professional Experience: 4; Highest level: Rookie/Elizabethton (2013-2015) Lo was signed by the Twins as an International Free Agent from Taiwan at age 18, 4 seasons ago and has shown steady improvement to be regarded as a top 40 prospect, with a near breakout 2015 season. He pitched 31.3 innings with a 1.44 ERA (2.75 FIP) allowing 15 hits, 8 walks (0.734 WHIP) and had 43 strikeouts (12.4 K/9 and 36.4 K%) and was the primary closer for Elizabethton. On the downside he was a year and a tad older than the league average, his BABIP was .213, and he was threepeating Elizabethton, but BABIP does not affect the strikeouts, he made the transition from Taiwan to the US as a teenager and that 36.4% K is impressive at any level, making me think that he actually got "it". What is "it"? A second above average pitch. Lo has had an above average to plus fastball with good downward movement, which can reach 94 mph or so, but the rest of his repertoire was hit and miss. Reports out of Elizabethton have him throwing a "filthy" off-speed pitch, which sounds like an above average change up or slurve, but regardless, it is apparently effective. Still have to see it in person, so I reserve judgement, but there is a lot of potential there to worth inclusion in this list. Likely 2016 path: Cedar Rapids Kernels' bullpen and co-closer http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5152/7098789651_02fb66b359_z.jpg

Did not mention him earlier, because I am not thinking him as a prospect, since he made it to The Show. If I had to pick a single breakout player, it would be Alex Meyer. Hope he makes TRs job very difficult this Spring and Summer.

He is out of options.

If I had to pick a pitcher, I'd pick Mason Melotakis. If I had to pick a position player, I'd have to flip a coin between Levi Michael and Travis Harrison. Other than Gonsalves (who is too young and needs another pitch) and Tyler Jay (who will have hiccups in his first full season as a starter next year,) I think that the players in your list, are not top talent, to tell you the truth

Is it me, or have the Twins been transforming more into "all or nothing at all" (even Mauer has been having career highs in K%) since Brunansky got the hitting coach position? And Bruno was exactly that kind of a hitter. Just something to throw out there... As far as Arcia goes, he (and Vargas) are the only players who are power threats from the Left side. The team needs at least one of them in the lineup, so I guess it will be Arcia.

Too early to even start thinking about the Twins' lineup. And the stories they are spreading about Sano have him at LF instead of RF (with that overhang etc...) Pretty certain that the Twins will make changes by opening day...

Good stuff. You even caught one of the co-hosts of my favorite morning radio show Really surprising not to see Radke there. Wonder how many of those are in the top 50 of all time. One more thing that would be interesting it to normalize vs. league average BB9+K9. Back in the days there were really not that many strikeouts. Bet if you normalize the Radkes and Pavanos of the world will pop out more

Read about that, and then looked at the source (Al Jazeera) and turned the virtual page...

A couple years ago I wrote Guides to the Twins' Spring Training, which might answer some of your questions: Three parts: The Baseball The Food Logistics Will probably update them for 2016, since a few things have changed from 2013. How to best get tickets? Unless it is the Red Sox or the Yankees (which you better pre-order in the web), the best way is the box office. Lots of nice seats after the renovations, and do not shy away from the outfield seats. Can be pretty fun. I've been doing the trip every year for a while. It is really worthwhile. Enjoy!

The police report and the subsequent newspaper reports said that he fired the gun inside a garage. No mention on whether anyone else was around or whether the garage was attached or detached. The rest are guesses.

Last time I checked, he has not been convicted of anything. Has he? As a matter of fact no charges were even filled because the cops have found conflicting stories when they talked to witnesses. Nothing like being convicted of a crime he was not even accused of committing... The story from the papers is here.

Cannot compare WAR of a starter who is on his prime with that of a part-time player who is just about to enter his prime. Also, part of the reason that Escobar's WAR is low is that he played about half of his games at LF where both his bat and glove are way below the LF average. Give Escobar the same innings at SS as Desmond, and I bet his WAR will be higher than Desmond's.

You seem to forget that Kirby was a Twins' Executive Vice President during and after the abuse allegations.

Two words: Kirby Puckett. How do you feel about Kirby?

Was thinking of equivalent Twins' players to the Yankees' players and I came up with: Tonkin, Slegers, DJ Hicks and Ryan Walker (and the Twins' group might actually be a hair better than the Yankees' group) Couldn't Ryan better that? Would the Twins miss these 4? Not sure how the CBA will work, but Chapman will likely receive a QO and bring back a comp. draft pick as well.... Oh Well.

The one who got booted: The AAA Pitching coach.

Much much much less. It will probably take a team to go over all their international signing bonus $, but it will not exceed what the Twins gave to KBO to get Park's rights. This is a situation like Sano, Kepler, etc. All you need is a bonus and you have him under control for a long time, up to 11 years.

The Willie Mays comparison is just not there. Willie Mays was 5'10" and 170 lbs, with cleats and fully dressed Pretty sure the reference is from here, but it is a lot of hype. Nightengale is a very good writer and at the end he gave a decent comparable (Harper.) Not sure that the kid is close to that, but it will be interesting. And because of the age, all someone needs to give is a signing bonus, because he will be signed as an International Free Agent. That will cut in the signing bonus pool. As Nightengale said in that article a few teams have spent all of their bonus $ so they cannot sign him: The only teams uninterested in Armenteros are the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, Los Angeles Angels and Tampa Bay Rays. It's only because they can't have him. They're ineligible after already exceeding their international bonus pool. So, yes, the Twins are interested, but cannot scout them officially, until he is deemed eligible... Interesting to see if it is all hype. Not to mention that he was forbidden to play baseball and has not played until 2014. We shall see.

I never understood why baseball fans who love to watch baseball, would like the games to end sooner, so they can watch less of the game they love to watch. Never understood that oxymoron.

I hope that they bring up those 2 when they will be discussing arbitration, though

I think that it will be interesting indeed. What I would like to see happen: a. TV revenue sharing: 50% of the TV revenue goes to the home team, 50% in a pool that get distributed equally in the league; so better markets indeed get more $, but the other teams that play there, get a piece of the pie b. Minimum MiLB salary that is tied to the minimum MLB salary, it is in a scale and should start at something like 8% for Rookies (that's $45K) and end at about 20% (that's 100K) for players in the upper minors and on the 40-man roster. c. That qualifying offer should go away. Not good for anyone. but d. Single draft with the ability to draft both North American and International players (think NBA) and bring back the high rounds. and e. Salary cap and floor that will be adjusted each season: Add all the 2016 salaries and put the cap at 125% and the floor at 75%. And should move at some way (5%? every season; so should the minimum salary.) So if the average is $100M, the top should be $125M and no team should be below $75M. Luxury tax is garbage, penalties should be draft picks or draft pick $. So no Yankees, but no Marlins either. f. (unrelated to the CBA, but) MLB teams should own their MiLB teams, so there is accountability and investment and ties to the community and investment by the community. The Braves do that right now, I think that the Cardinals do as well. The Twins own Elizabethton. I think that those will be fair and square for both players and clubs, other than the Yankees and Dodgers of the league.

The one question that needed to be asked, was not: Packer's fan? I think that Walker is at the Steve Balboni - Jay Buhner line. If his K rate continues to climb, if he does not take any walks, and his defense does not make any strides, he will be more like Balboni. If he makes a decent improvement in all will be more like Buhner. That's his ceiling. Not that bad. But we are not talking Sano here. We are not even talking Vargas, as a matter of fact (other than defense.)